Bitcoin sellers remorse.... how many people are kicking themselves for cashing out>?

[Train]

you have to account for some percentage that have been/will be lost forever.

what would be a realistic estimate?

Lets say 5% lost forever. So 19.95 million BTC instead of 21 mil.

The rate won't shift much, up to $35.08

I think the steady inflation of fiat currencies would move the rate up faster than any actual loss of available BTC.

Throw in a handful of hoarders and people just sitting on them for various reasons and I think the actual rate will be higher, but overall I think based on my uber-rough assumptions the current valuation is too high.

 

[Train]

But like I said earlier, you can't really assume lost bitcoins are actually lost, you just have to assume they aren't for sale at the moment. What if someone who has 100k btc announces "oh shit my HDD fried and I lost my only backup in a fire!" Then everyone else is like "ka ching!" and drives the price up.

Then the dude just sells 100k coins. Classic pump and dump.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I still think people should send me money via paypal in exchange for MeowKoins.

They are still a bargain at $10 each.

 

[Anonemous]

I'll just leave this here as a possible explanation to the spike in bitcoin prices...

http://www.businessinsider.com/implications-of-the-cyprus-bailout-2013-3

Boom called it

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2013/04/the-future-of-bitcoin.html?currentPage=all

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ruh Roh!! Markets correction!

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html (look at the 5 day chart)

After hitting an all time high of $147, it went back to $110 and has 'stabilized' @ $127 as of this moment.

 

[Anonemous]

A month ago this guy makes a $30K bet on BTC:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/18f3pd/i_have_my_entire_retirement_and_savings_invested/

 

[OverVolt]

A month ago this guy makes a $30K bet on BTC:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/18f3pd/i_have_my_entire_retirement_and_savings_invested/

People frequently wuss out of plans like that. I would bet you it rose to $40 or something and he cashed out and is kicking himself like everyone else.

 

[Oceandevi]

This thing wont crash until its illegal.

 

[Anonemous]

People frequently wuss out of plans like that. I would bet you it rose to $40 or something and he cashed out and is kicking himself like everyone else.

He says he hasn't but meh w/e, the guy gambled and won.
http://www.reddit.com/r/bestof/comments/1blma9/anon_bitcoin_gambler_took_out_a_30000_loan_to/c981p1g

I dunno how he'll get his money out though...
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/MtGox#Withdrawing_Funds

$10K/day

 

[FelixDeCat]

$195.00 btc

 

[Train]

$236, wtf!

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

I sold a bunch this weekend. Probably 40% of my bitcoin holdings. Whoops?

I'll hold the rest. Not really an investor, so I don't know if I should re-invest the 40% I sold...

 

[darkewaffle]

$236, wtf!

Because it's had so little exposure up until now, there's a huge pool of "greater fools" still available

 

[Chiropteran]

I figure, I'm not going to cash out until it's so much money it will change my life. For example, $20,000 would be awesome... except it won't really do much. I'll pay off my car a little faster and nothing else really changes. When I can pay off my car with 3% of my total bitcoin investment, then I might cash out that 3%. And another 3% after the value doubles from that point, and so forth. Maybe.

 

[Train]

I figure, I'm not going to cash out until it's so much money it will change my life. For example, $20,000 would be awesome... except it won't really do much. I'll pay off my car a little faster and nothing else really changes. When I can pay off my car with 3% of my total bitcoin investment, then I might cash out that 3%. And another 3% after the value doubles from that point, and so forth. Maybe.

Why not cash out just enough to cover your initial investment? That way you are playing with "house money", and won't kick yourself if you fail to get out before a crash.

 

[Chiropteran]

Because it's had so little exposure up until now, there's a huge pool of "greater fools" still available

Remember this post, June 1st 2011:

lol bitcoins. read about this in the distributed computing forum. bandwagon bubble aside, the rhetoric associated with it is hilarious. the whole 'we're gonna save the world with bitcoins and defeat the centralized uberbank bureaucracy keeping the poor poor and the rich rich' is pretty rich itself.

It's just bubbling and will burst eventually, probably at one of the next two/three 'halving' intervals which I think people will pick as "get out" markers.

1 bitcoin was worth $12 on that day. If you bought $5000 worth of bitcoins that day, they would be worth $97,916 today.

You called it wrong then, and I bet you are calling it wrong again today

Why not cash out just enough to cover your initial investment? That way you are playing with "house money", and won't kick yourself if you fail to get out before a crash.

Sadly I have done that already, back when value was in the $20-$30 range. Kicking myself for it, but the lesson is learned.

 

[momeNt]

Because it's had so little exposure up until now, there's a huge pool of "greater fools" still available

Cyprus broke the facade, those with the advanced notice that withdrew before the banks seized assets probably didn't believe their gold would get delivered so they opted for online wallets full of BTC.

Look at any money as a confidence index on other monies. Cyprus severely damaged the confidence in banking, hence its rise.

Whoever is on the wrong side of things will be the fool. Many people in Cyprus had their savings wiped out, they stayed in, so they aren't the fools, yet the BTC buyers are the fools? Explain that.

 

[irishScott]

Lol, I love conservative investing. I just crunch on the side, and am accruing about 1 bitcoin/month.

It's a nice way to earn a little bonus income, and saves me from the psychotic debates over bitcoins.

ZOMG BITCOINS R GUNNA SAVE DA WURLD FRUM CORPORATE EVIL MUNCH MUNCH MUCNH!!

HAHAHAHAHALOL LMAO LMAO LMAO BITCOINS? THEY'S GONNA DIE BEACAUSE DEY STUPID! LOL I SO SMARTER DAN U FUCKING BITCOINERS!

