Climate Research Unit hacked, damning evidence of data manipulation

Page 4 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

Sacrilege

Senior member
Sep 6, 2007
647
0
0
I encourage everyone worried about climate change to spend their money on environmentally friendly products and services, reduce their consumption and enjoyment of products and services, and buy carbon offsets to balance the emissions generated by their animal companions and domestic partners.

Remember, you must sacrifice, reduce your standard of living, and suffer. The faster you can degenerate to a third world lifestyle, the better off we will all be.

Meanwhile, I will buy whatever I want, do whatever I want and never give a care in the world about emissions or pollution. Suckers.
 

GTaudiophile

Lifer
Oct 24, 2000
29,767
33
81
I don't care whether GW is a farce or not. For me, it all boils down the the fact that we need to be more responsible with our resources. We need to focus on maximizing output, decreasing wastefulness, and reuse and recycle as much as we can. If doing these things along with replacing fossil fuels with renewable and sustainable energies means cleaner air and water and less blood shed over resources, then I am all for it.

We Americans need to come to grips with the fact that they are wasteful hoarders and this needs to change. And will change. But in end they will be happy they did.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Hey, wow,I agree with Dave. :D

I disagree that it is a surprise though. Some people have some silly notion in their head that scientists don't lie or studies are never biased, and that scientific research is always honest. The people doing research out there are just like the people on this forum, no better, no different- they really want to be RIGHT! I suppose there might be some out there who have not "chosen a side" and are actually doing good research... it is hard to do good research if you are biased/already chosen a side.

It just depends on where the paycheck is coming from.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
I encourage everyone worried about climate change to spend their money on environmentally friendly products and services, reduce their consumption and enjoyment of products and services, and buy carbon offsets to balance the emissions generated by their animal companions and domestic partners.

Remember, you must sacrifice, reduce your standard of living, and suffer. The faster you can degenerate to a third world lifestyle, the better off we will all be.

Meanwhile, I will buy whatever I want, do whatever I want and never give a care in the world about emissions or pollution. Suckers.

Not true. You will suffer too because you will be forced to buy certain products like the TV's in California. You think that will only apply to Californians? That new law will flow East faster than you can say 1 Mississippi.
 

IGBT

Lifer
Jul 16, 2001
17,976
141
106
I encourage everyone worried about climate change to spend their money on environmentally friendly products and services, reduce their consumption and enjoyment of products and services, and buy carbon offsets to balance the emissions generated by their animal companions and domestic partners.

Remember, you must sacrifice, reduce your standard of living, and suffer. The faster you can degenerate to a third world lifestyle, the better off we will all be.

Meanwhile, I will buy whatever I want, do whatever I want and never give a care in the world about emissions or pollution. Suckers.


..it's the carbon-CON.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,330
126
Not true. You will suffer too because you will be forced to buy certain products like the TV's in California. You think that will only apply to Californians? That new law will flow East faster than you can say 1 Mississippi.

Show and tell my friend. Commercial buildings is where the energy savings are at but I have heard little about enacting some very common sense policies that actually pay for themselves over 5-10 years AND save a lot more energy.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
We all know, at least those of us honest with ourselves, that only by very heavy government legislation will the population actually make a truly meaningful change in how it consumes and degenerates the environment. I'm not saying it's right or not, but if you look at Denmark for example where a $20k car can cost $70k you see what I'm "driving" at. Going Green by having your credit card statements emailed to you and putting in CFL bulbs is downright fvcking pathetic.
 

spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
65,469
5
76
The story is finally picking up steam at all the major news outlets. Here's just a sample of the egregious behavior. Just google "climate research unit" news to see all the articles (and the spin).

“I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.”

“I can’t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow – even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is !”

“If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the UK, I think I’ll delete the file rather than send to anyone. Does your similar act in the US force you to respond to enquiries within 20 days? - our does ! The UK works on precedents, so the first request will test it. We also have a data protection act, which I will hide behind. Tom Wigley has sent me a worried email when he heard about it - thought people could ask him for his model code. He has retired officially from UEA so he can hide behind that.”

