Bitcoin sellers remorse.... how many people are kicking themselves for cashing out>?

[Juddog]

Whoever is foolhardy to invest in bitcoins deserve the crash that will come. I'm betting the prices are getting high from drug dealers getting into the market.

 

[rsutoratosu]

http://www.bitcoinx.com/bitcoin-mining-hardware/

These are the asic boxes ? how fast is that 149 box vs a dual amd gpu system ?

I mean i have unlimited energy at work, with generator backup, i can run this all day

 

[chimaxi83]

Whoever is foolhardy to invest in bitcoins deserve the crash that will come. I'm betting the prices are getting high from drug dealers getting into the market.

I like my foolhardy payouts to my Paypal account at $140 a coin, which I bought at around $6. I regret not buying more at the time. Woe is me, I guess.

 

[IceBergSLiM]

Whoever is foolhardy to invest in bitcoins deserve the crash that will come. I'm betting the prices are getting high from drug dealers getting into the market.

well thats a poor bet and a worse pun.

 

[Juddog]

I like my foolhardy payouts to my Paypal account at $140 a coin, which I bought at around $6. I regret not buying more at the time. Woe is me, I guess.

I meant more right now, as opposed to when it was $6 a coin. The price is way overinflated right now.

 

[Juddog]

well thats a poor bet and a worse pun.

Silk Road is one of the things that brought BitCoins to the public attention, and it was only a matter of time before some of the bigger players got involved.

 

[zCypher]

It's not a horrible idea if your computer runs 24/7 and your rent includes electricity, but how long does it take to mine a single LTC or BTC on a single computer? I let my computer run overnight with Litecoin mining, and nothing has changed so far. I haven't configured it to use my GPU though.

 

[Train]

The price is way overinflated right now.

How do we know that? I'm not trying to start an argument, I'm genuinely curious how someone can say it's over/under valued. That implies there is a *known* value for it.

With stocks, you can look at something like P/E ratio to see how it compares to "Normal".

With a currency, what formula are you using to determine where the valuation "should" be?

 

[darkewaffle]

How do we know that? I'm not trying to start an argument, I'm genuinely curious how someone can say it's over/under valued. That implies there is a *known* value for it.

With stocks, you can look at something like P/E ratio to see how it compares to "Normal".

With a currency, what formula are you using to determine where the valuation "should" be?

Because the fluctuation is abnormal and extreme. Not to mention [almost] the exact same thing happened to Bitcoins (simply on a smaller scale) about two years ago.

If you saw a stock experience a ~2000% price increase in just a matter of weeks, what would it make you think? Either that company just cured cancer and successfully created cold fusion, or somethings gotta give.

 

[rsutoratosu]

It's not a horrible idea if your computer runs 24/7 and your rent includes electricity, but how long does it take to mine a single LTC or BTC on a single computer? I let my computer run overnight with Litecoin mining, and nothing has changed so far. I haven't configured it to use my GPU though.

Thats usually good for 1 year till your landlord raises the rent thats what's happening at my friends coop, maintenance fee goes up 10% a year.. its like 700 bucks a month now... they always factor in the utility cost, everything is cover but 10% increase a year = 840 or whatever rate they increase it at

 

[Crusty]

It's not a horrible idea if your computer runs 24/7 and your rent includes electricity, but how long does it take to mine a single LTC or BTC on a single computer? I let my computer run overnight with Litecoin mining, and nothing has changed so far. I haven't configured it to use my GPU though.

You should look into joining a pool of miners. When you join a pool of miners everyone that contributes compute time to finding a block will get a share of the rewards. This way you slowly get BTC over time instead of getting the 25BTC reward when you and you alone happen to find a block, which might not ever even happen.

 

[Crusty]

http://www.bitcoinx.com/bitcoin-mining-hardware/

These are the asic boxes ? how fast is that 149 box vs a dual amd gpu system ?

I mean i have unlimited energy at work, with generator backup, i can run this all day

http://www.butterflylabs.com/ are some other ASIC mining machines.

To put the power in perspective, a really powerful PC with say 4 high end GPUs might be able to get somewhere around 2-3GHash/second.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparison

Has a whole list of hardware and expected hash rates for comparison.

