CBO analysis of new tax bill, $100k+ earner gets big cuts, poorer earner will tax more after bill

[Engineer]

The poor working class (8,000,000 people) are paying a 2.5% tax on their income because they can't afford health insurance. So....not only do that get a HUGE TAX PENALTY, they get ZERO INSURANCE. Democrats have a really twisted idea of what "helping" the poor looks like in the real world.

Question....do the poor working class not get subsidies and Medicaid expansion to pay for said high priced insurance?

 

[fskimospy]

Question....do the poor working class not get subsidies and Medicaid expansion to pay for said high priced insurance?

He's repeatedly and deliberately ignored all factual rebuttals of his nonsensical opinion. I'm fairly confident he will continue to do so.

Removing the mandate throws 13 million additional poor people off of their insurance by spending $300 billion less on it in order to give that money to rich people in tax breaks. DSF would like you to believe this is a progressive change. This is either because he's an idiot or he thinks you are.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Question....do the poor working class not get subsidies and Medicaid expansion to pay for said high priced insurance?

Out-of-pocket insurance costs are huge for the poor working class above the poverty line...even with subsidies and Medicaid expansion. When you live hand-to-mouth...insurance is a luxury and it makes more sense financially for them to pay the mandate penalty. The system really sucks for them.

 

[brycejones]

The poor working class (8,000,000 people) are paying a 2.5% tax on their income because they can't afford health insurance. So....not only do that get a HUGE TAX PENALTY, they get ZERO INSURANCE. Democrats have a really twisted idea of what "helping" the poor looks like in the real world.

Why can't they afford insurance? Does it have anything to do with medicaid expansion being blocked perhaps?

Seriously you're so transparently dishonest its like you're not even trying anymore.

 

[brycejones]

Out-of-pocket costs are huge for the poor working class above the poverty line...even with subsidies and Medicaid expansion. When you live hand-to-mouth...insurance is a luxury and it makes more sense financially for them to pay the mandate penalty. The system really sucks for them.

So the solution is to spend less on health care subsidies and increase their taxes. I'm really glad you're looking to improve the system for the working class poor. BTW higher out of pocket costs is an idea favored by the GOP since it gives people "skin in the game".

 

[Jhhnn]

Why can't they afford insurance? Does it have anything to do with medicaid expansion being blocked perhaps?

Seriously you're so transparently dishonest its like you're not even trying anymore.

He fools himself first & the rest follows from there.

 

[fskimospy]

He fools himself first & the rest follows from there.

It's amazing that he was able to fool himself so completely here as this is easily the worst tax bill ever seriously proposed. I'm not even talking about the liberal/conservative part of it. (this part is morally monstrous and economically stupid as well though) Much like the health care bill this thing is just so incompetently written that people have already noted tons of unintended consequences stemming from it. This is the sort of thing that happens when you are desperately trying to rush through a historically unpopular bill before people can mobilize against it. Same thing happened with the health care bill.

The bill is bad and the Republicans know it's bad. In a sane world that would mean they wouldn't want to pass it. In our world it means they are furiously trying to pass it before anyone notices just how shitty it is. This is the second case of this from the same people who complained the ACA (which took a year) was insanely and unreasonably rushed. Sadly, they can rely on useful idiots to convince themselves that this shit is actually something good.

 

[Jhhnn]

It's amazing that he was able to fool himself so completely here as this is easily the worst tax bill ever seriously proposed. I'm not even talking about the liberal/conservative part of it. (this part is morally monstrous and economically stupid as well though) Much like the health care bill this thing is just so incompetently written that people have already noted tons of unintended consequences stemming from it. This is the sort of thing that happens when you are desperately trying to rush through a historically unpopular bill before people can mobilize against it. Same thing happened with the health care bill.

The bill is bad and the Republicans know it's bad. In a sane world that would mean they wouldn't want to pass it. In our world it means they are furiously trying to pass it before anyone notices just how shitty it is. This is the second case of this from the same people who complained the ACA (which took a year) was insanely and unreasonably rushed. Sadly, they can rely on useful idiots to convince themselves that this shit is actually something good.

Truthiness reigns supreme in Trumplandia.

 

[deathBOB]

Out-of-pocket insurance costs are huge for the poor working class above the poverty line...even with subsidies and Medicaid expansion. When you live hand-to-mouth...insurance is a luxury and it makes more sense financially for them to pay the mandate penalty. The system really sucks for them.

So the solution would be expanding Obamacare tax credits or Medicaid access. I’m going to guess that you’ve never supported this.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

So the solution would be expanding Obamacare tax credits or Medicaid access. I’m going to guess that you’ve never supported this.

ACA is complete horseshit. The real solution is single payer.

 

[vi edit]

ACA is complete horseshit. The real solution is single payer.

The ACA isn't perfect but it's a path towards that. Medicaid expansion is a way of bringing more people under the government umbrella. Although arguably Medicare is a better run system with better options. The mandate is there as a stop loss to beef up risk pools with low risk policies. It's intent is to push young and healthy that would otherwise skip it to add to the risk pools to better protect the high risk that are using more than they are putting in.

As more and more people are added to government backed plans you reduce the power that the insurance industry as a whole has. How else would you propose we try and get to a full government operated single payer system?

 

[Meghan54]

Too bad 8,000,000 people didn't get the memo....must suck to be them.

Too bad their respective state legislatures refused to implement the entire ACA, hence causing exactly what you've described......and all Repub. controlled states.

