Bitcoin sellers remorse.... how many people are kicking themselves for cashing out>?

[silverpig]

Yeah, slush's pool. I figure there's no way I'm going to find an entire block given my limited power. On average I get ~0.03/day

Gah, just realized that I was looking at my 2011 deepbit account that had .12 BTC in it. I remembered making that in a few days. I just pulled it into my wallet for $26.

On my new deepbit account that I have actually been contributing to over the past few days I'm at a paltry .0065 BTC.

 

[Rinaun]

How is mining in CA even profitable after energy bills? I don't think even with the current price it's worth mining in states with high electricity costs.

 

[Chiropteran]

Mining was barely profitable at $10 per btc last year. Since then value has increased 25X while difficulty has only increased 5X. It was barely profitable, but now it is 5X the profit with zero increase in electricity- you do the math

 

[darkewaffle]

The math is a certainty? What math? Sure it'll crash, but it's a brand new currency, of course it's going to be unstable initially. Funny how I don't hear about any of the merchants using bitcoin dropping support for it over this.

Because they have nothing to lose. I think most of the merchants who accept bitcoin have probably been accepting bitcoin since prior to the spike. Even when it does crash, chances are they're just back where they started.

Merchants actually probably stand to lose business due to the rapid fluctuations in bitcoin prices. A month ago a guy might sell website design for X hours for 5 bitcoins, but now? Maybe, what, .25 bitcoins? If their prices don't constantly fluctuate in rhythm with bitcoin's market value, then accepting bitcoins doesn't really do them any good. And like I said, the more the value inflates, the more of a commodity it becomes and the more people "trade", but I think they'll also spend them less. Merchants want a currency that's stable, not hyperinflating.

 

[lxskllr]

How is mining in CA even profitable after energy bills? I don't think even with the current price it's worth mining in states with high electricity costs.

It's free in winter. The product of mining is heat, and that's what you want when it's cold.

 

[darkewaffle]

This right here is the hilarious thing. Even if you bought in at the worst possible time, and bought bitcoins for $31.90 just before the crash, you would still see a 700% return on your investment after two years. You call that a crash? It was a brief dip and then bitcoin corrected itself back to where it should be

Those are some serious rose colored glasses you're sporting there. It's your opinion it has corrected back up, it's my opinion it will correct back down. Turn the clock back one month. Two. And those $32 bitcoins are worth, what, $20? You're only right 'right now'. It's a good time to be right, no doubt, but will you still be a month from now too?

Something interesting, notice the volumes when the price hit about $50, $90, $75, $130. Eventually one of those breakpoints will snowball imo and it'll all be downhill from there.

 

[Fritzo]

 

[Chiropteran]

Merchants actually probably stand to lose business due to the rapid fluctuations in bitcoin prices. A month ago a guy might sell website design for X hours for 5 bitcoins, but now? Maybe, what, .25 bitcoins? If their prices don't constantly fluctuate in rhythm with bitcoin's market value, then accepting bitcoins doesn't really do them any good. And like I said, the more the value inflates, the more of a commodity it becomes and the more people "trade", but I think they'll also spend them less. Merchants want a currency that's stable, not hyperinflating.

I get the impression that you are just making stuff up as you post. Have you actually bought anything from a merchant that deals in bitcoins?

Do you have any idea how much merchants pay in credit card fees, paypal fees, charge-backs, and everything else that bitcoin fixes? Accepting bitcoins saves them 3-6% directly, and additional money on top of that from not having to deal with charge-backs.

>Merchants want a currency that's stable, not hyperinflating.

Wrong, they couldn't possibly care less. Every major bitcoin merchant I have seen has automated algorithms that pull the current USD value of bitcoin and adjust prices automatically in real time. Value fluctuation of BTC is meaningless for them, as they don't even have to think about it. As for their customers, they just see the prices get lower and lower every day, which is not exactly a bad problem to have.

As a customer I just love the option to just buy something and pay with bitcoins, instead of trusting every random website with credit card info, or worse still giving a cut of the profit to paypal. No registering needed, no credit card info or verification codes. Just enter my name and address and make a payment using bitcoin, simple as can be.

https://www.bitcoinstore.com/ <- it's the real deal.

 

[Doppel]

The math is a certainty? What math?

The simple math. There are never going to be more than 21,000,000 bitcoins. This is a viable currency how?

I have already said it is massively deflationary. Bitcoin wiki describes a deflationary spiral very well: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Deflationary_spiral What it does a poor job at is explaining how Bitcoin is immune to this, particularly in light of the fact it is happening this very minute.

The simple fact that it's succeeded as well as it has so far is evidence enough of that.

