Bailout bill failing in House

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SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,928
143
106
Originally posted by: BoberFett
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: Fern
Originally posted by: eskimospy
The mass bankruptcy idea is utterly insane. The entire problem we are having right now is banks that are reluctant to lend money. Do you think the total elimination of $700 billion (or whatever) worth of debt is going to make anyone ever want to lend another dollar ever? That would be an unmitigated catastrophe.

The big buga-boo is the unknow extent of crappy assets.

Banks will do retail lending to people. They won't lend to other banks, or so we hear, because they do not know to what extent the other the banks might be in trouble because of these securities. Quite likely why they won't lend to some companies either (large corps use investments like these securities in their cash management programs - many are thought to hold considerable amounts of this stuff in their porfolios).

So, the problem at the basic level is the lack of knowledge; how does throwing around $700B make the picture any clearer? It doesn't.

However, when you run these companies through bankruptcy you can fix that. They'll come out bankruptcy with this garbage stripped out; that'll make them certifiably good lending candidates.

Look, banks need to lend money; that's how they make money. Every incentive in the world already exist to encourage them to lend, we just need to clean up the uncertainty WRT to the securities.

Fern

$700 billion worth of debt being erased is a pretty colossal disincentive to lend. From everything I've read, we're talking a full scale collapse of the financial system if that happens.

I'll take my economic cues from economists instead of accountants, thanks.

And buying $700B worth of garbage from fools who were too stupid to lend intelligently is a pretty colossal disincentive to lend intelligently in the future.

If they fuck up again, they get another $700B! Yay!
Right? What would the difference be between a bankruptcy panic vs a panic once the financial sector discovers these assets aren't worth much and another 700billion is needed? Hmm.

 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: BoberFett
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: BoberFett
Originally posted by: JS80

They are not giving anyone $700b.

But by purchasing the toxic assets from their balance sheet for a discount price benefits both the bank and the taxpayer.

Most importantly, it will restore liquidity and confidence to the marketplace.

Buying worthless shit for a large sum of money absolutely is a giveaway.

Fucking hell, if you want to buy worthless shit for a billion dollars, come dig through my basement before I pay somebody to haul the garbage... I mean asset away.

Five years from now you'll be able to sell it for more than you paid. I swear. And you'll be keeping me liquid in the meantime, and by keeping me liquid you keep me consuming and the market roaring. See, win/win situation.

:roll:

OK genius. They are worthless. They produce no cash flow and are not asset backed.

If they produce cash flow and are asset backed, then why is the market illiquid? Somebody obviously has the liquid assets to buy them, otherwise where would the feds be getting the cash to buy them? Why not let those same investors buy the securities directly? Why involve the taxpayer?

This is the fundamental problem of this whole situation as far as I'm concerned. All of you "experts" are using circular logic and somewhere in the circle, someone is getting screwed.

Wow you are finally asking the right questions. It's called fear and uncertainty. Why did the stock market crash? why do prices for anything drop? Because investors THINK their earnings in the future will drop.

And it all goes back to liquidity and confidence. Right now the US Treasury is the only power that can restore confidence and liquidity back in the market. The Treasury is effectively lending money via Treasury bills at 1-3% and "lending" it to the troubled banks at a higher markup. This is called arbitrage.

You can't force the market to be confident. You only restore confidence by entering the market and acting on it.


Why not let those same investors buy the securities directly? Why involve the taxpayer?
Let me give you an example. Let's say GE stock all of a sudden drops by 60%. No news, no nothing. As far as you know nothing has changed. Would you enter the market and buy GE? Or would you question and second guess yourself? Is there something I don't know? What is going on? Let's say it was a some false temporary rumor that got squashed and the stock recovers.

My guess is you probably wouldn't have bought. But why? It was because at that point in time with the lack of info there was a lack of liquidity and confidence in the stock and it was valued at lower than it was due to FEAR and UNCERTAINTY. That is why the "same investors" aren't buying "the securities directly."
 

Mill

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
28,558
3
81
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: Mill
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: Mill
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: Fern
I don't see how going through bankruptcy will axiomatically require more conservative lending policies? (or even require FDIC payouts etc)

Bankruptcy will likely result result in shareholders losing their investment, changes in management and extinguishment of some debt. The bank would re-emerge stronger and under new ownership (probably owned by creditors).

I think the use of bankruptcy as a tool here should be more fully explored. I'm not convinced as many here seem to be that just throwing huge piles of taxpayer money at the problem to *make it go away* is the right chioce. I understand how Congress might be concerned about the outcry from those investors in these failed institutions; but not all investments are profitable and the bankruptcy avenue is here for a purpose. I.e., tough sh!t if you're heavily invested in the finance/banking sector and take a hit. The portfolio theory exists for a reason.

