Bye Bye GDPNow

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
http://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow.cfm


20150325_gdp_0.jpg


It shouldnt be long before this page gets quietly pulled from the interwebs.
 
Feb 4, 2009
35,862
17,402
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Anyone else notice its just dates & percentage? While I can't be bothered to click on the link it sure would be nice if the chart had some kind of meaning to it to entice me to look at the story.
 

Smoblikat

Diamond Member
Nov 19, 2011
5,184
107
106
Our 24-mar is at about 0.2 :(

Troubling times indeed. (graph irrelevant without labels)
 

Jimzz

Diamond Member
Oct 23, 2012
4,399
190
106
Isn't that the graph for blackberry sales? Yes, disturbing indeed ;)


What are you talking about, no way. That would be way to rosy compared to the real figures. :awe:


Found the blackberry fanboy!!!
 

Attic

Diamond Member
Jan 9, 2010
4,282
2
76
Yes, there is no growth and the mainstream media is portraying the economy as stronger than it actually is. The NYSE after being on an absolute tear during times of money printing, is now negative following the end of the latest round of money printing (QE3).

Reasons for low/no growth? From what I see it's because the large majority of Americans have not participated in any recovery at all since 2007. All the bailout and money printing went to serve small portions of American elite in order to preserve their wealth built on bubble economics and leverage.

The Fed mechanism needs to much more directly help main street rather than being designed (as it currently is) to help Wall Street so that main street may beg crumbs from that table. If we are, as the Bernank believes, really at the mercy of Wall Street, then there are bigger issues to address.

It's an odd place, conservatives want to audit the Fed (so that everyone can see our taxpayers bailed out domestic AND foreign banks), Dems are opposed to bringing any transparency to the most destructive force acting on Main Street. But once empowered with that transparency what would conservatives really do to help the majority of hard working americans?


Cliffs: No growth is very bad news for debt based economy, and the truth here is getting harder to conceal. This is no growth after the Fed emptied it's payload on the problem.

SuperCliffs: QE4
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,406
9,601
136
Yes, there is no growth and the mainstream media is portraying the economy as stronger than it actually is.

Bush and Obama... Republicans and Democrats... spent their efforts since 2008 bailing out Wall-street.
That's all they had to do right, protect the 0.1%?

Maybe... if we just print / loan them a few trillion more...
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,627
54,579
136
Yes, there is no growth and the mainstream media is portraying the economy as stronger than it actually is. The NYSE after being on an absolute tear during times of money printing, is now negative following the end of the latest round of money printing (QE3).

Reasons for low/no growth? From what I see it's because the large majority of Americans have not participated in any recovery at all since 2007. All the bailout and money printing went to serve small portions of American elite in order to preserve their wealth built on bubble economics and leverage.

The Fed mechanism needs to much more directly help main street rather than being designed (as it currently is) to help Wall Street so that main street may beg crumbs from that table. If we are, as the Bernank believes, really at the mercy of Wall Street, then there are bigger issues to address.

It's an odd place, conservatives want to audit the Fed (so that everyone can see our taxpayers bailed out domestic AND foreign banks), Dems are opposed to bringing any transparency to the most destructive force acting on Main Street. But once empowered with that transparency what would conservatives really do to help the majority of hard working americans?


Cliffs: No growth is very bad news for debt based economy, and the truth here is getting harder to conceal. This is no growth after the Fed emptied it's payload on the problem.

SuperCliffs: QE4

The Dow is up about 700 points since bond buying was stopped on 30 October, 2014.
It's very strange to me that so many people on here are so confident about their economic predictions when they don't even have the basic facts right.

http://measuringworth.com/DJA/
 

Kwatt

Golden Member
Jan 3, 2000
1,602
12
81
The Dow is up about 700 points since bond buying was stopped on 30 October, 2014.
It's very strange to me that so many people on here are so confident about their economic predictions when they don't even have the basic facts right.

http://measuringworth.com/DJA/

I can't tell by this if you agree or disagree with Attic?