There is demand, but there used to be for tulips as well.

There is technically no problem with BTC being deflationary

Ideally a currency is either stable or inflationary. No economist wants deflation and here is why:

21,000,000 bitcoins. Let's pretend we denominate the entire global GDP in bitcoins, thats $3,000,000 per bitcoin. So some geek who spent a few months several years back accumulating a few dozen bitcoins now has enough wealth to buy multiple mansions, sports cars, a yacht, private island.

Anyone else see this as an attack on Bitcoin by the Banking masters such as the Fed/IMF/etc? A bid to get rid of any potential competition and maintain their nearly worldwide monopoly....

No. Maybe bankers are evil, but they are not stupid; Bitcoin will crash itself, and won't need help doing it.

Love these sorts of responses. You are 100% sure it's going to crash, but you have no idea when. In other words, it could continue to rise for another 500 years, as long as it crashes eventually you win. It's a convenient way to act like you are making a bold prediction without ever being proven wrong.

I'm 100% sure I'm going to die. I don't know when.

in regard to not takin investment advice from me, Given your stance on Bitcoins, you seem the type to eschew wisdom anyway, so I won't take it personally. I'm sorry you missed my lotto analogy. I doubt I can make it simpler.

As far as I am concerned it's a a safer investment than cash

LAWLS. I look forward to bumping this. I think Bitcoins are at $250 this moment.

 

[Train]

Doppel you make some decent arguments but you also miss some very basic info.

Saying btc will never be viable because there will only be 21 million of them is like saying USD will never be viable because there aren't enough $1k bills to go around.

"Let's pretend we denominate the entire global GDP in bitcoins" I don't think anyone has EVER stated we would ever come close to this. But would you suppose BTC could be used to represent 1% of global gdp? How about half a percent?

 

[Miramonti]

With limited supply, limited price/volume data, and limited shorting, it's going to be a very difficult thing to predict timing or price range for a bubble burst. Whoever has been buying lately has been buying millions of dollars worth, ie large banks/investment houses/players, and essentially hoarding them. It's not a deep enough market to counter such plays, and it could be close to the beginning of a prolonged run as it could be close to the end.

 

[Train]

More interesting btc news:

http://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-bitcoinbillionaire-2013-4

I'm not much of a reddit user, but seems interesting.

 

[Miramonti]

The simple math. There are never going to be more than 21,000,000 bitcoins. This is a viable currency how?

I have already said it is massively deflationary. Bitcoin wiki describes a deflationary spiral very well: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Deflationary_spiral What it does a poor job at is explaining how Bitcoin is immune to this, particularly in light of the fact it is happening this very minute.There is demand, but there used to be for tulips as well.Ideally a currency is either stable or inflationary. No economist wants deflation and here is why:

21,000,000 bitcoins. Let's pretend we denominate the entire global GDP in bitcoins, thats $3,000,000 per bitcoin. So some geek who spent a few months several years back accumulating a few dozen bitcoins now has enough wealth to buy multiple mansions, sports cars, a yacht, private island.No. Maybe bankers are evil, but they are not stupid; Bitcoin will crash itself, and won't need help doing it.I'm 100% sure I'm going to die. I don't know when.

in regard to not takin investment advice from me, Given your stance on Bitcoins, you seem the type to eschew wisdom anyway, so I won't take it personally. I'm sorry you missed my lotto analogy. I doubt I can make it simpler.LAWLS. I look forward to bumping this. I think Bitcoins are at $250 this moment.

It's easy to make an argument where you can never be wrong...

ie if it crashes soon, you're right, if it doesn't, it simply hasn't crashed yet.

There are only 2 decisions for those who want to bump threads later to gloat:

1) buy it here
or
2) short it here

Care to man up?

 

[Juddog]

More interesting btc news:

http://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-bitcoinbillionaire-2013-4

I'm not much of a reddit user, but seems interesting.

Damn people were getting $2700 for posting in an online forum! That story is crazy.

 

[Doppel]

Doppel you make some decent arguments but you also miss some very basic info.

Saying btc will never be viable because there will only be 21 million of them is like saying USD will never be viable because there aren't enough $1k bills to go around.

"Let's pretend we denominate the entire global GDP in bitcoins" I don't think anyone has EVER stated we would ever come close to this. But would you suppose BTC could be used to represent 1% of global gdp? How about half a percent?

$1k notes affect the value of the dollar in no way at all, they are just a convenience. A fairer comparison would the the US saying that there will never be more than 2x as many US dollars as there are now and it will take a century to release them.

