BoJ resorts to negative interest rates. The desperation is real.

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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,050
55,538
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Given the role interest rates play in TIPS, bonds, annuities etc and those inclusions in a variety of wrappers including pensions the effect of interest rates reaches much farther than income from 'interest' alone.

https://www.ebri.org/pdf/PR-1031.25June13.Notes-Ret.pdf

Well sure, but the negative effects of raising interest rates also play into a lot of things as well, pensions specifically. That study you linked showed a very modest decline for people already in retirement and a more significant one for people further away from retirement.

Know what hurts your retirement planning worse than low interest rates? Not having a job.
 

Exterous

Super Moderator
Jun 20, 2006
20,582
3,791
126
Well sure, but the negative effects of raising interest rates also play into a lot of things as well, pensions specifically.

:confused:

Pension plans generally benefit from higher rates

U.S. corporate pension plans will remain underfunded at the end of this year but could reach full funding in 2018 if interest rates increase as expected, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

Defined benefit pensions are in long-term decline, as increasing life expectancy has caused employers to balk at the prospect of guaranteeing incomes long into the future. But much money remains tied up in such plans — and falling interest rates have been disastrous for them.

One of the overlooked victims of the fall and fall of interest rates are corporate pension plans which are facing a ballooning liability even as returns stay tepid.

In a report, the OECD said its main worry is that pension funds and life insurance companies, desperate to match the levels of returns promised to policyholders and beneficiaries when interest rates were higher, will join the “search for yield.”
Pension funds and life insurers “are feeling the pressure to chase yield themselves, and to pursue higher-risk investment strategies that could ultimately undermine their solvency.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-column-saft-idUSBRE87D03U20120814
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e9294b96-5236-11e5-b029-b9d50a74fd14.html#axzz3yfOCtWml
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/low-rates-threaten-solvency-of-pension-funds-insurers-2015-06-24
http://ww2.cfo.com/retirement-plans/2015/12/pension-plan-funding-rise-interest-rates/
https://content.pncmc.com/live/pnc/institutionalinvestments/institutional-insights/II%20Strategy%20Quarterly_4Q13.pdf


That study you linked showed a very modest decline for people already in retirement and a more significant one for people further away from retirement.

My point is that there is more to interest rates than a 'very small portion of overall income.' as illustrated by a drop of 22% for a large age group
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,050
55,538
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It seems that all of these links are saying that -all other things being equal- pensions would benefit from higher interest rates. The thing is that all things wouldn't be equal with higher interest rates. Or even remotely close to equal.

Low interest rates might not be good for pensions, but my strong suspicion is that an economic depression is even worse. This has to be accounted for.

My point is that there is more to interest rates than a 'very small portion of overall income.' as illustrated by a drop of 22% for a large age group

Fair point, but if you're going to bring up other areas that higher interest rates affect then you're going to have to account for job losses and other things of that sort. I saw no indication that the analysis accounted for that, it appears to assume employment will stay the same with higher rates which is definitely not true.
 

Sonikku

Lifer
Jun 23, 2005
15,908
4,940
136
I'm not really sure how to solve their problems. It's not like Japan is a country of lounge about do nothings that don't work hard enough. If anything their problem would seem to be that their citizens live so long that they the system is feeling the constraints of paying for the increased life expectancy.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
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I'm not really sure how to solve their problems. It's not like Japan is a country of lounge about do nothings that don't work hard enough. If anything their problem would seem to be that their citizens live so long that they the system is feeling the constraints of paying for the increased life expectancy.

It's the same problem as here - misallocation of capital, zombie corporations that produce no or negtive value (and reduce the ability of other companies to produce value in turn), and too much debt at all levels that needs to be discharged. Instead capital continues to be misallocated by propping up companies and debtors and now allowing consolidation and bankruptcies to clear to deadwood, and Keynesians want even more total debt in the system. Evidently no amount of leverage is too high for them, and demand will always exist to match any level of supply.
 

Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
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It's the same problem as here - misallocation of capital, zombie corporations that produce no or negtive value (and reduce the ability of other companies to produce value in turn), and too much debt at all levels that needs to be discharged.
Exactly. Instead of letting bad debts go unpaid and letting bad companies die, they resorted to bailouts. Lots and lots of bailouts. Instead of seeing real companies like Facebook and Toyota grow to fill a gap left by failed companies, Japan is filled with poorly managed companies similar to Myspace and GM, and they only exist because of government bailouts. Zombie banks, zombie paper companies, zombie steel companies, zombie toy companies, etc. It's central planning taken to the extreme. Imagine an economy where every business is run like GM. You can see how that would lead to a very long period of economic depression.

I know it's really painful to let debts go bad, but it needs to happen. It's a natural part of the business cycle. I smile when I hear about Americans walking away from homes with negative equity. That's exactly what you're supposed to do. We can't grow an economy when people are drowning in mortgage debt, student debt or any other kind of unproductive debt. I'm one of the loudest critics of government-backed student loans because we know from experience and general common sense that weighing people down with debt will slow the rate of future growth. People can't buy a house if they owe 100k in student loans but they only make 30k per year. Allowing students to get rid of student debt through bankruptcy would be an enormous help to our economy.
 

BonzaiDuck

Lifer
Jun 30, 2004
16,748
2,106
126
Considering the overwhelming evidence that just came from the financial crisis as to the effectiveness of Keynesian economics you're probably right. If you're still clinging to the idea that it doesn't work after all that you're basically immune to evidence.



Yes, do you even economics though? haha. You clearly don't even understand what you're arguing against.

Marginal propensity to consume is an attribute of people or a society as a whole, mostly defined by each individual's income level, not interest rates. MPC affects aggregate demand by how it acts as a multiplier on disposable income. Lower interest rates can increase disposable income through increases in asset prices or less money paid in interest, but the purpose of lower interest rates is not to alter an individual's or society's MPC, it's to alter the amount of disposable income available.

None of this changes that you said Keynesian stimulus doesn't work while then saying the problem is insufficient demand. You're basically arguing against yourself, haha. Turns out you are a Keynesian after all, but because of culture war issues you'll probably never admit it.

Nothing wrong or inaccurate about your understanding of these matters.

Marginal Propensity to Consume is a fairly elementary concept and -- I would wager -- an axiom in all economic thinking today.

Discussion of this will have a by-product to show how ideological chuckleheads, like some of the angry voters we see today, over-generalize their incomplete understanding of any "History of Ideas."

I'll try and post a graph after I write this. Imagine a "spending" or "consumption" vertical axis (Y) and an income axis (X). I believe the mathematical equivalent of the graph we seek here is similar to a declining logarithmic function, where the line moves up and to the right, and more and more to the right until it approaches a horizontal asymptote.

If the consumer-saver and income-earner were spending everything he earns, the function would simply be a straight-line diagonal at 45-degrees to either axis.

Keynes "Theory" -- which is both observable and logically obvious -- is simple. The consumer will spend less and less a percentage of total income as his income rises. What is not spent, is saved (or invested).

We've all seen exceptions, which does nothing to detract from the descriptive value of the MPC concept. For instance, some cornpone idiot out in Hicksville with earwax on his car-key wins a lottery for $100M. He then proceeds to squander it away on trinkets and nonsense, so the fortune disappears after some few years. A rational person (who uses Q-tips) would find a way to invest the wealth to return as much income as possible under various risk scenarios.

So what am I saying on a broader level? James Madison wrote Federalist Paper #10, in which he briefly describes "class struggle" in the context of resolving problems through a legislative mechanism. This was 50 years preceding Marx, and only a decade after Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations."

There is no . . . ideological . . . monopoly . . . . on good or useful ideas, as they may be applied in a range of contexts which are more or less acceptable.

