Buttigieg and homophobia

[woolfe9998]

But my point (possible point, not certain about any of it) is that perhaps it's about an _interaction_ of age and race, not either on its own.

Yeah, you're saying that Biden steals all the older black voters because they love him while the younger ones are going with Warren or Sanders because they want someone progressive, which leaves none for Buttigieg. But Biden has 40% black support not 90%, which means some older blacks must be supporting a candidate other than Biden, but none are going to Buttigieg. Also, Buttigieg polls 6-12% with voters under 35 (depending on which poll and whether it's IA or nationwide) but zero among blacks. Which means he has some support among younger whites but no support among younger blacks.

The bottom line is that across the board, whether it's older or younger voters, Buttigieg does much better with white voters than black voters. If 62% of CA blacks voting to ban gay marriage while 53% of whites voted against it isn't the data point which explains this then I don't know what is, because all other explanations fall flat.

 

[dank69]

Buttigieg has had loads of press coverage for over 6 months now. He has appeared at every debate. His campaign has been doing outreach in AA communities for months. Low information cannot explain zero support under those circumstances. It can explain lower than expected support but not zero.

Your theory goes with the argument that if he wins Iowa/NH he will suddenly get more support because those wins will raise his profile. So it's going to possibly be put to the test. My bet is that he gets a small bump in black support but not a large one..

I'm talking about people that don't watch debates and don't read news. All their "news" comes from instagram/facebook/twitter and when people start talking politics? Unfriended/blocked. This is a large portion of America and perhaps a larger portion of the black community.

 

[woolfe9998]

I'm talking about people that don't watch debates and don't read news. All their "news" comes from instagram/facebook/twitter and when people start talking politics? Unfriended/blocked. This is a large portion of America and perhaps a larger portion of the black community.

That may be, but unless virtually all the blacks are low information voters then it can't explain zero support. And don't you think there are black people who are tuning in these days when they never did before? Heck, I have two white friends out in the mid west who barely paid any attention to politics but now with Trump they are political junkies. People of color have lots of skin in the game now, more than ever before.

It's being said that young people are becoming far more politically active in the Trump era, which is great. So why can Buttigieg get 12% support from 29 and under voters in the all white state of Iowa but only 6-8% nationally where the sample includes lots of younger black voters? People are making much of Buttigieg doing poorly among young voters but the truth is he's doing "meh OK" among younger whites but has no support from young blacks. Are you saying that all this increase in youth activism is only among young whites?

 

[dank69]

That may be, but unless virtually all the blacks are low information voters then it can't explain zero support. And don't you think there are black people who are tuning in these days when they never did before? Heck, I have two white friends out in the mid west who barely paid any attention to politics but now with Trump they are political junkies. People of color have lots of skin in the game now, more than ever before.

It's being said that young people are becoming far more politically active in the Trump era, which is great. So why can Buttigieg get 12% support from 29 and under voters in the all white state of Iowa but only 6-8% nationally where the sample includes lots of younger black voters? People are making much of Buttigieg doing poorly among young voters but the truth is he's doing "meh OK" among younger whites but has no support from young blacks. Are you saying that all this increase in youth activism is only among young whites?

I honestly don't know, just offering possible explanations. Would be interesting to see some data.

 

[Vic]

But a black could not win because of whites even then. We heard it here. But yeah, Pete is gay and those blacks might not support him in their ignorance. A very good reason to kick him down the road.

The reason the Obama won wasn't because of anything but people who raised hell and didn't sit back and wish upon a star with "I wish these poor people have rights someday but for now they must be second class citizens".

Behold the real Dem 'purity test.' Calling your fellow libs bigots if they don't vote for the gay guy rather than the candidate they believe is the most qualified. And it's gonna give Trump 4 more years. Enjoy.

 

[woolfe9998]

Behold the real Dem 'purity test.' Calling your fellow libs bigots if they don't vote for the gay guy rather than the candidate they believe is the most qualified. And it's gonna give Trump 4 more years. Enjoy.