Your notion that bitcoin is valid as a currency as long as it is t adopted by too many people is kind of the point I was making: it only "works" with a tiny number of people bothering.

jjsole I never short anything. No argument on the Internet is worth me risking a significant amount of real money, and in any case my statement is that bitcoin is a casino pyramid. Surely I shouldn't have to partake in that to prove my commitment to the idea.

Only in a Bitcoin alternate reality thread would I ever find people arguing that a deflationary spiral is not a bad thing. The Internet is a scary place at times.

 

[Train]

I think you missed the point. BTC is just a denomination, similar to the $1k bill.

BTC can be divided down to 8 decimal places. A $1k bill can only divided to 5.

And I NEVER said BTC is only viable if it's not adopted by too many people. Stop putting words in other people's mouths.

And why not just do as jjsole asks, make your prediction as to WHEN it will crash. Even if you narrow it down to within a month, hell even a quarter, just make a prediction.

 

[Miramonti]

jjsole I never short anything. No argument on the Internet is worth me risking a significant amount of real money, and in any case my statement is that bitcoin is a casino pyramid. Surely I shouldn't have to partake in that to prove my commitment to the idea.

Only in a Bitcoin alternate reality thread would I ever find people arguing that a deflationary spiral is not a bad thing. The Internet is a scary place at times.

Let me clarify - I'm not actually suggesting making a trade, but taking a position on the current value for argument sake, with the context of as if it were a trade.

Bitcoin has gone from an anomaly tool to another market game with some big players jumping in, and I'm going to guess the game is just beginning.

It's sort of like the guy holding $1b of copper in a british warehouse (iirc), except this game is even easier to run since it's not a very open market has has a limited supply and sellers. It no longer about it's model/reasons for existence or impacted by deflation and potential uses, etc. Imo it's now officially a game, in the process of being gamed.

Realtime BC prices (according to the site.)

 

[Doppel]

Let me clarify - I'm not actually suggesting making a trade, but taking a position on the current value for argument sake, with the context of as if it were a trade.

I simply don't follow Bitcoin closely enough to even hazard a guess as to when it will burst and lose all its value. In this way, it's like watching a lotto that nobody has won and it keeps going up. I have no idea when a person will strike the number, nor when Bitcoin will burst, but I wouldn't put my own money in it. To your point though my guess is that right now with it valued at $220 it is worth more than it will be exactly one month from now.

Earlier today Chiropteran said that As far as I am concerned it's a a safer investment than cash, to which I responded LAWLS. I look forward to bumping this. I think Bitcoins are at $250 this moment.

Already today Bitcoin has gone from an intraday low of $195 up to $259, then down to $211, and now at $220 again. So, this is my bump. I didn't think I could do it just a couple hours later. By the time somebody reads this tomorrow maybe Bitcoin is at $170. Or maybe $300. Who knows. Bitcoin is not an investment, just a gamble by Paulbots. The sad thing is that geeks, who are generally well educated and capable with math, are also those most behind its rise.

 

[Chiropteran]

I simply don't follow Bitcoin closely enough to even hazard a guess as to when it will burst and lose all its value. In this way, it's like watching a lotto that nobody has won and it keeps going up. I have no idea when a person will strike the number, nor when Bitcoin will burst, but I wouldn't put my own money in it. To your point though my guess is that right now with it valued at $220 it is worth more than it will be exactly one month from now.

Earlier today Chiropteran said that As far as I am concerned it's a a safer investment than cash, to which I responded LAWLS. I look forward to bumping this. I think Bitcoins are at $250 this moment.

Already today Bitcoin has gone from an intraday low of $195 up to $259, then down to $211, and now at $220 again. So, this is my bump. I didn't think I could do it just a couple hours later. By the time somebody reads this tomorrow maybe Bitcoin is at $170. Or maybe $300. Who knows. Bitcoin is not an investment, just a gamble by Paulbots. The sad thing is that geeks, who are generally well educated and capable with math, are also those most behind its rise.

I got involved in bitcoin when they were $7. I have no doubt in my mind that there will be some fluctuation- weekend dips in value are common, and today in particular value has just dropped about 15% due to lag (possibly DDOS) on many exchanges. But I'm not too worried, because I know that overall BTC value is going up. I am confident bitcoin won't drop below the values I paid for it, in fact I am confident it won't drop below $60 per BTC, and that would only be an extreme crash- the support at $150 is pretty solid.

The price to put 10 gallons in my car has gone from $38 to $40 in the last few days. Does this mean I should abandon the dollar completely, because it's value fluctuates? IMO the amount of fluctuation is far less important than the DIRECTION of fluctuation. On average over time BTC has only gone up. The dollar has only gone down.


>To your point though my guess is that right now with it valued at $220 it is worth more than it will be exactly one month from now.

