I predict it'll be worse than that, there'll be so much suffering across the planet that it'll suffice as an ample distraction for folks. Water conflicts, illegal border crossings, a billion or two climate refugees... we won't have time to think about who caused climate change, we'll be chasing who caused whatever specific recent catastrophe until we're at 3c and everything's on fire. The fact that nobody's really identified the Arab spring and Syrian civil war as being climate change related just reinforces that point.
Wind and solar installations are exploding in the United States. Moar moar moar moar, but still not fast enough.
If all else fails, solar geoengineering?
If all else fails, solar geoengineering?
Possibly, but humans are notoriously bad at escalation. Odds are very good if we start getting into much larger ideas like blocking solar light, we'll make things a lot worse.
I'm suddenly reminded of the Futurama episode about the trash rocket, but imagine if we could use space junk to block just enough of the sunlight to cool just enough for us to get renewables and other tech to where we can scrub enough of the greenhouse gases to put us back on a reasonable course. (I'm guessing the emissions from the rockets needed to get that space junk up there exceed its usefulness for such, so don't take that too seriously.)
We'd create a kessler syndrome pretty much immediately, preventing us from launching anything into orbit for centuries. Would pretty well seal the deal for humanity's adventures in the cosmos. For what it's worth, that's likely to happen if we try any solar geoengineering as well.
nickqt
Diamond Member
- Jan 15, 2015
- 7,544
- 7,688
- 136
Catabolic collapse is coming. It's not just climate change. There are limits to growth, and we're about to hit those limits in a number of ways over the next few decades. Ocean acidification. Sea life collapse. Peak phosphorus. Insect collapse. Topsoil collapse. Microbiotic collapse. Methane release. Blue Ocean Event. Etc., etc.
We need oil to maintain any semblance of our current society and economy. It's not the Holocene or the Anthropocene, it's the Petrolocene. Without oil, our societies and economies collapse. We can't just wind turbine and solar panel our way past the fact that we use 100+ million barrels of oil per day to just barely keep up, and it's more than just energy production or gas in cars. It's plastics, it's fertilizers, it's in everything. Go take a walk around your house and see what isn't made of plastic, and now come up with something that can replace the plastic if we want to maintain our current way of life.
And remember that any "renewable energy" costs non-renewable resources until we're at 100% renewable energy, so you can't just technology your way into saying we'll just stack wind turbines on top of solar panels everywhere and green energy everything by 2025. It doesn't work like that.
What we're going to see is the climate continuing to go to shit, while more and more governments say that they're going to start doing something about it in, about 5-10 years...roughly every 5-10 years, while continuing to strive for increased GDP which is just a receipt for the amount of resources we've permanently used and burned up, and an accounting of the waste we've dumped into our soil, water, and air.
The society and economies you look around and see today will not exist in the same way 50 years or so from now. The ultra wealthy who've bought all the land and stocked their bunkers and bought security and serfs will be just fine. Everyone else is going to be fighting for the crumbs, almost like we're already doing now, just with a much worse climate and way more at stake.
And that's barring large black swan events from really fucking things up. The Republican Death Cult is currently trying to kill as many Americans as possible with a contagious disease that has a vaccine. Wars, dramatic abrupt increases in climate change, etc., can speed up the current timeline and trajectory. As-is, we're sure as shit not slowing anything down at all.
This isn't about giving up entirely, or not trying to mitigate collapse. But any belief that we can keep up what we've been doing for the past 200 years for another 50 without the catabolic collapse required to maintain basic life-sustaining systems is deluding themselves. Ignoring where we're headed because it's mentally uncomfortable is just about as bad as believing some new technology is going to save us. Cutting your shower time from 8 minutes to 3 minutes, and making sure you cut up your plastic 6 pack ring before dumping into the ocean isn't going to make a difference if our entire society/economy is specifically designed around burning down resources and dumping the garbage into the soil, water and air.
As a species, we probably don't have the long-term wherewithal to do what needs to be done. Managing resources for the long-term that we might not benefit from ourselves, maintaining infrastructure required to help people that aren't us, etc., basically gets the minimum funding by one political party, while being denounced as Communism and Tyranny by the other political party. Now imagine the massive challenges we face as a species that are occurring RIGHT NOW and how we can't even maintain what we've already built because some ultra wealthy shitbag might not maintain an extra zero at the end of the money they and their family has hoarded from burning down the planet.
