Bill passes house... now its up to the Democrats

[umbrella39]

Now what??

Now we just saw how the House just got done wasting another week of the American people's time to keep sucking the dick of the rich and doing any and everything they can think of to keep the inevitable from happening, Obama getting reelected....

That's what...

 

[werepossum]

The house has now passed two different bills and the Senate has yet to pass anything...


I think the pressure is on the Democrats to pass something in the Senate.

BTW the Democrats only have 53 seats. They might have a harder time getting to 50 that the GOP had getting to 218.

McCaskill, Tester, both Nelson's and Brown are all going to be fighting for their lives next year. Stabenow and Manchin could also face difficult races.

That is 7 senators who are going to be facing election next year and who should all face tough races. Will be interesting to see how they vote.

McCaskill is a millionaire who's toast anyway, assuming the Pubbies run someone with intelligence above pocket lint and integrity above, well, McCaskill. I think she'll vote however Reid tells her to vote, because she has nothing to lose and she needs those union organizers and donations.

 

[ProfJohn]

Compromise....


Expand the house bill to $2.5 trillion and leave everything else alone.

Might work...

 

[ProfJohn]

Well, they'll be voting *for* long term deficit reduction with the Senate bill, not stupid posturing so we can fight about it again next year, as with the Repub HOR plan...

It'll be hard to spin it any other way...

What reduction??

The Reid bill has almost no real cuts. Most its cuts come from ending spend that won't take place anyway.

"Honey, if I don't buy that new TV think of how much money I will save...."

 

[mshan]

Yeah, and the reason Obama supposedly moved the goal posts on Bohener re. $400 billion in increased revenue was because there was no enforcement mechanism down the road re. increased revenue in response for real cuts now - basically they get everything they want, promise they will fix everything else later, and then say no when time comes to really make that decision.

Basically lock in spending cuts that Democrats with balk at and expect Republicans to block hard decisions (increased revenue and hard cuts in social security, medicare, and medicaid) for nothing.

Why do you think Obama is always mentioned enforcement mechanism in deal so people follow through with what they promise now.

 

[ProfJohn]

Interesting...

There were 5 Republicans who didn't vote right until the end. Once they saw the bill had enough to pass two of them voted no.

So those two were willing to not vote and allow it to pass since all its needs is 50% +1 to pass.

 

[spidey07]

Democrats - the party of NO

My guess is the only sticking point dems have is they want it till AFTER the 2012 elections, that seems to be the only thing they stand firm on. They're hoping people forget about blaming this mess on Obama, but folks will remember and we'll hammer it home come election time.

 

[OrionAntares]

Democrats - the party of NO

My guess is the only sticking point dems have is they want it till AFTER the 2012 elections, that seems to be the only thing they stand firm on. They're hoping people forget about blaming this mess on Obama, but folks will remember and we'll hammer it home come election time.

Yea, because it's completely unreasonable to want to set up a limit that takes you past the fiscal year it's meant to cover instead of needing to run back to it again part way through...

 

[MomentsofSanity]

The house has now passed two different bills and the Senate has yet to pass anything...


I think the pressure is on the Democrats to pass something in the Senate.

BTW the Democrats only have 53 seats. They might have a harder time getting to 50 that the GOP had getting to 218.

McCaskill, Tester, both Nelson's and Brown are all going to be fighting for their lives next year. Stabenow and Manchin could also face difficult races.

That is 7 senators who are going to be facing election next year and who should all face tough races. Will be interesting to see how they vote.

They passed garbage they knew wouldn't pass. Partisan garbage for no purpose other than posturing. They knew for days it wouldn't pass. The only change they made was to make it MORE extreme to appease the tea party extremists instead of measures to make it passable.

Bravo Republicans.

 

[mshan]

Warren Buffett:

On whether the country will recover most of the 2.5 million lost jobs by the 2012 elections:

“I think there’s a good chance of that. We will come back big-time on employment when residential construction comes back. And we way over-produced in houses. I mean we were forming a million or 1.2 million households and we were building close to two million residential units.”

“Big surprise, we ended up with too many houses. We’re not going to blow them up. We’re not going to have kids start getting married at 12 or something. There’s a natural correction. The only way a correction takes place is to have households formation exceed new construction by a significant amount for a significant period of time.”

“We’ve had it for quite a while. And when you see these figures of five or 600,000, that means we’re sopping up housing inventory and I don’t know exactly when that hits equilibrium, but it isn’t five years from now I know that. And I think it actually could be reasonably soon.”

On the unemployment rate:

“I think that certainly within a few years we’ll see it back at six [percent]…It just depends when housing turns.”

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/warren-buffett-on-u-s-housing-employment-economy/

If this happened, Obama would easily get re-elected and Democrats probably take a large part of House and Senate back because of anti-incumbent wave.

Obviously Republicans can't allow that to happen and they will tank the economy as long the millionaire and billionaire Republicans (probably some nominal Democrats too) who Bush referred to as his real base don't suffer. Everyone else is essentially hired help, as Barbara Bush was previously quoted, I believe (I think she said more specifically there are peers to them, and every else is hired help).