As for the Keynesian Multiplier or stimulus, that -- too -- has been proven in the real-world, for instance, with the South Korean economy and other places. But nobody would deny the stimulus effect of defense-spending in some various States of the Union during the Cold War, or no less today -- since there was never any substantive disarmament after the Cold War. Some of the conservative loudmouths, perhaps Amy Kramer and others, would simply poo-poo the idea of "stimulus" while promote greater defense spending.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,050
55,538
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It's the same problem as here - misallocation of capital, zombie corporations that produce no or negtive value (and reduce the ability of other companies to produce value in turn), and too much debt at all levels that needs to be discharged. Instead capital continues to be misallocated by propping up companies and debtors and now allowing consolidation and bankruptcies to clear to deadwood, and Keynesians want even more total debt in the system. Evidently no amount of leverage is too high for them, and demand will always exist to match any level of supply.

Yeah again, people said that in the Great Depression. Turns out they were totally wrong. I know this sort of theory feels good emotionally, but there's no evidence that it's actually... you know... right.

If the misallocation of capital were the true problem then recessions would see job losses in specific sectors and should see booming jobs (or at least not decreasing jobs) in other sectors for which we don't have capital misallocated. Instead, recessions and depressions almost always see job losses in every sector. It's logically impossible to have capital misallocated to the entire economy.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
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Yeah again, people said that in the Great Depression. Turns out they were totally wrong. I know this sort of theory feels good emotionally, but there's no evidence that it's actually... you know... right.

If the misallocation of capital were the true problem then recessions would see job losses in specific sectors and should see booming jobs (or at least not decreasing jobs) in other sectors for which we don't have capital misallocated. Instead, recessions and depressions almost always see job losses in every sector. It's logically impossible to have capital misallocated to the entire economy.

Were you asleep the last decade or so? Specific sectors did lose lots of jobs, for example construction jobs went down like 40% or more during the crash and huge financial companies like Lehman (and the associated jobs) no longer exist. Meanwhile other sectors like oil went crazy and were paying roughnecks in North Dakota six figure wages and WalMart was hiring people in the oil boom towns at $15/hour and still had jobs go unfilled.

No one is saying capital is misallocated to the entire economy, the key thing is that there is excessive debt and leverage in the system. That debt doesn't need to be have perfect even distribution among every actor in the economy for it to still be too much in the aggregate. Some have too much debt and those folks need to purge it through bankruptcy, and creditors need to eat that discharge. Preventing that from happening is actually exacerbating the "wealth inequality" you always complain about as well.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
Japan has been lowering theirs since the early 90's.

How long does this take?

Historically speaking quoting a bunch of scholars is not an impressive way to make a point. At least not to me.

.
Like all Eski's arguments, it takes however long it takes. It that happens to be a millennium, he's still right, 'cause reasons. And if you disagree, you just aren't smart enough to understand. :D

What I don't understand about this policy is how it is supposed to provide any stimulus. Japanese banks have to keep certain reserves, so perhaps they are a captive audience, but their depositors are not. If depositors are being charged to keep their money in Japanese banks - and I'm not saying they are, since Japanese institutions are required to keep a certain amount of money in the B0J but those funds are not affected . . . yet - seems to me the incentive is not to spend, but to move money to banks which are not being charged to hold money. NIRP doesn't seem to me to change the business environment; if it's not smart to spend money, looks to me like NIRP won't make it smarter to spend money, just smarter to not have money in the Bank of Japan. Perhaps this will result in more wealth flowing into the Japanese stock market, but surely it will also result in more wealth fleeing the Japanese economy period. And even for the stock market, artificially raising prices like this just means the first guys to buy make out like bandits and the last guys to buy pay the tab, since the underlying valuations are unchanged.

As far as stimulating consumption, if something causes a drain on your capital, be that wealth taxes or negative interest rates, the smart thing to do is not to spend your capital before it can be stolen. The smart thing to do is to protect your capital from the drain. Individuals and institutions who have unspent capital usually have it intentionally.
 

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
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81
Does this mean if you take a loan out from Bank of Japan it'll eventually pay for itself?
 

Ken g6

Programming Moderator, Elite Member
Moderator
Dec 11, 1999
16,716
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From my post in the stock market thread:

The money is in the hands of people who aren't spending it. A slightly lower interest rate won't change that fact. This will do nothing for Japan.