The writing is on the wall. Don't give up, prepare. Get physically healthy, stop killing yourself, get your finances straight, involve yourself in your community, and learn some useful skills. Netflixing and Amazon Priming luxury carabiners from Sweden aren't going to be around forever.
We need oil to maintain any semblance of our current society and economy. It's not the Holocene or the Anthropocene, it's the Petrolocene. Without oil, our societies and economies collapse. We can't just wind turbine and solar panel our way past the fact that we use 100+ million barrels of oil per day to just barely keep up, and it's more than just energy production or gas in cars. It's plastics, it's fertilizers, it's in everything. Go take a walk around your house and see what isn't made of plastic, and now come up with something that can replace the plastic if we want to maintain our current way of life.
And remember that any "renewable energy" costs non-renewable resources until we're at 100% renewable energy, so you can't just technology your way into saying we'll just stack wind turbines on top of solar panels everywhere and green energy everything by 2025. It doesn't work like that.
What we're going to see is the climate continuing to go to shit, while more and more governments say that they're going to start doing something about it in, about 5-10 years...roughly every 5-10 years, while continuing to strive for increased GDP which is just a receipt for the amount of resources we've permanently used and burned up, and an accounting of the waste we've dumped into our soil, water, and air.
The society and economies you look around and see today will not exist in the same way 50 years or so from now. The ultra wealthy who've bought all the land and stocked their bunkers and bought security and serfs will be just fine. Everyone else is going to be fighting for the crumbs, almost like we're already doing now, just with a much worse climate and way more at stake.
And that's barring large black swan events from really fucking things up. The Republican Death Cult is currently trying to kill as many Americans as possible with a contagious disease that has a vaccine. Wars, dramatic abrupt increases in climate change, etc., can speed up the current timeline and trajectory. As-is, we're sure as shit not slowing anything down at all.
This isn't about giving up entirely, or not trying to mitigate collapse. But any belief that we can keep up what we've been doing for the past 200 years for another 50 without the catabolic collapse required to maintain basic life-sustaining systems is deluding themselves. Ignoring where we're headed because it's mentally uncomfortable is just about as bad as believing some new technology is going to save us. Cutting your shower time from 8 minutes to 3 minutes, and making sure you cut up your plastic 6 pack ring before dumping into the ocean isn't going to make a difference if our entire society/economy is specifically designed around burning down resources and dumping the garbage into the soil, water and air.
As a species, we probably don't have the long-term wherewithal to do what needs to be done. Managing resources for the long-term that we might not benefit from ourselves, maintaining infrastructure required to help people that aren't us, etc., basically gets the minimum funding by one political party, while being denounced as Communism and Tyranny by the other political party. Now imagine the massive challenges we face as a species that are occurring RIGHT NOW and how we can't even maintain what we've already built because some ultra wealthy shitbag might not maintain an extra zero at the end of the money they and their family has hoarded from burning down the planet.
The writing is on the wall. Don't give up, prepare. Get physically healthy, stop killing yourself, get your finances straight, involve yourself in your community, and learn some useful skills. Netflixing and Amazon Priming luxury carabiners from Sweden aren't going to be around forever.
Jaskalas
Lifer
- Jun 23, 2004
- 33,446
- 7,508
- 136
"Just fine" is an interesting word for a post apocalyptic world.
What about all the nuclear reactors that we let melt down?
When a society collapses, no one will be there to shut them down.
nickqt
Diamond Member
- Jan 15, 2015
- 7,544
- 7,688
- 136
It's possible that abrupt chaos occurs and shit hits the fan in the manner you're thinking. Coronal mass ejections / EMPs that destroy the electric grid of regions/countries/the world, nuclear blasts, pneumonic plague-like disease, etc. Mass chaos/die offs where we don't have the "right" people to shut off reactors/handle waste, etc.
