Corona-virus Covid-19 - Predictions, Is it real disaster?

[Richie Rich]

I did a little survey for my self how is the corona-virus dangerous. So lets look at raw World Health Organization data and make your own opinion what is going on.

Rate of spreading before government take restrictions:

• - China 21.1.2020 .... 278 infected (WHO Situation Report 1)
• - China 28.1.2020 ... 4537 infected (WHO Situation Report 8) ... since then very hard quarantine started
• - Spread rate in China was 16x per week.

• - Italy 18.2.2020 .......... 3 infected (WHO Situation Report 29)
• - Italy 25.2.2020 ...... 229 infected (WHO Situation Report 36)
• - Italy 3.3.2020 ...... 2036 infected (WHO Situation Report 43)
• - Italy 10.3.2020 .... 9172 infected (WHO Situation Report 50)... since then quarantine started
• - Spread rate in Italy is 9.8x per week.

• - USA 3.3.2020 ............ 63 infected (WHO Situation Report 43)
• - USA 10.3.2020 ........ 472 infected (WHO Situation Report 50)
• - Spread rate in Italy is 7.5x per week.

• - Germany 3.3.2020 ....... 157 infected (WHO Situation Report 43)
• - Germany 10.3.2020 ... 1139 infected (WHO Situation Report 50)
• - Spread rate in Italy is 7.3x per week.

• - Spain 3.3.2020 ............ 114 infected (WHO Situation Report 43)
• - Spain 10.3.2020 ........ 1024 infected (WHO Situation Report 50)
• - Spread rate in Italy is 9.0x per week.

If the spreading rate will continue we can expect and predict these numbers:

• - USA 17.3.2020 prediction .............. 472 x 7.5 = 3536 infected (two days before US had over 1678 infected) .... looks it will match
• - Germany 17.3.2020 prediction .... 1139 x 7.3 = 8263 infected (two days before GER had over 3795 infected) .... looks rate will slow down to 5x
• - Spain 17.3.2020 prediction .......... 1024 x 9.0 = 9198 infected (two days before Spain had over 3795 infected) .... looks rate will slow down to 7x (after quarantine)

Lets look at quarantine effect:
China:

• - 28.1.2020 .... quarantine started ........ 4537 infected (+4259 per week) ....... 3.2 infected per million citizens (3.0 per week per million increase)
• - 18.2.2020 .... infection speed peak ... 72528 infected (+29820 per week) ... 50.8 infected per million citizens (20.88 per week per million increase)
• - 10.3.2020 .... quarantine won .......... 80924 infected (+620 per week) ........ 56.7 infected per million citizens (0.43 per week per million increase)

To sum up, very hard quarantine (industry shut down) in China:

• - took 6 weeks to start have a effect
• - inertia of infection is huge: 80924 / 4537 = 17.8x more infected than at quarantine beginning (as a result of 14 day virus incubation time)

Now compare countries:

• - China ........... 3.2 infected per million citizens (start of hard quarantine) .... real 81 048 infected .... 3204 deaths (4% death rate)
• - Italy ......... 152.1 infected per million citizens (start of hard quarantine) .... prediction 9172 x 17.8 = 163 000 infected + 4% death rate = 6500 deaths
• - USA ............. 5.1 infected per million citizens (no quarantine started yet) .... prediction 3536 x 17.8 = 62 000 infected + 4% death rate = 2500 deaths
• - Germany .... 45.7 infected per million citizens (no quarantine started yet) .... prediction 8263 x 17.8 = 147 000 infected + 4% death rate = 5800 deaths
• - Spain ........ 122.4 infected per million citizens (quarantine started) .............. prediction 8263 x 17.8 = 163 000 infected + 4% death rate = 6500 deaths

My conclusions:

• - Delay in reaction for one week results in 7 to 10 bigger numbers due to super high corona-virus spread rate.
• - Approximately 5-10% of infected needs lung ventilators to survive (worst case scenario is when hospitals are full then 10% of infected might die).
• - If actual number of infected is equal to number of lung ventilators available in hospitals then this country is on the edge of catastrophe. Death rate might jump higher (probably from 2.5% to 7.5%) due to after quarantine inertia 17x multiplied by avg number people needs ventilation 7.5% = 1.3 well it's little too late). Such a country needs hard quarantine ASAP.
• Delay of one week results in 7 - 10x more deaths.
• Delay of two weeks results in 50-100x more deaths. Fast reaction is crucial.
• European countries reacted way slower than China (by comparing rate infected per million) and will suffer from much higher economy crisis later on.
• USA is already reacting slower to start quarantine (China had 3.2 per million, USA 5.1 now) which will result in economy impact somewhere between Chinese and European.