“I did get an email from the FOI person here early yesterday to tell me I shouldn’t be deleting emails”

“IPCC is an international organization, so is above any national FOI. Even if UEA holds anything about IPCC, we are not obliged to pass it on, …”

“Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4?
Keith will do likewise. He’s not in at the moment - minor family crisis. Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don’t have his new email address. We will be getting Caspar to do likewise.”


“..If anything, I would like to see the climate change happen, so the science could be proved right, regardless of the consequences. This isn’t being political, it is being selfish.”
 
Last edited:

IGBT

Lifer
Jul 16, 2001
17,976
141
106
The story is finally picking up steam at all the major news outlets. Here's just a sample of the egregious behavior. Just google "climate research unit" news to see all the articles (and the spin).


who ever the "whistle blower" is may be waiting in the wings with more evidence. If Bernie Madoff can go to jail for what he did, these "scientists" and willing accomplices ,algore(al gore) should be in a cell next to Madoff.
 

GeezerMan

Platinum Member
Jan 28, 2005
2,146
26
91
who ever the "whistle blower" is may be waiting in the wings with more evidence. If Bernie Madoff can go to jail for what he did, these "scientists" and willing accomplices ,algore(al gore) should be in a cell next to Madoff.

I say gas them with CO2....
 

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
9,500
6
81
I may be an ignorant hack, but I know that if you have several sets of proxy data you can't mix and match parts of the sets to get the results you want. Using that technique you can get pretty much any result you want simply by selecting the parts of each set that fit your preconceived and desired result. In any given location and for any given proxy, local conditions play a strong part, often stronger than overall climate. Narrow tree rings and low carbon uptake may indicate cold weather, but it may also indicate a drought or other localized conditions (such as volcanic activity) that inhibit growth. Coral may grow more slowly when it's below its preferred zone, but it also grows more slowly when it's above its preferred zone, when water is stained, or when particular parasites or toxins are present. Ice cores are very poorly understood; the complicated and not necessarily linear cycle from snow to firn to ice is poorly understood, not to mention the effect of extreme pressure on trapped gas bubbles over time. Attempts to correlate ice cores to known historical conditions have been largely unsuccessful as well.

So now you have three sets of proxy data, but none of these can be anything like continuous or complete enough to be representative. Instead we have limited numbers of samples from scattered locations. Many of these samples must be thrown out - tree rings get labeled as drought years, ice cores get labeled as "disturbed", coral growth gets labeled as atypical. With enough samples, one could begin to build climate histories from each set and correlate them against each other. But if allowed to select from among the sets and the samples, such a construct becomes literally meaningless because different selection sets and samples will yield wildly different climate histories. (Else there would be no need to switch from one set to another, as the proxies would match.)

As far as politics goes, when Hansen was screaming that he was being censured he was giving two and three interviews a day warning of dire catastrophe and telling us what we had to do to avoid catastrophe. He is still not only telling us what he thinks the climate is doing (and as we've seen, manipulating data to support his belief) but constantly telling us what we have to do to avoid catastrophe. You can argue that he is right and is only doing this for our best interests, because he's so smart and we're so dumb, but you can't argue that he's not trying to control society without looking like an idiot. The entire CAGW movement spends much more time telling us what we HAVE to do than it does correctly predicting anything. (Oddly enough, what we have to do to combat catastrophic anthropogenic global warming is exactly what we were told to do to combat catastrophic anthropogenic global cooling.) Having bought into a man-made ice age, I'm going to be a bit more discerning this time around.

So far climate prediction theory is a half-step above "Give me your daughter or I'll make the moon disappear next Thursday night." It's a great predictor of things that have already happened, not so great for predicting things yet to occur - although it's pretty good at claiming to have predicted them afterward.

The point is: If you know that one of your proxies is yielding errors, you have two choices: You can include the proxy (which will skew your otherwise valid results) or you can exclude the proxy (which leaves out a portion of the full data collection, but - on average - won't skew the result).