 

[JEDI]

Wow... we're up to $145 Bitcoins and $5 Litecoins. Just a month ago, Bitcoins were $35 and Litecoins were 8 cents. Yeah, 8 cents. I wish that I didn't cash out of my stash when they got to 50 cents a little over a week ago!

When will this madness end?

why the huge runup?
and would my radeon 4850 be cash positive after electricity costs?

 

[Juddog]

why the huge runup?
and would my radeon 4850 be cash positive after electricity costs?

Huge runup - speculators jumping into the market and driving the price sky-high. Some people saying that bitcoins will reach $400 per btc.

Regarding your 4850 - no.

 

[xj0hnx]

Whoever is foolhardy to invest in bitcoins deserve the crash that will come. I'm betting the prices are getting high from drug dealers getting into the market.

Drug dealers have been in the market practically since the beginning. If I had to guess, I'd guess that drugs make up about 80%+ of BTC traffic.

I am reinstalling Windows tonight and cashing in my .75btc w0ot!!! Glad I was too lazy last week

 

[Train]

Because the fluctuation is abnormal and extreme. Not to mention [almost] the exact same thing happened to Bitcoins (simply on a smaller scale) about two years ago.

If you saw a stock experience a ~2000% price increase in just a matter of weeks, what would it make you think? Either that company just cured cancer and successfully created cold fusion, or somethings gotta give.

You didn't really answer the question, what SHOULD bitcoins be valued at?

And like I said, stocks have fundamentals, what do currencies have?

Volatility alone doesn't signal a bubble. Everyone said Google and Apple were overvalued after their huge run-ups, but both stayed high and kept going higher.

 

[ultimatebob]

why the huge runup?
and would my radeon 4850 be cash positive after electricity costs?

Heh... with the mining difficulty as high as it is now, I'd probably make about a $1 a day mining Bitcoins on my Radeon 6870 after I factor in electricity costs.

I seem to be making out slightly better mining Litecoin, but that's only because the currency is going up in value so quickly. The number of people joining the Litecoin mining pools is increasing almost as quickly as the value of the currency itself, though, so it will also quickly become too difficult to make any money mining it as well.

Sorry guys, but the easy money making opportunity is gone now... unless you start a new cryptocurrency and convince people it's worth something

 

[ultimatebob]

You didn't really answer the question, what SHOULD bitcoins be valued at?

And like I said, stocks have fundamentals, what do currencies have?

Volatility alone doesn't signal a bubble. Everyone said Google and Apple were overvalued after their huge run-ups, but both stayed high and kept going higher.

Yeah... nobody knows what it should be worth, since it's a brand new currency.

Rapid inflation like this is usually considered to be a bad thing if you're a merchant, though. It's great if you're an investor, though... until the bubble bursts and you're stuck with a bunch of worthless currency.

 

[Red Storm]

Man at my last job I could have easily had a small mining rig running 24/7 at each of the 50 leasing offices I managed. But then eventually the building managers would've wondered why the electricity bill went up everywhere. :whiste:

 

[Juddog]

You didn't really answer the question, what SHOULD bitcoins be valued at?

And like I said, stocks have fundamentals, what do currencies have?

Volatility alone doesn't signal a bubble. Everyone said Google and Apple were overvalued after their huge run-ups, but both stayed high and kept going higher.

BTC's don't share the same characteristics that stocks have. You're talking about an entirely unregulated currency that is not centrally controlled. You're dealing with a currency where if you lose your digital BTC wallet from your computer crashing (or it gets stolen via malware), you're SOL.

Ultimately what it "should" be valued at, versus what it's at, is a good question with no answer. I feel it's way overvalued simply from looking at past trends, but I could be wrong. I see online sites saying that BTC will hit $400 per unit. The people that got in at $6 and sold at $60 or whatever made out like champs.

People buying in at $135 and expecting it to go higher have a good chance of losing their money if / when it crashes. If you have people investing thousands of dollars into bitcoins, and they lose that money, they are going to want to retaliate in some form or another and that's when it's going to get messy.

