Are you a werewolf Game 14 (Evil wins!)

[HamburgerBoy]

Who else would MonKENy vote for? drum's observation that ALIVE was good therefore MonKENy voting for him early on makes MonKENy suspicious makes no sense. The only person that knew ALIVE was good was his mason partner.

I agree that Chiropteran is suspicious right now, however.

 

[Chiropteran]

I agree with both your observations and the reasoning on which they are based. Furthermore, I am adding Chiropteran to the list of suspected baddies. The mason outing himself makes zero sense from a team good perspective. As you said, it not only gives team bad another sure kill, it also narrows down the seer options. Neither are good things.

Furthermore, MonKENy voted for me, even though I wasn't the first to vote for him either day. Noticeably, he did so on day 2 after I pointed out that I was voting for him again. He took the bait. He also voted for ALIVE, an innocent, on day one. A lot of small things add up to one conclusion, he's a baddie.

I find a lot of things wrong with your reasoning.

First of all, over half of us voted for alive. It's not really telling at all if we voted for him, except it *probably* means the ones who voted for him don't include the other mason, except even that isn't a sure thing- i.e. alive was a mason and voted for himself.

As far as monkey voting for you after you voted for him, that isn't unusual. It's very common for an innocent to counter-vote against the first person to vote for them.

As far as the mason outing himself, I disagree. The evils are guaranteed a goodie kill if they want one, by killing the outed king prince. The real goal for them, of course, is to find the seer, so they must choose between going for the sure-good prince, or taking a risk and hoping to find the seer. If you add a known mason into the equation they must choose between killing the prince & mason in the next two turns, or ignoring them and trying for the seer. If the evils choose to go for the seer, it doesn't help them that the mason is outed, because they won't eat him anyway. On the other hand, if the evils fo want to kill the prince & mason first before moving on to random kills in hopes of finding the seer, that means our seer gets 2 more turns unmolested to get some real quality information.

IMO it's win-win for the village. Either the wolves let our seer work and get outed, or they don't get any benefit at all out of knowing the identity of the mason. The village on the other hand has a known good player who they can trust and that increases the chances of picking a good lynch.

I'm kinda thinking you are acting a bit like the cultist would- just giving generally bad advice since you don't want the village to win, but not picking any specific lynch target since you don't know who your fellow evil team members are. Hmm. I'm going to leave my lynch vote as-is though, I have a funny feeling about juju.

 

[drum]

Who else would MonKENy vote for? drum's observation that ALIVE was good therefore MonKENy voting for him early on makes MonKENy suspicious makes no sense. The only person that knew ALIVE was good was his mason partner.

I agree that Chiropteran is suspicious right now, however.

I think before I said that the wolf would know, but that's actually not true since he would only know the cub. That's a fair point

 

[HamburgerBoy]

As far as the mason outing himself, I disagree. The evils are guaranteed a goodie kill if they want one, by killing the outed king prince. The real goal for them, of course, is to find the seer, so they must choose between going for the sure-good prince, or taking a risk and hoping to find the seer. If you add a known mason into the equation they must choose between killing the prince & mason in the next two turns, or ignoring them and trying for the seer. If the evils choose to go for the seer, it doesn't help them that the mason is outed, because they won't eat him anyway. On the other hand, if the evils fo want to kill the prince & mason first before moving on to random kills in hopes of finding the seer, that means our seer gets 2 more turns unmolested to get some real quality information.

IMO it's win-win for the village. Either the wolves let our seer work and get outed, or they don't get any benefit at all out of knowing the identity of the mason. The village on the other hand has a known good player who they can trust and that increases the chances of picking a good lynch.

An outed mason is still one less person they know not to eat tonight, right? If they know the identity of two powerless townies, all they have to do is get lucky on eating the seer (which wouldn't be that hard) and they basically win, with one more deceitful lynching.

 

[dustb0wlkid]

I find a lot of things wrong with your reasoning.

First of all, over half of us voted for alive. It's not really telling at all if we voted for him, except it *probably* means the ones who voted for him don't include the other mason, except even that isn't a sure thing- i.e. alive was a mason and voted for himself. It's not telling in and of itself, it's just another data point.

As far as monkey voting for you after you voted for him, that isn't unusual. It's very common for an innocent to counter-vote against the first person to vote for them. Except I wasn't the first person to vote for him...either day.

As far as the mason outing himself, I disagree. The evils are guaranteed a goodie kill if they want one, by killing the outed king prince. The real goal for them, of course, is to find the seer, so they must choose between going for the sure-good prince, or taking a risk and hoping to find the seer. If you add a known mason into the equation they must choose between killing the prince & mason in the next two turns, or ignoring them and trying for the seer. If the evils choose to go for the seer, it doesn't help them that the mason is outed, because they won't eat him anyway. On the other hand, if the evils fo want to kill the prince & mason first before moving on to random kills in hopes of finding the seer, that means our seer gets 2 more turns unmolested to get some real quality information.

