Contagion spreading among the vaccinated

[fskimospy]

Wow, let me repeat this one more time I guess: a vaccine that is 90% effective at reducing infection will NOT halt a quickly mutating virus in a population anymore. This is so widespread already, almost all of the final 1/3rd of Americans who haven't been infected will be exposed to it, even if we vaccinate everyone. For you to start taking about MEASLES again is now bordering on ridiculous. You cannot compare those two.

That’s not what you said, and I quoted you directly. Also, the Pfizer vaccine is over a year old and according to NEJM remains highly effective.

Look, what you said is wrong. If you want mature conversation admit it. If you can’t, you’re just here to fight.

 

[MtnMan]

Wrong how? I already said even at 90% effectiveness, and I promise you that number will go down with future variants, the suggestion that we can eradicate this virus is foolish at best and disingenuous at worst. That's BEEN my one and only point and I haven't heard a single argument that would disprove that.

So what? Just roll over and die because it's not 100% effective?

You know, people also die with their seat belt on also... so stop putting them in cars and stop installing airbags because they are not 100% effective either?

 

[nakedfrog]

Well, these experts go on a multitude of platforms to get a big a reach as possible.

No beef there, I've just adjusted my expectations to "Joe Rogan watcher/listener" levels.

 

[eikelbijter]

Joe Rogan? Okay, now things are making more sense.

So easy for you to dismiss someone by association, huh?

Trust me, a guy like Osterholm doesn't bullshit. And when he gets 2 hours to talk freely, he's gonna say more of what he thinks than on some 30 second TV clip.

Just to show how ignorant your dismissal is, I don't believe what Joe Rogan believes; not even close. His idea of nutrition for instance is completely ludicrous. But you what what's great about him? He's not corrupted, at least yet. He lets EVERYBODY talk, for a LONG time. Not little soundbits. He's INTERESTED in most. He calls himself a moron.

Just because he talks to Alex Jones, it doesn't mean he AGREES with him. Not at all. Personally, I find it eminently important to once in a while listen to the crazy ones, just to know what the hell they're thinking. I'll scream at the TV, LITERALLY, but I'll watch Fox News once in a while. Because I don't want to have an opinion about something I KNOW NOTHING ABOUT...

 

[cytg111]

Trust me, I thought about it before. But think about this: the typical flu shot costs between 5 and 30 dollars. It needs to be administered so let's just say $20. If we give that to every American, it would cost $600 million. It would prevent anywhere from 30 to 80 procent of deaths from the flu, which can be as few as 5000 to perhaps 40000. How many poor people's lives would be saved by 600 million dollars in Africa?

Oh man, you had to say Africa. That opens Pandora's box of geopolitics and everything that comes with it. I am in Scandinavia, but I'd have to agree, you should take a look at how that money is best used in a cost benefit perspective, but *within* your own borders for starters, you are not ready to play the worlds EMT. Yet.

 

[ch33zw1z]

Oh man, you had to say Africa. That opens Pandora's box of geopolitics and everything that comes with it. I am in Scandinavia, but I'd have to agree, you should take a look at how that money is best used in a cost benefit perspective, but *within* your own borders for starters, you are not ready to play the worlds EMT. Yet.

It's strawmen and red herrings all the way down.

 

[cytg111]

No beef there, I've just adjusted my expectations to "Joe Rogan watcher/listener" levels.

Rogan is a multifaced-something, but he do get some interesting people on there some times .. I dont listen to Rogan for Rogan, but cause he has a special guest I'd like to hear.

 

[nakedfrog]

So easy for you to dismiss someone by association, huh?

Trust me, a guy like Osterholm doesn't bullshit. And when he gets 2 hours to talk freely, he's gonna say more of what he thinks than on some 30 second TV clip.

Just to show how ignorant your dismissal is, I don't believe what Joe Rogan believes; not even close. His idea of nutrition for instance is completely ludicrous. But you what what's great about him? He's not corrupted, at least yet. He lets EVERYBODY talk, for a LONG time. Not little soundbits. He's INTERESTED in most. He calls himself a moron.

Just because he talks to Alex Jones, it doesn't mean he AGREES with him. Not at all. Personally, I find it eminently important to once in a while listen to the crazy ones, just to know what the hell they're thinking. I'll scream at the TV, LITERALLY, but I'll watch Fox News once in a while. Because I don't want to have an opinion about something I KNOW NOTHING ABOUT...

