- Feb 14, 2004
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I think it'll be more like a BMW 3 series that starts in the mid $30s, but hits around $50k "well-equipped." Certainly there's more tech in the Tesla, so some configs will hit $60k+ but I think the ASP will be closer to $50k once production ramps up. Which is obvious considering the BMW 3 Series or Mercedes-Benz C-class are the vehicles directly targeted by the Model 3.
Also, the federal $7500 credit will begin to phase out for Tesla around mid-2018:
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/foru...hase-out-updated-040217-after-2017-q1-results
This is great for early adopters of the 3, but most buyers will be disappointed when 2019 rolls around. (The 50% credit level is still nothing to sneeze at.)
I disagree on a couple points you've made. First, I think it's been written that GM loses money on every Chevy Bolt sold. So I don't believe they are jacking up the price due to the existence of the federal rebate. Currently, BEVs are low volume, high cost goods. We're all hoping the Model 3 changes that!
As far as financing (or leasing) a brand new car, it can both be a justifiable and affordable expense for a person and a "bad" financial decision. Those are not mutually exclusive. IMHO, you're losing 35% (or worse) of the value of the average new car in 3 years. So almost by definition, it's can't be a good or even OK financial decision. But I agree that if you can afford it and it makes you happy, so be it.
I've never leased a car, but just because the monthly payments appear low doesn't mean it's better than financing. If I understand leasing correctly, you're basically paying for the depreciation of the vehicle over the lease term, based on the leasing company's choice of residual value. They can fudge RV a bit to move cars, but in theory it should more or less reflect actual depreciation of that vehicle. If you consider that at the end of the lease, you either have to buy out the car or start a new lease, you're still getting clubbed hard by depreciation in exchange for the privilege of being the first "owner."
I'll offer a slight exception here for the rare car like a Honda Accord that is both reasonably affordable and depreciates slowly compared to all other autos.
Tesla has a Model S vs. Model 3 comparison page up now:
https://www.tesla.com/compare
One of the things they are advertising are more than 1,500 configurations for the S vs. less than 100 configurations for the 3. I've seen the $60k top-end figure floated around for the 3; that seems a little high, but going off the available options on the S:
- AWD: $5k
- Enhanced Autopilot: (EAP) $5k
- Full Self-Driving: (FSD) $3k
- Premium Sound: $2.5k
- Subzero Weather Package: $1k
- Special Paint: $1.5k
- Sunroof: $2k
- Jumbo Wheels: $4.5k
Sure, GM says they lose money on every car, but I've worked in production before...they are still making a profit. It's the same trick companies use to post losses year after year & still stay afloat. It's all public marketing BS, haha. I do agree that you get clubbed for being the first owner of a vehicle...it's definitely not the cheapest solution to owning a car, if budget is your sole metric. It's all a shell game to move the money around over time so that the dealer makes a profit...leasing, buying new, buying CPO, etc. Cars are pretty much a losing situation no matter which way you slice it