 

[theeedude]

GOP doesn't have leverage. Filibuster is not going to fly, not when the government starts shutting down. They'll vote against it, but they won't filibuster it.

 

[Fern]

Warren Buffett:
On whether the country will recover most of the 2.5 million lost jobs by the 2012 elections:

“I think there’s a good chance of that

Warren Buffet thinks employment will almost fully recover by 2012?

I don't think many people join him in that opinion. I was looking at a poll of CFO's, they're nowhere near that optimistic.

Fern

 

[spidey07]

Yea, because it's completely unreasonable to want to set up a limit that takes you past the fiscal year it's meant to cover instead of needing to run back to it again part way through...

That's a move to force democrats to agree to most of it if republicans in the house agree to extend it to 2012. That's what you call negotiating. It's their last item of compromise and it paints democrats as the bad guys which is always awesome because it exposes who they really are, how they really think.

I can guarantee you this however, it will come down to the wire late sunday or monday. This is all posturing by both sides. They love to let it get to emergency status before they do anything.

 

[spidey07]

Warren Buffet thinks employment will almost fully recover by 2012?

I don't think many people join him in that opinion. I was looking at a poll of CFO's, they're nowhere near that optimistic.

Fern

He's smoking crack. There's a huge inventory of new homes and people just aren't buying. A neighborhood by me with nice homes have some 20 new homes (it's a smallish development that's only 1/3rd complete) that are 3 years old and folks just aren't buying (we went to tour it AGAIN past weekend telling them point blank - you're about 150k too high on price and you're surprised they aren't selling?)

their answer? "Well, this is an energy star home!" I almost laughed in their face. My next words were "so you're telling me I'll recoup that 150k in how long thanks to it being an energy star home?"

"Well sir the materials are more expensive, take these windows for example..."

 

[mshan]

That was based upon his educated guess, prior to knowing that Republicans would deliberately tank the economy for purely political gain, of start of new home construction recovery very late this year.

I haven't looked specifically recently, but housing stocks were acting well prior to all of this debt crisis stuff, presumably reflecting 6 - 9 months in advance what Buffett was projecting.

Gross unemployment statistics are horrid, but you really need to look deeper to understand what is going on.

Many businesses say they have lots of job openings, but they can't find qualified applicants.

That is why you hear some talk about community colleges retooling factory workers whose jobs have left this country permanently being retrained with basic computer skills so they can take advantage of all those job openings out there.

Many companies, prior to this debt crisis spectacle, were reporting fantastic profits, even when gross gdp and other macro-statistics were so bad.

It may not be politically popular, but 3% gross gdp, with low inflation and lots of growth in economies around the world, except for U. S. and Europe.

Now, with this debt spectacle and Republicans tanking economy on purpose to make sure Obama doesn't get re-elected, forward looking statements by companies in murky. Without clear guidance on what will happen forward, they won't invest, hire new people, and stock prices will lag.

 

[dullard]

Warren Buffett:
...
If this happened, Obama would easily get re-elected and Democrats probably take a large part of House and Senate back because of anti-incumbent wave.

Buffet has his numbers correct, but the conclusion was fuzzy and writen in a way to draw you to wrong conclusions.

We peaked at an annual rate of 2.273 million houses being built. Double the number we needed to build. That is how we got to the 5% unemployement range (which by the way is how China's economy is growing now by building empty buildings). But the problem is that housing will recover but we won't go back to building 2.273 million any time soon. We are building 0.6 million per year now and will likely go back to the 1.2 million or so that is equilibrium. Not to 2.273 million. That means, there is only a partial return to those jobs, which means we aren't going back to 5% unemployment (regardless of who is in office).

My personal opinion is that the republican rift this week is just the start of a bigger rift. That rift is more likely than anything to reelect Obama.

On topic: so now the way to get democrats on board is to take what they said no to and make it more pleasing to the right wing of government? The senate is voting now it seems. Anyone have a running tally?

 

[OrionAntares]

That's a move to force democrats to agree to most of it if republicans in the house agree to extend it to 2012. That's what you call negotiating. It's their last item of compromise and it paints democrats as the bad guys which is always awesome because it exposes who they really are, how they really think.

What???

I can guarantee you this however, it will come down to the wire late sunday or monday. This is all posturing by both sides. They love to let it get to emergency status before they do anything.

Doesn't really matter either way. If it hits the wire then they either go the traditional one page number change route or emergency power reverts to the President to do the job himself.

 

[werepossum]

Warren Buffett:

If this happened, Obama would easily get re-elected and Democrats probably take a large part of House and Senate back because of anti-incumbent wave.

Obviously Republicans can't allow that to happen and they will tank the economy as long the millionaire and billionaire Republicans (probably some nominal Democrats too) who Bush referred to as his real constituents don't suffer. Everyone else is essentially hired help, as Barbara Bush was previously quoted, I believe (I think she said more specifically there are peers, and every else is basically hired help).