The Dow a measure of "Wall Street" is it not.

I read his statement to be referring to "Main Street".
~89% of which does not directly own stocks. They may have some in a retirement plan of some kind but that is not spendable.
They has been no growth/little growth in real wages. And anything that they manage to put in savings is at .1%.


I am waiting to see if the FED raises intrest rates in June. If they do and do not have to back off or start another QE or QE equivalent before Q4 2016. I would take that as a good sign.

Right now the FED is operating in emergency mode. Indicated by the low rates and high accomdation. I am sure they have a better grasp of the situtation than I do and if they are scared to raise rates. You can bet I am nervous about it also.

Historically speaking has anyone held rates this low for this long before? I would like to look it up and read about the process and how it worked out.


.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
I can't tell by this if you agree or disagree with Attic?

The Dow a measure of "Wall Street" is it not.

I read his statement to be referring to "Main Street".
~89% of which does not directly own stocks. They may have some in a retirement plan of some kind but that is not spendable.
They has been no growth/little growth in real wages. And anything that they manage to put in savings is at .1%.


I am waiting to see if the FED raises intrest rates in June. If they do and do not have to back off or start another QE or QE equivalent before Q4 2016. I would take that as a good sign.

Right now the FED is operating in emergency mode. Indicated by the low rates and high accomdation. I am sure they have a better grasp of the situtation than I do and if they are scared to raise rates. You can bet I am nervous about it also.

Historically speaking has anyone held rates this low for this long before? I would like to look it up and read about the process and how it worked out.


.
And the REALLY scary part is that since we've had very little real growth (as opposed to a put-and-take fishery of made-up and borrowed dollars) since the crash, the Fed has little in their pocket to combat another recession. Hard to generate much economic activity from cutting interest rates to nothing from next to nothing.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,627
54,579
136
I can't tell by this if you agree or disagree with Attic?

The Dow a measure of "Wall Street" is it not.

I read his statement to be referring to "Main Street".
~89% of which does not directly own stocks. They may have some in a retirement plan of some kind but that is not spendable.
They has been no growth/little growth in real wages. And anything that they manage to put in savings is at .1%.


I am waiting to see if the FED raises intrest rates in June. If they do and do not have to back off or start another QE or QE equivalent before Q4 2016. I would take that as a good sign.

Right now the FED is operating in emergency mode. Indicated by the low rates and high accomdation. I am sure they have a better grasp of the situtation than I do and if they are scared to raise rates. You can bet I am nervous about it also.

Historically speaking has anyone held rates this low for this long before? I would like to look it up and read about the process and how it worked out.


.

His post is mostly just a collection of wrong facts and bad policy ideas stemming from them.

First, his post is based on wrong numbers: he says the NYSE is negative after QE3 ended, which is simply false.

Second, he talks about wanting to audit the Fed, but that makes no sense. The Fed is already audited and has been for a very long time. Conservatives are mostly pushing for more congressional control over the Fed, which is a very bad idea. (it's independent precisely to stop political meddling)

The idea that there's been no growth is ridiculous too.

As for raising rates this summer, I feel like the fed is going to do so but it's a terrible idea. Rates should stay low until there is inflation.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,627
54,579
136
And the REALLY scary part is that since we've had very little real growth (as opposed to a put-and-take fishery of made-up and borrowed dollars) since the crash, the Fed has little in their pocket to combat another recession. Hard to generate much economic activity from cutting interest rates to nothing from next to nothing.

Every credible estimate of economic growth disagrees with you, but I'm sure that will have no effect on your opinion.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,091
513
126
The raising of rates this summer feel premature to me as well. It feels like we are finally getting legs under this rebound. No need to knock them out so soon.
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
8,084
8,940
136
And the REALLY scary part is that since we've had very little real growth (as opposed to a put-and-take fishery of made-up and borrowed dollars) since the crash, the Fed has little in their pocket to combat another recession. Hard to generate much economic activity from cutting interest rates to nothing from next to nothing.
Nt6p4HK.png


Exactly. It's why fiscal policy was used to get the economy out of the doldrums in the past. Note the sharp upticks from past recessions when fiscal policy wasn't considered evil big gub'mint "crowding out" the holy FreeMarket™.