I would be glad if somebody prove my calculations are wrong because these numbers are scary.
I hope this helps to avoid panic by taking it serious and not under estimating what is coming.

 

[Richie Rich]

Disaster is rising in US. Covid-19 is spreading exponencialy and even faster then my prediction.

My prediction was:
USA 17.3.2020 prediction .............. 472 x 7.5 = 3536 infected

Reality: 17.3.2020 ..... 5002 infected.
Thats 10.6x more than last week.
Infection density: 15.3 infected per million people.
I'm worried about US because China did shutdown and hard quarantine when they had only 3.2 inf per mllion.

Prediction for next week 24.3.2020:
5002 x 10.6 = 53 000 (IMHO probably between 45-53 thousands)
After start of quarantine USA will peak to 53000 x 17.8 = 943 000 total infected and 37 000 total deaths (mortaliry 4%).

For quarantine two weeks delayed, multiply everything by 10. That's 9 millions infected and 370 thousands deaths in total. However overloaded hospitals can lead to 8% mortality like in Italy and so resulting to 700 thousands deaths.

That's very bad.

 

[Mai72]

Disaster is rising in US. Covid-19 is spreading exponencialy and even faster then my prediction.

My prediction was:
USA 17.3.2020 prediction .............. 472 x 7.5 = 3536 infected

Reality: 17.3.2020 ..... 5002 infected.
Thats 10.6x more than last week.
Infection density: 15.3 infected per million people.
I'm worried about US because China did shutdown and hard quarantine when they had only 3.2 inf per mllion.

Prediction for next week 24.3.2020:
5002 x 10.6 = 53 000 (IMHO probably between 45-53 thousands)
After start of quarantine USA will peak to 53000 x 17.8 = 943 000 total infected and 37 000 total deaths (mortaliry 4%).

For quarantine two weeks delayed, multiply everything by 10. That's 9 millions infected and 370 thousands deaths in total. However overloaded hospitals can lead to 8% mortality like in Italy and so resulting to 700 thousands deaths.

That's very bad.

Wow. We need to take this more seriously. Not just at the state level, but at the federal level as well.

 

[CalebRockeT]

Michigan is being pretty proactive with mandatory shut downs and closures of a lot of public businesses, at least until April, as of now. Depending on the impact of these initial measures and how things develop, I wouldn't be shocked if more aggressive social distancing strategies are rolled out. I think it would be interesting if full-on mandatory quarantine is instituted for a length of time here in the mitt. Pretty interesting to see how the general public reacts to the situation day-to-day.

 

[Richie Rich]

Yes, please take it seriously because this new Coronavirus is not good:

• - it has 1000x more virus particles than SARS from 2003 so it spread at greater distance (4m/12ft)
• - it has lower mortality (4%) than 2003 SARS killer (10%) but thanks to special health care (lung ventilation or external blood oxygen enriching) which is very limited
• - in Italy with overloaded hospitals there is mortality up to 8% (this would mean 27 millions deaths in US if penetrates whole population fast)
• - illness is in 80% very mild form, 20% is hard form (from those 5-10% are critical and needs special equipment, ventilators etc.)
• - 80% of mild illness form (fever, similar to influenza)
• - 15% infected has very low symptoms (so not being tested)
• - 5% infected has no symptoms
• - incubation time is 3-14 days, but spreading virus about one day before symptoms like high temp appear
• - illness takes 7-14 days
• - after symptoms are gone and you feel OK... still spreading virus for days (one week?)
• - people with very low symptoms spreading virus during incubation (one day), illness (two weeks) and days after symptoms are gone... total 3 weeks without being tested (IMHO this is the reason why Chinese shut down quarantine worked well and everything else is only slowing it down)
• - it attacks primary lungs and cause permanent damage to it (for hard illness), secondary it attacks heart (permanent damage for heavy disease form survivals still unknown)
• - endangered are people with lower imunity and lung problems (old people, chemotherapy, smokers?)
• - you doesn't want to die due to corona-virus: fully conscious why choking to death due to heavy pneumonia and in total isolation from your family. That's sad what going on in Italy right now. Please everybody lets try to avoid this in other countries until we have a time.