I believe the negative consequences are being over-hyped and that the *real* point is to save peoples' investments/401(k) plans and pay for it through the backdoor with tax increases (larger gov debt will eventually lead to higher taxes - good freakin luck cutting social/entitlement programs etc). I.e., a person like myself with little stock investments will be underwriting other peoples' investments.

I'm open to *draining the swamp* of these finacial problems and taking our medicine for a time. I realize this will have recessionary effects, but do not believe it will be as bad as claimed by many.

Finance is highly international, I've yet to hear anybody explain WHERE our $700B is really gonna go? Have foreigners purchased US backed mortgage securities? Is our money going to anybody anyplace other than the USA? If so, I say "NO". If they can't determine with 100% certainty that our $700Bwon't *leak* to foreigners I say "NO". Have they even considered this in their panic?

I see a lot people here opining how this needs to be passed etc, yet I see very little at this point about what exactly is in this new compromise legislation. I heard it was over 100 pages, I doubt we'll get details and/or any understanding of what it contains for a while. I don't anybody should be voting "YEA" until they are 100% certain of what they are voting for.

Fern
That's actually one of the best ideas I've heard all day: use bankruptcy as a monetary tool and just wipe most of the debt away. That's what we did when we lent money to African countries who we knew would never pay it back. Obviously that would be in layman's terms and it's much more complicated than that, but would banks be so tepid to play nice if all of their toxic debt from the subprime market vanished overnight? Of course, liquidity would still be an issue but the Fed can pump billions (like they did today) into existing programs if it became a problem. And I doubt if all of the toxic debt was just "forgiven", then 700 billion would not be necessary. Thoughts?

Worked great for Argentina!!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A...mic_crisis_(1999-2002)

They still haven't recovered and it is 7 years later.
From your link, ORLY?:
While unemployment has been considerably reduced (it's been hovering around 8.5% since 2006), Argentina has so far failed to reach an equitable distribution of income (the wealthiest 10% of the population receives 31 times more income than the poorest 10%). This disparity, nevertheless, compares quite favorably to levels seen in most of Latin America, Asia and Africa.

Yes, ORLY, fucktard. I spent the entire summer and there and no one trusts banks or the government, and the entire economy is being held up with thin shreds of high commodity prices (not anymore!!!) . Constant protests against the Government, 20% inflation, etc. Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world not that long ago, and due to chronic mismanagement they are in a crappy position.
Anecdotal evidence vs my factual information (from YOUR link) and you're name-calling already? There's the Mill I've come to love. ;)

It is widely considered by both economists and your average Argentine that Argentina is not back to 2001 levels yet.

http://www.economist.com/displ....cfm?story_id=11966983

http://www.economist.com/displ....cfm?story_id=11992841

Or, you can go read the national newspaper. They talk about the shitty state of the economy all the time:

http://www.clarin.com/

But by all means, believe whatever you want especially considering what you posted didn't say the economy was doing well. We are comparing Argentina now to what it was before the collapse (because they defaulted on their debt). Things are still bad. Much of th growth of the past few years has been fueled by commodity prices and a recovery due to losing 20% of GDP during the collapse. Doesn't mean the economy is doing well.
 

theeedude

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,197
126
So, are congressional Republicans really so EMO that they decide whether to vote for a bill based on Pelosi's speech? If they lack the ability to act rationally, and instead act out of spite, how can they be trusted to have any power?
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
Well we will certainly see. Even as our entire economy tanks, various Ceo's are still in complete control of many companies. What stops them from pulling the Saddam Hussein trick? Namely ordering their many minions to covert all assets into money and gifting it to the CEO just before all these companies go belly up.

Then they can parade out all their sobbing wives complaining that we can't possibly be so cruel as to take away all their vacation homes as they flee to various countries with no extradition treaty with the USA.

We can get through times of dopes better than we can get through times of no money and absconding dopes. If you think those Ceo's have any plans to share the collective pain, please have your head examined.

Heads they win, tails we lose. Its the golden rule. Proof positive, they can manage our money better than we can.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: JS80

Wow you are finally asking the right questions. It's called fear and uncertainty. Why did the stock market crash? why do prices for anything drop? Because investors THINK their earnings in the future will drop.

And it all goes back to liquidity and confidence. Right now the US Treasury is the only power that can restore confidence and liquidity back in the market. The Treasury is effectively lending money via Treasury bills at 1-3% and "lending" it to the troubled banks at a higher markup. This is called arbitrage.

