Boogie2988: The 2nd Big Gaming Crash is Coming . . .

[Bateluer]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDTg8gADBHU

In the 1980's the gaming industry expereinced a huge crash that almost ended gaming forever. I think we're approaching a second huge game crash and in this video I detail why I think so and what we can do prevent it.

He's not alone in seeing these trends, I know several here, including myself, have talked about it multiple times in multiple threads.

 

[davie jambo]

Nonsense , there is a sufficient customer base to support gaming for as long as it's popular

Look at the sales of destiny for example ...

 

[Bateluer]

Look at the sales of destiny for example ...

A game with a 500 million dollar budget. Thats the problem. If it doesn't make significantly more than that in profit, its bad. Thats the kind of miscalculation that can send a company straight into full blown bankruptcy.

 

[davie jambo]

A game with a 500 million dollar budget. Thats the problem. If it doesn't make significantly more than that in profit, its bad. Thats the kind of miscalculation that can send a company straight into full blown bankruptcy.

Games can flop yes but so can anything with a big budget

To say the industry is on the verge of collapse when new games are breaking all records for sales is a bit crazy

 

[motsm]

Games can flop yes but so can anything with a big budget

To say the industry is on the verge of collapse when new games are breaking all records for sales is a bit crazy

It's not that crazy when you look more at some of the games that actually do flop. A lot of them sell a million or more copies and are well received games. Studios these days just seem to be burning through money though, looking at those record breaking sales like they are a guarantee.

That said, I don't consider myself an expert enough to comment beyond speculation on the entire industry crashing, I'm just saying that it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[HitAnyKey]

The Youtuber makes some good points but I am not convinced his theory is correct.
Notwithstanding His credibility is diminished by his broadcast from an obvious bedroom with posters and bedding and all. It's a bit silly and looks more like a rant than a warning.

I don't see the Gaming industry crashing anytime soon. There might be some fine tuning and some more bankruptcies but not a complete gaming crash. For that to happen people will need to stop buying games period.

Not going to happen.

 

[nurturedhate]

The gaming industry is not sufficiently different from the movie industry which has sustained massive flops since its inception. They still make movies. Massive budget movies at that.

 

[zebrax2]

I think there will be a crash pretty soon but not for the entire market but only the indie/crowd funding scene.

 

[SunnyD]

A game with a 500 million dollar budget. Thats the problem. If it doesn't make significantly more than that in profit, its bad. Thats the kind of miscalculation that can send a company straight into full blown bankruptcy.

One game/dev/publisher does not an industry make.

Gaming crash? Hell no. In fact, we're probably entering a renaissance of sorts where only the strong (indie) games survive. And by indie, I mean these games with semi-self-backed funding that are pre-bought by users vetting out reputable devs. See titles like Star Citizen and whatnot (though I'm sure several people will argue with me on that). It will be more thing of supply fitting the demand, where devs start listening to their audiences and making the titles that the people want, rather than throwing crap against a wall and seeing what sticks.

The side effect is that there will be less surprise hits and mega-smashes/mega-bombs, but there will be more honest money happening. And a lot less waste.

That's my take on it.

 

[Skott]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDTg8gADBHU



He's not alone in seeing these trends, I know several here, including myself, have talked about it multiple times in multiple threads.

FUD

 

[darkewaffle]

He's not alone in seeing these trends, I know several here, including myself, have talked about it multiple times in multiple threads.

So doesn't that just mean multiple people have been wrong multiple times? Or are you allowed to just insist it's coming "soon" perpetually?

Just because people don't like the state of the industry doesn't mean there's anything wrong with it. Yes I know DLC and DRM and MS and EA and D3 and CONSOLES and so on and so forth aren't your cup of tea. But financially, things are fairly peachy.

Edit: Bahahahaha as soon as I click on the video that is exactly what I think someone who would say something like this looks like.

