CNN Electoral Map

[JTsyo]

CNN Electoral Map

Seems winning Florida would almost win Obama the election. But another thing that stood out was that the Democrats win almost all the big states other than Texas. With the growing Hispanic population there Texas might start moving into a swing state from a Red state.

 

[xBiffx]

Still looks like Ohio according to that map.

NV - D
CO - R
IA - D
WI - D
NH - R (doesn't matter either way)
VA - R
FL - R

OH -?

259 - D / 261 - R

 

[uclaLabrat]

RCP polling avg has VA slight obama...if the ground game turns out or rural VA has trouble making it to the polls due to the storm, it goes blue, and game over.

Edit: Whoops, still polling half a point to Romney in VA on RCP. 538 has it going blue. I think CO will go blue as well.

 

[xBiffx]

RCP polling avg has VA slight obama...if the ground game turns out or rural VA has trouble making it to the polls due to the storm, it goes blue, and game over.

Yeah, I take solace in knowing that VA is east coast time and if that turns blue its over before it starts. If not, the waiting game ensues.

 

[Farang]

CNN Electoral Map

Seems winning Florida would almost win Obama the election. But another thing that stood out was that the Democrats win almost all the big states other than Texas. With the growing Hispanic population there Texas might start moving into a swing state from a Red state.

Obama absolutely wins if he gets Florida. First, because it very likely means he also got VA and a bunch of other states, and also because Nevada isn't really a toss-up. Obama will win there (he's never trailed and they have a superior infrastructure there)

 

[uclaLabrat]

Yeah, I take solace in knowing that VA is east coast time and if that turns blue its over before it starts. If not, the waiting game ensues.

Possible, but if it does go blue, it quite likely could be in the range where a recount is necessary, and cue 2000, unless FL or OH are convincingly blue.

 

[Farang]

Still looks like Ohio according to that map.

NV - D
CO - R
IA - D
WI -D
NH - R (doesn't matter either way)
VA - R
FL - R

OH -?

259 - D / 261 - R

I'd add I think you're making some assumptions there in CO and NH. That combination replaces Ohio in your scenario to give Obama the win

 

[EagleKeeper]

RCP polling avg has VA slight obama...if the ground game turns out or rural VA has trouble making it to the polls due to the storm, it goes blue, and game over.

Edit: Whoops, still polling half a point to Romney in VA on RCP. 538 has it going blue. I think CO will go blue as well.

I mailed in my absentee CO ballot. Properly color coded

 

[classy]

Given the last 72-96 hours, I think Obama walks away handily. Given the respect publicly from Christie and Bloomberg I think tilts VA and Fla his way. And the job numbers will further cause people who may have voted for Romney to reconsider and stick with what we have.

 

[xBiffx]

I'd add I think you're making some assumptions there in CO and NH. That combination replaces Ohio in your scenario to give Obama the win

NH hardly matters in most scenarios. Early voting in CO doesn't show I am making any assumptions. But Tuesday is when it matters so....you could be right.

 

[Farang]

NH hardly matters in most scenarios. Early voting in CO doesn't show I am making any assumptions. But Tuesday is when it matters so....you could be right.

I disagree.. if Ohio is #1 priority for Romney, Obama's two most plausible scenarios as a backup to losing Ohio are going to be (CO + NH) or VA. Both of these have different demographics than OH so a loss there would not mean he couldn't win those.

But I agree NH hardly matters because Romney isn't winning Ohio. It basically comes down to whether or not he can pick off PA or some other hail mary scenario

 

[jstern01]

Problem for Mitt is that Obama has too many paths to getting to 271 open. Simply snagging Ohio/WI/NV and he wins. Grab WI/IA/NV/VA and its done. If Obama wins Ohio, WI and one other (except NH), he wins. Simply put Mitts needs Ohio, failing that he is needs to sweep almost all the toss up states, highly unlikely.

 

[ElFenix]

With the growing Hispanic population there Texas might start moving into a swing state from a Red state.

the texas democratic party is completely incompetent. so, maybe in 40 years hispanics will control the state demographically, but that doesn't mean democrats.

 

[woolfe9999]

CNN Electoral Map

Seems winning Florida would almost win Obama the election. But another thing that stood out was that the Democrats win almost all the big states other than Texas. With the growing Hispanic population there Texas might start moving into a swing state from a Red state.

I don't understand how CNN has NC listed as red lean and WI listed as toss-up. Not one single poll aggregator has Obama up by less in WI than he is down in NC. They should either both be called toss-ups, or both be called as leaning in opposite directions.

 

[uclaLabrat]

I disagree.. if Ohio is #1 priority for Romney, Obama's two most plausible scenarios as a backup to losing Ohio are going to be (CO + NH) or VA. Both of these have different demographics than OH so a loss there would not mean he couldn't win those.

But I agree NH hardly matters because Romney isn't winning Ohio. It basically comes down to whether or not he can pick off PA or some other hail mary scenario

I keep telling myself it's just stupid paranoia, but the fact that Romney's son does have investments in Hart intercivic (who made the OH polling machines) AND the fact they produce no paper trail does give me pause. I can't believe that situation hasn't been fixed, and I was positive in 2004 that Rove stole OH from Kerry.

 

[Blackjack200]

I disagree.. if Ohio is #1 priority for Romney, Obama's two most plausible scenarios as a backup to losing Ohio are going to be (CO + NH) or VA. Both of these have different demographics than OH so a loss there would not mean he couldn't win those.