If somebody find more exact data, please wright it here and I'm gonna update it.
The purpose is to provide accurate data to take adequate actions.
Europe is a bad example how we under estimated this disease.
I hope US and other coutries will not make same mistake when all data are available.
If China was able to stop it early, then most advanced countries can stop it early too.

@CalebRocteT: I spent two years in Michigan and it's beautifull state, especially Grand Haven area.

 

[Richie Rich]

Deleted.

 

[Mai72]

Yes, please take it seriously because this new Coronavirus is not good:

• - it has 1000x more virus particles than SARS from 2003 so it spread at greater distance (4m/12ft)
• - it has lower mortality (4%) than 2003 SARS killer (10%) but thanks to special health care (lung ventilation or external blood oxygen enriching) which is very limited
• - in Italy with overloaded hospitals there is mortality up to 8% (this would mean 27 millions deaths in US if penetrates whole population fast)
• - illness is in 80% very mild form, 20% is hard form (from those 5-10% are critical and needs special care)
• - 80% of mild illness form there is still unknown percentage of people which has almost no symptoms (so not being tested at all)
• - incubation time is 3-14 days, but spreading virus days before symptoms like high temp appear
• - illness takes 7-14 days
• - after symptoms are gone and you feel OK... still spreading virus for days (one week?)
• - people with very low symptoms spreading virus during incubation (week), illness (two weeks) and days after symptoms are gone... total 4 weeks without being tested (IMHO this is the reason why Chinese shut down quarantine worked well and everything else is only slowing it down)
• - it attacks primary lungs and cause permanent damage to it (for hard illness), secondary it attacks heart (permanent damage for heavy disease form survivals still unknown)
• - endangered are people with lower imunity and lung problems (old people, chemotherapy, smokers?)
• - you doesn't want to die due to corona-virus: fully conscious why choking to death due to heavy pneumonia and in total isolation from your family. That's sad what going on in Italy right now. Please everybody lets try to avoid this in other countries until we have a time.

If somebody find more exact data, please wright it here and I'm gonna update it.
The purpose is to provide accurate data to take adequate actions.
Europe is a bad example how we under estimated this disease.
I hope US and other coutries will not make same mistake when all data are available.
If China was able to stop it early, then most advanced countries can stop it early too.

@CalebRocteT: I spent two years in Michigan and it's beautifull state, especially Grand Haven area.

But the question is will this rear it's ugly head again once people fully go back to the way it was befiore the pandemic. Think about it. When people go back on crowded buses, trains, and into crowded places. I'm not that optimistic yet. We need to wait and see. Only one infected person can ruin this, and I'm sorry but I just don't trust China. Their economy is HURTING. They will silence this or lower the numbers if it gets out of control again. Those are my fears. And finally, are they really cracking down on those wet markets? I highly doubt it.

 

[Richie Rich]

My thought exactly. Will the virus truly be gone? How long before we are really certain that it's safe to go back to normal. It's true. All it takes is one infected person, and we will all start this shut down again.

The virus can be stopped. China example shown it's possible when you shut down economy for 6 weeks. No doubt China lost some economy profit however they're making much bigger profit now. China is now virus-free and all factories are running at max while rest of world is heavily restricted. Delivering medical material and corona-virus speed test into whole world China will make huge money and will enter into upcoming economy crisis in good position. It's pretty sad that Europe and USA fails in such a terrible way in compare to China.

Prediction for next week 24.3.2020:
5002 x 10.6 = 53 000 (IMHO probably between 45-53 thousands)
After start of quarantine USA will peak to 53000 x 17.8 = 943 000 total infected and 37 000 total deaths (mortaliry 4%).