In general, it's really hard to take money from people just because they have money. You can tax investment, which is what negative interest rates do effectively, but that just discourages investment and encourages people to hoard money under their mattresses.

From the post quoted in that post (which you didn't link to):
That means, the Japanese wealth is stagnant. Eventually, they die and the next round of 70-year olds inherit the wealth. Again, to another person who isn't typically a big spender.

In general it's best to tax money when it's moving. It occurs to me that the best way to do that in this case would be an estate tax.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
Savers will take their money out of the bank and push it into the stock market.

Actually, dropping interest rates usually causes bubbles in junk debt. Right now it's car loans. Up until June 2014, it was shale drillers. ~2008 was junk mortgages. Late 1980's was the S&L crisis. You can track the bubbles here:
HYG

As usual, sheep are the biggest victims. People on the sell-side coined the term "high yield" to describe shit quality bonds. Retired folks who grew up with 10% yield on AAA government bonds get suckered into thinking high yield bonds are safe (they are bonds after all), and then they get smashed when those loans go bad. As it turns out, it's mathematically impossible to make money over a long period of time when the interest rate is 7% but the default rate is 10%. Strange how that works. It's like gambling in a casino then acting surprised when the house wins over the long run.
Disagree. You just have to convince the government to have taxpayers pick up the tab for that 10% default. That's why politicians are always the smartest investment.
 

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
9
81
Disagree. You just have to convince the government to have taxpayers pick up the tab for that 10% default. That's why politicians are always the smartest investment.

In reality, if we're talking loans that are paid over 10 years and compound annually, a 7% yearly interest rate will yield about 100% profit. That's way more than enough to compensate for a 10% default rate.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
Does this mean if you take a loan out from Bank of Japan it'll eventually pay for itself?
lol +1

In general, it's really hard to take money from people just because they have money. You can tax investment, which is what negative interest rates do effectively, but that just discourages investment and encourages people to hoard money under their mattresses.

From the post quoted in that post (which you didn't link to):

In general it's best to tax money when it's moving. It occurs to me that the best way to do that in this case would be an estate tax.
While I agree with the first part of your post, it contradicts the second part of your post. People know they are eventually going to die, so they are again incented to structure their savings to avoid these estate taxes because whomever or whatever they intend to bequeath means more to them than the government and some faceless strangers whose only qualification is having spent all their own wealth whilst retaining the desire to spend more. Even the most ardent, high tax, socialist social justice warriors among the wealthy do that structuring with their own money; it's only others' wealth that needs to be seized and redistributed.
 

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
9
81
If the money I had in my savings/checking accounts were being hit with negative interest I'd probably be looking for direct business ventures to put it into. That is, if the market were still spiraling downwards like it has been, otherwise I'd put it there but I've lost enough money in the past several months...

The prospect of turning it into cash I can stuff in my mattress sounds pretty miserable. It'd be so much less convenient to actually spend, and what if someone stole it or my house burnt down? Can you even insure large piles of cash?
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
In reality, if we're talking loans that are paid over 10 years and compound annually, a 7% yearly interest rate will yield about 100% profit. That's way more than enough to compensate for a 10% default rate.
Good point. Her point is still valid as a generality about junk debt bubbles though, maybe just not with those particular numbers. It's especially still valid with short term vehicles where the total return is much smaller and the default rate is therefore a much bigger chunk of ending capital. If the long run consists of a series of 12 month bonds with a return of 7% and a 10% default rate, obviously you'd be screwed as an investor. Same principle for longer maturing investments, just with different numbers.
 

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
9
81
Good point. Her point is still valid as a generality about junk debt bubbles though, maybe just not with those particular numbers. It's especially still valid with short term vehicles where the total return is much smaller and the default rate is therefore a much bigger chunk of ending capital. If the long run consists of a series of 12 month bonds with a return of 7% and a 10% default rate, obviously you'd be screwed as an investor. Same principle for longer maturing investments, just with different numbers.

Sure, but even then defaults don't represent a complete loss.

