Commercial aviation under threat from man-portable air defense systems

[theeedude]

Which means... exactly nothing. The point is X people die out of Y total population. Just because not everyone dies from any variety of causes is utterly irrelevant.

Which means... exactly nothing. Exactly.

 

[shira]

No it's not, you are misreading the chart.

All the stats are based on Death_by_cause_in_year_X/total_deaths_in_year_X. They are aggregate chances of death by a given cause.

That's how all these stats are calculated, it's stupidly obvious. If you think all 300 million people have a 1 in 7 chance of dying from a heart attack or cancer every single year then you need a lesson in common sense.

Perhaps what further clarify this is a link to the full chart that shows the total probability for all causes is 1 in 1. Unless you want to argue with me that we all have a 100% chance of dying from something every single year. http://www.nsc.org/nsc_library/Documents/Odds of Dying From Graphic 2013 ed.pdf

Actually, we're both wrong.

If the chart were what you say, then the sum of all the odds would be 1. But the sum is clearly significantly less than 3/7. So this can't be the fraction of deaths from various causes. But it also can't be the odds of a person dying in a given year from a given cause (because, as you point out, a lot fewer than 1/7th of the population die of a heart attack every year).

And the chart cannot be the lifetime odds of dying of a particular cause, because - again - the sum of the odds would be 1.

So, frankly, I don't know what the chart is listing.

 

[irishScott]

Which means... exactly nothing. Exactly.

Good. I was right.

 

[DrPizza]

4 were lost in one day and air travel seems to be doing fine. Bad things happen but the desire to get out and travel is greater than the remote fear that something would happen.

But, airliners were altered to eliminate the threat - passengers with box cutters can no longer take control of an airliner.

If a terrorist organization shot one down in the U.S., and said, "we have many more ready to fire," it would be the end of air travel.

 

[BoberFett]

Threat detection and countermeasure systems will just become standard fare on airliners.

 

[Meghan54]

National "Saftey" Council = some dipsh1t in his bedroom who can't even use spell check, let alone work a calculator.

You really need to start researching before making completely ignorant and stupid comments.....your ass is showing, or maybe that's what you intended or just reside in that space. Dunno.

Just an FYI for you, to help take that foot out your ass.

The National Safety Council (NSC) is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, nongovernmental public service organization dedicated to protecting life and promoting health in the United States of America. Headquartered in Itasca, Illinois, NSC is a member organization, founded in 1913 and granted a Congressional charter in 1953. Members include more than 55,000 businesses, labor organizations, schools, public agencies, private groups and individuals. NSC is nonpolitical and does not contribute to or support any political party or candidate.

From Wiki, as good a place as any for that info. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Safety_Council


Guess the guy in the basement, who established it in 1913 (didn't know they had internet back then), has been rather busy to garner a Congressional charter 60 years ago and have over 55K businesses as members. Damn he's good. 😉

 

[feralkid]

Unfortunately that entire stat sheet is a pile of horsesh1t. A 1 in 340 chance of dying by "Assault by firearm"?

Given that there are ~11,000 firearms homicides per year, and ~320,000,000 people in the US, it's many many many orders of magnitude lower than 1 in 340.

It's the odds of dying from any given cause in your lifetime, not in any given year.

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

4 were lost in one day and air travel seems to be doing fine. Bad things happen but the desire to get out and travel is greater than the remote fear that something would happen.

As already noted, something has been done to help mitigate such an attack in the future.

Even flying now, if something were to happen, people "feel" like they'd at least be able to tackle someone or stop them. With a SAM, it's completely out of their control. Too many people too scared to fly and the airlines wouldn't be able to stay afloat.

Sure there could be a retrofit of countermeasures, but would it be enough to convince people?

 

[trenchfoot]

I guess what worries me most about this topic is when the profit motive becomes a higher priority than the safety and comfort of passengers.

But then, to some extent, isn't that how it's always been?

This is one industry where I hope the Conservative ideology of deregulating everything they can think of for a better return on investment does not come into play.

 

[BoberFett]

I guess what worries me most about this topic is when the profit motive becomes a higher priority than the safety and comfort of passengers.

But then, to some extent, isn't that how it's always been?

This is one industry where I hope the Conservative ideology of deregulating everything they can think of for a better return on investment does not come into play.

You think planes being shot down is profitable for the airlines?

 

[HumblePie]

Uhh, even that 11,000 number for homicides by guns is off. What I mean is the chart breaks down Assault by Firearms, and those that commit suicide separately. Most of the 11,000 deaths by firearms in the US annually is suicides and not from assaults. There is also quite a few of justified self defense deaths as well in that total number.

 

[PokerGuy]

Threat detection and countermeasure systems will just become standard fare on airliners.

That's what I was thinking, companies that make such countermeasures (electronic, or things like flares, chaffs etc) stand to make a mint off this spread of fairly sophisticated anti aircraft SAMs. At some point most commercial airliners will have some of that stuff.

 

[trenchfoot]

You think planes being shot down is profitable for the airlines?

Well, at least it's profitable for the folks who make them. 😉 Other than that, I can't possibly see how you could make a comment like that based on what I mentioned in the post you quoted.

