Question are video card prices headed down yet?

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Aapje

Aapje

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Mar 21, 2022
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Market estimates: https://www.jonpeddie.com/press-rel...-in-gpu-and-pc-shipments-quarter-to-quarter-a

PC CPU shipments decreased by -7.0% compared to last quarter and -34% compared to Q2 last year. Overall GPU unit shipments decreased by -14.9% from last quarter. AMD’s shipments decreased by -7.6%, Intel’s shipments decreased by -9.8%, and Nvidia’s shipments decreased by -25.7%.

Desktop graphics add-in boards (AIBs that use discrete GPUs) decreased by -22.6% from the last quarter. -> I guess that this means that (gaming) laptop sales were pretty decent, but desktop sales really went down hard.

Most of the semiconductor vendors are guiding down for the next quarter an average of -2.81%. Last quarter they guided 1.98%, which was too high. -> an overestimate means that they should have oversupplied, so we may see discounts to clear that excess.

---

My interpretation is that AMD has been reducing prices way more aggressively, while Nvidia has preferred to keep higher prices and more stock, hoping for things to get better. That seems like a very dangerous gamble. What if AMD buys some extra wafers from TSMC at a relatively low price and introduces the lower end cards before Nvidia has cleared their stock?
 
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fleshconsumed

fleshconsumed

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Feb 21, 2002
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Honestly, seeing Zen4 performance numbers from the announcement yesterday at a lower MSRP than Zen3... if AMD delivers on RDNA3 promises like they did with Zen4, current gen, both AMD and nVidia is still grossly overpriced. I was kind of hoping to pick up 6800 on the cheap, but unless prices crash through the floor I'm going to wait till RDNA3 announcement/reviews.

Don't buy a card right now unless you absolutely need one.
 
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GodisanAtheist

GodisanAtheist

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fleshconsumed said:
Honestly, seeing Zen4 performance numbers from the announcement yesterday at a lower MSRP than Zen3... if AMD delivers on RDNA3 promises like they did with Zen4, current gen, both AMD and nVidia is still grossly overpriced. I was kind of hoping to pick up 6800 on the cheap, but unless prices crash through the floor I'm going to wait till RDNA3 announcement/reviews.

Don't buy a card right now unless you absolutely need one.
Click to expand...

-Zen 4 pricing really did look relatively good for the performance increases on the table.

Between a flood of used cards, lower current gen prices, and rather reasonable next gen prices there is a lot of downward pressure on the current gen of cards.

Miners are still dreaming though. Guy trying to move 7 OEM HP 3080's 10gb for $800 a pop. I offered $375 with my usual spiel. He counters with $500. For used, mined, OEM, 3080's.

I can wait, he can't.
 
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mastertech01

mastertech01

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Nov 13, 1999
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GodisanAtheist said:
-Zen 4 pricing really did look relatively good for the performance increases on the table.

Between a flood of used cards, lower current gen prices, and rather reasonable next gen prices there is a lot of downward pressure on the current gen of cards.

Miners are still dreaming though. Guy trying to move 7 OEM HP 3080's 10gb for $800 a pop. I offered $375 with my usual spiel. He counters with $500. For used, mined, OEM, 3080's.

I can wait, he can't.
Click to expand...
They are just fishing for suckers right now, and no doubt are finding some.
 
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DAPUNISHER

DAPUNISHER

Super Moderator CPU Forum Mod and Elite Member
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GodisanAtheist said:
I can wait, he can't.
Click to expand...
I can see you now -

sad-pablo-lonely.gif
 
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GodisanAtheist

GodisanAtheist

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Maybe its just me (in fact I'm sure its just me based on some of the pricing I'm seeing) but now that I'm looking to put real money down for a card the 8GB 3060Ti and 3070's are giving me some cold feet. I'm finding myself drawn to the 6700XT 12gb, 3080 10GB, and up on either respective side.

8GB just feels like not enough ram in 2022, especially for a card I'll likely end up keeping for a minimum of 4-5 years.
 
GodisanAtheist

GodisanAtheist

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VirtualLarry said:
Seen the Sapphire 6700 non-XT 10GB? It's $350.
Click to expand...

- Yes, but I'm considering the 6700XT as my floor for performance this upgrade. I know the 6700 isn't far off, probably ~7-10% behind in raster performance, but lower is lower.

