Originally posted by: beyoku
I have paid much attention to these events as i have family and a spouse currently in Ethiopia.....So i may be biased.
Some background
-Ethiopia is over 40% Muslim for the record.
-Ethiopia and Somalia do NOT need war at this time. Both countries are weak and a major part of Somalia is trying to deal with a natural disaster. Ethiopia has just overcome natural disasters as well.
-Ethiopia is the 4th poorest country on the planet and im sure Somalia is less that 3 slots away - give or take. They need to spend the money building up their infrastructure instead of war. Ethiopia needs to learn with its wasting of money on fighting Eritrea for 20+years.
-Somali has not had a govt for over 15 year and the
Union of Islamic courts (UIC) DID defeat the warlords and bring stability to the country UNDER their control...And the capital. And they did it VERY FAST and were VERY EFFECTIVE. So this is something they can do, bring stability.
-The U.I.C. does want to bring a strict interpretation of Sharia law to Somalia. The have already taken steps like banning the popular stimulant Khat (That people have been chewing for 400 of years). They also banned the watching of soccer, one person died over it. Also calling for death to folks that don't pray their 5 times a day. etc etc etc. Although BUSH says that the UIC have ties to alqueda it seems highly unlikely. We probably have ZERO evidence of this. Bush may be confusing the history of Somalia with Sudan.
The issue.
The main issue is that the UIC has setup shop successfully in Mogadishu and wants to also take control for the struggling interim government. The interim government wants a secular state and NOT an Islamic one. Ethiopia is backing the Interim government. Eritrea, Ethiopia's enemy to the north (who still has issues over border demarcation in the war that ended fairly recent - 2000 ) is supporting the UIC with weapons. Both Ethiopia and Eritrea have soldiers in Somalia supporting either side.
The latest, and even bigger problem and what really cannot be ignored by Ethiopia is the UIC speaking of
'bringing their Somalian brothers back into Somalia' in effect EXPANDING Somalia to include regions of Ethiopia and Kenya where ethnic Somalians live. See.....Now that UIC is speaking of a land grab and taking parts of Ethiopia. (Ogaden region, if you look at a map of Ethiopia/Somalia, UIC wants to cut off the entire horn) Ethiopia has also gone to war over this and has been an issue since 1960's. UIC would be breaking a treaty signed in the late 80's by making such a move.
The icing on the cake would be when the UIC declared "Jihad" on Ethiopia, using islam as their tool and the people of Somalia as tools as they attempt to change the scope of the entire issue. There are also Ethnic issues between Ethio/Somali that are beyond the scope of the thread.
In a conventional war UIC would get their assses handed to them. OTOH UIC has women fighters fresh of the streets and also child recruits that are 13,14,15 etc.
Well the
wost can happen in 2 days seeing that UIC has given Ethiopia 7 days - 5 days ago.
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>Ethiopia also is telling some Somalis to come to their side of the border.</a>
This could and probably will destabilize the entire horn of Africa. Ethiopia is Bush's ally in the war on terror. Of course the west will back Ethiopia. The west doesn't want to see an Islamic State (at least a NEW one) regardless of how successful it is. And in any case the whole "Jihad against Ethiopia" is bogus - In 615 Muhammed's wife and cousin sought refuge at Axum (Ethiopia) with a number of his followers under the protection of Negus Armah.
The Prophet himself instructed his followers to respect and protect Ethiopians.
edit: cherry on the icing: Both Eritrea and UIC have been training/supplying Ethiopian rebel factions within Ethiopia and across the border.