Brexit Deal Voted down in "Historic Defeat" according to BBC News site (Brexit still happening but PM May is in trouble)

[pmv]

It's real as far as I know.

That name "BritainBitesBack" is just pure Al Murray, is all (the 'official' is the cherry on top).

The whole country is increasingly a parody of itself.

 

[IronWing]

For those of us that haven’t been paying attention, when is the current deadline for a hard brexit?

 

[K1052]

Meanwhile...


Brexit is costing the UK economy $1 billion a week. And it could get worse

The economy is now 2% smaller than it would have been if the United Kingdom had chosen to remain in the bloc, according to the Bank of England. The economic output lost since the referendum is worth about £800 million ($1 billion) per week, or £4.7 million ($6 million) per hour.

The economic consequences have piled up despite there having been no structural changes yet to Britain's trading relationship with EU nations or the rest of the world.

The United Kingdom was the fastest growing G7 economy when voters went to the polls in 2016. Emergency action by the Bank of England helped the UK economy avoid the recession that some had predicted would follow a vote in favor of Brexit, and unemployment remains very low.

But the country still fell toward the bottom of the G7 ranking. Economic growth has slumped from an annual pace of around 2% to less than 1% now.

Investment by UK companies stalled after the referendum and then plunged 3.7% in 2018. Meanwhile, the rest of the G7 has seen business investment grow around 6% a year since the vote.

And business confidence in Britain has slumped to the lowest level in almost a decade.

Many banks have set up new offices in Germany, France, Ireland and other EU countries to safeguard their regional business after Brexit. Financial services companies also have to move substantial assets there to satisfy EU regulators. Assets worth at least £1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) are leaving the country, according to consultancy EY.

Sony (SNE) and Panasonic (PCRFF) are both moving their European headquarters to the Netherlands.
Manufacturing companies, which need their supply chains to function seamlessly, have also made changes.

Nissan (NSANF) has scrapped plans to build a new model in the United Kingdom, citing uncertainty over Brexit. German engineering group Schaeffler (SCFLF) is shutting two of its three factories in Britain for the same reason.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/22/business/brexit-uk-economic-damage/index.html

 

[K1052]

For those of us that haven’t been paying attention, when is the current deadline for a hard brexit?

April 12 if Parliament does not ok May's deal.

 

[IronWing]

April 12 if Parliament does not ok May's deal.

Oh.


Can we have your stuff?

 

[K1052]

Oh.


Can we have your stuff?

I'm not there. I just relax by reading about something more fucked up than our own government.

 

[SMOGZINN]

So how much of a loss would it be to lose the little 'say' we had, that was in any case more-often-than-not used to push policies I didn't want anyway?

The problem is that if you do not have representation they don't have to take you into consideration when negotiating deals or passing laws. It makes you an easy target for the 'costs' with out having to consider if you get your fair share of the benefits.

The only way I could translate those voting patterns into a coherent position was "We don't want to choose no-deal, but if it happens through our inaction, we're OK with that".

I read someone say that this whole thing feels like the UK jumped out of an airplane and is now voting whether to hit the ground or not.

 

[Maxima1]

UK WarGames

 

[ElFenix]

i would definitely trust this guy to run a day care:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1110852010528505858

 

[zinfamous]

Just do a hard Brexit and roll with it. The electricity will still be on, the ports still work, everything will be ok. And they’ll be their own country again.

what a terribly stupid thing that you are thinking here.

 

[Triloby]

I don't think anyone has pointed out just how severe the situation with Northern Ireland would be if hard borders and checkpoints were to be instated, because a no-deal scenario would be in violation of the Good Friday Agreement. I'm pretty curious if violence and turmoil would immediately start happening the moment hard borders are enacted in Northern Ireland?

Never mind the fact that one big reason why Brexit is a colossal mess is because of Northern Ireland.

 

[hal2kilo]

That name "BritainBitesBack" is just pure Al Murray, is all (the 'official' is the cherry on top).

The whole country is increasingly a parody of itself.

This country voted Trump in for president remember.

 

[IronWing]

I don't think anyone has pointed out just how severe the situation with Northern Ireland would be if hard borders and checkpoints were to be instated, because a no-deal scenario would be in violation of the Good Friday Agreement. I'm pretty curious if violence and turmoil would immediately start happening the moment hard borders are enacted in Northern Ireland?

Never mind the fact that one big reason why Brexit is a colossal mess is because of Northern Ireland.

A hard border would certainly not be helpful but I don't see an immediate return to violence unless the British government returns to its violent policies of the past. If the British government continues to treat all its citizens with dignity and is respectful of human and civil rights, violence will likely not return. The success of the Good Friday Agreement is due in large part to the British government keeping its promises.

The hard economic times coming from Brexit will also not be helpful at all to continued peace in Northern Ireland.

 

[Indus]

I think there is a vast underestimation of an exodus if a brexit occurs.

Think of it along the lines of the exodus from Italy. That country has lost 15% of its population moving abroad for better economic opportunities and most of them are the young people.

Certainly not enough to cripple the country but enough to be a major problem for growth.

The same might happen with Brexit.

 

[UNCjigga]

I know nothing of what power the crown still wields in British affairs of state...but at some point could the Queen just intervene to avoid a hard Brexit? Wasn't there some shenanigans a few months back where some MP attempted to march the sceptre out of parliament (a symbol of the Crown granting authority to Parliament?)

