Avatar is here!! Go see it now!! Amazing movie!!

[BTRY B 529th FA BN]

232.2 Million dollar opening weekend World-Wide

 

[ktehmok]

232.2 Million dollar opening weekend World-Wide

Good for them. How much did you make off of it?

 

[BTRY B 529th FA BN]

Good for them. How much did you make off of it?

I didn't net anything from it, I'm not part of the studio that funded it.

 

[Arkaign]

232.2 Million dollar opening weekend World-Wide

Hmm, looking at the 40 to 55 % typical pay-back to the studios from box off receipts (the rest goes to the theatres themselves), this could be a bit of a failure if there is a sharp drop-off next week.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i920ea739062c452e52a078c8108e1449

Although I absolutely hated the films, something like Twilight will likely make the studios a LOT more profit than this type of film, as it's tied to a bunch of merchandise, a demographic that re-watches films to a ridiculous extent, and also sells tons of soundtracks.

 

[Zebo]

I'm older than a lot of you guys and let me tell you I felt like 1977 again when Star Wars came out - I was 6 - watched it like 5 times in a row me and my brothers wouldn't leave theater. Just amazing jaw doping visuals. Go see it IMAX.

 

[BladeVenom]

Would anyone watch it if it weren't for the CGI?

 

[Homerboy]

Hmm, looking at the 40 to 55 % typical pay-back to the studios from box off receipts (the rest goes to the theatres themselves), this could be a bit of a failure if there is a sharp drop-off next week.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i920ea739062c452e52a078c8108e1449

Although I absolutely hated the films, something like Twilight will likely make the studios a LOT more profit than this type of film, as it's tied to a bunch of merchandise, a demographic that re-watches films to a ridiculous extent, and also sells tons of soundtracks.

you seriously dont think there is merchandise and rewatchability with Avatar?
Hell there have been Avatar happy meals weeks before the movie released.

 

[ShadowOfMyself]

Well see how people get worked up just cus I said it was only a good movie and not a great movie? People treat it like it's the second coming of christ. It's a good movie that's very entertaining but no where near a great film.

Im as far as possible from being a movie critic but I agree with this... Dark Knight is definitely overrated... It doesnt really have any big flaw, but it doesnt have any amazing point either, its just a consistent movie, and thats what makes it good, but it didnt leave me feeling like re-watching it

Anyway thats off topic... Been a long time since Ive been amazed by special FX, so Im curious about how good Avatar really is... Unfortunately dont think we have any 3D cinemas around where I live which is a shame

 

[Arkaign]

you seriously dont think there is merchandise and rewatchability with Avatar?
Hell there have been Avatar happy meals weeks before the movie released.

Not anything like the hoopla for Transformers or Twilight (both of which are almost certainly much worse films than 'Avatar').

I don't think the merchandising is going to be there to any big impact, I just got back from a trip to Wal-Mart, and there are a few models of Avatar toys out there, and while they seem to be pretty high quality IMHO, don't appear to be flying off the shelves. It's nothing like the wall of Transformers stuff that is still selling like hotcakes, or the nonstop insipid hysteria that the Twilight series generates in a certain target market demographic.

Rewatchability really depends on selling people on the idea that they can really experience something worthwhile at home. Thankfully we've had a big push towards Blu-Ray and 1080p home displays for a while now that is getting some traction, so if they make an attractive package with enough 3d glasses packed in for a family of 4 to watch, it could well sell very decently on BR.

 

[KevinH]

I'm older than a lot of you guys and let me tell you I felt like 1977 again when Star Wars came out - I was 6 - watched it like 5 times in a row me and my brothers wouldn't leave theater. Just amazing jaw doping visuals. Go see it IMAX.

This is how I felt. Totally transported.

 

[lifeobry]

Hmm, looking at the 40 to 55 % typical pay-back to the studios from box off receipts (the rest goes to the theatres themselves), this could be a bit of a failure if there is a sharp drop-off next week.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i920ea739062c452e52a078c8108e1449

Although I absolutely hated the films, something like Twilight will likely make the studios a LOT more profit than this type of film, as it's tied to a bunch of merchandise, a demographic that re-watches films to a ridiculous extent, and also sells tons of soundtracks.