Um, you do realize that Obama stands for re-election next year, right? He doesn't have "several years" for unemployment to drop to 6%, so that's hardly a factor for Republicans. And ain't it funny that libs always claim that Republicans are a bunch of millionaires and billionaires, but almost all the millionaires and billionaires we see are big libs?

My favorite part of that interview:

“People get their expectations too high…The system cures itself….I would say that that’s the biggest single factor. Government can do things to make it worse and they did in The Great Depression. And government can help some.”

“The president is not [making the situation worse]. We know the things to do that can help, but they are not, in my view, the prime determinate. I mean there are things to work through. If you have too many houses, what can government do? Like I said, they can say well the 12-year-olds should get married and then we’d need a lot of houses.”

“I would say by far the biggest factor in corrections of the business cycle over time is what I would call the natural regenerative powers of capitalism. Capitalism works.”

I'd say right now Obama himself is one of the biggest impediments to the natural regenerative powers of capitalism. Not what he has done so much as what people fear he will do. If he (or his subordinates) threatens to implement CO2 cap and trade without legislation, people whose businesses will be damaged by CO2 cap and trade (which is damned near all of them) will tend to believe he might well do that. You have to honor the threat. He needs to come out with his re-election agenda as quickly as possible, detailing as much as possible what he plans to do (especially at an executive/regulatory level) and why over the next five years. If he does that, AND if business leaders believe him, then that should relieve at least the anxiety over the things Obama controls. Assuming he's not planning on crushing EVERY American industry and trade. In almost every piece of major legislation there are winners and losers, and whatever he plans on doing, be it CO2 cap and trade or whatever, there are bound to be companies that say "Hey, I could get a piece of that! I'd better start working for that." And companies that say "That's not going to hurt me too badly, maybe I'll start that second line and try to break into that market I've been wanting to enter while I can have my pick of employees." The companies and industries that he does plan on crushing, well, they aren't hiring now anyway. Although I suppose they could kill some marginal jobs to make as much money as possible before extinction.

Point is, what Obama WILL try to do is almost certainly far less harmful than what people fear he MIGHT do.

 

[Doppel]

No fvcking chance in hell employment back to a strong level by 2012.

He isn't always right, though, and he'd have no trouble admitting it.

 

[mshan]

Warren Buffett specifically said that unemployment projection was based upon the start of a recovery in new home construction late this year.

If you read some real estate blogs, you will often see comments that housing prices are stable, even possibly creeping up, in areas where there is not tremendous pressure on prices because of foreclosures or short sales. and you can't just look at what still unrealistic prices some sellers put up, you have to look at what actual sales completed and the actual price paid.

I read somewhere a long time ago that like 50% (?) of U. S. real estate market can be accounted for by 4 states (California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada?), which also happen to be where most of the overbuilding took place - I believe most of California never overbuilt as bad as other areas - Miami, Phoenix, Las Vegas - and the combination of large price reductions and federal and state tax credits made much of California affordable, at least by California standards. Even with drastic reductions in price, Miami and much of Florida will probably continue to be a disaster because there was so much speculative building that has to be absorbed over time. Large parts of the country probably never had such a speculative housing boom, prices went somewhat high, have probably overcorrected now, and it is just all the bad news on tv and very tight lending standards that are keeping people in these communities from stepping up and buying.

He didn't guarantee that, that was his educated guess before this debt debate intentional tanking of economy. What they are doing, if nothing else that make it difficult for businesses to see clearly what earnings projections will be going forward, may tank economy into double dip.

 

[dullard]

59-41 it failed in the senate if I heard the cspan voice correctly.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

I think that by November 2012 we'll have a compromise.

 

[lupi]

"Any solution must be bipartisan," said Obama from the Diplomatic Room at the White House. "We're in rough agreement," said the president. "There are plenty of ways out of this mess."

"The time for putting party first is over," he added. "It’s time to step up and show the leadership the American people expect."

unless say, it's about reforming health care and creating the third largest burden upon the nations citizens, then voting on party lines is fine.

 

[spidey07]

Warren Buffett specifically said that unemployment projection was based upon the start of a recovery in new home construction late this year.

If you read some real estate blogs, you will often see comments that housing prices are stable, even possibly creeping up, in areas where there isn't tremendous pressure on prices because of foreclosures or short sales. You can't just look at what still unrealistic prices some sellers put up, versus what actual sales complete over time.

He didn't guarantee that, that was his educated guess before this debt debate intentional tanking of economy. What they are doing, if nothing else that make it difficult for businesses to see clearly what earnings projections will be going forward, may tank economy into double dip.

Well he has been smoking crack.

There have been zero indicators that would happen. I've been looking to buy our dream home for a good 9 months now so I follow every article on new home starts and inventory. The inventory is simply too high and a new home costs more than a comparable 5-6 year old home by a wide margin.

 

[IronWing]

So once the Senate kills this dog will Boehner wipe his eyes and get on with governing? He could have had a bill that the Senate would pass but chose to put party before country, again. All he needed to do was introduce a clean debt limit increase bill. At this point he could have gotten full Dem support and support from the few House Reps who aren't retards to pass it. Everyone could be home enjoying the weekend instead of wallowing in faux angst.