No, they're only bigots if they don't vote for him because he's gay. And if that is, in fact, what is going on here, then we're better talking about it openly than sweeping it under the rug the way the media has been doing coming up with every cockamamie reason why he has no support from blacks and ignoring homophobia as even a contributing cause. We've got to clean the house or else every gay candidate who tries to run for POTUS with the dems will be a dead bang loser right out the box and that is not a good look for a progressive party. I don't see how bringing this up now helps Trump. It probably won't affect the election much one way or another. It's more about future elections.

 

[Vic]

No, they're only bigots if they don't vote for him because he's gay. And if that is, in fact, what is going on here, then we're better talking about it openly then sweeping it under the rug the way the media has been doing coming up with every cockamamie reason why he has no support from blacks and ignoring homophobia as even a contributing cause. We've got to clean the house or else every gay candidate who tries to run for POTUS with the dems will be a dead bang loser right out the box and that is not a good look for a progressive party. I don't see how bringing this up now helps Trump. It probably won't affect the election much one way or another. It's more about future elections.

What if he has no support among blacks because he's 37 years old and his greatest political achievement is that he was the mayor of South Bend, IN?

But nah.. you'd rather accuse blacks of being homophobes.. cause that's not bigoted or anything.

 

[woolfe9998]

What if he has no support among blacks because he's 37 years old and his greatest political achievement is that he was the mayor of South Bend, IN?

But nah.. you'd rather accuse blacks of being homophobes.. cause that's not bigoted or anything.

Yes, there are other reasons to not vote for Pete. But you've offered nothing to explain why those reasons are more important to black voters than they are to white voters, who Buttigieg is doing well with. That's the problem. If you're suggesting that political experience is a much larger factor for black voters than white voters then their backing Obama makes little sense since up to that point Obama was the least experienced major party candidate this country had seen in generations. So a partial term in the Senate over being only a mayor is the difference between massive support and zero support? I'm not buying it.

I think what you're doing is projecting one of your own reasons for not favoring Buttigieg onto black voters when in fact this reason is something that should more or less cross racial lines evenly and does not explain the huge racial divide in his support.

 

[Vic]

Yes, there are other reasons to not vote for Pete. But you've offered nothing to explain why those reasons are more important to black voters than they are to white voters, who Buttigieg is doing well with. That's the problem. If you're suggesting that political experience is a much larger factor for black voters than white voters then their backing Obama makes little sense since up to that point Obama was the least experienced major party candidate this country had seen in generations. So a partial term in the Senate over being only a mayor is the difference between massive support and zero support? I'm not buying it.

I think what you're doing is projecting one of your own reasons for not favoring Buttigieg onto black voters when in fact this reason is something that should more or less cross racial lines evenly and does not explain the huge racial divide in his support.

I think you're basing your logic on overstating Pete's support among white voters. He's only got 8% support from Dems overall in the latest USA Today polling.

 

[pmv]

Yeah, you're saying that Biden steals all the older black voters because they love him while the younger ones are going with Warren or Sanders because they want someone progressive, which leaves none for Buttigieg. But Biden has 40% black support not 90%, which means some older blacks must be supporting a candidate other than Biden, but none are going to Buttigieg. Also, Buttigieg polls 6-12% with voters under 35 (depending on which poll and whether it's IA or nationwide) but zero among blacks. Which means he has some support among younger whites but no support among younger blacks.

The bottom line is that across the board, whether it's older or younger voters, Buttigieg does much better with white voters than black voters. If 62% of CA blacks voting to ban gay marriage while 53% of whites voted against it isn't the data point which explains this then I don't know what is, because all other explanations fall flat.

It's absolutely possible the sexuality issue is a significant part of the problem, but, all the same, had he been noisily and aggressively progressive, about race and/or economics and the cross-over of the two, that might have been completely squashed as an issue for many black voters, particularly the young. Some issues that loom large in isolation can be completely ecliipsed if you believe someone's on your side on the big topics (like Trump's unChristian sexual behaviour and his supporters, I guess).

