Bill passes house... now its up to the Democrats

[mshan]

I believe new home builder stocks were starting to improve, until recently.

Those stocks should lead real data by 6 - 9 months.

I am not a stock technician, but looking at etf chart, it looks like those stocks are pulling back to breakout they had over a year ago. Haven't breached below that, but tanked very recently.

 

[Balt]

BTW the Democrats only have 53 seats. They might have a harder time getting to 50 that the GOP had getting to 218.

Doesn't look like it. Bill is DOA, 59-41.

 

[GuitarDaddy]

Cerimonial BS with zero chance of passage and every one knows it. Gotta love how the President and Speaker of the house both said the bill was unpassable and DOA so Boehner makes it worse and does these the "in yo face" dance like he hit a home run.

 

[werepossum]

So once the Senate kills this dog will Boehner wipe his eyes and get on with governing? He could have had a bill that the Senate would pass but chose to put party before country, again. All he needed to do was introduce a clean debt limit increase bill. At this point he could have gotten full Dem support and support from the few House Reps who aren't retards to pass it. Everyone could be home enjoying the weekend instead of wallowing in faux angst.

I'm sure if he gives Democrats what they want, he could get "full Dem support".

Why the fuck are the Republicans considered to be playing party politics while the Democrats are nobly sacrificing for the good of the country? They are doing the same exact thing! Not only that, but considering that our out of control debt is going to tank our rating anyway, the Republicans have a better claim at looking out for the country than do the Dems - although that's like choosing sides in a fight between a snake and a rat. Jeez, try not to be a total 'tard.

With reasoning like this, we deserve to default and crash. We are too stupid and too dishonest as a country to prosper.

 

[werepossum]

Doesn't look like it. Bill is DOA, 59-41.

Pure politics. Pubbies filibuster so they stay one step up on the Dems, having actually passed two bills through the House to none in the Senate. Ain't nobody being fooled, both sides are doing exactly the same thing.

 

[Throckmorton]

Doesn't look like it. Bill is DOA, 59-41.

Let Republicans filibuster. Why do Democrats always give in to the threat instead of making them read the phone book for 24 hours?

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Let Republicans filibuster. Why do Democrats always give in to the threat instead of making them read the phone book for 24 hours?

That's possible but I'm not sure either party believes there are phone numbers outside the Beltway. We are Myth! (and irrelevant, but what the hell.)

 

[Throckmorton]

Oh it looks like they don't have to talk while filibustering. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/23/the-myth-of-the-filibuste_n_169117.html

 

[sportage]

[Quote}Bill passes house... now its up to the Democrats [/Quote]

And senate kills it.

 

[mshan]

spidey07:

A neighborhood by me with nice homes have some 20 new homes (it's a smallish development that's only 1/3rd complete) that are 3 years old and folks just aren't buying (we went to tour it AGAIN past weekend telling them point blank - you're about 150k too high on price and you're surprised they aren't selling?)

their answer? "Well, this is an energy star home!" I almost laughed in their face. My next words were "so you're telling me I'll recoup that 150k in how long thanks to it being an energy star home?"

"Well sir the materials are more expensive, take these windows for example..."

Ask your realtor to pull comps of similar homes from say 2002 or 2003. Add inflation to that and probably get a conservative estimate of what you should pay.

Home builders have cut down their costs a lot, and unless they have a spec home already built that they want to get off books before the end of their fiscal year, they probably won't budge much.

There may be incentives they give, and they may or may not budge on price, but if you qualify for best rates (large downpayment and highest credit), I believe 30 year fixed may be as low as 4.5%. I previously listed to Toll Brothers earnings conference call and they felt, in a lot of their markets, prices were inelastic. I think they said they offered incentives of 5 - 8% but didn't feel higher incentives or decreased price would boost sales. It would probably to try and get all of the upgrades you want, but still insist you stay close to base price (they get nominal comp that doesn't show discounted sale, but you hopefully get a lot more for your money than base model at that list price) and if you use their in house lender, really try and get below market mortgages rates if they offer them without tons of cost or discount points.

I get John Burns Real Estate Consulting newsletter (you can sign up for his free newsletters at his website), they said if interest rates go from 4.5% - 5.5%, it equivalent to 12% increase in price, if viewed from perspective of monthly payments.

My observation from several different markets is that new home builders can offer very competitive prices, vs. already built similar homes, but may not be able to compete on price in terms of foreclosures.

A year ago, short sale list prices (if they were actually listing a bank approved price, and not some random price real baits and switches to get your attention), they were also below fair market. This year it looks like a lot of short sale list prices are very close to fair market value.

I would also ask your realtor what he thinks actual building costs and land for where you were looking at is and how much wiggle room in terms of price he or she there really is.