 

[Borealis7]

AAA crash, maybe. but kickstarter and indie games are rising up to fill the void.
3 most anticipated PC games of 2015 are kickstarted, no?

but this points out the real problem: publishers. cut them out, and you get beautiful and fun games.

 

[AyashiKaibutsu]

I don't think you'll see a literal crash of the entire game industry again. Even in the 80ies it was just of the western game industry. Now, with everything so fluid, you'll just get major paradigm shifts and companies losing huge profits/taking losses over their foolishness in what would otherwise have completely shut down in the industry in the past. Worst that will happen is perhaps a major player leaving the market (goddess, I hope that's EA and maybe Microsoft consoles and knock some sense into nintendo while things are at it).

 

[davie jambo]

AAA crash, maybe. but kickstarter and indie games are rising up to fill the void.
3 most anticipated PC games of 2015 are kickstarted, no?

but this points out the real problem: publishers. cut them out, and you get beautiful and fun games.

If you never had a publisher then games would end up delayed and not completed or worse not even funded

Anyway there is going to be no crash as the market is worth billions of pounds. Only way for a crash to happen would be these billions of pounds of sales to disappear and that is not going to happen because people will always buy games

 

[TheSlamma]

I don't see a crash even close to happening, with indy and small studio's like Klei Entertainment, Runic games and Playdead I think gaming is not only getting better games like Mark of the Ninja, Bastion, Limbo, Torchlight, Trine etc these games take less overhead to create and we now have a wider swath of companies to fall back on for games.

Back when ET bombed out it was due to there only being a few companies out there that could create and get published. He takes a swipe at Steam which IMO Greenlight is enabling many good and of course multiples more of bad games, but most people avoid those bad games. Also people buying bad games doesn't destroy the industry, there is always someone out there wanting to buy a good game and someone wanting to make a good game now.

I know there are a lot of threads in here with people giving up on gaming and that is fine you can blame the games all you want, but maybe you are just tired of gaming or grown out of it and need new hobbies. Everyone wants to think their standards are so unreachable so they can put blame on other things as to why they don't do them.

 

[Bateluer]

One game/dev/publisher does not an industry make.

The budget for Destiny isn't limited to Activision. You see the same thing at every other AAA publisher. Massive, bloated marketing budgets that mean even if the game sells 10 million copies, it can still be a commercial failure.

So doesn't that just mean multiple people have been wrong multiple times? Or are you allowed to just insist it's coming "soon" perpetually?

So far, our predictions have held true. Its more of a question of 'when' and of 'how much gamers are will to take before hitting the breaking point'.

I'm also not surprised to see people trashing Boogie, which is disheartening. He's one of the better YouTube personalities out there.

 

[SunnyD]

The budget for Destiny isn't limited to Activision. You see the same thing at every other AAA publisher. Massive, bloated marketing budgets that mean even if the game sells 10 million copies, it can still be a commercial failure.

That may be true, but for every one 500m production they work on, they're working on 20+ <5m productions that have the potential to wipe that 500m slate clean and then some.

It's all calculated risk for those AAA houses. They won't be going out of business any time soon unless they do something stupid management-wise like THQ or Atari did.

 

[ImpulsE69]

I don't see a crash even close to happening, with indy and small studio's like Klei Entertainment, Runic games and Playdead I think gaming is not only getting better games like Mark of the Ninja, Bastion, Limbo, Torchlight, Trine etc these games take less overhead to create and we now have a wider swath of companies to fall back on for games.

Back when ET bombed out it was due to there only being a few companies out there that could create and get published. He takes a swipe at Steam which IMO Greenlight is enabling many good and of course multiples more of bad games, but most people avoid those bad games. Also people buying bad games doesn't destroy the industry, there is always someone out there wanting to buy a good game and someone wanting to make a good game now.

I know there are a lot of threads in here with people giving up on gaming and that is fine you can blame the games all you want, but maybe you are just tired of gaming or grown out of it and need new hobbies. Everyone wants to think their standards are so unreachable so they can put blame on other things as to why they don't do them.