I don't think anyone is really setting interest rates such that they won't earn a good profit vs traditional default losses, the problem comes when the default losses end up becoming much higher than previously anticipated.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
Sure, but even then defaults don't represent a complete loss.

I don't think anyone is really setting interest rates such that they won't earn a good profit vs traditional default losses, the problem comes when the default losses end up becoming much higher than previously anticipated.
Agreed, but that was pretty much Spungo's original point. Investors rush to the latest vehicle promising high returns relative to the market. All is well for the very first in and out, but soon the default rate is much higher than promised and the vehicle collapses. Instead of the promised high returns, there are losses. Also, if the vehicle is a derivative, then a default can be a total loss.
 

Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
In reality, if we're talking loans that are paid over 10 years and compound annually, a 7% yearly interest rate will yield about 100% profit. That's way more than enough to compensate for a 10% default rate.

In that case, you have nothing to lose. I want you to dump your life savings into HYG and JNK.
HYG (6.0% yield)
JNK (6.73% yield)

Don't worry about the falling share price, and I'm completely serious here. When it comes to bonds, lower is better. Bonds are interesting because they have maturity dates. When bond prices fall (interest rates rise), people simply hold the bonds to maturity. By law, you are guaranteed to be paid the face value of the bond at the maturity date unless the issuer files for bankruptcy. Even if the company goes bankrupt, the bond value doesn't fall to zero. The company is liquidated, and the money raised is paid to senior bond holders, so you might get 20% or 30% of face value.
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
In reality, if we're talking loans that are paid over 10 years and compound annually, a 7% yearly interest rate will yield about 100% profit. That's way more than enough to compensate for a 10% default rate.

I think you need to recheck the definition of the word "profit" because what you just wrote does not describe profit at all.
 

DucatiMonster696

Diamond Member
Aug 13, 2009
4,269
1
71
So you seem to think this is a bad idea. What would you do instead?

This is an extension of a failed idea. In essence, this is a move by the BoJ which is akin to someone doing the same thing over again, but in a bit more exaggerated and over the top desperate manner and then expecting the results to be different.

The truth of the matter is Japan needs to address some very real structural issues with its economy, i.e. its government debt to GDP ratio, its population demographic issues, etc that monetary policy cannot and will not fix and which is the underlying foundation of their economic problems.

Ignoring how they got to into trouble, how they got to this point or how they originally let loose with a QE policy that rivaled our own in size and strength is demonstrating a level of extreme goal line re-drawing on this particular matter by those who think this is the right move.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
In reality, if we're talking loans that are paid over 10 years and compound annually, a 7% yearly interest rate will yield about 100% profit. That's way more than enough to compensate for a 10% default rate.

It's not like the bond will pay a 7% coupon for ten years then default. If your bond is in the 10% that default you might not have ever received an interest payment, or had payments in arrears for much of that 10 years. You are also ignoring the current "mark to market" value if the bond goes to shit relative to the probability that you'll get your bond face value back at maturity.
 

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
9
81
I think you need to recheck the definition of the word "profit" because what you just wrote does not describe profit at all.

1.
a financial gain, especially the difference between the amount earned and the amount spent in buying, operating, or producing something.
"pretax profits"

Sounds good to me. What's the problem exactly?
 

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
9
81
It's not like the bond will pay a 7% coupon for ten years then default. If your bond is in the 10% that default you might not have ever received an interest payment, or had payments in arrears for much of that 10 years. You are also ignoring the current "mark to market" value if the bond goes to shit relative to the probability that you'll get your bond face value back at maturity.

What are you saying?

10% default rate means that 90% don't default. Starting with money X on a 10 year investment would leave you with about:

(X * 1.9) - (X * 0.1) = X * 1.8

That is, if all of those defaulting never paid a single interest payment like you said, which is the worst possible outcome..

I'm just taking Spungo's parameters exactly as given, albeit with bits filled in for what the investment period is over and what the 7% refers to. Obviously this isn't taking into consideration any real world effects where the investment isn't really 7% annually or the default rate isn't really 10%.