For example: Suppose you know that temperatures based on tree rings for a given time period have an error band of from -0.7 to + 1.5 degrees, with an average error of +0.6 degrees (this knowledge is based on areas where both direct measurements and tree-rings data is available). You don't have direct measurements in some area - all you have is tree-ring widths (and, obviously, you don't know what the specific error is for tree rings in that region). What do you do? Do you just use the tree ring data and absorb the unknown error in your overall average? Or do you just not include that region in your calculations of the global trend? The latter approach will - on average - produce a more accurate result, and it sounds like that's what the excerpted portion of the emails is referring to.
 

PJABBER

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
4,822
0
0
The point is: If you know that one of your proxies is yielding errors, you have two choices: You can include the proxy (which will skew your otherwise valid results) or you can exclude the proxy (which leaves out a portion of the full data collection, but - on average - won't skew the result).

For example: Suppose you know that temperatures based on tree rings for a given time period have an error band of from -0.7 to + 1.5 degrees, with an average error of +0.6 degrees (this knowledge is based on areas where both direct measurements and tree-rings data is available). You don't have direct measurements in some area - all you have is tree-ring widths (and, obviously, you don't know what the specific error is for tree rings in that region). What do you do? Do you just use the tree ring data and absorb the unknown error in your overall average? Or do you just not include that region in your calculations of the global trend? The latter approach will - on average - produce a more accurate result, and it sounds like that's what the excerpted portion of the emails is referring to.

What I find funny is how all of the cockroaches are scurrying about with defending the indefensible. It ain't Kafka but sure does seem like the closest thing to it.

A better approach, ye old ACC advocates, would be to just come clean on ALL of the garbage science that you have hoisted on the world, tender immediate resignations and take your well deserved place in the unemployment lines. Just like we do in business, where there ain't no such thing as tenure.

We definitely need to know who in power knew what and when they knew it. I personally would start with a class action suit (loving it now that there is not going to be any tort reform! Go Dems!) naming everyone who gained materially by the deception. That would clear things up faster than counting tree rings or melting ice cores.
 

mect

Platinum Member
Jan 5, 2004
2,424
1,637
136
The point is: If you know that one of your proxies is yielding errors, you have two choices: You can include the proxy (which will skew your otherwise valid results) or you can exclude the proxy (which leaves out a portion of the full data collection, but - on average - won't skew the result).

For example: Suppose you know that temperatures based on tree rings for a given time period have an error band of from -0.7 to + 1.5 degrees, with an average error of +0.6 degrees (this knowledge is based on areas where both direct measurements and tree-rings data is available). You don't have direct measurements in some area - all you have is tree-ring widths (and, obviously, you don't know what the specific error is for tree rings in that region). What do you do? Do you just use the tree ring data and absorb the unknown error in your overall average? Or do you just not include that region in your calculations of the global trend? The latter approach will - on average - produce a more accurate result, and it sounds like that's what the excerpted portion of the emails is referring to.

This is fine, as long as it is presented as such. I'm unfamiliar with the original publications, so I don't know if it has been. The problem in science is not with using an inappropriate model (that is what the peer review process is for), but rather not fully disclosing the methods. As long as these different models are being disclosed, and the authors are addressing which ones are being used, then there is no problem from an ethical standpoint. Really, the only thing I have seen thus far that is troubling is the scientists urging each other to delete emails. That is scary.
 

PJABBER

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
4,822
0
0
http://www.youtube.com/homeproject

They just present the environmental destruction

You should be able to make an unbiased conclusion that we are fucking up this earth at undeniably rapid pace. We are destroying things that can never be undone.

That is a very pretty film but it would be a lot better if it were presented without narration, to avoid the cloying political correctness.

I suggest that if you are interested in parables that you check out a real classic, "Animal Farm."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZldlyeR8DU
 
Sep 12, 2004
16,852
59
86
http://www.youtube.com/homeproject

They just present the environmental destruction

You should be able to make an unbiased conclusion that we are fucking up this earth at undeniably rapid pace. We are destroying things that can never be undone.
Holy cow. What an egocentric viewpoint. We are not "fucking up this earth." If we are fucking up anything at all it's our own comfort zone, unless you believe that the Earth's climate has been static and perfect for human habitation since its inception. You likely already know, however, that @ %99.9 of all species that have ever lived on Earth have long perished, and that happened before man came along.

