CA foreclosures up 67% from last year!

[FrustratedUser]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: FrustratedUser
:Q
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria CA $573.1 $308.9 86% Overpriced

That merely compares mostly incomes to prices. It doesn't take into account the "gotta live there" factor, of which SB has a lot, especially with 2nd homes from wealthy people who live out of area.
I'd be more concerned about areas that have a lot of investment property ownership, or where investors/flippers have been a driving force in the market.
Keep in mind that that "equilibrium" figure is mostly subjective. But then it rates my area as a "fair value," which must explain why I'm still doing business.

At least the numbers for Phoenix and Tucson makes sense.
Last year prices rose with 55% in Phoenix and 34% in Tucson so 25% overvalued in Tucson is correct.
Still got friends there and they say the sudden climb in '04 - '05 has stopped and there are many houses staying on hte market for a long time.

 

[GuitarDaddy]

Originally posted by: weirdichi
My mom is thinking about an interest only loan. I'm just thinking it's nuts. You're basically renting the house if you're paying interest only. How do I convince her not to do it? Any links to resouces I can show her?

Much worse than renting in this market. If the bottom falls out of valuations your screwed, if your renting thats the landlords problem.

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: FrustratedUser

At least the numbers for Phoenix and Tucson makes sense.
Last year prices rose with 55% in Phoenix and 34% in Tucson so 25% overvalued in Tucson is correct.
Still got friends there and they say the sudden climb in '04 - '05 has stopped and there are many houses staying on hte market for a long time.

I hear the inventory for Phoenix went from 3000 to 53000 available units in 18 months. I think all the speculators from CA tried to dump at the same time.

 

[Greenman]

If the market does drop 20% or more, I'll sure as heck be picking up another house when it bottoms out, maybe two.

 

[JulesMaximus]

Originally posted by: Greenman
If the market does drop 20% or more, I'll sure as heck be picking up another house when it bottoms out, maybe two.

No kidding. Investment property here I come!!!

 

[TheSlamma]

Just in time for the FIFTY YEAR LOAN... What a JOKE!!

 

[TheSlamma]

Originally posted by: dullard
Here is a good link of estimates of how over/under valued housing areas are.

CNN money has done a few articles I have no idea where they got their figures from this year. This being another one... the only house in Denver you are getting for $216 is going to be a townhouse... maybe they are referring to the suburbs, but around me I just looked at a house that was 2000sq ft over off Kearney and Colfax that was $490,000 and there was absolutly nothing special about that place. Lowry's average is $700,000. I don't know who in this town can afford this BS.

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: Greenman
If the market does drop 20% or more, I'll sure as heck be picking up another house when it bottoms out, maybe two.

At current rental rates, prices would have to come down about 30-40% in most CA markets for neutral cash flow assuming no appreciation. Of course, rents will probably rise a bit in the next few years (the wild card being downtown condos being converted to apartments which could keep rents down). Always make sure youve got positive cash flow and are in an area where its easy to find renters (near universities are my favorite place).

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: TheSlamma

Originally posted by: dullard
Here is a good link of estimates of how over/under valued housing areas are.

CNN money has done a few articles I have no idea where they got their figures from this year. This being another one... the only house in Denver you are getting for $216 is going to be a townhouse... maybe they are referring to the suburbs, but around me I just looked at a house that was 2000sq ft over off Kearney and Colfax that was $490,000 and there was absolutly nothing special about that place. Lowry's average is $700,000. I don't know who in this town can afford this BS.

Im guessing the values include townhomes, condos etc... San Jose with a 600K average? SF/OAkland with a 750K average? Even Sacramento 360K average is really low, unless you factor in condos.

 

[bennylong]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Greenman
If the market does drop 20% or more, I'll sure as heck be picking up another house when it bottoms out, maybe two.

At current rental rates, prices would have to come down about 30-40% in most CA markets for neutral cash flow assuming no appreciation. Of course, rents will probably rise a bit in the next few years (the wild card being downtown condos being converted to apartments which could keep rents down). Always make sure youve got positive cash flow and are in an area where its easy to find renters (near universities are my favorite place).

Downtown Condo here in LA sell for $450,000.00 for a 1br. I see condo in the same building also being rented out for $1,600.00.

If you buy the Condo, your monthly mortage is $2,600. You will also have to pay another $500 for Association fee, add property tax.

So why would anyone buy a condo when rent is so much cheaper? Rent would have to double!

 

[FrustratedUser]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: FrustratedUser

At least the numbers for Phoenix and Tucson makes sense.
Last year prices rose with 55% in Phoenix and 34% in Tucson so 25% overvalued in Tucson is correct.
Still got friends there and they say the sudden climb in '04 - '05 has stopped and there are many houses staying on hte market for a long time.

I hear the inventory for Phoenix went from 3000 to 53000 available units in 18 months. I think all the speculators from CA tried to dump at the same time.

They sure did and I hope the lose a lot of money.
Fscking up the market for people who needs a place to live FTL.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Where do you see an average price in SB of 570K? According to Yahoo, of the 240 homes for sale, 5 are below 570K.