IMO it's win-win for the village. Either the wolves let our seer work and get outed, or they don't get any benefit at all out of knowing the identity of the mason. The village on the other hand has a known good player who they can trust and that increases the chances of picking a good lynch.

You are ignoring something very important here, and I believe you are doing it purposefully. Outing the mason gives the sorcerer one less person to investigate, which makes it that much easier for him/her to find the seer, who can then be eliminated by the wolves or the sorcerer, if they are the wolf at that point as well. And then we're flying blind. In short, it's not a solid play for team good.

I'm kinda thinking you are acting a bit like the cultist would- just giving generally bad advice since you don't want the village to win, but not picking any specific lynch target since you don't know who your fellow evil team members are. Hmm. I'm going to leave my lynch vote as-is though, I have a funny feeling about juju.

Again, it's not a definitive conclusion, but a lot of small things point in that direction. A lot of small things are pointing at you too....

P.S., pressing the button and taking the decision out of our hands is also a bad idea (statistically, we're automatically below 50/50). Guess who encouraged highland145 to do it?

press the button.

 

[HamburgerBoy]

You were the second to vote on the second day. After highland (aka the King). Granted, I don't really think that means anything right now unless you are the sorcerer, but since MonKENy voted against you quite quickly I think it's more likely that he was worried that his time was up, and wanted to start a quick counter-movement, you being a convenient one.

 

[highland145]

P.S., pressing the button and taking the decision out of our hands is also a bad idea (statistically, we're automatically below 50/50). Guess who encouraged highland145 to do it?

The decision is not out of your hands. You just have to make a majority one in 24hrs. And I still say it should be a rule. Decide a majority in 24 or the DM pops a random person.

 

[Storma]

JuJuFish, since when did rationality ever dictate how we vote? Just saying. I'll hop on the Chiropteran train.

 

[Chiropteran]

You are ignoring something very important here, and I believe you are doing it purposefully. Outing the mason gives the sorcerer one less person to investigate, which makes it that much easier for him/her to find the seer, who can then be eliminated by the wolves or the sorcerer, if they are the wolf at that point as well. And then we're flying blind. In short, it's not a solid play for team good.

I didn't address that, but you certainly are twisting it around against me.

Yes, an outed mason gives the sorcerer one less person to investigate. But it also gives the seer one less person to investigate. The advantage is equal for both sides, actually even more so for team good IMO.

Look, this is my perspective- Currently we have nine players alive. I only know for sure that highland and I are innocent. This will probably get me killed by the wolf (or maybe he will let me live just to make me look suspicious), but here are my thoughts-

Chiropteran INNOCENT
drum innocent?
highland145 INNOCENT
JujuFish evil?
HamburgerBoy unsure?
dustb0wlkid evil cultist?
Storma innocent?
Krazy4Real evil?
MonKENy unknowable/new player

Basically though, the point is that in the absence of information, the werewolves WILL win. They will kill one player per night until they have a majority and they will win, even if the seer outs them all after that it's too late.

On the other hand, with information, the village wins. If, right now, we knew every single players role, the village could simply win, even if the seer is killed tonight.

Basically, the less information that is going around the more power the wolves have, while more information leads to greater villager power.

So I strongly believe that a slight increase in risk of discovering the seer is well worth the increase in villager knowledge by knowing who is the mason.

P.S., pressing the button and taking the decision out of our hands is also a bad idea (statistically, we're automatically below 50/50). Guess who encouraged highland145 to do it?

It's only a bad idea if we don't vote. We need the game to move on, we can't just deliberate forever.

 

[Chiropteran]

Also, very important detail you missed: the sorcerer can discover the seer, but what can he do with that information? He can not kill until after the wolf is killed and he becomes the wolf. He also can't pm or tell the wolf in private. At worst he could post the identity of the seer in this thread, but he will be outing himself as the sorcerer at the same time.

Honestly it's not nearly as big of a risk as you make it out to be.

JuJuFish, since when did rationality ever dictate how we vote? Just saying. I'll hop on the Chiropteran train.

Yeah, I still think he is evil. I don't buy his response, I've seen him play in many many games and he is always a lot more talkative when he is a good guy. I urge the other good villagers to vote for jujufish.

 

[Krazy4Real]

About 2 1/2 hours to go. It's looking like it's going to end up with a random kill.

 

[Chiropteran]

About 2 1/2 hours to go. It's looking like it's going to end up with a random kill.

Please consider changing your vote so it doesn't end up random.

 

[JujuFish]

Where does the voting officially stand?

