Bye Bye GDPNow

[monkeydelmagico]

So this will go the way of M3 money supply? No gnews is good gnews with Gary Gnu!

 

[fskimospy]

The ceridian pulse of commerce index went away. That's the only one I can remember by name. There have been several that have come and gone. The one that tracked the amount of cardboard containers was one of my favorites. There have been several others that have been "doctored" rather blatantly, such as the NACM Rejections of Credit Applications index which just had a massive revision that completely removed a significant decline.

If I had to guess I would predict that the Atlanta Fed will stop publishing its realtime forecast by Q3.

So you think the government or some related entity got rid of the index tracking cardboard containers because it posted bad economic news? Are you joking? This is conspiracy crank territory. Are you reading Zerohedge or something? (if so, my condolences)

Thanks for the concrete prediction though, I'm going to tag this for July. If by then Atlanta is still posting GDPNow numbers will you come back and admit you got taken in by a crazy conspiracy theory?

 

[zinfamous]

If you cannot understand what GDPNow is then you should take out your high school diploma (if you have one) and light it on fire. Do it now. GDPNow is simply the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's estimate for the current quarter's GDP. Wow so complicated.

What I know is that 2 months ago, the big scary arrow in that chart predicted that the line there at the bottom was going to plummet will below the 0.0 number thingy. Now, that chart, without big scary arrow, shows that the trend never dropped below the 0.5 number thingy, but it still predicts a slight trend downward.

I'm smartified!

 

[Blanky]

Five years ago I was so sure the economy was about to die that I yanked all out of stocks and went full in on gold. Since then the Dow is almost three times as big and my gold is worth less. I not worried though because <insert name of expert who owns a blog> predicted all this so I now doubling down on yet more gold. I started burying my silver coins in PVC in the backyard too.

 

[fskimospy]

What I know is that 2 months ago, the big scary arrow in that chart predicted that the line there at the bottom was going to plummet will below the 0.0 number thingy. Now, that chart, without big scary arrow, shows that the trend never dropped below the 0.5 number thingy, but it still predicts a slight trend downward.

I'm smartified!

Any day now the government is going to come and tell them to stop posting it because...well...some reason or another. It's just like how they conspired to under report inflation, conspired to over report employment, etc.

It's always funny/sad to watch sites like zerohedge and other failed economic predictors try to claim that the reasons why their predictions are always wrong isn't that they don't know what they are talking about, but because of some secret conspiracy against them.

 

[zinfamous]

Neither do I. Any suggestions how to grill a steak Zin? I used to like them well done but I now think medium is fine. Any suggestions on how to get a good char on the outside but avoid grey on the inside? I've tried cast iron pans and found them too difficult to clean & maintain.

I've been using a hot iron these days--you know, one of those vintage clothes irons, solid iron. Just sit that thing on some hot coals for about 30 minutes to get it ready, then press lightly onto each side of your steak for about 30 seconds each.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

If you cannot understand what GDPNow is then you should take out your high school diploma (if you have one) and light it on fire. Do it now. GDPNow is simply the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's estimate for the current quarter's GDP. Wow so complicated.

Thank you for explaining it in a simple way to such a peon as me.

 

[zinfamous]

Thank you for explaining it in a simple way to such a peon as me.

I'm not that bright myself. For example: it wasn't until the 4th time cooking steaks with the hot iron method, that I realized I should use some sort of silicon or thick oven mitts to hold the hot iron while I pressed my steak.

...that was some expensive surgery.

 

[fskimospy]

Thank you for explaining it in a simple way to such a peon as me.

Oh I just remembered, this guy is an inflation truther. Anyone who believes that nonsense has no room to call anyone ignorant.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I've been using a hot iron these days--you know, one of those vintage clothes irons, solid iron. Just sit that thing on some hot coals for about 30 minutes to get it ready, then press lightly onto each side of your steak for about 30 seconds each.

Wait just like an old school clothes iron like this? Does it get messy? I didn't like how the cast iron held on to the food debris. Plus my fiancée did the same thing with the cast iron pan, she mistakenly grabbed the handle while it was real hot.

 

[zinfamous]

Wait just like an old school clothes iron like this? Does it get messy? I didn't like how the cast iron held on to the food debris. Plus my fiancée did the same thing with the cast iron pan, she mistakenly grabbed the handle while it was real hot.

See, now I see where I went wrong. Had that arrow been there earlier, I would have understood the source of danger. :\

 

[First]

The ceridian pulse of commerce index went away. That's the only one I can remember by name. There have been several that have come and gone. The one that tracked the amount of cardboard containers was one of my favorites. There have been several others that have been "doctored" rather blatantly, such as the NACM Rejections of Credit Applications index which just had a massive revision that completely removed a significant decline.

If I had to guess I would predict that the Atlanta Fed will stop publishing its realtime forecast by Q3.

Oy.

 

[sm625]

Oh I just remembered, this guy is an inflation truther. Anyone who believes that nonsense has no room to call anyone ignorant.

Ignorant troll. You are the epitomy of a failed education system and a perfect example of why this country is swirling the toilet bowl. You will sit and spout that "no inflation" garbage while the average family is shelling out $20000
$20000 a year for health care premiums and $40000 a year for tuition and
$5.00 a pound for ground beef. Why dont you post a stupid picture while you're at it like these other jibbering clowns. It's good that you can make light of a 200+ year old republic being torn to shreds before your eyes.