Especially if you are in jumbo or higher price range, cost of ownership is probably really at a historic low:

Rates are at historic lows and the spread for jumbo loans has shrunk dramatically. As CNN Money explained:

Normally buyers have to take out a jumbo loan to finance any mortgage beyond the $417,000 threshold ($729,000 in high-cost cities such as New York). These loans have higher interest rates because they are considered non-conforming — or higher risk — and are not backed Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
In 2009 buyers of high-end homes paid 1.8 percentage points more in interest than the average buyer. But in 2010, that spread had shrunk to just 0.6 points more.
​

They can also fix that rate for 30 years. The 30-year-fixed-rate-mortgage may be a victim of the new lending reforms. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economics addressing the administration’s recent report on reform:

“A private system would likely mean the end of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as a mainstay of U.S. housing finance. A privatized U.S. market would come to resemble overseas markets, primarily offering adjustable-rate mortgages.”



http://kcmblog.com/2011/03/14/if-prices-are-falling-why-are-the-rich-buying/​

Good luck!

 

[IronWing]

I'm sure if he gives Democrats what they want, he could get "full Dem support".

Why the fuck are the Republicans considered to be playing party politics while the Democrats are nobly sacrificing for the good of the country? They are doing the same exact thing! Not only that, but considering that our out of control debt is going to tank our rating anyway, the Republicans have a better claim at looking out for the country than do the Dems - although that's like choosing sides in a fight between a snake and a rat. Jeez, try not to be a total 'tard.

With reasoning like this, we deserve to default and crash. We are too stupid and too dishonest as a country to prosper.

The issue in question is the debt limit. A clean bill addresses the issue at hand. All else is opportunistic politics.

 

[werepossum]

Oh it looks like they don't have to talk while filibustering. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/23/the-myth-of-the-filibuste_n_169117.html

Boy, that piece is certainly up to Huffy standards. It mentions Strom Thurmond (who later became a famous Republican) filibustering the 1964 Civil Rights Act, but makes no mention of Byrd and the other Democrats (who remained Democrats) filibustering it. Nope. Senator Byrd, the most famous filibusterer of all, gets no mention in filibustering; instead, he's the noble Democrat trying to get campaign finance reform through the Senate - against a filibuster.

Thurmond, Byrd and the other Democrats weren't talking because they wanted to make a point, they were talking because they didn't have anything like forty votes to stop the Civil Rights Act. Cloture passed 71 - 29. Look it up.

Huffy Post, lying and making people stupid for their own good.

 

[spidey07]

spidey07:

Ask your realtor to pull comps of similar homes from say 2002 or 2003. Add inflation to that and probably get a conservative estimate of what you should pay.

Home builders have cut down their costs a lot, and unless they have a spec home already built that they want to get off books before the end of their fiscal year, they probably won't budge much.

There may be incentives they give, and they may or may not budge on price, but if you qualify for best rates (large downpayment and highest credit), I believe 30 year fixed may be as low as 4.5%.

I get John Burns Real Estate Consulting newsletter (you can sign up for his free newsletters at his website), they said if interest rates go from 4.5% - 5.5%, it equivalent to 12% increase in price, if viewed from perspective of monthly payments.

My observation from several different markets is that new home builders can offer very competitive prices, vs. already built similar homes, but may not be able to compete on price in terms of foreclosures.

A year ago, short sale list prices (if they were actually listing a bank approved price, and not some random price real baits and switches to get your attention), they were also below fair market. This year it looks like a lot of short sale list prices are very close to fair market value.

I would also ask your realtor what he thinks actual building costs and land for where you were looking at is and how much wiggle room in terms of price he or she there really is.

Especially if you are in jumbo or higher price range, cost of ownership is probably really at a historic low:

http://kcmblog.com/2011/03/14/if-prices-are-falling-why-are-the-rich-buying/

Good luck!

Thanks a bunch. Why the hell do you think I want to buy so badly? Never been a better time, I'm just trying to make a deal.

True comparables are at 100-110/sqft and these morans want 150+ with no real noticeable quality increase and crappy lots. They're slapping in granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances and asking 150 more for 10k at most in the kitchen which ALL OTHER HOMES in this price range already have including the brazilian hardwood floors.

 

[werepossum]

The issue in question is the debt limit. A clean bill addresses the issue at hand. All else is opportunistic politics.

The issue in question is the staggering debt increase, of which the debt limit is but a symptom. A clean bill raising the debt ceiling addresses that issue not at all.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

The issue in question is the debt limit. A clean bill addresses the issue at hand. All else is opportunistic politics.

No, it masks the issue. The issue is spending too much and having to borrow more.

 

[Craig234]

Let Republicans filibuster. Why do Democrats always give in to the threat instead of making them read the phone book for 24 hours?

Filibuster only applies against passing the bill. Republicans can't filibuster Democrats voting it down with just 51.