For one, the question you're asking is ludicrous to begin with, and second, the leap of logic you committed to arrive at your point needs a whole lot of 'splain'in for me to address with the consideration it's due. 🙂

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

That's what I was thinking, companies that make such countermeasures (electronic, or things like flares, chaffs etc) stand to make a mint off this spread of fairly sophisticated anti aircraft SAMs. At some point most commercial airliners will have some of that stuff.

Until direct guided are readily available. Countermeasures don't work on them. You just steer the joystick and use the little TV. Made for hitting fast moving, small jets. A slow moving, flying bus shouldn't be a problem.

 

[cabri]

Threat detection and countermeasure systems will just become standard fare on airliners.

That's what I was thinking, companies that make such countermeasures (electronic, or things like flares, chaffs etc) stand to make a mint off this spread of fairly sophisticated anti aircraft SAMs. At some point most commercial airliners will have some of that stuff.

In flight testing
Northrup
Elbit

 

[BoberFett]

Well, at least it's profitable for the folks who make them. 😉 Other than that, I can't possibly see how you could make a comment like that based on what I mentioned in the post you quoted.

For one, the question you're asking is ludicrous to begin with, and second, the leap of logic you committed to arrive at your point needs a whole lot of 'splain'in for me to address with the consideration it's due. 🙂

Because you're going on about profits and deregulation, as though that has something to do with this topic. If you can explain a valid link, I'll retract my statement.

 

[glenn1]

Uhh, even that 11,000 number for homicides by guns is off. What I mean is the chart breaks down Assault by Firearms, and those that commit suicide separately. Most of the 11,000 deaths by firearms in the US annually is suicides and not from assaults. There is also quite a few of justified self defense deaths as well in that total number.

And many of the remainder deaths via gun murder are inner city gang member/drug dealer youths, i.e. non regretted attrition.

 

[BoberFett]

I could be wrong, but I thought the 11K number already excluded suicides. Just from memory, total gun deaths including suicide is closer to 30K. Could be wrong. Either way, you're far more likely to die from poor health than you are violent crime, or even more rare, a terrorist attack.

The US response to terrorism is truly ridiculous.

 

[PokerGuy]

Until direct guided are readily available. Countermeasures don't work on them.

True, but that's another level of sophistication, it filters out another level of evil-doers who might not have access to any direct guided stuff.

I'm actually surprised we haven't seen any attacks on planes using shoulder mounted low altitude weapons, I'm sure it's not for lack of trying by the bad guys.

 

[rudder]

One US commercial airliner shot down by a MANPADS and I don't think the economy would recover for decades. It would put an end to air travel in the US. No vacation spots, shipping, etc.

Even if it's still safer than any other travel, there wouldn't be enough people willing to fly to keep the airlines in business.

And my concern would be one slipping through the border.

Northrop Grumman has already developed an anti-missile system for commercial aircraft. Just no one has ordered it installed yet. It certainly would be a large cost to outfit aircraft all over the world and it would be a sad day to see airliners having to use that technology.

But I suppose that day is coming.

 

[HumblePie]

And many of the remainder deaths via gun murder are inner city gang member/drug dealer youths

This part of the statement is also another qualifier. Which makes changes of gun deaths pretty damn far down low on the spectrum for the average law abiding citizen that isn't likely to commit suicide using one.

 

[Dman8777]

When we give resistance fighters weapons with electronics in them, they should have a a functional period of 1 year programmed in and then stop working. Problem solved!

 

[rommelrommel]

Northrop Grumman has already developed an anti-missile system for commercial aircraft. Just no one has ordered it installed yet. It certainly would be a large cost to outfit aircraft all over the world and it would be a sad day to see airliners having to use that technology.

But I suppose that day is coming.

El Al already equips their craft with flares/chaff.

 

[CLite]

I could be wrong, but I thought the 11K number already excluded suicides. Just from memory, total gun deaths including suicide is closer to 30K. Could be wrong.

Yep, HumblePie is not working with correct numbers.

There are 11,000 firearm homicides a year. (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm)
There are 19,000 firearm suicides a year. (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/suicide.htm)
There are a total of 30k firearm deaths a year.

If you read the CDC they also have other categories like accidental discharge of firearm (606 deaths), undetermined intent use of firearm (252), legal intervention (412). So I'm quite sure they wouldn't wrap legal defense under the 11k homicide figure.

It's pretty hilarious how this thread got polluted by gun guys freaking out about an accurate and unbiased graph.

 

[irishScott]

Yep, HumblePie is not working with correct numbers.

There are 11,000 firearm homicides a year. (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm)
There are 19,000 firearm suicides a year. (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/suicide.htm)
There are a total of 30k firearm deaths a year.

If you read the CDC they also have other categories like accidental discharge of firearm (606 deaths), undetermined intent use of firearm (252), legal intervention (412). So I'm quite sure they wouldn't wrap legal defense under the 11k homicide figure.

It's pretty hilarious how this thread got polluted by gun guys freaking out about an accurate and unbiased graph.

Uh, I'd just like to point out it depends on which numbers you use. According to the FBI there were 8,855 firearm homicides in 2012. I'm not sure of the reason for the discrepancy.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/uc...able_8_murder_victims_by_weapon_2008-2012.xls