I think it's the AAA games that are going to suffer, not the Indie games. When a game (ala Tomb Raider) can sell 5-6 million copies and considered a failure, then there is an issue whether anyone wants to admit it or not. It's not the gamers 'expecting' too much. That mindset is completely backwards and anti consumer. CONSUMERS ARE RIGHT. Period. The fact that companies have forgotten that is why so many struggle these days. If half your budget is marketing? Guess what, you're an asshole and deserve to lose your money.

As long as most of the crowd funding games are not complete wastes of time and they actually deliver more or less their promise, they will be around. It's when people take the money and run that people will sour on it. Obviously with gaming you can't please everyone all the time, but there's a difference between varying opinions on a game, and flat out ripping people off with false expectations (ala Destiny) or Aliens Colonial Marines.

There is a clear difference in gaming now vs 15-20 years ago. Small studios make games because they want to make games. They are gamers. Do they want to make money? Sure, but their goals are different than large studios. Large studios make games because they want money. If the execs were ever gamers, they are long since over that. It's all about bottom line and maximum return. That isn't to say they make bad games (because the peons that work for them are probably game lovers), but they aren't allowed to make the game they want. Again I say it, if 1/2 your game budget is marketing you've already failed at the the idea. People at that level are only looking at numbers. That is all you are to them, and they don't actually care if you like the game or not. A sale is a sale.

 

[Rakewell]

Yeah,

I don't remember having the ability to Google in the '80s - so his argument is flawed.

No one I know buys a game without reading online about it first - and despite the various biased reviews, one can figure out how good a game is.

-Have a console, and not sure to buy? Rent it and see for yourself.
-Have a PC, but aren't sure if it's for you? Wait for a Steam sale. Or GOG. Or whatever.

My 2 cents.

 

[mizzou]

this is the moat informed age of the consumer ever. Not too long ago, u only had magazine ads and MAYBE a preview play by a pc news magazine. Games often did not appear as advertised. Nowadays you know almost exactly what u are getting into....however i do see game developers frequently falling in a dangerous fail to deliver scheme. maaaaany alpha/beta early access games have not and will not meet the expectations often written in writing of what the finished product will be.

 

[ImpulsE69]

Yeah,

I don't remember having the ability to Google in the '80s - so his argument is flawed.

No one I know buys a game without reading online about it first - and despite the various biased reviews, one can figure out how good a game is.

-Have a console, and not sure to buy? Rent it and see for yourself.
-Have a PC, but aren't sure if it's for you? Wait for a Steam sale. Or GOG. Or whatever.

My 2 cents.

Completely agree, except all the pre-orders would disagree.

 

[shortylickens]

IF it happens we did it to ourselves.

We pay way too much for Call of Duty 1 thru 15 and encourage companies to constantly put out overpriced crap. A system like that cant sustain itself forever. Eventually people with either wise up, or go broke. In either case companies that have relied on easy money for a weak product will find themselves dying,

 

[imaheadcase]

Gaming was even lucky to even exist in the 80s, so it was easy to fail. Arcades was popular still.

The only thing that is heading for a crash I would say is AAA games. I buy more indie games than anything anymore.

 

[mizzou]

Wasn't there a time in age when encores were solely for great video games or video games that did very well on the market. It seems now that Gainesville come out expecting with multiple encores released at certain dates and times regardless of how the game from forms spore was a terrible video game not worthy of any encore get it had multiple

 

[TheSlamma]

IF it happens we did it to ourselves.

We pay way too much for Call of Duty 1 thru 15 and encourage companies to constantly put out overpriced crap. A system like that cant sustain itself forever. Eventually people with either wise up, or go broke. In either case companies that have relied on easy money for a weak product will find themselves dying,

If $60 every year is breaking peoples life savings and making them "broke" then gaming is not the problem