You can't force the market to be confident. You only restore confidence by entering the market and acting on it.


Why not let those same investors buy the securities directly? Why involve the taxpayer?
Let me give you an example. Let's say GE stock all of a sudden drops by 60%. No news, no nothing. As far as you know nothing has changed. Would you enter the market and buy GE? Or would you question and second guess yourself? Is there something I don't know? What is going on? Let's say it was a some false temporary rumor that got squashed and the stock recovers.

My guess is you probably wouldn't have bought. But why? It was because at that point in time with the lack of info there was a lack of liquidity and confidence in the stock and it was valued at lower than it was due to FEAR and UNCERTAINTY. That is why the "same investors" aren't buying "the securities directly."

Why even try? I've given up on these people, for the most part. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink. They'll only finally figure it out when they lose their jobs, or their friends and family do. Then, they'll ask for help, but it'll be too late.
 

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,060
1
0
Originally posted by: BeauJangles
Originally posted by: Brainonska511
Originally posted by: ultimatebob
Originally posted by: Eeezee
Originally posted by: ultimatebob
Excellent... we finally have one of those amazing buying opportunities that I've been waiting for!

I think that I'm going to buy a shitload of Apple stock tomorrow while it's cheap.

I don't think tomorrow is the day to buy. I'm of the feeling that the worst has yet to come.

I'm waiting for the DOW to drop below 10k.

I think that the market will rebound once they come up with a practical bailout package later this week. The time to buy is soon!

That's what I'm thinking - dumbed a little more into my Roth IRA a few minutes ago (so it will be about 2 days before the transfer is completed). Plus, being in it for the long run, I'll still be buying lower relative to when I'll retire in 40+ years.

Yeah, except every day they delay could potentially cost billions of dollars. Friday, WaMu went down. Today, Wachovia went down. That's billions of dollars that the government is now absorbing. The bailout package will cost nothing compared to this continued bickering.

the government sofar has paid nothing for either of those companies, beyond some limited loan guarantees.
 

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,060
1
0
Originally posted by: Wreckem
Originally posted by: Lemon law
Lets see if I can get my arms around this, according to Boenher, if Polosi had kept her big yap shut, the bail out would have of passed.

Oh dear, what can the matter be, Boehner has locked Pelosi in the lavatory, and no one knows she is there. Oh Barney you can't save her there, the GOP 12 will waver there, and now one can find them there.

Frank needs to go ask, Green, Green, and Jackson-Lee why the fuck they voted no before bothering a single republican.

Again its ludicris to expect a minority party to bring out the vote, if the majority party cannot even muster 60%.

in the case of this bill, the minority won't pass it if the minority won't help, because its that controversial.
 

SlickSnake

Diamond Member
May 29, 2007
5,235
2
0
Originally posted by: Glavinsolo
It's quite odd but that guy on youtube.com theforerunner777 back in may predicted the collapse to be in september

Not odd at all, generally this present economic climate is very cyclical and predictable for this time of year. People blew money this summer on gas, vacations and spending money to entertain their kids. Then school starts and they have to spend even more on the little rug rats to buy them new clothes, supplies, checkups at the doctors for shots or teeth, that kind of thing. When this happens, less money is to be had in the major retail sectors as a whole for luxury spending, like new houses, cars or other unneeded items like HT or HDTV or other electronics doodads. So the retail sector as a whole has the hohums about this time every year, in the run up to people saving money to blow later on Xmas.

What this present banking mess means along with expensive gas and other rising bills is that tight consumer spending is going to continue to hurt the economy and luxury retail sectors for the long term and this is NOT going to be a very merry xmas at all this year. Unless you want to either starve or buy a new HDTV. I think most people will choose food over a new HDTV, but quite a few could use to starve for a few months. Hey, I got to eat too, you know. They will be finding people dead in front of their new HDTVs starved to death, whole families even. But at least they will die happy watching Heros in high definition!:p

And I might add, I have a feeling most of the avid, if not rabid, bailout supporters have some directly vested interest in the government bailing out their companies, assets, stocks, whatever the case may be. It sucks to be you guys, but investing is a risk you choose to take, and it's not forced upon you. Investing is just like gambling, you either win or lose, but most of the time unless you are extremely smart, you are gonna lose at some point and it's not the taxpayers responsibility to bail you out or shore up your poor investments or jobs.
 

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,562
9
81
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: JS80

Wow you are finally asking the right questions. It's called fear and uncertainty. Why did the stock market crash? why do prices for anything drop? Because investors THINK their earnings in the future will drop.