Sucks to be GOP, apparently.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

The ACA isn't perfect but it's a path towards that. Medicaid expansion is a way of bringing more people under the government umbrella. Although arguably Medicare is a better run system with better options. The mandate is there as a stop loss to beef up risk pools with low risk policies. It's intent is to push young and healthy that would otherwise skip it to add to the risk pools to better protect the high risk that are using more than they are putting in.

I understand the intent of the mandate...but it's clearly not working. I don't understand why Democrats don't see this. 11.4mm enrollees, 12mm exemptions and 8mm electing to take the mandate penalty (largely the poor working class).

 

[Jhhnn]

I understand the intent of the mandate...but it's clearly not working. I don't understand why Democrats don't see this. 11.4mm enrollees, 12mm exemptions and 8mm electing to take the mandate penalty (largely the poor working class).

So the GOP will make it work better? Really?

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

So the GOP will make it work better? Really?

They'll make it better for 8,000,000 people who are hurting and need help the most.

 

[vi edit]

I understand the intent of the mandate...but it's clearly not working. I don't understand why Democrats don't see this. 11.4mm enrollees, 12mm exemptions and 8mm electing to take the mandate penalty (largely the poor working class).

The 8 million you toss out was for 2014. In 2016 it was down to 5.5 million. As for why? It's for a number of reasons. Ignorance. Living in state that didn't opt into expansion. Self employed that are really screwed when it comes to health care in general. And so on. But the number was going down year over year.

 

[fleshconsumed]

They'll make it better for 8,000,000 people who are hurting and need help the most.

So the 8 million won't have to pay 2.5% penalty, but they will have to pay higher taxes negating the 2.5% income gain, and another 13 million will lose their insurance completely. How is this better?

 

[fskimospy]

The 8 million you toss out was for 2014. In 2016 it was down to 5.5 million. As for why? It's for a number of reasons. Ignorance. Living in state that didn't opt into expansion. Self employed that are really screwed when it comes to health care in general. And so on. But the number was going down year over year.

It is pretty odd for someone to care so much about the 5.5 million people who will be better off without the mandate but not care much at all for the 13 million people who will be worse off without it. And honestly 13 million could just be the start of the damage. As Washington State showed removing the mandate could destroy the individual market entirely, causing massive damage to millions more.

Republicans literally already did this for the exact same reasons as now and it ended in easily foreseeable catastrophe. They have apparently learned nothing.

 

[Zorba]

Wife has an acquaintance who noted on Facebook that she refused to get health insurance because Obamacare is socialism which is evil and wrong.

When her son broke a bone, she drove two hours to a Native American hospital for free care because she has enough heritage to qualify.

Yeah, I have cousin that runs his own trade business. He has had a bad back for years, but got really messed up in a car accident. The car insurance company is refusing to cover the cost of the surgery because of his pre-existing condition and the accident wasn't that bad. Instead of getting Obamacare and getting his back taken care of, he has been fighting with the insurance company (now suing them) for three years. Meanwhile his business has fallen apart because he can't do the manual labor and doesn't charge enough to pay someone else to do it.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

The 8 million you toss out was for 2014. In 2016 it was down to 5.5 million. As for why? It's for a number of reasons. Ignorance. Living in state that didn't opt into expansion. Self employed that are really screwed when it comes to health care in general. And so on. But the number was going down year over year.

The IRS indicates 11 million filed for exemptions in 2016 (see link Page 78). Where are you getting your information?

http://taxpayeradvocate.irs.gov/Media/Default/Documents/2017-JRC/2016_filing_season_review.pdf

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

So the 8 million won't have to pay 2.5% penalty, but they will have to pay higher taxes negating the 2.5% income gain, and another 13 million will lose their insurance completely. How is this better?

The 2.5% income gain will not be substantially negated by taxes. How are 13 million people going to lose their coverage completely if the mandate is eliminated?

 

[fskimospy]

How are 13 million people going to lose their coverage completely if the mandate is eliminated?

I already told you this and you ignored it.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53300

CBO and the JCT estimate that, by itself, repealing the mandate would reduce federal deficits by about $338 billion over the 2018–2027 period and increase the number of uninsured people by 4 million in 2019 and 13 million in 2027.

Presumably the overwhelming majority of these people are poor or working class, and you're all about helping them, right?

 

[Jhhnn]

They'll make it better for 8,000,000 people who are hurting and need help the most.

Yeh, just like they did in states that refused Medicaid expansion.

Repubs are all about satisfying insane greed at the top of the economic food chain.

 

[Jhhnn]

So the 8 million won't have to pay 2.5% penalty, but they will have to pay higher taxes negating the 2.5% income gain, and another 13 million will lose their insurance completely. How is this better?

It's better for ultra wealthy Repub donors. It's all about priorities & the sacred rites of trickle down.

 

[fleshconsumed]

The 2.5% income gain will not be substantially negated by taxes.

Straight from the horse's mouth, estimate from the CBO, go to page 10:
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/11...estimate/reconciliationrecommendationssfc.pdf
By 2019 people making less than 30,000 will be paying more, by the end in 2027 pretty much two thirds of the country will be paying more.

How are 13 million people going to lose their coverage completely if the mandate is eliminated?

Once again, straight from the horse's mouth, direct link:
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/53300-individualmandate.pdf

Just in case you don't want to open that, I'll quote from it for you to read here:
"The number of people with health insurance would decrease by 4 million in 2019 and 13 million in 2027 (see Table 2)."
"Average premiums in the nongroup market would increase by about 10 percent in most years of the decade (with no changes in the ages of people purchasing insurance accounted for) relative to CBO’s baseline projections."

13 million people will lose their insurance, those who can still afford to pay it will be facing 10% yearly increases for the next 10 years.