But I agree NH hardly matters because Romney isn't winning Ohio. It basically comes down to whether or not he can pick off PA or some other hail mary scenario

He's a lot more likely to win Ohio than he is to win PA.

I don't understand how CNN has NC listed as red lean and WI listed as toss-up. Not one single poll aggregator has Obama up by less in WI than he is down in NC. They should either both be called toss-ups, or both be called as leaning in opposite directions.

They're simply wrong about Wisconsin, it's safe Obama.

 

[Wreckem]

the texas democratic party is completely incompetent. so, maybe in 40 years hispanics will control the state demographically, but that doesn't mean democrats.

Hispanics are on track to be a majority by 2030. They will be a plurality by 2020(possibly 2018). Texas will eventually go blue again. It will take time to get rid of the gerrymandering that under represents Hispanics in Texas. Texas will be a purple state by the 2030 census. And an outright blue state by the 2040 census.

 

[ElFenix]

Hispanics are on track to be a majority by 2030. They will be a plurarlity by 2020(possibly 2018). Texas will eventually go blue again. It will take time to get rid of the gerrymandering that under represents Hispanics in Texas. Texas will be a purple state by 2030. And an outright blue state by 2040.

yes, because in 30 years it's not possible for the parties to have shifted and evolved again. of course hispanics vote democrat. always have and always will.

thinking like that is why the democrats here haven't run a competitive state wide candidate in 20 years.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

RCP polling avg has VA slight obama...if the ground game turns out or rural VA has trouble making it to the polls due to the storm, it goes blue, and game over.

Edit: Whoops, still polling half a point to Romney in VA on RCP. 538 has it going blue. I think CO will go blue as well.

Don't worry those rural voters in Virginia will vote come hell or high water.

 

[First]

nm

 

[Wreckem]

yes, because in 30 years it's not possible for the parties to have shifted and evolved again. of course hispanics vote democrat. always have and always will.

thinking like that is why the democrats here haven't run a competitive state wide candidate in 20 years.

The majority of Texas' majority Hispanic districts are are held by Democrats.

The reason why they haven't won a state wide race is because the Hispanic population boom hasn't had to much effect but it will have a greater effect in the next decade and onward. The other problem is voter participation among Hispanics.

Texas will eventually flip. Even if there is a 2/3 1/3 democratic/republican split of Hispanic voters, Texas will flip when Hispanics become an outright majority.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Hispanics are on track to be a majority by 2030. They will be a plurality by 2020(possibly 2018). Texas will eventually go blue again. It will take time to get rid of the gerrymandering that under represents Hispanics in Texas. Texas will be a purple state by the 2030 census. And an outright blue state by the 2040 census.

I like the way everyone thinks Hispanics in Texas are in the Democrats pockets. All the Hispanics I work with have already voted for Romney in the past two weeks of early voting. In fact all but one voted straight Republican ticket.

 

[Wreckem]

I like the way everyone thinks Hispanics in Texas are in the Democrats pockets. All the Hispanics I work with have already voted for Romney in the past two weeks of early voting. In fact all but one voted straight Republican ticket.

The majority of Hispanics in South Texas, and the major metro areas break Democratic. The majority of Hispanics in rural areas in West, Central, and East tend to break Republican.

The Hispanic vote splits around 60% dem to 40% republican right now, but only 30% of voters in Texas are hispanic. In 2033, Hispanics will be ~50% or more of the voting population, and the majority of them will be young Hispanics that heavily favor Democrats. The 2034 and 2036 elections will be interesting. I am betting it will break 66 to 33 those years because of the younger Hispanic vote. That should be enough to put democrats back in power.

Republicans, strike that, Rick Perry, his political stooges, and religious knuckle-draggers have driven Texas into the ground over the last decade. We are close to last in most major quantifiable state metrics. Not to mention, its not Republican leadership that has helped Texas economically. Texas is doing so-so economically right now because of the Oil and Gas Boom. Texas would be substaintially worse off economically right now if oil and gas wasn't booming.

 

[Jaskalas]

Given the last 72-96 hours, I think Obama walks away handily. Given the respect publicly from Christie and Bloomberg I think tilts VA and Fla his way. And the job numbers will further cause people who may have voted for Romney to reconsider and stick with what we have.

Staten Island would like a word with you, if they weren't busy freezing and starving and scavenging for toilet paper.

Some Drudge headlines:

Drivers Waiting 6 Hours For Gas in NYC...
Tempers Rise in Wake of Storm...
'Finding bodies left and right'...
'They forgot about us'...
CHUCK SCHUMER CONFRONTED 'We Are Gonna Die!'
CUOMO: 'No reason to panic'...
Utility workers pelted with eggs...
Misery...
Mile-long lines, price hits $6...
Residents Furious RED CROSS Offering Cookies & Hot Chocolate, Not Blankets Or Clothes...
Two massive generators power NY media, not masses...
Staten Islanders Plead for Help: 'We Need Food'...
'Please don't leave us'...
VIDEO: Stranded New Yorkers Defecating in Apartment Buildings...
DIRE...

These folks being left behind is a breaking story today, will boil over the weekend, and may be the last major news story of this election on Monday.

 

[Farang]

Staten Island would like a word with you, if they weren't busy freezing and starving and scavenging for toilet paper.

Some Drudge headlines:
These folks being left behind is a breaking story today, will boil over the weekend, and may be the last major news story of this election on Monday.

Does Obama control the weather now? I thought we were supposed to make fun of him for stopping the rising oceans