The Earth itself has been through far, far worse than even the most drastic forecasts the AGW alarmists can muster and has managed to come through just fine.
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,688
126
The story is finally picking up steam at all the major news outlets. Here's just a sample of the egregious behavior. Just google "climate research unit" news to see all the articles (and the spin).

What garbage. Take 60MB of email, have a biased organization pull 3 or 4 provactative snips completely out of context and that's your best evidence?

If anything, this whole episode proves that the climate change consiracy that the Limbaugh/Beck/Hannity contingent claim is widespread and pervasive doesn't even exist.
 

IGBT

Lifer
Jul 16, 2001
17,976
141
106
http://www.youtube.com/homeproject

They just present the environmental destruction

You should be able to make an unbiased conclusion that we are fucking up this earth at undeniably rapid pace. We are destroying things that can never be undone.


the media action line of the" big lie willing accomplices" designed to promote a eco-KOOK political agenda at any cost.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Holy cow. What an egocentric viewpoint. We are not "fucking up this earth." If we are fucking up anything at all it's our own comfort zone, unless you believe that the Earth's climate has been static and perfect for human habitation since its inception. You likely already know, however, that @ %99.9 of all species that have ever lived on Earth have long perished, and that happened before man came along.

The Earth itself has been through far, far worse than even the most drastic forecasts the AGW alarmists can muster and has managed to come through just fine.
And then China came along. These pics are just fvcking sad:

http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazing-pictures-pollution-in-china/
 

NeoV

Diamond Member
Apr 18, 2000
9,504
2
81
TLC - you sound like a smart guy sometimes, so I'm going to assume you know what a variable is.

Yes, we get your stance - the earth has been through much worse, blah blah blah.

That said - can you really not see the difference here, with a new variable in the equation - IE 5 Billion plus people and the modernized industry that goes with it?

These are not things the earth has dealt with before - and there is no magic power of the earth's climate to automatically clean the mess up.


As for this hack - damning evidence - really? Damning? I'll leave the comments on this to someone a lot smarter than me - read a good response to all of this here

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/#more-1853
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
The point is: If you know that one of your proxies is yielding errors, you have two choices: You can include the proxy (which will skew your otherwise valid results) or you can exclude the proxy (which leaves out a portion of the full data collection, but - on average - won't skew the result).

For example: Suppose you know that temperatures based on tree rings for a given time period have an error band of from -0.7 to + 1.5 degrees, with an average error of +0.6 degrees (this knowledge is based on areas where both direct measurements and tree-rings data is available). You don't have direct measurements in some area - all you have is tree-ring widths (and, obviously, you don't know what the specific error is for tree rings in that region). What do you do? Do you just use the tree ring data and absorb the unknown error in your overall average? Or do you just not include that region in your calculations of the global trend? The latter approach will - on average - produce a more accurate result, and it sounds like that's what the excerpted portion of the emails is referring to.

You're missing my point. We only "know" one set of proxy data give a more "accurate" result than another because of one of two things - either we have direct, measurable data, or we have a result in mind. If it's the former, then we know the proxy data in question are in fact not accurate over the range where verification is possible; only a fool would use proxy data that are not accurate over the range where verification is possible and assume they have value outside of that range. If the latter, these proxy data add absolutely no validity to our argument because we have knowingly altered our proxy set to get that correlation. Using proxy data for anything is risky and any data discarded MUST be discarded for procedural reasons, without regards to their value, for the simple reason that to do otherwise is to define the results by one's expectations, thus shaping the data to one's expectations. In the case of Mann et all they discard proxy data that verifiably do not support their conclusions yet make the assertion that where the data cannot be tested, they are accurate.

The only acceptable use of proxy data, ever, is when one can demonstrate good accuracy with verifiable fact; then one can reasonably propose that the data might be consistent beyond the verifiable range and thus make an acceptable proxy for an educated guess at data that are unobtainable. In this case proxy data are being used where one can demonstrate no accuracy whatsoever with verifiable fact. In my opinion that's not a "trick", it's complete scientific fraud.