Just being someone who partakes of the JRE isn't enough for me to discard someone's opinion, but that in conjunction with... oh, everything else you've said in this thread, informs me of how valuable your thoughts and input are. Which is to say that combined with $2.21, they'll get me a double cheeseburger at McDonald's.

 

[eikelbijter]

So what? Just roll over and die because it's not 100% effective?

You know, people also die with their seat belt on also... so stop putting them in cars and stop installing airbags because they are not 100% effective either?

"Roll over"? WHAT are you talking about.

But if by that you mean resume living freely, without irrational fear, than yes.

If I follow your argument, why don't we all wear motorcycle helmets while driving cars? MANY lives would be saved every year.

The answer I think is because we have to take REASONABLE precautions. Extending your life by not living is not worth it. AT THIS POINT, anything but N95 is virtue signaling masterpiece theater., or a DESPERATE attempt that will turn out to have been futile.

 

[eikelbijter]

Just being someone who partakes of the JRE isn't enough for me to discard someone's opinion, but that in conjunction with... oh, everything else you've said in this thread, informs me of how valuable your thoughts and input are. Which is to say that combined with $2.21, they'll get me a double cheeseburger at McDonald's.

Classy!

Had to come back and edit this. I figured you had contributed to this discussion more than just showing your disdain for Rogan, but you DIDN'T do anything else! It's just too rich for words....

 

[cytg111]

It's strawmen and red herrings all the way down.

How much insulin could you buy for 600 million and how many lives saved would that translate into?

 

[eikelbijter]

Oh man, you had to say Africa. That opens Pandora's box of geopolitics and everything that comes with it. I am in Scandinavia, but I'd have to agree, you should take a look at how that money is best used in a cost benefit perspective, but *within* your own borders for starters, you are not ready to play the worlds EMT. Yet.

Except that it's OVER in the US, everybody that WANTED a vaccine got it! You can go right now to the supermarket and get it for free.

Yet, STILL we are trying to FORCE everyone to get it, even those who are immune from natural infection! And in the name of "not being selfish". Do you get where I'm coming from now?

 

[eikelbijter]

How much insulin could you buy for 600 million and how many lives saved would that translate into?

BINGO! We have a winner here.

Listen man, there are families with kids living in tents around the corner from my house, and all over this country.... just saying...

 

[desy]

So let me ask you this: are you now going to call people who don't take the flu vaccine selfish?

And what's more, are we now going to deny health insurance to snowboarders who break a leg?

I have always called people who don't take a flu vaccine selfish so no change there. If you are able you should to the benefit of society.
Now behavior can determine what kind of insurance you get, underwriters figure out smokers, thrill seekers, etc either pay higher premiums or get less benefit so its already built into the system. When I was a skydiver my membership into our club covered insurance due to the activity that normally isn't covered.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

@eikelbijter off topic question. Do you like or watch anime?

 

[ch33zw1z]

BINGO! We have a winner here.

Listen man, there are families with kids living in tents around the corner from my house, and all over this country.... just saying...

I mean, invite them in....

 

[ch33zw1z]

How much insulin could you buy for 600 million and how many lives saved would that translate into?

How many bootstraps could they buy? How many bootstraps can we ship to other countries?

 

[nakedfrog]

Except that it's OVER in the US, everybody that WANTED a vaccine got it! You can go right now to the supermarket and get it for free.

Yet, STILL we are trying to FORCE everyone to get it, even those who are immune from natural infection! And in the name of "not being selfish". Do you get where I'm coming from now?

Yep, we should let people die of a preventable disease, because ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[cytg111]

Except that it's OVER in the US, everybody that WANTED a vaccine got it! You can go right now to the supermarket and get it for free.

Yet, STILL we are trying to FORCE everyone to get it, even those who are immune from natural infection! And in the name of "not being selfish". Do you get where I'm coming from now?

Doses going into the bin when they could have been in arms elsewhere is obviously a darned waste..

 

[cytg111]

How many bootstraps could they buy? How many bootstraps can we ship to other countries?

I honestly dont get it.

 

[ch33zw1z]

I honestly dont get it.

The possibilities are endless. The misdirections will continue. All because people choose to be ignorant.

 

[eikelbijter]

I honestly dont get it.