 

[zinfamous]

The average family is spending $20k a year on health and $40k a year on tuition?

that's interesting.

 

[fskimospy]

The average family is spending $20k a year on health and $40k a year on tuition?

that's interesting.

You do, it's just that colleges and health insurance companies are in on the conspiracy to suppress inflation so they are under reporting their numbers too. Any time you see facts that show inflation truthers to be wrong that just means the conspiracy is that much larger.

It's so weird to see people who think inflation is a terrible thing but are utterly unwilling to accept evidence that the thing they don't want to happen... is in fact not happening. It seems that they would rather live in what they consider to be a terrible world than admit that their understanding of economics is wrong.

It's even worse that there seems to be a whole industry set up around extracting money from these dupes through 'BUY GOLD' sites, etc.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Ignorant troll. You are the epitomy of a failed education system and a perfect example of why this country is swirling the toilet bowl. You will sit and spout that "no inflation" garbage while the average family is shelling out $20000
$20000 a year for health care premiums and $40000 a year for tuition and
$5.00 a pound for ground beef. Why dont you post a stupid picture while you're at it like these other jibbering clowns. It's good that you can make light of a 200+ year old republic being torn to shreds before your eyes.

I'm sure you're smart and probably well educated. You're tone is very condescending, so much that it is hard to read what you have to say. You would be more effective if you could explain your point in simple terms and avoid getting frustrated. Frustration cause all of us to lash out which cheapens our speech.
That is why you get push back or lose the attention of people.

 

[First]

Ignorant troll. You are the epitomy of a failed education system and a perfect example of why this country is swirling the toilet bowl. You will sit and spout that "no inflation" garbage while the average family is shelling out $20000
$20000 a year for health care premiums and $40000 a year for tuition and
$5.00 a pound for ground beef. Why dont you post a stupid picture while you're at it like these other jibbering clowns. It's good that you can make light of a 200+ year old republic being torn to shreds before your eyes.

lol.

Boy, $20k a year for healthcare? My whole family must be getting a steal at $3500/yr.

 

[Meghan54]

lol.

Boy, $20k a year for healthcare? My whole family must be getting a steal at $3500/yr.

Well, the average cost for a "typical" family health insurance plan is roughly $16K, of which employers pay the vast majority. If you add the employer contribution and employee contribution, it'll total somewhere around $16K. Those numbers are from Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation:

http://kff.org/report-section/ehbs-2014-summary-of-findings/


Maybe that's what he's quoting?

 

[sandorski]

The Economy, on the quantum level, is about to peak to maximum inertial momentum. Geometric evolution calculated to the 100th position concludes to greater than 90 percent certainty: Buy Low, Sell High

 

[Budarow2]

Well, the average cost for a "typical" family health insurance plan is roughly $16K, of which employers pay the vast majority. If you add the employer contribution and employee contribution, it'll total somewhere around $16K. Those numbers are from Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation:

http://kff.org/report-section/ehbs-2014-summary-of-findings/


Maybe that's what he's quoting?

He could be self-employed. My dentist said he pays $35k for his family's medical plan (4 people).

 

[fskimospy]

He could be self-employed. My dentist said he pays $35k for his family's medical plan (4 people).

He must have some AMAZING coverage. That's More than double the cost of the average plan in America, employer and personal contributions combined.

 

[OverVolt]

1. What is your basis for saying that?
2. The U.S. is not currently engaging in quantitative easing.

I swear, this board is like a Ron Paul convention sometimes. So many people who are so strongly convinced about hard money policies with so little understanding.

The Ron Paul types are expecting hyperinflation and wheel barrows of $100's.

QE causes the velocity of money to plummet.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V/

It just does. You increase the money supply and park it on toxic balance sheets. Deflation, because trade volume decreases. This is happening in stocks and housing.

Prices will keep levitating on lower volume until the volume collapses.

 

[OverVolt]

Raw houses sold volume data.

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/soldann.pdf

Considering the increases in population... the numbers are abysmal.

 

[fskimospy]

The Ron Paul types are expecting hyperinflation and wheel barrows of $100's.

QE causes the velocity of money to plummet.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V/

It just does. You increase the money supply and park it on toxic balance sheets. Deflation, because trade volume decreases. This is happening in stocks and housing.

Prices will keep levitating on lower volume until the volume collapses.

Saying that QE leads to lower velocity of money still wouldn't mean it was deflationary. QE is still fundamentally inflationary, but a lot of it is offset by the liquidity trap.

Inflation is a function of the velocity of money AND the overall money supply. When in a state with a near infinite preference for liquidity as we have been in, increasing the money supply tends to correspond with decreasing velocity. It's not that QE is deflationary, it is that people hoarding money decreases the velocity, which offsets the increases in the monetary base.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/On-The-E...elocity-Tell-Us-about-Low-Inflation-in-the-US

 

[Blanky]

He could be self-employed. My dentist said he pays $35k for his family's medical plan (4 people).

Wow, what the hell. I have a co-worker who pays all out of pocket for his family plan with 4 and it' in the high teens. $35k is an outlier for sure, if accurate.

My company pays about 80% of mine and the math works out to my plan costing in the ballpark of $16k.