"China thinks it can defeat America in battle"

[Atreus21]

http://theweek.com/article/index/264032/china-thinks-it-can-defeat-america-in-battle

The bad news first. The People's Republic of China now believes it can successfully prevent the United States from intervening in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or some other military assault by Beijing.

Now the good news. China is wrong — and for one major reason. It apparently disregards the decisive power of America's nuclear-powered submarines.

Moreover, for economic and demographic reasons Beijing has a narrow historical window in which to use its military to alter the world's power structure. If China doesn't make a major military move in the next couple decades, it probably never will.

The U.S. Navy's submarines — the unsung main defenders of the current world order — must hold the line against China for another 20 years. After that, America can declare a sort of quiet victory in the increasingly chilly Cold War with China.

My coworker served a nuclear-powered submarine in the Pacific. He got a kick out of this. Good article anyway.

 

[Texashiker]

Do we honestly think the united states would resort to nuclear weapons for a regional conflict?

Lets say China seizes some islands in the pacific. What are we going to do about it? Nothing, thats what.

 

[nehalem256]

Do we honestly think the united states would resort to nuclear weapons for a regional conflict?

Nuclear powered. Not nuclear armed.

Hard to launch a sea based invasion when there are a bunch of American submarines torpedoing your invasion ships.

 

[xBiffx]

Now the good news. China is wrong — and for one major reason. It apparently disregards the decisive power of America's nuclear-powered submarines.

Nuclear-powered submarines aren't that scary or decisive. Now the submarines that carry nuclear warheads, that's another matter. Author seems to like to conflate the two.

 

[Texashiker]

Hard to launch a sea based invasion when there are a bunch of American submarines torpedoing your invasion ships.

I do not even see that happening.

The united states government will take no action against china, nothing, zilch, zero, nada.

China has us by the balls.

We can not take action against china without putting our whole economy at risk.

 

[SpatiallyAware]

I do not even see that happening.

The united states government will take no action against china, nothing, zilch, zero, nada.

China has us by the balls.

We can not take action against china without putting our whole economy at risk.

War is excellent for our economy.

While we rely on china in some ways, they rely on us more. If we stop importing chinese goods it will be a hiccup on our end but would cause their economy to irrecoverably crash.



Nothing brings together americans like a good war.

 

[brandonb]

That article is assuming that China can ONLY send in an invasion force by boat.

What about paratroopers? Or Air Transport?

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Nuclear-powered submarines aren't that scary or decisive. Now the submarines that carry nuclear warheads, that's another matter. Author seems to like to conflate the two.

Maybe the author knows that all US submarines are nuclear capable but then again as we were taught to say when I was in the Navy. I can neither acknowledge nor deny the presence or non-presence of nuclear weapons on board the submarine/ship I'm stationed on.

 

[werepossum]

I do not even see that happening.

The united states government will take no action against china, nothing, zilch, zero, nada.

China has us by the balls.

We can not take action against china without putting our whole economy at risk.

True, but imagine the corresponding reduction in pain if we went to war with China and as a result declared our debt null and void.

Being held by the balls is undoubtedly the more uncomfortable of the two, but both parties are ultimately fixed in place.

 

[Texashiker]

War is excellent for our economy.

While we rely on china in some ways, they rely on us more. If we stop importing chinese goods it will be a hiccup on our end but would cause their economy to irrecoverably crash.

If we do not import chinese products, russia and europe will.

Do you realize if china cut us off we would reset maybe 100 years? No motors, no replacement car or truck parts, no wheel bearings, no tools, no clothes,,, nothing.

Replaced wheel bearings on your car lately? Done a brake job? Chances are all those parts were made in china.

It would take us decades to rebuild the factories lost to free trade. We do not even have to tools to start rebuilding.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

I do not even see that happening.

The united states government will take no action against china, nothing, zilch, zero, nada.

China has us by the balls.

We can not take action against china without putting our whole economy at risk.

I'm going to quote a poster from these very forums, because I think he summarizes the US-China relationship very well:

"When you owe the bank $100, that's your problem. When you owe the bank $1 million, that's the bank's problem."

China does not have us by the balls at all. In fact, I'd go as far as saying quite the reverse is true.

 

[Texashiker]

China does not have us by the balls at all. In fact, I'd go as far as saying quite the reverse is true.

You own a truck or car? Bought food lately? Bought clothes?

Where do you think your replacement car parts came from?

The trucks that shipped your food and clothes, where did the parts come from that kept those trucks running?

Spark plugs, brake pads, wheel bearings, axles, motor parts, tools,,, all made in china.

If you want to bring a nation to its knees, all you have to do is take out one key component such as wheel bearings.

No wheel bearings, no new cars or trucks.

No spark plugs, no new cars or trucks.

No starters, alternators,,,,,, nothing. Just last weekend I had to replace an alternator on my toyota truck.

Not only would our economy grind to a halt, but also our ability to produce cars and trucks, and our ability to maintain our current fleet.

 

[JEDIYoda]

You own a truck or car? Bought food lately? Bought clothes?

Where do you think your replacement car parts came from?

The trucks that shipped your food and clothes, where did the parts come from that kept those trucks running?

Spark plugs, brake pads, wheel bearings, axles, motor parts, tools,,, all made in china.

If you want to bring a nation to its knees, all you have to do is take out one key component such as wheel bearings.