Originally posted by: TheSlamma
CNN money has done a few articles I have no idea where they got their figures from this year. This being another one... the only house in Denver you are getting for $216 is going to be a townhouse... maybe they are referring to the suburbs

Following the CNN link to CNN's source, you'll get to the Local Market Monitor website. The Local Market Monitor website sends you to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Overshight. It says:

The HPI is a weighted, repeat-sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties.
...
[Metropolitan Statistical Area] definitions are taken directly from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). If specified criteria are met and an MSA contains a single core population greater than 2.5 million, the MSA is divided into Metropolitan Divisions.

Basically we are talking about sales of existing single family dwellings (not new dwellings) in the entire metropolitan area. That means lumping all the suburbs together, the inner city slums, and the wealthy country club estates. It includes everything in the area.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: bennylong
Topic Title: CA foreclosures up 67% from last year!

Shens

That can't be happening. The Economy is booming, the Gubnet said so.

 

[imported_Mike]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: bennylong
Topic Title: CA foreclosures up 67% from last year!

Shens

That can't be happening. The Economy is booming, the Gubnet said so.

Dave, you are a very bitter man.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Mike

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: bennylong
Topic Title: CA foreclosures up 67% from last year!

Shens

That can't be happening. The Economy is booming, the Gubnet said so.

Dave, you are a very bitter man.

You got that right.

I'm not thrilled to see what was a great Country shredded to bits over greed & power but to each his own.

Americans show their love to be pillaged everyday.

 

[TXHokie]

Prices doubled and then drops 10-20%? Still not affordable...

 

[OutHouse]

saw this coming years ago. its to be expected when banks make redilicious loan approvals for a 500K home for someobdy making 70K a year.

oh and home prices are not going to come down from all the foreclosures. investment groups are all lined up to gobble up on foreclosed homes.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Mike

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: bennylong
Topic Title: CA foreclosures up 67% from last year!

Shens

That can't be happening. The Economy is booming, the Gubnet said so.

Dave, you are a very bitter man.

See below.



This isn't unexpected. The forclosure market dropped after a lot of people cleaned the slate before the bankruptcy legislation went into affect, now you are seeing a reversion back to the mean, mixed in with downturn, fiscal problems...etc. THis is only the tip of the iceberg.

 

[UDT89]

NY is falling already.

Saw a condo drop from $289k to $249k last week.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: UDT89
NY is falling already.

Saw a condo drop from $289k to $249k last week.

It's amazing how you were able to come to that conclusion off the basis of a single listing.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: SampSon
I love people who have ARMs, they are now fueling a mass influx of refi customers who are jumping on the newly lowered interest rates.
Keep it coming suckers.

Yep, it's amazing that no one seems to want to notice that interest rates are going back down again, and that that will also help values. I've been in the industry since rates were 9%. Anyone who wants to tell me that 6.25% on a 30 fixed is high can go to hell as far as I'm concerned.

 

[GasX]

I am a special case, but I am happy with my Interest only ARM and firmly believe it was a wise financial decision to take it out.

I still have 3 years left at 4.7% before adjustments kick in and have already paid down more than I would have with a traditional 30 year loan. We can afford the monthly payment with my salary, and we use my wifes income (which is substantial but not regular) for things like lump sum principal payments, home improvements and savings.

We also put about 40% down on the house.

I don't go around recommending interest only loans, but it was a home run for us.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: Mwilding
I am a special case, but I am happy with my Interest only ARM and firmly believe it was a wise financial decision to take it out.

I still have 3 years left at 4.7% before adjustments kick in and have already paid down more than I would have with a traditional 30 year loan. We can afford the monthly payment with my salary, and we use my wifes income (which is substantial but not regular) for things like lump sum principal payments, home improvements and savings.

We also put about 40% down on the house.

I don't go around recommending interest only loans, but it was a home run for us.

Don't forget that any principal payments you make also reduce your minimum monthly interest-only payments.

I don't think you're a special case. Interest-only's (which come both fixed and ARM) are great loans for anyone with a little financial know-how and self-discipline, and are almost perfect for anyone with irregular income (i.e., commissioned, bonused, or self-employed) or for someone who reasonably expects their income to increase in the future. And if you can discipline yourself to pay more than the minimum on your credit card(s) on a regular basis, then you can make an I/O mortgage work for you as well.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: SampSon
I love people who have ARMs, they are now fueling a mass influx of refi customers who are jumping on the newly lowered interest rates.
Keep it coming suckers.

Yep, it's amazing that no one seems to want to notice that interest rates are going back down again, and that that will also help values. I've been in the industry since rates were 9%. Anyone who wants to tell me that 6.25% on a 30 fixed is high can go to hell as far as I'm concerned.

The problem with your logic is that they are going to stay low, or that the decrease is anything but an abberation.

I am of the mind that current rates are driven by unrealistic assumptions of market capacity and risk. Not to mention the assumption, by the market, that the curve should be flat. Considering all of the inflationary tendancies we are seeing and increased risk across the board, it should be higher.

 

[hysperion]

Originally posted by: TheSlamma

Originally posted by: dullard
Here is a good link of estimates of how over/under valued housing areas are.

CNN money has done a few articles I have no idea where they got their figures from this year. This being another one... the only house in Denver you are getting for $216 is going to be a townhouse... maybe they are referring to the suburbs, but around me I just looked at a house that was 2000sq ft over off Kearney and Colfax that was $490,000 and there was absolutly nothing special about that place. Lowry's average is $700,000. I don't know who in this town can afford this BS.

Fiscal irresponsibility runs from the top down in this country......from the government to joe blue collar......