The 2816 shader 290X is within ~10% of the 980. Your prediction is that a 27% larger GCN chip (3584 shaders) will only be 5-10% faster than the 980? Even with absolutely no architechural improvements, that seems low.
His assessment is way off.
4K pushes GPUs to their limits and 980's lead over 290X is about 6-9%.
TPU = 8.6% (76% / 70%)
Sweclockers =
6% (106% / 100%)
There are also OC vs. OC results at 4K (
ComputerBase):
980 OC = 14% faster than 290X OC
290X OC = 8% faster than 970 OC
A 3840 or a 4096 SP R9 300 series card would be pretty fast.
Since many sites like AT or TPU or TechReport generally tested reference 290X cards, and these cards still thermal throttled, it's highly possible 290X didn't even run at full 1Ghz all the time in their benchmarks.
Let's say if 1.05Ghz 390X 4096 SPs is always maintaining these clocks, but a 290X reference only averages 950mhz on a reference cooler, we get:
1.05Ghz x 4096 / (0.95Ghz x 2816) =
61% faster at 4K.
That's why those early leaks showed 390X outperforming 290X by up to 65%. AMD's reference blower on a 290X means 390X will get a 'hidden' advantage of constant clocks, something that penalizes a reference 290X in many reviews. Also, the scaling from 280X to 290X is almost linear.