No wheel bearings, no new cars or trucks.

No spark plugs, no new cars or trucks.

Not only would our economy grind to a halt, but also our ability to produce cars and trucks, and our ability to maintain our current fleet.

You can thank the republicans for that mess.....after all they orchestrated the takeover of Texas...

 

[xBiffx]

Maybe the author knows that all US submarines are nuclear capable but then again as we were taught to say when I was in the Navy. I can neither acknowledge nor deny the presence or non-presence of nuclear weapons on board the submarine/ship I'm stationed on.

To my knowledge, SSN's only carry conventional explosive missiles (warheads) and torpedoes. But like you said, this can't be confirmed.

 

[PricklyPete]

I do not even see that happening.



The united states government will take no action against china, nothing, zilch, zero, nada.



China has us by the balls.



We can not take action against china without putting our whole economy at risk.

China cannot either...it's a mutual reach-a-round.

 

[Texashiker]

You can thank the republicans for that mess.....after all they orchestrated the takeover of Texas...

Didn't bill clinton vote to allow china entrance into the world trade organization?

 

[SlickSnake]

 

[Newell Steamer]

,.. because we rocked face in the Middle East,... right.

 

[smackababy]

You own a truck or car? Bought food lately? Bought clothes?

Where do you think your replacement car parts came from?

The trucks that shipped your food and clothes, where did the parts come from that kept those trucks running?

Spark plugs, brake pads, wheel bearings, axles, motor parts, tools,,, all made in china.

If you want to bring a nation to its knees, all you have to do is take out one key component such as wheel bearings.

No wheel bearings, no new cars or trucks.

No spark plugs, no new cars or trucks.

No starters, alternators,,,,,, nothing. Just last weekend I had to replace an alternator on my toyota truck.

Not only would our economy grind to a halt, but also our ability to produce cars and trucks, and our ability to maintain our current fleet.

So, you think that if China stopped importing something to spite the US, our economy would cripple faster than theirs? Do you think everything besides wheel bearings would continue to ship? China's economy is tied to ours. Cripple either, and the other goes as well. However, the US is in a far better place than China in this regard.



In relation to the OP, China can think all it wants. The fact remains, the US has better weaponry and much better launch points to interfere with any Chinese invasion of anywhere. This isn't Korea.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

To my knowledge, SSN's only carry conventional explosive missiles (warheads) and torpedoes. But like you said, this can't be confirmed.

Sure it can, you just won't get someone to confirm such for public knowledge.

 

[xBiffx]

Sure it can, you just won't get someone to confirm such for public knowledge.

I still think the author is guilty of conflating the two terms.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

You own a truck or car? Bought food lately? Bought clothes?

Where do you think your replacement car parts came from?

The trucks that shipped your food and clothes, where did the parts come from that kept those trucks running?

Spark plugs, brake pads, wheel bearings, axles, motor parts, tools,,, all made in china.

If you want to bring a nation to its knees, all you have to do is take out one key component such as wheel bearings.

No wheel bearings, no new cars or trucks.

No spark plugs, no new cars or trucks.

No starters, alternators,,,,,, nothing. Just last weekend I had to replace an alternator on my toyota truck.

Not only would our economy grind to a halt, but also our ability to produce cars and trucks, and our ability to maintain our current fleet.

You're overestimating their importance and underestimating their need for our money. Any number of other nations could step in and fill that void. Don't think for a moment that should conflict occur, we could convert entire industries to producing these parts.

 

[smackababy]

You're overestimating their importance and underestimating their need for our money. Any number of other nations could step in and fill that void. Don't think for a moment that should conflict occur, we could convert entire industries to producing these parts.

Plus, a lot of places that built factories in China for cheap labor with little regulation are already looking elsewhere. As China becomes more industrialized and developed, the cost of doing business there is increasing. Vietnam is looking to be the next "best" place to move manufacturing. I sure hope China has a plan for when that happens.

 

[nehalem256]

That article is assuming that China can ONLY send in an invasion force by boat.

What about paratroopers? Or Air Transport?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army

130,000 men in the Taiwanese Army. Discounting its large reserves.

Exactly how many paratroopers do you think China has?

 

[bradley]

I'm going to quote a poster from these very forums, because I think he summarizes the US-China relationship very well:

"When you owe the bank $100, that's your problem. When you owe the bank $1 million, that's the bank's problem."

That's actually Bloomberg's quote and he's a moron with a few billion. It read stupid last year, and still reads incredibly stupid today.


Mayor Bloomberg: Don’t Panic About the Sequester
http://politicker.com/2013/03/mayor-bloomberg-dont-panic-about-the-sequester/

We are spending money we don’t have,” Mr. Bloomberg explained. “It’s not like your household. In your household, people are saying, ‘Oh, you can’t spend money you don’t have.’ That is true for your household because nobody is going to lend you an infinite amount of money. When it comes to the United States federal government, people do seem willing to lend us an infinite amount of money. … Our debt is so big and so many people own it that it’s preposterous to think that they would stop selling us more. It’s the old story: If you owe the bank $50,000, you got a problem. If you owe the bank $50 million, they got a problem. And that’s a problem for the lenders. They can’t stop lending us more money.”

Notice how absolutely nothing has changed in that year, except China is slowly being viewed by the US as an expansionist hegemonic aggressor. Today, going to war with China would be huge business for the US. In ten years time, who knows?