Avatar is easily making a profit. It hasn't opened in China yet, plus word of mouth is huge in person and on the internet.

 

[Arkaign]

Avatar is easily making a profit. It hasn't opened in China yet, plus word of mouth is huge in person and on the internet.

I think you're right, but I doubt it's going to be a large ROI. Remember, the makers/studio only recoup about 50% from box office receipts. The true costs of production and marketing are as yet unknown, but if some estimates at close to 500 million are true, that would require about a billion in global box office to become profitable at that stage. If that fails to materialize, then there are some other opportunities to add to that total :

(1)- Whatever the toy/game deals contribute.

(2)- What they sell for DVD/BR/Cable/Broadcast TV.

It *should* pay for itself and get into the black, but we don't exactly know what the costs truly are, and if the thing starts to drop off at the box office, it could get hard. I'm really glad this film got made though, as JC really opened the door to some next-gen tech that can be used in a lot of future films. Remember how amazing T2 was at the time it was released? The FX in that film, and in other JC films, have really moved things forward for their respective eras.

EDIT : Don't look to China for much $. The top-grossing film of 2008, Red Cliff, took only 45m dollars. If Avatar can beat that and get 50m there, that's only 25m back to the studios (if that). Sucks, but it doesn't look like China cares much for Hollywood films, most of their hits are Chinese-made.

 

[Ns1]

I think you're right, but I doubt it's going to be a large ROI. Remember, the makers/studio only recoup about 50% from box office receipts. The true costs of production and marketing are as yet unknown, but if some estimates at close to 500 million are true, that would require about a billion in global box office to become profitable at that stage. If that fails to materialize, then there are some other opportunities to add to that total :

(1)- Whatever the toy/game deals contribute.

(2)- What they sell for DVD/BR/Cable/Broadcast TV.

It *should* pay for itself and get into the black, but we don't exactly know what the costs truly are, and if the thing starts to drop off at the box office, it could get hard. I'm really glad this film got made though, as JC really opened the door to some next-gen tech that can be used in a lot of future films. Remember how amazing T2 was at the time it was released? The FX in that film, and in other JC films, have really moved things forward for their respective eras.

EDIT : Don't look to China for much $. The top-grossing film of 2008, Red Cliff, took only 45m dollars. If Avatar can beat that and get 50m there, that's only 25m back to the studios (if that). Sucks, but it doesn't look like China cares much for Hollywood films, most of their hits are Chinese-made.

Let me break it down to you guys


300m WW BO revenues = 150m to the studio

Figure they'll double that WW, so 600m or so WW BO = 300m to the studio

Production cost rumored to be 250m, not including distribution expenses

I'd peg distribution expenses on this movie in the realm of 150m, based on similar movies of this caliber

SO -150m after theatrical release, not including interest on production cost

The studio will probably make another...50m or so in video revenues. I'd guess maybe 1-2m in the PPV market, probably another 40-50m in the pay tv market, and finally 10-50m in the free tv market

Merchandising revenues? Not like Harry Potter that's for sure.

Overall I'd bet the movie will lose 150m divided by whoever many financiers are out there


Oh yeah, I do this everyday, so I kind of know what I'm talking about.

 

[Arkaign]

Let me break it down to you guys


300m WW BO revenues = 150m to the studio

Figure they'll double that WW, so 600m or so WW BO = 300m to the studio

Production cost rumored to be 250m, not including distribution expenses

I'd peg distribution expenses on this movie in the realm of 150m, based on similar movies of this caliber

SO -150m after theatrical release, not including interest on production cost

The studio will probably make another...50m or so in video revenues. I'd guess maybe 1-2m in the PPV market, probably another 40-50m in the pay tv market, and finally 10-50m in the free tv market

Merchandising revenues? Not like Harry Potter that's for sure.

Overall I'd bet the movie will lose 150m divided by whoever many financiers are out there


Oh yeah, I do this everyday, so I kind of know what I'm talking about.

Interesting summary. So in other words, I'm correct at the rough 50/50 split (your detail of 300 = 150 to the studio), but you think this sucker may actually lose a good bit of money. Well I guess we'll have to wait and see, you could very well be 110% correct!