 

[darkewaffle]

You didn't really answer the question, what SHOULD bitcoins be valued at?

And like I said, stocks have fundamentals, what do currencies have?

Volatility alone doesn't signal a bubble. Everyone said Google and Apple were overvalued after their huge run-ups, but both stayed high and kept going higher.

Tell that to Apple's near 52 week low lol.

And to me, nothing because I think it's a pseudo-scam. There's no 'right' answer, a unit of currency is worth what someone will give you for it. It's worth is what you believe it's worth. And again, people believe bitcoins are worth more than before because the substantial increases in difficulty lead them to believe they're in short supply. Either due to ignorance or a belief that enough "old" bitcoins have been lost, they're valuing one unit off the idea that you can only earn one through days/weeks of 'work' when in truth the value of them should account for the fact that the supply of them is not nearly as low as one might think and that the work needed to produce one was far far lower for a very long time.

The bitcoin market is kind of like the diamond market really. People trade off the idea that the bitcoin (diamond) is hard to obtain, and therefore valuable. In truth, early adopters (De Beers, for example) have hoards of them because they got there first. They are not scarce resources in the sense that there are few of them in existence, they are scarce in the sense that the mine has already been exhausted.

 

[MaxPayne63]

So how many bitcoins are out there?

I wonder how difficult it would be for an entity that has a vested interest in continuing the current monetary system (say, a bankrupt government reliant on money printing to fund its operations, or a central bank that controls the printing press) to run up the price of bitcoins then pull the rug out from under all the muppets when bitcoins get enough media attention.

edit: I just googled it. 11m bitcoins. Yeah the fed wouldn't even break a sweat sinking that ship.

 

[zCypher]

Thats usually good for 1 year till your landlord raises the rent thats what's happening at my friends coop, maintenance fee goes up 10% a year.. its like 700 bucks a month now... they always factor in the utility cost, everything is cover but 10% increase a year = 840 or whatever rate they increase it at

My computer is on 24/7, granted it's not being stressed 24/7 but still. This year will actually be the first year my rent has went up, and it's going up by $5. I agree though in the grand scheme of things, prices would still eventually go up faster than normal. I have to wonder how much difference a single computer litecoin or bitcoin mining would really make.

 

[Train]

Just doing back of the napkin thoughts here.

What if we set a target market cap for BTC? Something equivalent to a market saturation, stable usage.

Lets just take the combined populations of USA, EU, Japan, South Korea, and Australia (just picking a handful of developed countries) That gives us a population of 1.25 billion people. Let's assume only 1% of them will be regular users of a digital currency (12.5 million).

Lets assume an avg income of 42k a person in USD, though the avg for people who would use btc is probably higher. Say 20% avg taxes, then only 2% of their take home pay is used in BTC trading/spending. That gives us $672/person/year in btc.

$672 * 12.5 million = 8.4 billion total.

divided by 21 million bitcoins once all are found = an exchange rate of 1 BTC = $400

Of course not all of that 8.4 billion is in play at once. Lets say only 1 month's worth is in play at a time. So 8.4/12 = 700 million market cap.

And that would give us an exchange rate of 1 btc = 33.33 USD

 

[IceBergSLiM]

Just doing back of the napkin thoughts here.

What if we set a target market cap for BTC? Something equivalent to a market saturation, stable usage.

Lets just take the combined populations of USA, EU, Japan, South Korea, and Australia (just picking a handful of developed countries) That gives us a population of 1.25 billion people. Let's assume only 1% of them will be regular users of a digital currency (12.5 million).

Lets assume an avg income of 42k a person in USD, though the avg for people who would use btc is probably higher. Say 20% avg taxes, then only 2% of their take home pay is used in BTC trading/spending. That gives us $672/person/year in btc.

$672 * 12.5 million = 8.4 billion total.

divided by 21 million bitcoins once all are found = an exchange rate of 1 BTC = $400

Of course not all of that 8.4 billion is in play at once. Lets say only 1 month's worth is in play at a time. So 8.4/12 = 700 million market cap.

And that would give us an exchange rate of 1 btc = 33.33 USD

you have to account for some percentage that have been/will be lost forever.