Originally posted by: tangent1138
Originally posted by: MrPabulum
Originally posted by: tangent1138
Originally posted by: irwincur
I think the lefties here are blowing everything WAAAAAAAY out of proportion. A side benefit of that is that you are beginning to look like absolute fools. Go check yourself in somewhere and get some help. Paranoia is not healthy.
Your ignorance isn't healthy. The reality is that Iran is our best potential ally in the whole middle east. A large portion of the country is young, educated, and yearning for democracy. That said, threatening them with war or attacking them, even their nuclear reactors will inevitably cause them to pull into their shell and become nationalistic, as would any nation attacked. If that happens, there will NOT be a revolution from within so that we can "stand with them", as GW hinted at in the State of the Union address.
The reality is this: how many Islamic countries can we keep threatening to attack before they all unify against us, even Jordan and Saudi Arabia? GW is playing russian roulette, and we don't have many cylinders left.
You're right. A large portion of their country is young, educated and yearning for democracy. But you immediately strip them raw of their intelligence by assuming that they would be peeved at President Bush for destroying the mullahs' nuclear capacity. The Iranian reform movement has serious issues with the current Islamic regime. Far from joining the leadership in pulling into some jingoistic nationalistic shell, the reform movement would finally have an opportunity to properly challenge the autocracy. Conservatives are not seeking anything resembling a full-scale invasion. Michael Ledeen, who is the strongest proponent for regime change in Iran, argues against military action similar to our Iraq expedition. Iran's reform movement needs strong open support from Western leaders. The mullahcracy is ready to collapse, but the reformers will not take the next step without our encouragement. Moreover, the Iranians have the best chance at attaining stable, liberal government; the storied history of the Persians is more conducive towards such a task. A friendly Iran would make stabilizing the Iraqi situation all the easier.
Now, if Iran's nuclear capacity becomes a problem, I do not doubt that the President will use some sort of military force. President Bush will not allow Iran to become another North Korea. But full-scale war? Not really in the cards.
I don't think I strip them of their intelligence. I think it's a matter of a possible sequence of events. If the bombs fall, even in a limited strike to strip them of their nuclear capability, there will be collateral damage. No matter how precise, innocent Iranians will die. Never underestimate the power of a single image of an Iranian child being pulled from the rubble to polarize the masses against Western meddling in Muslim affairs. I think it's difficult at that point to make the claim, "But we're doing this for your freedom!"
What other encouragement did you have in mind? I seem to remember some encouragement at the Bay of Pigs that didn't go so well...
But are we talking about the masses or the Iranian reform movement, which is rooted within their university system and is fairly intellectual in substance? There were many Western pundits who believed that solving a potential problem in Iran was more important than Iraq (and of course, vice-versa), and better enabled due to a surging university-based reform movement. I could certainly see the mullahs using a dead Iranian child as propaganda, and that might sway those who have nothing to do with the reform movement. To what degree, neither you or I can say. Of course, it may not come to that.
Open moral and political support must come from the entire Western world, not just the United States. Western leaders, from Bush to Blair to Howard to Chirac, Schroeder, etc. must declare that the Iranians have rights to freedoms that the mullahs are denying them. Bay of Pigs, disaster that it was, is not relevant. We are not interested in covertly invading Iran with several thousand exiles to incite regime change, as those who would pressure regime change already live and suffer there. In a recent article Michael Ledeen makes a good case:
"It would be an error of enormous proportions if, on the verge of a revolutionary transformation of the Middle East, we backed away from this historic mission. It would be doubly tragic if we did it because of one of two possible failures of vision: insisting on focusing on Iraq alone, and viewing military power as the prime element in our revolutionary strategy. Revolution often comes from the barrel of a gun, but not always. Having demonstrated our military might, we must now employ our political artillery against the surviving terror masters. The great political battlefield in the Middle East is, as it has been all along, Iran, the mother of modern terrorism, the creator of Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, and the prime mover of Hamas. When the murderous mullahs fall in Tehran, the terror network will splinter into its component parts, and the jihadist doctrine will be exposed as the embodiment of failed lies and misguided messianism.
The instrument of their destruction is democratic revolution, not war, and the first salvo in the political battle of Iran is national referendum. Let the Iranian people express their desires in the simplest way possible: "Do you want an Islamic republic?" Send Lech Walesa and Vaclav Havel to supervise the vote. Let the contending parties compete openly and freely, let newspapers publish, let radios and televisions broadcast, fully supported by the free nations. If the mullahs accept this gauntlet, I have every confidence that Iran will be on the path to freedom within months. If, fearing a massive rejection from their own people, the tyrants of Tehran reject a free referendum and reassert their repression, then the free nations will know it is time to deploy the full panoply of pressure to enable the Iranians to gain their freedom.
The time is now. Faster, please."
Of course, Ledeen is considered a neocon, and many members of the Left vehemently dislike the man and his views. Nonetheless, I think he makes a good case for regime change in Iran.