Additionally, 6700 is a bit too new to be readily available used, and It won't be long before I can swing a 6700XT for $275 or less. $350 should really be getting me 6800 and up performance tier, used.
 
Aapje

Aapje

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Mar 21, 2022
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GodisanAtheist said:
Maybe its just me (in fact I'm sure its just me based on some of the pricing I'm seeing) but now that I'm looking to put real money down for a card the 8GB 3060Ti and 3070's are giving me some cold feet. I'm finding myself drawn to the 6700XT 12gb, 3080 10GB, and up on either respective side.
Click to expand...

Why not wait a little longer? Nvidia has said that they will do bigger discounts.
 
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biostud

biostud

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Feb 27, 2003
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Aapje said:
Market estimates: https://www.jonpeddie.com/press-rel...-in-gpu-and-pc-shipments-quarter-to-quarter-a

PC CPU shipments decreased by -7.0% compared to last quarter and -34% compared to Q2 last year. Overall GPU unit shipments decreased by -14.9% from last quarter. AMD’s shipments decreased by -7.6%, Intel’s shipments decreased by -9.8%, and Nvidia’s shipments decreased by -25.7%.

Desktop graphics add-in boards (AIBs that use discrete GPUs) decreased by -22.6% from the last quarter. -> I guess that this means that (gaming) laptop sales were pretty decent, but desktop sales really went down hard.

Most of the semiconductor vendors are guiding down for the next quarter an average of -2.81%. Last quarter they guided 1.98%, which was too high. -> an overestimate means that they should have oversupplied, so we may see discounts to clear that excess.

---

My interpretation is that AMD has been reducing prices way more aggressively, while Nvidia has preferred to keep higher prices and more stock, hoping for things to get better. That seems like a very dangerous gamble. What if AMD buys some extra wafers from TSMC at a relatively low price and introduces the lower end cards before Nvidia has cleared their stock?
Click to expand...
Or nvidia simply sold a lot more video cards before compared to AMD?

They still try to sell the heavily discounted 3090 cards as a good offer, but I'm pretty sure that those looking for video cards in that price range either already owns a 3090 or are waiting for the 4090.
 
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GodisanAtheist

GodisanAtheist

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Aapje said:
Why not wait a little longer? Nvidia has said that they will do bigger discounts.
Click to expand...

- I have firm price points that I'm adhering to, not a penny over. If I get a card for that price, why not get it today instead of tomorrow? Even if new card prices drop, I'll be happy with my pick. Additionally, after several bad experiences where things failed to work out of the box, I've almost completely given up on buying new electronics for myself. Why not have someone stress test them for me first before I buy them on deep discount?

Also there is absolutely no universe where something like a *brand new* 3080 12gb are going to ever drop to a price I will be willing to buy them for (I doubt they'll ever go below $500) and AMD frankly seems to just be in a much better situation stock wise on account of just producing less cards than NV over the last couple years, so I don't anticipate huge discounts on their new inventory down into the $300-400 range.

I am seeing a strong downward pressure on a lot of used cards now. Sale prices seem to be dropping by ~$100 every month for the last 3 months on used inventory. Should have something in hand by the next month, but unless I look and bid I wouldn't be aware of the trend. Also don't want to overshoot like I did back in 2020 with the RTX 2xxx series and accidentally wait until the cards started going up in price.
 
I

igor_kavinski

Lifer
Jul 27, 2020
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If Nvidia's price cuts are drastic enough, they would cause used prices to plunge precariously low. If that happens, I'm buying two!
 
BoomerD

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
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GodisanAtheist said:
-Zen 4 pricing really did look relatively good for the performance increases on the table.

Between a flood of used cards, lower current gen prices, and rather reasonable next gen prices there is a lot of downward pressure on the current gen of cards.

Miners are still dreaming though. Guy trying to move 7 OEM HP 3080's 10gb for $800 a pop. I offered $375 with my usual spiel. He counters with $500. For used, mined, OEM, 3080's.

I can wait, he can't.
Click to expand...

And that's why I bought a brand new RTX 3070 instead of finding a used one. Too many miners dumping their cards...but listed as "never overclocked, never mined, fresh thermal material."
 
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