 

[Ns1]

Interesting summary. So in other words, I'm correct at the rough 50/50 split (your detail of 300 = 150 to the studio), but you think this sucker may actually lose a good bit of money. Well I guess we'll have to wait and see, you could very well be 110% correct!

You are correct in that theatrical revenues are a rough 50/50 split

 

[Riceninja]

fucking amazing movie. sure, the plot isnt the most original, but this is the most immersive film i've seen in the last 5 years

 

[ProfJohn]

The film is expected to make a profit.

It cost $237m to make, less than Spider-Man 3, Pirates 3 and the last Harry Potter movie. In addition they have spent $150 million to market the film for a grand total of less than $400 million.

I'm guessing that the movie makes at least double that amount when all is said and done. Keep in mind that only 13 films have ever exceed $200m worldwide in their first week all but 2 of those ended up with a total box office of $800 million or more. (The two that failed were Matrix Revolutions and War of the Worlds)

http://www.thewrap.com/article/true-cost-and-consequences-avatar-11206?page=1

 

[Arkaign]

fucking amazing movie. sure, the plot isnt the most original, but this is the most immersive film i've seen in the last 5 years

That's what technical wizardry can do! I really hope to see that level of production used with films with hopefully superior screenplays and acting (can't judge for myself yet as I haven't seen it, but the general consensus seems to be that the film has incredible visuals, but some of the acting is barely passable and that the plot is extremely derivative and predictable even for 'action flick' standards).

 

[Ns1]

The film is expected to make a profit.

It cost $237m to make, less than Spider-Man 3, Pirates 3 and the last Harry Potter movie. In addition they have spent $150 million to market the film for a grand total of less than $400 million.

I'm guessing that the movie makes at least double that amount when all is said and done. Keep in mind that only 13 films have ever exceed $200m worldwide in their first week all but 2 of those ended up with a total box office of $800 million or more. (The two that failed were Matrix Revolutions and War of the Worlds)

http://www.thewrap.com/article/true-cost-and-consequences-avatar-11206?page=1

Several things that article doesn't take into account

1. Interest
2. Residuals
3. Back-end compensation tied to producers/directors

I'm not saying that the movie won't make money, it's just RIDICULOUSLY HARD with a budget that big. Regardless, only time will tell. 800m WW BO would be the bare minimum the movie would need to come CLOSE to breakeven.

 

[cliftonite]

Several things that article doesn't take into account

1. Interest
2. Residuals
3. Back-end compensation tied to producers/directors

I'm not saying that the movie won't make money, it's just RIDICULOUSLY HARD with a budget that big. Regardless, only time will tell. 800m WW BO would be the bare minimum the movie would need to come CLOSE to breakeven.

Its at $285 million in 4 days. It should break $1 billion WW.

 

[Raduque]

Can you watch this without those ridiculous glasses?

 

[prism]

I couldn't believe how amazing the visuals were for the humans in the movie. It's crazy that they're CG. However, IMO the rest of the visuals were really good but nothing mindblowing. The story was also INCREDIBLY predictable, and is nothing but a rehash of the Pocahontas story, Dances With Wolves, and others that I can't think of atm. Plus, I saw it in IMAX 3D and I and everyone else I saw it with had massive headaches afterwards. I REALLY hope this 3D bullhonkey crap ends soon, as 10 minutes of "wow" factor is not worth the pain.

The only plus I can give this movie is the awesomeness of Stephen Lang.

 

[lifeobry]

Plus, I saw it in IMAX 3D and I and everyone else I saw it with had massive headaches afterwards. I REALLY hope this 3D bullhonkey crap ends soon, as 10 minutes of "wow" factor is not worth the pain.

Yeah I was feeling fine after the movie. Weird that you guys got headaches.

 

[Reckoner]

Just got back from seeing this at the IMAX. Forgettable story, but the visual effects were pretty amazing. Those along make it worth the price of admission. However, the film was way too long. Stunning graphics can only hold your attention for so long; eventually you need the script to reel you in. While the story was certainly passable, it wasn't anything memorable.

 

[zerocool84]

Can you watch this without those ridiculous glasses?

No if you want to see it in 3-D but no big deal to not see it in 3D. It doesn't make the movie any better and it's just as beautiful without it.