But I don't know, I don't have an especially positive impression of the guy myself, but I really don't know anything other than random entirely second-hand accounts (like reviews of his book). I don't get the impression he has done a great deal for black people in his home city - which apparently has a substantial racial wealth-gap.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Behold the real Dem 'purity test.' Calling your fellow libs bigots if they don't vote for the gay guy rather than the candidate they believe is the most qualified. And it's gonna give Trump 4 more years. Enjoy.

You have gone full Trump which I have never seen before. Again one should choose the person they most identify with and feel is qualified. I EXPLICITLY said that orientation should not matter so you are caught being dishonest in representing what I said. What I do say is that one should not exclude a candidate based on their race, orientation etc. If they fit the bill so to speak vote for them. If not then don't.

Very Trump indeed. Again I ask you back up your false statement by producing the contextual quotes I have made.

If you decide that being gay is the primary reason to exclude someone "for the greater good"? Yeah, you are a homophobe.

Not once, not at all ever, did I say that people who don't vote for someone is improper UNLESS IT'S BECAUSE they are gay or black or whatever.

That's not a difficult concept unless someone needs it to be.

 

[woolfe9998]

I think you're basing your logic on overstating Pete's support among white voters. He's only got 8% support from Dems overall in the latest USA Today polling.

Yes, that poll is pretty indicative since he averages 9.4% right now nationally across all polls.

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

But that's all dem voters, not white dem voters. He has low support among Hispanics and no support among blacks. These two groups together are a little under 40% of the dem electorate. That means support among white dems is closer to about 13%.

Considering there are 15 candidates, that's pretty good. Buttigieg is 4th overall nationally. He couldn't be 4th nationally out of 15 candidates with so little support from people of color unless he was doing relatively well with whites.

Edit: damn, just noticed that Bloomberg is suddenly polling 5th with 5%. I guess that's what money will buy you.

 

[HomerJS]

OMG so do we! So kewl!

LGBTQ conservatism in the United States - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Haha you are such a joke.

 

[Jhhnn]

But a black could not win because of whites even then. We heard it here. But yeah, Pete is gay and those blacks might not support him in their ignorance. A very good reason to kick him down the road.

The reason the Obama won wasn't because of anything but people who raised hell and didn't sit back and wish upon a star with "I wish these poor people have rights someday but for now they must be second class citizens".

"But" ignores everything you quoted. It's not just about black people. It's about how quickly attitudes change, about how old ways die hard. It takes time. Right, wrong or indifferent, that means Pete can't win the general election. Not in the real world.

 

[Vic]

"But" ignores everything you quoted. It's not just about black people. It's about how quickly attitudes change, about how old ways die hard. It takes time. Right, wrong or indifferent, that means Pete can't win the general election. Not in the real world.

I would argue that Pete could have a serious shot if he had some more political accomplishments under his belt.
But otherwise, I think HR jumped the shark in this thread.

 

[Jhhnn]

I would argue that Pete could have a serious shot if he had some more political accomplishments under his belt.
But otherwise, I think HR jumped the shark in this thread.

I doubt that. I think it's still too weird for a lot of people. They don't know how to fit a gay man as First Lady into their heads. It never occurred to them that such a thing was possible. They don't know what to do with it.

 

[Moonbeam]

My problem with all the candidates but Biden, Warren, and Sanders is that politically none of them are dry behind the ears, and baby faced Buttigieg, from nowhere, is a prime example. As a person who sees ego as the enemy of reality, his ambition which I see as rather presumptuous, as well as a number of others, gives me a bad reaction. I find that especially galling of those who deride candidates to their left. I have had enough of the so called American center. Democracy is dead and that requires a revolution to fix.

Biden has earned the trust of Black people so whether he fails to draw support from them it strikes me as quite natural. The fact that he is gay or simply an unknown, who can say since the results are exactly what you would expect. Pro Biden people are pro Biden and if they fail to support somebody other than him that is all the reason I need.