Looks like prediction for USA will match sadly.
March 14 was officially 1 674 infected ... Report 54
March 17 was officially 3 503 infected ... Report 57
March 20 was officially 15 219 infected ... Report 61 .... (4.3x in only 3 days)
March 21 is unofficially 26 000 infected ...... 79 infected per million citizens (China started hard quarantine when 3.2 inf/mil)

Virus is spreading exponentially with base:
- with base: a = (15219/1674) ^ (1/7) = 1.37

So we can predict by calculation of exponential function:
- 4th day (March 21) ... y = 1674 * a ^x = 1.37^8 = 1674 * 12.4 = 20 700 infected
- 5th day (March 22) ... y = 1674 * a ^x = 1.37^9 = 1674 * 17.0 = 28 400 infected
- 6th day (March 23) ... y = 1674 * a ^x = 1.37^10 = 1674 * 23.3 = 39 000 infected
- 7th day (March 24) ... y = 1674 * a ^x = 1.37^11 = 1674 * 31.9 = 53 400 infected
- 14 th day (March 31) ... y = 1674 * a ^x = 1.37^18 = 1674 * 289 = 483 000 infected ()
...
- 21st day (April 7) ... y = 1674 * a ^x = 1.37^25 = 1674 * 2618 = 4 380 000 infected (unrestricted spread, restrictions will make it lower)
Italy has base 1.15 now so with restrictions similar to Italy prediction will be:
- 21st day (April 7) ... y = 483000 * a ^x = 483000* 1.15^7 = 483000 * 2.66 = 1 280 000 infected (51 000 deaths)
- 28th day (April 14) ... y = 483000 * a ^x = 483000*1.15^32 = 1674 * 7.08 = 3.4 millions infected (136 000 deaths)

Compare European numbers to Chinese with much more citizens (1400 millions citizens, 81 000 infected and 3300 deaths only).
Italy has 60 millions citizens, 47 000 infected and 4000 deaths.

 

[BonzaiDuck]

72 years old, mild COPD and high blood pressure resolved with medication.

I want to survive, and I want to outlive one person in particular. After he ( or It) is buried, I want to travel to the gravesite with a sledgehammer, a wooden stake, a colon ready to burst and a full bladder. The sledgehammer will have two jobs to do. first -- turn the headstone to gravel. Then, it's Anthony Hopkins as Dr. Van Helsing in "Bram Stoker's Dracula". Just normal operating procedure . . . The rest of it is just ingredient to a special soda of chocolate fudge ice-cream and ginger ale. That is -- something resembling those substances . . . .

And I want to take pictures that will go viral on the web before I'm arrested for vandalism and exposing myself!

Ritchie reminds me of Wilford Brimley's role in the first remake of "The Thing" (1980s). He's got all these statistics popping up on a TRS-80 computer, just like Rich.

But seriously -- Ritchie has done a great job with this. I suppose someone should help him validate the numbers.

And I'm going to take measures to build a better bio-hazard suit. Corona is scary. But I eventually have to go out in public to purchase necessaries for the fam-damn-ily.

Also interesting -- I was early in the practice of wearing a mask, and to have fun with my Clint Eastwood cowboy hat, I bought an assortment of oversized "Train-Man" bandanas in different colors. People at first reacted to me as a humorous fellow.

Now, they're all wearing masks behind the store counters, and they all look very grim . . .

 

[deadlyapp]

The virus can be stopped. China example shown it's possible when you shut down economy for 6 weeks. No doubt China lost some economy profit however they're making much bigger profit now. China is now virus-free and all factories are running at max while rest of world is heavily restricted. Delivering medical material and corona-virus speed test into whole world China will make huge money and will enter into upcoming economy crisis in good position. It's pretty sad that Europe and USA fails in such a terrible way in compare to China.