^^^^Summary of 90% of the bitcoin debate on the internet


For my part, having actually done some semi-serious research into this, I don't think it'll crash. What it will come into is harsher regulation from various nations, but even then there's nothing illegal about a virtual currency. I don't see America and Europe outlawing them, especially considering they're readily converted into hard, national currency.

What they are to me is stock that I can buy through a little extra electricity and computing time. If it gets me an extra $1000/year, I'm happy. Anyone looking to make serious money off bitcoins is doing little more than gambling, and gambling with large sums of money has always struck me as stupid.

 

[momeNt]

Lol, I love conservative investing. I just crunch on the side, and am accruing about 1 bitcoin/month.

It's a nice way to earn a little bonus income, and saves me from the psychotic debates over bitcoins.

ZOMG BITCOINS R GUNNA SAVE DA WURLD FRUM CORPORATE EVIL MUNCH MUNCH MUCNH!!

HAHAHAHAHALOL LMAO LMAO LMAO BITCOINS? THEY'S GONNA DIE BEACAUSE DEY STUPID! LOL I SO SMARTER DAN U FUCKING BITCOINERS!

^^^^Summary of 90% of the bitcoin debate on the internet


For my part, having actually done some semi-serious research into this, I don't think it'll crash. What it will come into is harsher regulation from various nations, but even then there's nothing illegal about a virtual currency. I don't see America and Europe outlawing them, especially considering they're readily converted into hard, national currency.

What they are to me is stock that I can buy through a little extra electricity and computing time. If it gets me an extra $1000/year, I'm happy. Anyone looking to make serious money off bitcoins is doing little more than gambling, and gambling with large sums of money has always struck me as stupid.

They have a very high likelihood of being outlawed, bitcoin + deepweb supports anonymous underground drug trade and other sorts of crimes.

 

[MrSquished]

bucky cubes will be a better currency and worth more within a year.

 

[irishScott]

They have a very high likelihood of being outlawed, bitcoin + deepweb supports anonymous underground drug trade and other sorts of crimes.

So do US dollars. So do Euros. So does every other currency on the face of the planet.

As I said, they will and already have come under stricter regulation as recently as last month.
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...anges-must-comply-with-money-laundering-laws/

The net result of said regulation will undoubtedly hinder the value of a bitcoin, but it won't squelch it.

 

[ultimatebob]

Whether or not you like bitcoin, I think that everyone can agree that this currency has gone up too far and too fast. This sucker is going to crash at some point, and it's gonna crash HARD.

Think about it for a second... Hyperinflation like this might be good for people holding the currency, but it isn't good for people for people who want to make transactions with it! No established business would be crazy enough to start taking purchases with a currency that can fluctuate in price as much as 25% in a day.

Are you going to buy a $15 Martini at a bar with bitcoin, knowing that the currency to pay for it might be worth $25 the next week?? NO! Likewise, are you going to accept $500 worth of bitcoin for a computer, knowing that currency might be worth only $200 by the time the computer ships? Hell no!

It's time to get out while the getting is good.

 

[irishScott]

Whether or not you like bitcoin, I think that everyone can agree that this currency has gone up too far and too fast. This sucker is going to crash at some point, and it's gonna crash HARD.

Think about it for a second... Hyperinflation like this might be good for people holding the currency, but it isn't good for people for people who want to make transactions with it! No established business would be crazy enough to start taking purchases with a currency that can fluctuate in price as much as 25% in a day.

Are you going to buy a $15 Martini with bitcoin, knowing that the currency to pay for it might be worth $25 the next week?? NO! Likewise, are you going to accept $500 worth of bitcoin for a computer, knowing that currency might be worth only $200 by the time the computer ships? Hell no!

Seems simple enough to me, automatic or manual updating. If a big player like Amazon wanted to accept bitcoins, I imagine they'd have the clout to convince MTGOX or someone to create a constant feed to the current exchange rate. Bitcoin prices for goods could fluctuate with the market. Or they could update the rates periodically.

I don't see bitcoin ever leaving the internet though.

 

[silverpig]

Lol, I love conservative investing. I just crunch on the side, and am accruing about 1 bitcoin/month.

It's a nice way to earn a little bonus income, and saves me from the psychotic debates over bitcoins.

ZOMG BITCOINS R GUNNA SAVE DA WURLD FRUM CORPORATE EVIL MUNCH MUNCH MUCNH!!

HAHAHAHAHALOL LMAO LMAO LMAO BITCOINS? THEY'S GONNA DIE BEACAUSE DEY STUPID! LOL I SO SMARTER DAN U FUCKING BITCOINERS!

^^^^Summary of 90% of the bitcoin debate on the internet


For my part, having actually done some semi-serious research into this, I don't think it'll crash. What it will come into is harsher regulation from various nations, but even then there's nothing illegal about a virtual currency. I don't see America and Europe outlawing them, especially considering they're readily converted into hard, national currency.

What they are to me is stock that I can buy through a little extra electricity and computing time. If it gets me an extra $1000/year, I'm happy. Anyone looking to make serious money off bitcoins is doing little more than gambling, and gambling with large sums of money has always struck me as stupid.

How much hardware do you have crunching?

 

[silverpig]

A month ago this guy makes a $30K bet on BTC:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/18f3pd/i_have_my_entire_retirement_and_savings_invested/

UPDATE 4/9/13: I won't give a full accounting until after a year, but I have said that if it goes above 200 and stays there for at least a week, I am going to quit my job. This morning it crossed $200/BTC. Next week I will be quitting my job if it hasn't gone below $200. I have a few Avalon ASIC miners on the way that will hopefully help me preserve this wealth, or at least pay my debts back and enjoy some time off from work for a while... or forever.

$30,000/14*236 = $505k