 

[JujuFish]

Yeah, I still think he is evil. I don't buy his response, I've seen him play in many many games and he is always a lot more talkative when he is a good guy. I urge the other good villagers to vote for jujufish.

Trying to deflect your own suspicious behavior, are we? I won't be having any of that. It's already been pointed out why you're quite possibly a bad guy. Oh, and the two times I was a bad guy, I was very talkative. The last time I was a bad guy, drum and I won and were the most talkative people in the game. Judge me on my actions, not the lack thereof.

 

[Krazy4Real]

Where does the voting officially stand?

Where is your spreadsheet?!?!?!

 

[JujuFish]

So I took a quick glance through the votes. Looks like it stands at:
me - HamburgerBoy, Storma, Chiropteran
MonKENy - dustb0wlkid, drum, Krazy4Real, highland145
dustb0wlkid - MonKENy

 

[JujuFish]

Given that information, and since I suspect MonKENy anyway, I'm going to vote MonKENy.

 

[Chiropteran]

This is how it will play out:

MonKENy may or may not be an evil. I don't know, and the evil juju doesn't even know. He is taking a risk and figuring it'll either buy him one more night to live, or maybe he "luckily" kill his own cultist or something and come out looking like a good guy. Basically he is taking a wild risk to save himself, something a good guy wouldn't do.

However, I'll get eaten by the wolf tonight. This is almost certain.

On the other hand, if the good guys can vote and lynch jujufish today, we can win as a side. I'll probably still get eaten by the wolf tonight, either way, but if we can kill juju first it'll be that much better for us as a team. Unlike juju, I am not taking a wild risk, I am confident that he is an evil this game. I've gone over it enough times in my head that I can't see any other possibility for his play.



Also, MonKENy, if you are reading- please change your vote to jujufish. I assume you don't want to get lynched, and while you can't talk in the thread you are allowed to vote, that should include changing your vote.

 

[Chiropteran]

24 hours almost up. I guess we will see what monkeny is shortly!

 

[JujuFish]

This is how it will play out:

MonKENy may or may not be an evil. I don't know, and the evil juju doesn't even know. He is taking a risk and figuring it'll either buy him one more night to live, or maybe he "luckily" kill his own cultist or something and come out looking like a good guy. Basically he is taking a wild risk to save himself, something a good guy wouldn't do.

However, I'll get eaten by the wolf tonight. This is almost certain.

On the other hand, if the good guys can vote and lynch jujufish today, we can win as a side. I'll probably still get eaten by the wolf tonight, either way, but if we can kill juju first it'll be that much better for us as a team. Unlike juju, I am not taking a wild risk, I am confident that he is an evil this game. I've gone over it enough times in my head that I can't see any other possibility for his play.



Also, MonKENy, if you are reading- please change your vote to jujufish. I assume you don't want to get lynched, and while you can't talk in the thread you are allowed to vote, that should include changing your vote.

You're trying to obfuscate the facts with a wall of text that means nothing. Show me one action I've taken that is suspicious. You, on the other hand, are willing to let it go to a random kill. You didn't call the timer yourself, I'm sure, because you wanted a known good guy to do it so you didn't look bad. It's in the favor of the bad guys to start the timer because they don't know each other anyway. If it turns out I'm right about MonKENy, you're going to look mighty suspicious.

 

[Chiropteran]

If it turns out I'm right about MonKENy, you're going to look mighty suspicious.

I don't think so. I was only saying from the start that we don't know if monkey is good or evil, and it's silly to lynch him when he can't defend himself.

But I know you are evil. We will see soon enough

 

[JujuFish]

I don't think so. I was only saying from the start that we don't know if monkey is good or evil, and it's silly to lynch him when he can't defend himself.

But I know you are evil. We will see soon enough

If I were evil, I would let this go to a random kill. I'm not. You, on the other hand, are irrationally accusing people without providing any evidence. That screams bad guy. We'll see soon enough.

 

[highland145]

See how productive the timer is. We'd still be here tomorrow, waiting otherwise.


Dixie, if the wolf gets killed today, does the cub become the wolf tonight and can eat or is there a 1 day puberty phase?

 

[Dr. Zaus]

The village comes together for the kill! They decide that they will destroy the MonKENy! Burning him a live, as his skin sloughs from his musculature he grows 10 times in size, breaks the chains with his werewolf physique and comes right for the village... The corpse of ALIVE was left to rot on the ground after his suicide and it has started to putrefy... MonKEY the werewolf slips on ALIVE's body, like so many ridiculous banana peals, and falls head first into the silver-smith's shop and dies!

Happy to have eliminated such evil the village sleeps! Though tonight the Sorcerer has gained the powers of the werewolf and will consume someone!

 

[Krazy4Real]

LOL! Nice!