Looks like prediction for USA will match sadly.
March 14 was officially 1 674 infected ... Report 54
March 17 was officially 3 503 infected ... Report 57
March 20 was officially 15 219 infected ... Report 61 .... (4.3x in only 3 days)
March 21 is unofficially 26 000 infected ...... 79 infected per million citizens (China started hard quarantine when 3.2 inf/mil)

Virus is spreading exponentially with base:
- with base: a = (15219/1674) ^ (1/7) = 1.37

So we can predict by calculation of exponential function:
- 4th day (March 21) ... y = 1674 * a ^x = 1.37^8 = 1674 * 12.4 = 20 700 infected
- 5th day (March 22) ... y = 1674 * a ^x = 1.37^9 = 1674 * 17.0 = 28 400 infected
- 6th day (March 23) ... y = 1674 * a ^x = 1.37^10 = 1674 * 23.3 = 39 000 infected
- 7th day (March 24) ... y = 1674 * a ^x = 1.37^11 = 1674 * 31.9 = 53 400 infected
- 14 th day (March 31) ... y = 1674 * a ^x = 1.37^18 = 1674 * 289 = 483 000 infected ()
...
- 21st day (April 7) ... y = 1674 * a ^x = 1.37^25 = 1674 * 2618 = 4 380 000 infected (unrestricted spread, restrictions will make it lower)
Italy has base 1.15 now so with restrictions similar to Italy prediction will be:
- 21st day (April 7) ... y = 483000 * a ^x = 483000* 1.15^7 = 483000 * 2.66 = 1 280 000 infected (51 000 deaths)
- 28th day (April 14) ... y = 483000 * a ^x = 483000*1.15^32 = 1674 * 7.08 = 3.4 millions infected (136 000 deaths)

Compare European numbers to Chinese with much more citizens (1400 millions citizens, 81 000 infected and 3300 deaths only).
Italy has 60 millions citizens, 47 000 infected and 4000 deaths.

Barring the fact that the reporting is probably not actual numbers, your numbers don't appear to have panned out quite as expected.

 

[Charmonium]

Keep in mind that the more people who are infected and recover, the sooner herd immunity kicks in. From what I've, herd immunity can happen when between 1/3 and 2/3 of the population have developed antibodies.

The thing to worry about is how quickly you lose your immunity once you've been infected or vaccinated. That's unclear at this point but there are indications for some people, that might be a year or less.

The media has been reporting that a vaccine is 12-18 months away. That is grossly optimistic. Normal vaccine development is much longer. So the only hope of life going back to normal before that is to focus on developing herd immunity. And the only way to do that is to get as many people as possible infected.

But this is tough balancing act to perform. You don't want the virus to burn through the population all at one time since that's basically a death sentence for the people who will get severe infections. Health care system buckles and collapses. But you can't force people to live like ascetic monks for 2 or 3 years either.

So what I think you will see is this. Once the number of new cases peaks (not the rate of acceleration but the gross total) there will be a gradual relaxation of prophylactic measures like isolating and social distancing. If that's done right, it will hopefully result in the stabilization of the number of new cases at a level the healthcare system can handle. If it's not done right, then we'll quickly see a second peak in cases that might be much worse than the first.

 

[Richie Rich]

Keep in mind that the more people who are infected and recover, the sooner herd immunity kicks in. From what I've, herd immunity can happen when between 1/3 and 2/3 of the population have developed antibodies.

The thing to worry about is how quickly you lose your immunity once you've been infected or vaccinated. That's unclear at this point but there are indications for some people, that might be a year or less.

If you are talking about 1/3 of US citizens, that's roughly 100 millions infected ...... and with 4% death rate it is about 4 millions deaths.

Compare countries:

• China: 1400 millions citizens and only 3,351 deaths....... resulting in 2.4 deaths per million
• US: 330 millions citizens and huge 20,444 deaths........... resulting in 61.9 deaths per million .... that's 26x times more deaths than China already. And China stopped that virus spreading and US numbers are still rising pretty fast. That's a shame for western civilization because Europe is the same.

Regarding Economy hit:

• There are 45 millions US citizens in retirement receiving Social Security pensions (avg 1500$/month => 67 billions $/month => 810 billions$ / year)
• 1% dead old retired people means 4.5 million deaths (that about the 1/3 herd immunity assumptions).... that's 8.1 billion$ .... multiply by 10 years those people would live.... and as result we have 81 billions$ saved (multiple NASA budget, NASA 2019 budget was 22 billion$).
• Looks like there are bigger benefits (in long term) from virus spreading than its elimination.