This "boot strap" thing is an american expression. It's used to "lift yourself up", meaning get yourself out of poverty or a bad situation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in this case he means we can't save everyone. It's sometimes used quite ironically by people calling OTHERS selfish. ;-)

 

[eikelbijter]

Yep, we should let people die of a preventable disease, because ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

We should let people die in poverty in the richest country in the world because ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[cytg111]

The possibilities are endless. The misdirections will continue. All because people choose to be ignorant.

Any rational human being will want to get the best price for any given product, so I assume this is not where the objection is at. What do you feel is a misdirection here?

edit : Oh, bootstraps, got it. Yea. I feel like if you were to go full world EMT instead of world police, it would be a glorious 2 years before the MAGAts would roll over everything and turn you into The Handmaids Tale season 5.

 

[mect]

Effectiveness will most certainly go down, and at some point there will be a variant against which the vaccines offer virtually 0% protection. I will even go further, ON RECORD BTW, that there is a big chance that we will get variants against which natural infection DOES provide immunity but the vaccine doesn't, and there's even a smaller chance of one the other way around. The actual immune response between vaccine and natural infection is measurably different, in a few ways that are fascinating.

As far as masks go: of course any time you put something in the path of something else, it's going to affect it. In the case of Covid aerosols, the difference can be anywhere from 0% (mask on the chin) to some number based on how you define "work". If you're talking a quick visit to a well ventilated big store, you could get close to 99% prevention of a sick person infecting someone else. When you're talking cloth masks, homemade stuff, at a small Starbucks, you're gonna be way lower. When I saw some of my colleagues (musicians) in a small studio for 6 hours together with mask on, I would say you're in the single digits.

Just to show you guys I'm not crazy, I've had arguments with a friend in Holland FOR masks, because there the infection rate had been SO low, that trying to buy time to get everybody who wants vaccinated, WAS worth it. And in the end, so far that has panned out. In my opinion, the best way to estimate infection rates in a country, assuming it delivers trustworthy numbers, is to look at deaths per million. Los Angeles has 2.6x the deaths that Holland does.

The bottom line is, masks can work on flattening a curve, if everybody would wear N95, properly put on and off, it could be quite effective. What we did in LA was NOT effective; we wore masks for 17 months and more than 2/3 got infected anyway. This is what people mean when they say "masks don't work".

And one more time, a flattened curve representing exponential growth will STILL get to 100% just a little later. If we needed time to vaccinate more people, you might have a point, but in my opinion it's time to get over it.

You are correct that given our reluctance to vaccinate that this will never go away entirely, however that doesn't mean that we will constantly have hundreds of thousands of deaths a year. The more people we get vaccinated the less suffering and death our nation will endure.

That being said, there are many problems with your arguments.

1) You are assuming natural infection provides superior protection compared to the vaccine. While there is considerable uncertainty in this area, most studies have found the vaccine to offer superior protection.

2) You are assuming a variant will come around that the vaccines will be ineffective against, but this is pure conjecture, particularly considering the possibility of booster shots.

3) You continue to ignore the primary purpose of masks; to prevent an infected person from spreading the disease, not to protect the wearer. And cloth masks can be highly effective at this as long as they are triple layer. A colleague of mine did an outreach activity demonstrating exactly how this works (you can try this at home to!). Put on a single layer cloth mask, and you can easily blow out a candle. On the other hand, put on a triple layer cloth mask, and it becomes virtually impossible to blow the candle out. This is because the triple layer cloth mask (the standard for cloth masks for Covid), does not allow the aerosol to easily transport.

4) You continue to assume that an exponential growth curve that is dependent on person to person infection events will remain exponential if the probability of infection were cut by 90%. This is not the case. You don't just multiply the the previous curve by 0.1 to get the new curve. When you cut infection rates by 90%, you no longer get exponential growth, you get decline (assuming 100% vaccination rate). This is because you cut off propagation events that are what lead to exponential growth. Exponential growth occurs when each event leads to a larger number of events. So for example, consider with no vaccine an infected person passes the virus on to two other people. With the vaccine, 90% of those transmissions no longer happen. This brings the average transmission below 1 person, leading to decline instead of growth. This is why even without the vaccine we would see flare ups with exponential growth which would then decline once the virus was contained.

Most experts no longer think we will achieve herd immunity not because a 90% effective vaccine is insufficient, but because it appears we won't be able to get a large enough portion of the population vaccinated.