If Harper wins minority, Liberals could stay in power: experts
OTTAWA (CP) - Gov. Gen. Adrienne Clarkson may be burning the midnight oil at Rideau Hall these days, boning up on just what she's supposed to do if no one wins a clear majority on June 28.
As titular head of government, Clarkson will be asked to oversee formation of the next government. But experts say her options are very limited. Unless Stephen Harper's Conservatives win a majority in the federal vote, Paul Martin and his Liberals will have another kick at the can.
"In a minority situation, even if he (Martin) has fewer seats than the Conservatives, he has that right to meet the House of Commons and put forth his agenda - end of story," says political scientist David Docherty.
Canada's political conventions say that if no party wins a clear majority, the incumbent prime minister - Martin - gets the first crack at forming the next government regardless of who won the most ridings.
Even if Harper's Conservatives take more seats than the Liberals, without a majority, Harper will be second choice.
The precedent dates back to the federal election of October 1925, which returned 102 Liberals, 114 Conservatives and 29 Progressives, Labour and Independents. Mackenzie King, the incumbent Liberal prime minister, governed with the support of the Progressives until the following June, when his government was defeated and the Conservatives were allowed to form a government.
Polls have consistently suggested the Conservatives and Liberals are running pretty much neck-and-neck, making the minority scenario increasingly likely.
"The Governor General is probably now taking some advice. . .and it would likely be: 'Here are your options and they're very few,' "says Docherty, who teaches at Wilfrid Laurier University.
Clarkson's staff isn't saying much about who she's consulting on her options.
"I presume she's reading up on the Constitutional authorities," said David Smith, an expert in the field who teaches at the University of Saskatchewan.
That would show her chief task is to ensure Canada has a government and a prime minister.
"That should provide us some comfort," adds Docherty.
"The unelected, appointed head of state in Canada has pretty clearly defined roles. . .it's not as though she can sprinkle fairy dust and say: 'now I'll let you govern.' "
But the scenario after June 28 could be complicated.
If any party wins a majority, it forms the next government.
That's simple enough.
Failing that, Martin - who remains prime minister until a replacement is sworn in - has first right to visit Rideau Hall and explain to Clarkson just how he thinks he can keep the confidence of the House - that is, govern.
To do so would require the support of at least one other party and most eyes are turning to Jack Layton's New Democrats.
And that suggests a long, hot summer of horse-trading between the Liberals and the NDP as Martin puts together a cabinet and prepares a throne speech acceptable to his supporters.
Smith suggests political parties will want to co-operate for a while at least, rather than snub voters. Minority governments last an average of 18 months in Canada.
And no one will want to stampede back to the polls after the trials of the current election campaign.
So Harper's chance to govern in a minority situation would come only if Martin's Liberals win so few seats that even with the support of another party, they couldn't likely survive a confidence vote.
Only then would Clarkson turn to Harper, according to political convention.
"She (Clarkson) does have the ultimate power although there are constraints on what she can and can't do," said Michael Behiels, a history professor at the University of Ottawa.
"But she won't want to become too intrusive because that would open her up to complaints of being too intrusive in the political process."
And Harper would have a much tougher time of trying to govern because he'd have trouble finding support from other parties, suggested Behiels.
Martin is already wooing the NDP by increasingly emphasizing social programs and policies on his left wing, Behiels added.
Even in Tuesday night's televised leaders debate, Martin seemed to be reaching out to Layton, hinting the next Liberal government would consider proportional representation - an article of faith among New Democrats.
"He's shifting his game plan to the centre. . .in the last couple of weeks, he's counting on the NDP picking up enough seats to allow him to form a minority government with NDP support," said Behiels.
Martin may also be able to win Bloc Quebecois backing on some bills as another method of support to keep his administration alive.
Minority situations aren't unusual to Canadian politics.
Over the years, the country has seen eight minority governments, the most recent in 1979 when a shocked Joe Clark became prime minister of a short- lived Progressive Conservative regime that fell to a resurgent wave of Trudeaumania the next year.
Cheers,
Aquaman
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