Regarding immunity:

• there are many cases when people get infected by Civid-19 again. So immunity is still big question as we don't have enough data
• longer virus spreads the higher possibility to mute (developed vaccine might fail)
• there were some cases in South Korea that people get sick again without being infected by anybody. Virus re-activation is possible. This would be really big problem.

So we can predict by calculation of exponential function:

• - 14 th day (March 31) ... y = 1674 * a ^x = 1.37^18 = 1674 * 289 = 483 000 infected ........ reality 141 000 (exponencial base decreased significantly down to 1.19 which is thanks to restrictions)
• - April 7th .... reality 333,811 (exponencial base decreased down to 1.13 )
• - April 14th ... reality 550,000? (exponencial base decreased down to 1.07 )

New Prediction:

• - April 21st ... prediction infected 724,000 (exponencial base predicted 1.04 )
• - April 28th ... prediction infected 1,018,000 (exponencial base predicted 1.03 )
• - May 5th ..... prediction infected 1,170,000 (exponencial base predicted 1.02 )

 

[Richie Rich]

/deleted/

 

[lucaswatson982]

Yes it is, because it has spoiled a lot of lives and still it is spreading and spreading......

 

[Sgt. York]

It's a disaster because some people are learning they can make more money staying home and sitting on their asses than they can going to work.

 

[Muse]

My thought exactly. Will the virus truly be gone? How long before we are really certain that it's safe to go back to normal. It's true. All it takes is one infected person, and we will all start this shut down again.

The only way we put this behind us is with great vaccines. Otherwise, absent herd immunity from ~70+% getting it (and retaining immunity, hold your breath on that one!) it's a continuing epidemiological nightmare.

 

[mike8675309]

Note that there is no certainty that herd immunity is even possible. Anecdotally it appears that it should be but the studies are not complete yet.
But we know that the only solution here is to let the virus run its course for now. If we don't have enough ICU beds by now we never will.

 

[Muse]

Note that there is no certainty that herd immunity is even possible. Anecdotally it appears that it should be but the studies are not complete yet.
But we know that the only solution here is to let the virus run its course for now. If we don't have enough ICU beds by now we never will.

Thoroughly uninformed opinion there. Just a recipe for disaster.

 

[mike8675309]

Thoroughly uninformed opinion there. Just a recipe for disaster.

Lol... it's an opinion yes, but it is thoroughly informed. Feel free to point to a single study that states surviving a COVID-19 infection results in immunity. No one is saying such an immunity is assured... yet. As with all things COVID, we learn more every moment. My point is that relying on facts not present is not a safe thing to do.

 

[Muse]

Lol... it's an opinion yes, but it is thoroughly informed. Feel free to point to a single study that states surviving a COVID-19 infection results in immunity. No one is saying such an immunity is assured... yet. As with all things COVID, we learn more every moment. My point is that relying on facts not present is not a safe thing to do.

You said:

Note that there is no certainty that herd immunity is even possible. Anecdotally it appears that it should be but the studies are not complete yet.
But we know that the only solution here is to let the virus run its course for now. If we don't have enough ICU beds by now we never will.

"Let the virus run it's course for now"??? That's not what we're doing and for very good reasons. If we ignore it, the ICU's will be overwhelmed in a few weeks and our health care workers will be decimated, emotionally, physically, and a lot of them will pass through the morgues.

Right, herd immunity may never happen. It's theoretically possible that any immunity to this virus will prove transitory and no viable practical vaccine will emerge. That it will mutate and bite our ass as hard as ever every couple months. In that case you may as well either resign yourself to self isolating or kiss your ass goodbye right now.

 

[Torn Mind]

Pandemics have happened before. The truly bold think that bucking the previous solutions and simply doing things normally would actually make for better results. Tell that to the victims of the plague, TB, etc. New York City is the gold standard of failure, with the mayor--a Democrat, mind you--telling people to live normally....yeah....until they couldn't because the system got overwhelmed .