I think that catabolic collapse is far more likely. Societies will stop funding advanced "1st world" types of things, in order to keep basic systems running. As societies start catabolizing themselves, don't expect functional democracy, expect dictatorships and foreign wars over resources. This leads to less resources for things like new school buildings and new school books, research and development, etc. It leads to further crumbling infrastructure that doesn't suit the needs of maintaining basic systems like water, food/transport, electric. It's all a positive feedback system, so the more you catabolize now, the less you have later to catabolize. I imagine that nuclear reactors will get switched off and waste disposed of as we switch back to coal or oil and even wood power, until the electric grid itself becomes too much to support due to limited resources and skilled manpower.
So, "just fine" is relative. They'll be much better off than the poor huddled masses when you can no longer get fruits, vegetables and meats just by driving a few miles to a store, as they'll have stocks of foods and the manpower to create and run little bunkers for themselves. They'll have electric generators and inverters, gasoline, diesel, propane stores, and of course armed security to protect all of the land they gobbled up with their hoarded wealth. And I'm sure they'll offer the starving peasants the job of farming the land they own for a small cut of the yield.
As the
I mean, we've seen this story before, and if you look around without being blinded by all the flashing lights and crushed candies, you can see where we're heading.
You and I might not live long enough to see it, but there are people alive today who are going to get to experience it. Sure, we could mitigate by managing our remaining resources intelligently so collapse is much slower and perhaps some miracle like Cold Fusion comes along to save us from ourselves...but counting on it is not a very smart move. Expect more "we're going to start to make small changes here and there that won't affect the rate at which we're burning down the planet...in 5-10 years". Expect more, "well, we're already at X.X degrees warming now, but to really prevent the apocalypse we just have to not get to Y.Y degrees warming, so let's keep turning oil into water bottles and fluorescent taco holders".
Or, I'm just paranoid, and Elon Musk, his SpaceTesla™, and wind turbines built into solar panels attached to wind turbines are going to save us from a planet we are literally setting on fire for short-term quarterly profit reports and amazing shareholder returns. I'm sure there are some people who can argue that smart contracts ran on Ethereum 2.0 will also help prevent climate change, ocean acidification, and top soil depletion, but I digress.
This cartoon shows it concisely, in my opinion.
Look at the silver lining, if you're under 40, you probably don't have to worry about dying from cancer. If you're under 30, there's probably not much point in saving for retirement either.
Fanatical Meat
Lifer
- Feb 4, 2009
- 34,581
- 15,795
- 136
Feels like the news is finally covering climate change more consistently. Constant record-breaking weather events, while deadly and horrific, make great headlines and wake people up.
Hopefully budget reconciliation can give us some small glimmers of hope in the short term, but I'm beginning to think I really would be in favor of a climate lockdown. It's really absurd that, just to go the grocery store 1 mile away, I have to haul thousands of pounds of steal and fiberglass down a road that absorbs tons of solar radiation, and then that road disperses the radiation as heat back into the atmosphere 24/7, along with lots of additional pollutants that get released into the air!
Maybe it's time to go subterranean. I could dig a cave.
Hopefully budget reconciliation can give us some small glimmers of hope in the short term, but I'm beginning to think I really would be in favor of a climate lockdown. It's really absurd that, just to go the grocery store 1 mile away, I have to haul thousands of pounds of steal and fiberglass down a road that absorbs tons of solar radiation, and then that road disperses the radiation as heat back into the atmosphere 24/7, along with lots of additional pollutants that get released into the air!
Maybe it's time to go subterranean. I could dig a cave.
hal2kilo
Lifer
- Feb 24, 2009
- 23,442
- 10,333
- 136
Just make everyone switch back to water. Everything will go back to normal. (Idiocracy ref.)
soundforbjt
Lifer
- Feb 15, 2002
- 17,787
- 6,035
- 136
woolfe9998
Lifer
- Apr 8, 2013
- 16,188
- 14,093
- 136
Funny to see the new liberal form of climate denial on display in this thread. It seems liberals skipped the "it isn't happening" and "we aren't the cause" stages and have moved straight to "there's nothing we can do about it" and "it's too late" stages.
www.theguardian.com
The 5 stages of climate denial are on display ahead of the IPCC report | Dana Nuccitelli
Dana Nuccitelli: Climate contrarians appear to be running damage control in the media before the next IPCC report is published
SMOGZINN
Lifer
- Jun 17, 2005
- 14,202
- 4,401
- 136
People have been saying this for at least the last 50 years. And that is why a climate catastrophe is unavoidable.