And it all goes back to liquidity and confidence. Right now the US Treasury is the only power that can restore confidence and liquidity back in the market. The Treasury is effectively lending money via Treasury bills at 1-3% and "lending" it to the troubled banks at a higher markup. This is called arbitrage.

You can't force the market to be confident. You only restore confidence by entering the market and acting on it.


Why not let those same investors buy the securities directly? Why involve the taxpayer?
Let me give you an example. Let's say GE stock all of a sudden drops by 60%. No news, no nothing. As far as you know nothing has changed. Would you enter the market and buy GE? Or would you question and second guess yourself? Is there something I don't know? What is going on? Let's say it was a some false temporary rumor that got squashed and the stock recovers.

My guess is you probably wouldn't have bought. But why? It was because at that point in time with the lack of info there was a lack of liquidity and confidence in the stock and it was valued at lower than it was due to FEAR and UNCERTAINTY. That is why the "same investors" aren't buying "the securities directly."

Why even try? I've given up on these people, for the most part. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink. They'll only finally figure it out when they lose their jobs, or their friends and family do. Then, they'll ask for help, but it'll be too late.

If we're really lucky, we'll see you and your friends defenestrating yourselves when everything tanks.
 

JJChicken

Diamond Member
Apr 9, 2007
6,165
16
81
Originally posted by: smack Down
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: BoberFett
Originally posted by: JS80

They are not giving anyone $700b.

But by purchasing the toxic assets from their balance sheet for a discount price benefits both the bank and the taxpayer.

Most importantly, it will restore liquidity and confidence to the marketplace.

Buying worthless shit for a large sum of money absolutely is a giveaway.

Fucking hell, if you want to buy worthless shit for a billion dollars, come dig through my basement before I pay somebody to haul the garbage... I mean asset away.

Five years from now you'll be able to sell it for more than you paid. I swear. And you'll be keeping me liquid in the meantime, and by keeping me liquid you keep me consuming and the market roaring. See, win/win situation.

:roll:

It's not worthless. The problem is that people just don't know what it's worth. The government will likely be able to sell these securities for as much as they paid for them if not more. (look at Chrysler) We're not giving away $700 billion, in all likelihood we'll get much if not all of it back... the aversion of economic catastrophe is just a bonus!

Except the plain is to pay what the company had paid for the paper 2-3 years ago.

Is it possible to find a link for that? I thought it was a reverse auction so it should be today's current prices with the aim making certain the banks losses so that they can start afresh
 

OrByte

Diamond Member
Jul 21, 2000
9,303
144
106
I loved it when in Boener's speech he asked everyone to vote yes on the bill.

and he voted no.

:laugh:
 

Reckoner

Lifer
Jun 11, 2004
10,851
1
81
This bill will pass, hyperinflation will rear it's ugly head, and Joe Schmoe from Idaho will be the one who suffers the aftermath. Because some enterprises are just too big to fail, right? Hopefully it's worth it to the bill supporters, having the government take such a large role in the country's financial market. The bill is a disgrace, as are the people who support it.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: JS80

Wow you are finally asking the right questions. It's called fear and uncertainty. Why did the stock market crash? why do prices for anything drop? Because investors THINK their earnings in the future will drop.

And it all goes back to liquidity and confidence. Right now the US Treasury is the only power that can restore confidence and liquidity back in the market. The Treasury is effectively lending money via Treasury bills at 1-3% and "lending" it to the troubled banks at a higher markup. This is called arbitrage.

You can't force the market to be confident. You only restore confidence by entering the market and acting on it.


Why not let those same investors buy the securities directly? Why involve the taxpayer?
Let me give you an example. Let's say GE stock all of a sudden drops by 60%. No news, no nothing. As far as you know nothing has changed. Would you enter the market and buy GE? Or would you question and second guess yourself? Is there something I don't know? What is going on? Let's say it was a some false temporary rumor that got squashed and the stock recovers.

My guess is you probably wouldn't have bought. But why? It was because at that point in time with the lack of info there was a lack of liquidity and confidence in the stock and it was valued at lower than it was due to FEAR and UNCERTAINTY. That is why the "same investors" aren't buying "the securities directly."

Why even try? I've given up on these people, for the most part. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink. They'll only finally figure it out when they lose their jobs, or their friends and family do. Then, they'll ask for help, but it'll be too late.

I disagree. They won't even ask for help after they lose their jobs. They will ask for heads to send to the guillotine, and suffer longer. They will blame and finger point more.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Originally posted by: senseamp
So, are congressional Republicans really so EMO that they decide whether to vote for a bill based on Pelosi's speech? If they lack the ability to act rationally, and instead act out of spite, how can they be trusted to have any power?