The word quarantine was literally born out of that plague that ran wild in the Middle Ages.

 

[Torn Mind]

The only way we put this behind us is with great vaccines. Otherwise, absent herd immunity from ~70+% getting it (and retaining immunity, hold your breath on that one!) it's a continuing epidemiological nightmare.

A vaccine will take about 5 years or more to get done. This virus is rife with potential complications because it is so haphazard in symptoms. Thus, it is requires keeping a open eye for even one subject with bizarre corner cases.

By the time 5 years have passed, the most vulnerable will be all already dead and the virus will fizzle as it slaughters the children who have the same genetic vulnerabilities as the mostly olderish adults who have dropped of the face of the planet right now.

The one unique thing about this new pestilence is that there is no universal acceptance that it is one, unlike every other major disease that has caused massive trouble to humans in the past. Since that is the case, a part of me wants a full, unbridled reopening just to prove the point that those people are truly fools.

 

[mike8675309]

You said:
"Let the virus run it's course for now"??? That's not what we're doing and for very good reasons. If we ignore it, the ICU's will be overwhelmed in a few weeks and our health care workers will be decimated, emotionally, physically, and a lot of them will pass through the morgues.

Right, herd immunity may never happen. It's theoretically possible that any immunity to this virus will prove transitory and no viable practical vaccine will emerge. That it will mutate and bite our ass as hard as ever every couple months. In that case you may as well either resign yourself to self isolating or kiss your ass goodbye right now.

I don't know about your state, but in Minnesota they had us all shelter in home March 27 as they built up ICU beds across the state taking over large state buildings and repurposing them.
This work is now done now so as to prevent the overwhelm of them. They are currently removing restrictions in an orderly way to slowly move things back with modifications as they move towards opening things up. I wouldn't expect all restrictions to be removed until 2021. But in the end, we can't hide from viruses forever. More and more corona viruses will continue to show up in humans as long as we continue to use animals for food and other materials.

 

[Torn Mind]

I don't know about your state, but in Minnesota they had us all shelter in home March 27 as they built up ICU beds across the state taking over large state buildings and repurposing them.
This work is now done now so as to prevent the overwhelm of them. They are currently removing restrictions in an orderly way to slowly move things back with modifications as they move towards opening things up. I wouldn't expect all restrictions to be removed until 2021. But in the end, we can't hide from viruses forever. More and more corona viruses will continue to show up in humans as long as we continue to use animals for food and other materials.

There is nothing self-evident that it was the animals that did it...and if it was really the animals, the chain should have been traced further back to their caves and their surrounding locales, which, by the way, aren't nearby.

If a court of law requires two independent witness to reach a standard of clear and convincing evidence, the wet market theory hasn't met it. The only animal with such confirmation is the hedgehog, which is not a bat or the supposed pangolin. In fact, it is entirely irrelevant that cheetahs and other strange creatures are there at all if no bats were there.

 

[hardhat]

There is nothing self-evident that it was the animals that did it...and if it was really the animals, the chain should have been traced further back to their caves and their surrounding locales, which, by the way, aren't nearby.

If a court of law requires two independent witness to reach a standard of clear and convincing evidence, the wet market theory hasn't met it. The only animal with such confirmation is the hedgehog, which is not a bat or the supposed pangolin. In fact, it is entirely irrelevant that cheetahs and other strange creatures are there at all if no bats were there.

Here are two articles summarizing research from multiple studies of the genetic makeup and probable origin of COVID-19. They both draw the conclusion that the virus' probable method of transmission to humans was zoonotic transfer from an animal in China, most likely a bat. Both reject the notion of human development.

A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin - Nature

Characterization of full-length genome sequences from patients infected with a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) shows that the sequences are nearly identical and indicates that the virus is related to a bat coronavirus.

www.nature.com

A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China - Nature

Phylogenetic and metagenomic analyses of the complete viral genome of a new coronavirus from the family Coronaviridae reveal that the virus is closely related to a group of SARS-like coronaviruses found in bats in China.

www.nature.com

This is a forum. An opportunity to provide useful information to others. We need to base our judgements on the best information available to us, especially under the current circumstances.