 

[pmv]

i would definitely trust this guy to run a day care:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1110852010528505858

I believe a fabricant is like a replicant, but less realistic-looking.

 

[Jhhnn]

I believe a fabricant is like a replicant, but less realistic-looking.

That's a fake blonde Beatles mop, right?

 

[pmv]

The problem is that if you do not have representation they don't have to take you into consideration when negotiating deals or passing laws. It makes you an easy target for the 'costs' with out having to consider if you get your fair share of the benefits.

In theory, yes, that's why it would be better to just stay in. But in practice there are many ways one can find oneself in a 'group' that doesn't get properly represented, nationality is only one of them. "The British" is only one group I'm a member of. As I said, the 'represenatation' I mostly ended up with in the EU consisted disproportionately of Brits I don't like and who don't share my interests (a fucktonne of Tories, for one thing and at one point, for a short time, actual fascists). So for me, I'm not sure the loss would be that huge.

It's starting to look as if that's the best one can hope for now.

I read someone say that this whole thing feels like the UK jumped out of an airplane and is now voting whether to hit the ground or not.

That would be Welsh Bloke, of this parish.

 

[pmv]

That's a fake blonde Beatles mop, right?

I don't actually know (but it seems likely). perhaps it's just dyed? He's a Tory MP who pops up on TV every now-and-then. Seems rather generic apart from the personal 'style'.

 

[hal2kilo]

That's a fake blonde Beatles mop, right?

Haven't seen one of those since about 6th grade.

 

[pmv]

I think there is a vast underestimation of an exodus if a brexit occurs.

Think of it along the lines of the exodus from Italy. That country has lost 15% of its population moving abroad for better economic opportunities and most of them are the young people.

Certainly not enough to cripple the country but enough to be a major problem for growth.

The same might happen with Brexit.

Interesting point, but...where would they go? Who would take them?

At the moment the UK is up there with Ireland and France in having a growing population, it's the east and south of the EU that are really losing people (many of them of course have moved to the UK - it was very noticable when suddenly one was hearing Greek and Italian in the streets, just as it was when Polish became commonplace). As you say, Italy is bleeding young people. So it would take a great deal of movement to reverse the situation. And I don't see many places that are booming.

There was a time, in the era of "auf weidersen pet" when UK workers took advantage of free movement to go work in Germany, and I guess it was around that same time that London started to depopulate. But for a long time the movement has been overwhelmingly the other way.

Part of what makes it hard to work out what is going to happen is that nothing seems to be going particularly well anywhere. Even Germany is not the great success story it's sometimes depicted as (hence a quasi-fascist party being the second largest party in the country, hence German workers wages having been as stagnant as lower-income Americans). Macron is deeply unpopular in France.

I'm sure Brexit will hit the UK economy (massively so if it's "no deal"). Could be back to the grim early '80s, but even if it gets bad I don't see where people are going to exodise to. After all, in the early '80s we were in the EU, so could make use of free-movement. That's exactly what people won't be able to do this time!

 

[dawp]

I believe a fabricant is like a replicant, but less realistic-looking.

trump has started cloning himself

 

[Indus]

Interesting point, but...where would they go? Who would take them?

There's a lot of brits in Spain, Germany and Australia/ NZ who live abroad for economic reasons. Also the brits have the gap year culture embedded into them, so a lot travel abroad to assess options before even going to university.

That makes going abroad a lot easier than the American "its so far away" or "its a shithole" attitude.

 

[pmv]

There's a lot of brits in Spain, Germany and Australia/ NZ who live abroad for economic reasons. Also the brits have the gap year culture embedded into them, so a lot travel abroad to assess options before even going to university.

That makes going abroad a lot easier than the American "its so far away" or "its a shithole" attitude.

Ah but that's while we are still in the EU! It won't be so easy to go to Spain or Germany post-Brexit. Plus most of those in Spain are retired or running guest houses (and are there more for the weather and perhaps food than economic opportunities). And I don't believe there are that many currently in Germany - maybe a few high-skilled people. Australia, maybe, but that's a very long way to go, and Australia itself doesn't seem to be that welcoming to foreign migrants these days, and not exclusively the non-white ones.

If there were obvious places to go, I'm sure there would be an exodus. But I suspect the grimness will manifest itself in other ways. That is the scary thing, economic downturns usually have other knock-on effects. When bad economic things happen, bad political things follow.

 

[Indus]

Ah but that's while we are still in the EU! It won't be so easy to go to Spain or Germany post-Brexit. Plus most of those in Spain are retired or running guest houses (and are there more for the weather and perhaps food than economic opportunities). And I don't believe there are that many currently in Germany - maybe a few high-skilled people. Australia, maybe, but that's a very long way to go, and Australia itself doesn't seem to be that welcoming to foreign migrants these days, and not exclusively the non-white ones.

If there were obvious places to go, I'm sure there would be an exodus. But I suspect the grimness will manifest itself in other ways. That is the scary thing, economic downturns usually have other knock-on effects. When bad economic things happen, bad political things follow.

I think most Brits like to retire in Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and the Caribbean where they get much more return for their pounds and they can afford to live in the local pubs with the bargirls.

Spain is expensive compared to them so not so much.. the guest houses things are true. But didn't the EU suggest it would give citizenship to those who want to stay in the EU post brexit? There's also the old marriage and get a residency visa thing.

P.S. From looking at exchange rates.. the Aussies, Kiwis and Brits are already in a recession. The US will probably follow soon in about 18 months.