Muse
Lifer
- Jul 11, 2001
- 37,516
- 8,103
- 136
I haven't touched my car for 13 days. Tomorrow I'll do my biweekly Costco run, which also gives the car some exercise. I quad roller skated I figure 10 times as far as I drove my car in the last year. My carbon footprint is only exceeded by that of the homeless (the carless homeless).
I am not a climatologist or a meteorologist. However, I have noticed that it's gotten quite a lot warmer where I live than it was, say, a couple decades ago. The wildfires are beyond unprecedented, so are the droughts. I'm seeing/hearing news of catastrophes more and more than ever that are caused by rising global temperatures.
I've never had job security in my life. I'm sorry but I can't give zero fucks for a coal miner or oil worker who has to figure out some other way to support himself and his family. Same with tobacco farming.
soundforbjt
Lifer
- Feb 15, 2002
- 17,787
- 6,035
- 136
Muse
Lifer
- Jul 11, 2001
- 37,516
- 8,103
- 136
hal2kilo
Lifer
- Feb 24, 2009
- 23,442
- 10,333
- 136
I do find this disturbing. What kind of Fn message is this? Bad form. I hope there is some kind of correcting message or a Fn explanation. First F up I see so far.
The UN's latest report states that massive-scale carbon capture will be necessary to achieve the most optimistic scenario of 1.5 C. The problem is, carbon capture tech still has a long way to go, and then it has to be scaled...
"The model used to create the most optimistic scenario in the report, which limits warming to 1.5 ˚C, assumes the world will figure out ways to remove about 5 billion tons of carbon dioxide a year by midcentury and 17 billion by 2100. (The scenario is known as SSP1-1.9, and those figures are based on an analysis of earlier data by Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute and contributing author on the UN assessment.)
That requires ramping up technologies and techniques capable of pulling as much CO2 out of the atmosphere every year as the US economy emitted in 2020. In other words, the world would need to stand up a brand-new carbon-sucking sector operating on the emissions scales of all America’s cars, power plants, planes, and factories, in the next 30 years or so."
www.technologyreview.com
"The model used to create the most optimistic scenario in the report, which limits warming to 1.5 ˚C, assumes the world will figure out ways to remove about 5 billion tons of carbon dioxide a year by midcentury and 17 billion by 2100. (The scenario is known as SSP1-1.9, and those figures are based on an analysis of earlier data by Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute and contributing author on the UN assessment.)
That requires ramping up technologies and techniques capable of pulling as much CO2 out of the atmosphere every year as the US economy emitted in 2020. In other words, the world would need to stand up a brand-new carbon-sucking sector operating on the emissions scales of all America’s cars, power plants, planes, and factories, in the next 30 years or so."
The UN climate report pins hopes on carbon removal technologies that barely exist
The planet is on track to exceed very dangerous warming levels, leaving us with fewer and fewer options.
SMOGZINN
Lifer
- Jun 17, 2005
- 14,202
- 4,401
- 136
Because this administration, like all the others, idea is that if we add enough renewable power the use of carbon fuels will decrease naturally by the magic of Market Forces!
Then anytime that actually starts to happen we subsidize the hell out of the carbon fuels to make them cheaper then the renewable energy, because otherwise some very rich people would become slightly less rich.
hal2kilo
Lifer
- Feb 24, 2009
- 23,442
- 10,333
- 136
It's the usual, people vote with their wallets BS. So we can't let gas get to $4.00 again.
woolfe9998
Lifer
- Apr 8, 2013
- 16,188
- 14,093
- 136
Gas is average $4.50 a gallon where I live. So we're already well past that in certain places.
TRENDING THREADS
-
Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread- Started by TheF34RChannel
- Replies: 23K
-
Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)- Started by DisEnchantment
- Replies: 10K
-
-
Discussion Speculation: Zen 4 (EPYC 4 "Genoa", Ryzen 7000, etc.)- Started by Vattila
- Replies: 13K
-
Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads
- Started by Tigerick
- Replies: 7K
Facebook
Twitter