CA foreclosures up 67% from last year!

[Vic]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: SampSon
I love people who have ARMs, they are now fueling a mass influx of refi customers who are jumping on the newly lowered interest rates.
Keep it coming suckers.

Yep, it's amazing that no one seems to want to notice that interest rates are going back down again, and that that will also help values. I've been in the industry since rates were 9%. Anyone who wants to tell me that 6.25% on a 30 fixed is high can go to hell as far as I'm concerned.

The problem with your logic is that they are going to stay low, or that the decrease is anything but an abberation.

I am of the mind that current rates are driven by unrealistic assumptions of market capacity and risk. Not to mention the assumption, by the market, that the curve should be flat. Considering all of the inflationary tendancies we are seeing and increased risk across the board, it should be higher.

Not at all. My logic is that free markets always engage in self-organizing (or self-correcting if you prefer) behavior. Market gets hot, rates get driven up. Market then cools, rates come back down. And so on. Volatile equilibrium, if you will.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: SampSon
I love people who have ARMs, they are now fueling a mass influx of refi customers who are jumping on the newly lowered interest rates.
Keep it coming suckers.

Yep, it's amazing that no one seems to want to notice that interest rates are going back down again, and that that will also help values. I've been in the industry since rates were 9%. Anyone who wants to tell me that 6.25% on a 30 fixed is high can go to hell as far as I'm concerned.

The problem with your logic is that they are going to stay low, or that the decrease is anything but an abberation.

I am of the mind that current rates are driven by unrealistic assumptions of market capacity and risk. Not to mention the assumption, by the market, that the curve should be flat. Considering all of the inflationary tendancies we are seeing and increased risk across the board, it should be higher.

Not at all. My logic is that free markets always engage in self-organizing (or self-correcting if you prefer) behavior. Market gets hot, rates get driven up. Market then cools, rates come back down. And so on. Volatile equilibrium, if you will.

You are assuming that markets are efficient, which they are anything but. Irrationality, stupidity, and greed pervade the market and make it extremely inefficient. If it were efficient it would grow at a steady rate with the economy rather than outstripping it by multiples.

Believers in efficient markets live in the vacuum of naivete.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: SampSon
I love people who have ARMs, they are now fueling a mass influx of refi customers who are jumping on the newly lowered interest rates.
Keep it coming suckers.

Yep, it's amazing that no one seems to want to notice that interest rates are going back down again, and that that will also help values. I've been in the industry since rates were 9%. Anyone who wants to tell me that 6.25% on a 30 fixed is high can go to hell as far as I'm concerned.

The problem with your logic is that they are going to stay low, or that the decrease is anything but an abberation.

I am of the mind that current rates are driven by unrealistic assumptions of market capacity and risk. Not to mention the assumption, by the market, that the curve should be flat. Considering all of the inflationary tendancies we are seeing and increased risk across the board, it should be higher.

Not at all. My logic is that free markets always engage in self-organizing (or self-correcting if you prefer) behavior. Market gets hot, rates get driven up. Market then cools, rates come back down. And so on. Volatile equilibrium, if you will.

You are assuming that markets are efficient, which they are anything but. Irrationality, stupidity, and greed pervade the market and make it extremely inefficient. If it were efficient it would grow at a steady rate with the economy rather than outstripping it by multiples.

Believers in efficient markets live in the vacuum of naivete.

Irrationality, stupidity, and greed are all part of any market, efficient or not. Sounds like you believe in a perfect world, and that IMO is as naive as it gets. Thanks for your emotional insight though.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: SampSon
I love people who have ARMs, they are now fueling a mass influx of refi customers who are jumping on the newly lowered interest rates.
Keep it coming suckers.

Yep, it's amazing that no one seems to want to notice that interest rates are going back down again, and that that will also help values. I've been in the industry since rates were 9%. Anyone who wants to tell me that 6.25% on a 30 fixed is high can go to hell as far as I'm concerned.

The problem with your logic is that they are going to stay low, or that the decrease is anything but an abberation.

I am of the mind that current rates are driven by unrealistic assumptions of market capacity and risk. Not to mention the assumption, by the market, that the curve should be flat. Considering all of the inflationary tendancies we are seeing and increased risk across the board, it should be higher.

Not at all. My logic is that free markets always engage in self-organizing (or self-correcting if you prefer) behavior. Market gets hot, rates get driven up. Market then cools, rates come back down. And so on. Volatile equilibrium, if you will.

You are assuming that markets are efficient, which they are anything but. Irrationality, stupidity, and greed pervade the market and make it extremely inefficient. If it were efficient it would grow at a steady rate with the economy rather than outstripping it by multiples.

Believers in efficient markets live in the vacuum of naivete.

Irrationality, stupidity, and greed are all part of any market, efficient or not. Sounds like you believe in a perfect world, and that IMO is as naive as it gets. Thanks for your emotional insight though.

If anything, I believe in a completely imperfect world, where people bid up items to stupid prices, not believing that their stupidity will catch up to them. Eventually, it will. The "global housing boom" has happened before, when Japan was scooping up everything, same deal. They got their arses burned and have paid for it with stagnation. The only way they avoided a massive downturn was to drop IR down to almost 0 and borrow money from everybody else utilizing keiretsu connections.

Even now, in the UK there is a credit crisis. Credit card and housing portfolio defaults are skyrocketing, nobody knows when it will end or where the ceiling is.

Here, it's much worse. With the amount of CC debt outstanding at an all-time high, mortgage and student loans at an all-time high, you are seeing the leveraging of future cashflows like never before in history. Sometime, it has to catch up. That sometime will be the next decade when those cashflows have to be brought back and spending reigned in.

 

[madeupfacts]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: UDT89
NY is falling already.

Saw a condo drop from $289k to $249k last week.

It's amazing how you were able to come to that conclusion off the basis of a single listing.

I saw one 2!
Thus it is confirm, the armageddon of the housing market is begin!

 

[Buck Armstrong]

Originally posted by: Mwilding
I am a special case, but I am happy with my Interest only ARM and firmly believe it was a wise financial decision to take it out.

I still have 3 years left at 4.7% before adjustments kick in and have already paid down more than I would have with a traditional 30 year loan. We can afford the monthly payment with my salary, and we use my wifes income (which is substantial but not regular) for things like lump sum principal payments, home improvements and savings.

We also put about 40% down on the house.

I don't go around recommending interest only loans, but it was a home run for us.

You're not a special case. You put down 40%...how were you going to lose after that?

 

[Slew Foot]

Text



Yodelayheehoo!

Nice graph there.
Compare this bubble to the last one. Have incomes risen 300% in the last 5 years? I think not.