You "borrow" when interest rates are nothing. You use that capital to improve (here, the public good...I know, dirty dirty socialism) your "holdings" and when the bill needs paid, your improvements pay for themselves with profits left over. Because we operate using fiat currency, the US government simply "borrows" from itself to make massive infrastructure improvements. I'm talking massive. Lots of jobs are created with money flowing to...wait for it...people (instead of banks) and those people use that money to buy food, dishwashers, cars, houses, and everything else. All of that money flowing about improves the economy for vast amounts of Murricans!

US infrastructure is laughably outdated. Interest rates, as you note, are next to nothing. Why then are we not improving the f-ck out of our infrastructure, which creates lots and lots of private economy jobs, and lots of private economy buying/selling/profit?

The answer is that gub'mint is always evil, so we can't do that, not anymore.

Instead, we'll keep cutting taxes on the .01% so that they can hand their extra cash over to Wall St. criminals who will push that money around enough to earn themselves Fees, Bonuses and Commissions. And then when the next bubble created by the Wall St. criminals bursts, the .01% can again purchase land, equipment, business and licenses (real wealth) for firesale prices, which is a natural, legitimate right of our nobles.

All hail FreeMarket™.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,627
54,579
136
Nt6p4HK.png


Exactly. It's why fiscal policy was used to get the economy out of the doldrums in the past. Note the sharp upticks from past recessions when fiscal policy wasn't considered evil big gub'mint "crowding out" the holy FreeMarket™.

You "borrow" when interest rates are nothing. You use that capital to improve (here, the public good...I know, dirty dirty socialism) your "holdings" and when the bill needs paid, your improvements pay for themselves with profits left over. Because we operate using fiat currency, the US government simply "borrows" from itself to make massive infrastructure improvements. I'm talking massive. Lots of jobs are created with money flowing to...wait for it...people (instead of banks) and those people use that money to buy food, dishwashers, cars, houses, and everything else. All of that money flowing about improves the economy for vast amounts of Murricans!

US infrastructure is laughably outdated. Interest rates, as you note, are next to nothing. Why then are we not improving the f-ck out of our infrastructure, which creates lots and lots of private economy jobs, and lots of private economy buying/selling/profit?

The answer is that gub'mint is always evil, so we can't do that, not anymore.

Instead, we'll keep cutting taxes on the .01% so that they can hand their extra cash over to Wall St. criminals who will push that money around enough to earn themselves Fees, Bonuses and Commissions. And then when the next bubble created by the Wall St. criminals bursts, the .01% can again purchase land, equipment, business and licenses (real wealth) for firesale prices, which is a natural, legitimate right of our nobles.

All hail FreeMarket™.

It's not so much that, it's that most of the post WW2 recessions were deliberate ones that resulted from high interest rates from the federal reserve to reduce inflation. Once the Fed loosened monetary policy again, growth returned.

fredgraph.png


Remember, growth changes will trail federal funds rates by a bit. The relationship is extremely strong. It's one of the things you never hear about the 'Reagan miracle' or whatever. Yes, we experienced strong growth, but it was mostly due to the fed massively loosening monetary policy.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Nt6p4HK.png


Exactly. It's why fiscal policy was used to get the economy out of the doldrums in the past. Note the sharp upticks from past recessions when fiscal policy wasn't considered evil big gub'mint "crowding out" the holy FreeMarket™.

You "borrow" when interest rates are nothing. You use that capital to improve (here, the public good...I know, dirty dirty socialism) your "holdings" and when the bill needs paid, your improvements pay for themselves with profits left over. Because we operate using fiat currency, the US government simply "borrows" from itself to make massive infrastructure improvements. I'm talking massive. Lots of jobs are created with money flowing to...wait for it...people (instead of banks) and those people use that money to buy food, dishwashers, cars, houses, and everything else. All of that money flowing about improves the economy for vast amounts of Murricans!