For once, we agree on something.
 

SlickSnake

Diamond Member
May 29, 2007
5,235
2
0
Originally posted by: LostPassword
i hope the dollar doesn't drop, im going on vacation in the winter.

BELIZE is a nice place to live, umm, I mean VISIT, yea, that's what I mean. ;)

It's just far enough away to not suffer the effects of a economic calamity, and they grow most of their own food there, so you won't starve. And most of the people there speak English and the rest speak Spanish, just like in the USA, for now, anyway. :roll:
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
Originally posted by: LostPassword
i hope the dollar doesn't drop, im going on vacation in the winter.

Now is as good a time as any to go on vacation, why rush to be depressed, cheer up, you won't have a job when you come back from vacation.

But don't feel like the lone ranger on the vacation things, its what the entire house is doing, after all, they know in 36 days, they will not have a job either.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,942
34,115
136
Originally posted by: OrByte
I loved it when in Boener's speech he asked everyone to vote yes on the bill.

and he voted no.

:laugh:

House rules concerning reconsideration pretty much forced him to vote no when he realized the bill was going down. A bill can only be brought up for reconsideration by a rep who voted with the majority on the original vote. Dole used to get hammered for some of his "inconsistent" votes when this was the reason.
 

Pliablemoose

Lifer
Oct 11, 1999
25,195
0
56
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: senseamp
So, are congressional Republicans really so EMO that they decide whether to vote for a bill based on Pelosi's speech? If they lack the ability to act rationally, and instead act out of spite, how can they be trusted to have any power?

For once, we agree on something.

I listened to the speech, she needed to STFU.
 

theeedude

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,197
126
Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: senseamp
So, are congressional Republicans really so EMO that they decide whether to vote for a bill based on Pelosi's speech? If they lack the ability to act rationally, and instead act out of spite, how can they be trusted to have any power?

For once, we agree on something.

I listened to the speech, she needed to STFU.

Right, because grown men make decisions about one of the most historic votes of their careers not based on their own judgment and convictions, but based on what an opposition leader says the morning of? What she said was what she has been saying for a long time, she is leader of the opposing party, that's her job. Can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen and don't take out your emo problems on the American people. There are plenty of reasons to vote against this bill, but GOP had to pick the most pathetic one they could find.
 

Mardeth

Platinum Member
Jul 24, 2002
2,608
0
0
People are overreacting. All this bailout failure caused was a delay. Couple days to a couple weeks from now, we will see some sort of bailout happening. Probably very similar to this one or possible a different one...
 

SlickSnake

Diamond Member
May 29, 2007
5,235
2
0
Funny how the college edjumacated robber baron bank robbers feel the need for a taxpayer bailout and a free pass to fix their mistakes. I bet there are a lot of unedjumacated petty thief bank robbers in prison who would like a taxpayer bailout a free pass and a pardon to fix their mistakes, too. :roll:

Remember it was not that long ago in 2005 that the robber baron bank robbers ramrodded through congress the consumer bankruptcy reforms just to keep the citizens on the hook a lot longer and to make it harder to get rid of debt which was caused by banks poor lending practices and bad loans that the banks still write off anyhow. Any attempt to reform credit or lending, banking or corporate business practices regarding bankruptcy in that legislation package, like making companies file bankruptcy in their home states instead of shopping around for the best bankruptcy states to file in, was criticized by the bankruptcy reform lobby promoted and funded by the banking industry, and was removed from the legislation completely. And obviously the banks knew they were in deep trouble years ago, which was why they were so desperate to get this bankruptcy reform passed just the way they wanted it.

The banks wanted to make sure they got a free pass from congress so they could shove the debt pole further up the ass of the consumers, with no accountability on their part. The bankruptcy reform group spearheaded by the banking industry was dissolved after that crappy anticonsumer legislation was passed. And there were no banking or corporate bankruptcy reforms of any substance left in the legislation. The financial lobbies now begging for a taxpayer bailout made damn sure of that.

So is it any wonder that the citizens, you know, those financially burdened and over taxed downtrodden taxpayers, know all too well how nefarious and backstabbing the fascist banking industry really is in these financial matters? Even a stupid person financially can figure out the government is taxing them to death, and even after death, so why should their taxes now go to also fund bank robber barons elite lifestyles? That's what this is all about.

And the banks can still shop around their bankruptcies to the most advantageous state to file in, too. So HURRAY for them, and they need to get after it without asking the taxpayers to foot an ongoing trillion dollar bailout initiative to support bank robber baron business as usual in the financial sectors.