It's a possibility, a month is a tiny blip in the scale of time required for these things. When BTC hit $31.90 before the 2011 crash, it took almost 2 years to surpass that value- but once it did, it kept on going. I'm in for the long term, I am confident that bitcoin will be worth more in 10 years than it is today. I am also confident that dollars will be worth less in the same time span.

Cash is guaranteed to inflate. Do you have any idea how much new money is being printed daily? Have you been keeping up with Cypress stealing up to 80% of the money in some bank accounts? Cash isn't safe. Bitcoin might not be 100% safe either, nothing is, but I have more confidence in it.

Only in a Bitcoin alternate reality thread would I ever find people arguing that a deflationary spiral is not a bad thing. The Internet is a scary place at times.

Oh the humanity! My money is worth more today than it was yesterday, whatever will I do? Please take away this free increase in value, I want to go back to using inflationary money that loses value every day I don't spend it!

 

[Miramonti]

The sad thing is that geeks, who are generally well educated and capable with math, are also those most behind its rise.

I'd blame the price ascension on the big players/non-geeks. While the geeks may be abundant, they're very small players. Maybe someday we'll find out who decided to suddenly take big positions.

 

[Train]

I simply don't follow Bitcoin closely enough to even hazard a guess as to when it will burst and lose all its value. In this way, it's like watching a lotto that nobody has won and it keeps going up. I have no idea when a person will strike the number, nor when Bitcoin will burst, but I wouldn't put my own money in it. To your point though my guess is that right now with it valued at $220 it is worth more than it will be exactly one month from now.

Earlier today Chiropteran said that As far as I am concerned it's a a safer investment than cash, to which I responded LAWLS. I look forward to bumping this. I think Bitcoins are at $250 this moment.

Already today Bitcoin has gone from an intraday low of $195 up to $259, then down to $211, and now at $220 again. So, this is my bump. I didn't think I could do it just a couple hours later. By the time somebody reads this tomorrow maybe Bitcoin is at $170. Or maybe $300. Who knows. Bitcoin is not an investment, just a gamble by Paulbots. The sad thing is that geeks, who are generally well educated and capable with math, are also those most behind its rise.

With that stance you waive the right to ever come in here and say "I told you so".

Just sayin'

 

[Subyman]

Mainstream people will not accept bitcoins. I've explained and asked numerous non-tech people if they would use something like bitcoin and the first question is always: "What is it it backed by?" This isn't a philosophical quesiton like many pro-bitcoin people try to turn it into. Being backed by a country (USDs), a group (euros), a material (gold), a commodity (oil), or whatever is all they need. Its at least something even if it is still just humans that give those value, people need to feel they have something. Bitcoins are technobable that people will have a hard time taking on at all.

 

[Chiropteran]

Funny coincidence that we have this discussion just as a big "crash" or dip occurs.

I am feeling horrible dread right now...

...about the fact that I don't have any USD in my account to buy cheap post-crash bitcoin.

 

[Kntx]

Better to think of bitcoin as a commodity than a currency

 

[Train]

Mainstream people will not accept bitcoins. I've explained and asked numerous non-tech people if they would use something like bitcoin and the first question is always: "What is it it backed by?" This isn't a philosophical quesiton like many pro-bitcoin people try to turn it into. Being backed by a country (USDs), a group (euros), a material (gold), a commodity (oil), or whatever is all they need. Its at least something even if it is still just humans that give those value, people need to feel they have something. Bitcoins are technobable that people will have a hard time taking on at all.

It's definitely an "early adopter" type of tech. But people were more than happy to deposit money into PayPal to use to buy/sell products and services. Sure, PayPal used denominations of well known govt currencies, but (at least last time I used them) were never FDIC insured. You trusted a 3rd party. PayPal was kept (somewhat at least) honest by the fact that if they started screwing everyone over, they would go out of business.

What if paypal went one more step further, and created a new currency, which they allowed to float amongst all the other govt currencies? Not a difficult next step at all.

Have we already seen this? How many websites let you buy/sell stuff in a proprietary currency already, such as "credits"? Xbox live comes to mind. You don't buy things in USD/EU/GBP/etc, you first have to buy "Microsoft Points" or whatever they are called, THEN buy the game or media. I've had a couple bucks worth of MS points sitting in my xbox live account for years, for all I know MS doubled the exchange rate with USD, and cut the value of my deposit in half. (I should probably go check that...)

What if the trust of an "open group of processors" is replaced with Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, or Samsung? In the not so distant future, the "backing" of one of these (or a group of them) global organizations could be more trustworthy than any govt.

Interesting stuff.