US infrastructure is laughably outdated. Interest rates, as you note, are next to nothing. Why then are we not improving the f-ck out of our infrastructure, which creates lots and lots of private economy jobs, and lots of private economy buying/selling/profit?

The answer is that gub'mint is always evil, so we can't do that, not anymore.

Instead, we'll keep cutting taxes on the .01% so that they can hand their extra cash over to Wall St. criminals who will push that money around enough to earn themselves Fees, Bonuses and Commissions. And then when the next bubble created by the Wall St. criminals bursts, the .01% can again purchase land, equipment, business and licenses (real wealth) for firesale prices, which is a natural, legitimate right of our nobles.

All hail FreeMarket™.
It really has nothing to do with free markets or even big or small government, and everything to do with the douchebag party holding America's economy hostage because it isn't their guy in the White House.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
The raising of rates this summer feel premature to me as well. It feels like we are finally getting legs under this rebound. No need to knock them out so soon.
I predict that the Fed will not raise rates in June.
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
8,084
8,940
136
It's not so much that, it's that most of the post WW2 recessions were deliberate ones that resulted from high interest rates from the federal reserve to reduce inflation. Once the Fed loosened monetary policy again, growth returned.

Remember, growth changes will trail federal funds rates by a bit. The relationship is extremely strong. It's one of the things you never hear about the 'Reagan miracle' or whatever. Yes, we experienced strong growth, but it was mostly due to the fed massively loosening monetary policy.

It really has nothing to do with free markets or even big or small government, and everything to do with the douchebag party holding America's economy hostage because it isn't their guy in the White House.
If you want to see jobs and an improved economy, you invest in it. Especially when interest rates are basically zero.

We don't do that anymore, which was my point.

It's conventional wisdom that the "New Deal" didn't get us out of the great depression. First, it didn't "end" the great depression, but it did stop the economy from cratering further while keeping Americans working so that they didn't starve in greater numbers. Second, that investment, plus the massive stimulus otherwise known as WWII is what basically created the middle class.

Second, those massive deficits were then slowly paid off by the increased wealth of the private sector through taxes, which is a policy that controls the possible inflation of gub'mint using fiscal policy of spending. Of course, back when the middle class was forming and maintaining itself, we had tariffs and the upper tax rate was in the 70-90% category.

Since the late 70s early 80s, we've gutted the fiscal ability of the evil gub'mint to help the middle class. Tax rates are gutted ensuring that the richest people in the solar system no longer need to reinvest in their businesses through equipment, training, benefits, and hiring. Now they just take the money and run to India, or hand it to Wall St. criminals to inflate bubbles.

And no, we didn't bomb our competitors into dust. We dumped massive amounts of money into the US economy, first into the pockets of the rabble, who spent that money paying off debt, securing their themselves and their families, and finally into extra cash in bank accounts.

The important thing to remember is that the rabble got to touch that money a little bit before it ended up...where else...but in banks and corporate coffers.

That is my point.

I am not calling for the US Gub'mint to print $100T for each man, woman and child. I am saying that if the US government invested into the country that has been ignored the past 50+ years, it would create private sector jobs to complete all of the infrastructure work required to make the US first in the world again. Those jobs would allow people to pay off debts, secure themselves, and finally put some in their bank accounts...all the while banks and corporations would of course STILL get that money at the end of the day, because they always get that money anyway.

i.e. Fiscal policy of letting the rabble touch a few dollars before it goes to the banks, rather than monetary policy where a central bank credits other banks with money that they then sit on because it's virtually free.

Of course, my idea would be derided as socialism akin to fascist communist atheist islam, or something like that. Because freedom. Also, FreeMarket™.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
Amazingly, they havent pulled the plug on GDPNow yet. Q2 is looking almost as grim:

gdpnow_forecast_evolution.gif


Look how far below concensus it is, even though every single one of those concensus forecasters know about GDPNow.