 

[mshan]

spidey07:

Sign up for the John Burns Local Building Intelligence newsletter (free) here:

http://www.realestateconsulting.com/newsletter

It gives recent data for major metropolitan areas regarding unemployment rate, average rent to income ratios, their gauge of historic affordability of area, and things such as new home permits and job creation. Obviously I don't know how overbuilt or overpriced your particular area became (if at all) during housing bubble, but that may help you formulate a better idea of what is reasonable to pay for that home going forward. As long as you own the home for many years, at some point macro-factors will subside and local things (how good is local economy, how is population in that area growing, how are jobs like and how much are salaries going up) will become more important in determining value of your home going forward.

Other thing I can think of is that builder is a publicly traded company, go search for it's own earnings report conference calls and look for when it's fiscal year ends. If they have a speculative build house in inventory and it's getting very close to end of fiscal year, they will be much more motivated to get it off books before they have to report to stock holders.

And I remember reading somewhere that builders are trying to trim costs and some input costs may be going up, so if comparing apples to apples, you have to make sure house you would be getting hasn't had any significant things cut out to meet a lower nominal list price point.

 

[EagleKeeper]

So once the Senate kills this dog will Boehner wipe his eyes and get on with governing? He could have had a bill that the Senate would pass but chose to put party before country, again. All he needed to do was introduce a clean debt limit increase bill. At this point he could have gotten full Dem support and support from the few House Reps who aren't retards to pass it. Everyone could be home enjoying the weekend instead of wallowing in faux angst.

Increase the ceiling without any cuts just make the problem be kicked down the road the same way we are doing it now. Measures have to be taken to reverse the trend of passing the buck. A politician's promise is worthless. There has to be a concrete measure and punishment to get anything difficult done. Some taxes should be.increased, loopholes previously authorized by Congress have to be closed and spending pain that is real implimentdd. Not just smoke and mirrors about not spending something that might not be spent. Kill some spending based on what was spent yesterday, not what you would like to spend today. If eveyone shares some pain, it is a fair share. Same as taxes, if has to be increased, do so across the board; not just on a select group. Easier go get everyone on board when no favoritism is shown!

 

[Balt]

Ain't nobody being fooled, both sides are doing exactly the same thing.

No argument with that. Both sides are full of buffoons.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Republicans and Conservatives on this board need to understand one thing.

You will get NONE of what you want without compromise. Attempting to take the US gov't hostage doesn't work nor has it ever worked in this country's history. It's simply now how we operate.

The Democrats have already shown willingness to compromise by showing support for plans that make sizable cuts to entitlement programs and proposing bills that offer no revenue increases (tax increases) at all.

What have the Republicans compromised on thus far?

 

[IronWing]

No, it masks the issue. The issue is spending too much and having to borrow more.

Which can be addressed in the next set of appropriations bills, you know the ones that Congress is neglecting to work on while the current circus continues? Spending of course is only one side of that equation, taxes being the other.

 

[Lemon law]

Whoopie doo, Boner has passed two house bills that can't pass the Senate, where does Boner come up with this shit that passing legislation that is doa is any better than passing nothing at all.

Ole boner has already tried to reach out to the Senate and has been told three times, his delusional tea party written bill does not stand a snowflakes chance in hell.

But when push comes to shove, Boehner is playing a very dangerous game, because if the Boner failure to compromise collapses the US credit rating and badly hurts the American people, its going to be the end of Boenhner and the GOP.

But then again, the no more than 18% of the American government tea partiers think it will be the end of democrats and Obama.

My fellow Americans, belly up to the betting window, place yer bets, as all Americans swirl down the toilet. Swirlies are such fun.

 

[sportage]

I'd guess republicans i.e. Boehner and the tea baggers, only passed an impossible bill to eventually get Obama to enact the 14 amendment and raise the debt ceiling, then pull a stunt to impeach the president.
This plays right into tea baggers hands. Especially Bachmann's.
I’m ok with that.
In the end... Obama gets what he originally wanted. Raised ceiling with no conditions.
Actually, Obama has already won just that.

 

[IronWing]

Increase the ceiling without any cuts just make the problem be kicked down the road the same way we are doing it now. Measures have to be taken to reverse the trend of passing the buck. A politician's promise is worthless. There has to be a concrete measure and punishment to get anything difficult done. Some taxes should be.increased, loopholes previously authorized by Congress have to be closed and spending pain that is real implimentdd. Not just smoke and mirrors about not spending something that might not be spent. Kill some spending based on what was spent yesterday, not what you would like to spend today. If eveyone shares some pain, it is a fair share. Same as taxes, if has to be increased, do so across the board; not just on a select group. Easier go get everyone on board when no favoritism is shown!

Passing grandiose blueprints for spending and taxation years down the road is pointless. Every Congress is free to ditch the agreement at any time.

If we want a balanced budget then we need nothing short of a balanced budget amendment or we will never get there. Not the ideological, partisan crap pile the Reps rolled out last week but a straight forward "revenues must equal spending" amendment.

 

[Lithium381]

Dems aren't even TRYING to pass legislation, they just keep waiting for Repubics to make a move, then shoot down whatever idea it is and criticize it and claim they're not open to compromise. Demotards havne't offered a damn thing