Question are video card prices headed down yet?

[mastertech01]

- Not to make this all ATPN but I get some stitches when older people complain about lazy yoots not earning their keep and I bring up how much of their wealth is directly the result of them buying things (property) back in a high interest rate low cash environment and the fed basically creating wealth out of thin air for them with low interest rates over the last 40 years (combined with a host of other economic factors like offshoring and a very lax immigration policy to hide our inherent labor shortage and suppress wage growth).

We're in for a solid 5-10 years of suck here as the fed recharges its interest rate game, quickly at first and more slowly over time, before the money printer goes brrr and we do another pump and dump on the economy/wages/everything.

We definitely dont want another housing bubble bailout like in 2009

 

[moonbogg]

Damn..I was hoping to sell my 3080ti for higher. Hell last year when EVGA queue finally kicked in for me I was able to sell my 1080ti strix oc card for the same price I had originally purchased 5-6 years ago.

That 4080 4070 12gb is a joke, it should have been priced at $700 $500 to start. We all know the prices won't be what they stated in the presentation.

FTFY

 

[Harry_Wild]

Honestly, we have had a picnic for way too long. Low, almost no interest only gained us higher prices in the end. Comes a time when banks need to start paying interest into peoples savings accounts for a change, like once upon a time. Mortgages arent even normal if they arent at least 5 percent. The sellers market of the past few years was solely due to near zero interest. Sellers were the winners, buyers are going to be taking it in the backside for years to come.

It is the FED that wanted low interest rates and banks had to follow. The made 2.5% off of their depositors by borrowing it into the Fed Funds. They have no obligation to raise their bank rates since their is no safer place to put your money without risk and can gain immediate access to the funds when needed.

When the interest rate goes up the governments interest rate cost go up to payoff the interest on out $34 trillion dollar debt! The FED has to get the economy rolling again for tax revenues to come in again to try to lower the debt outstanding. Interest rates have to fall to to help the lower the interest payout and juice the economy back up so people buy big ticket items like homes, cars. Plus, 2024 will be the Presidential election time again, so he needs to lower both inflation and interest rate before June 2024. It is sort of crazy what Powell is trying to do!

 

[Aapje]

The signals I'm getting from the amateurs is that many have shut the rigs off, but are not yet selling, hoping for a turnaround. They really seem very dumb and don't seem to get that if they turn on their rigs at the first sign of profitability, it will just go down into unprofitability again. So their rigs will just depreciate and collect dust.

I assume that they will get it at one point. Perhaps when the professional farm cards flood eBay. Then the depreciation will become a daily reality, with 2nd hand prices dropping by the day.

Although a lot of miners seem to have a really stubborn 'wait it out' mentality.

 

[DrMrLordX]

He was saying that the 4000-series announcement is actually driving up demand and prices for the 3000 series.

That doesn't make any sense. Those old 3000-series cards are still depreciating. All NV is doing is offering AMD unlimited opportunity to market new RDNA3 products in the sub-$1000 territory.

 

[Aapje]

I do think that the high 4000 prices are driving people to 3000 cards, exactly as Nvidia probably intends.

 

[biostud]

-Guess NV chickened out of their 600w monstrosity.

Or the rumors were there to soften the 450w requirement.

...or it's still out there... waiting...

Still room for a 4090Ti

 

[biostud]

Well after seeing the prices of the new generation of cards it looks like I'm going to be watching for a 3070Ti for around $300. I feel fairly confident that I'll be able to find that before the end of the year.
There is no way I'm paying $900 for what amounts to a 4070. I don't care how much faster it is.

Even if it was 10x faster?

 

[igor_kavinski]

ASRock Radeon RX 6900 XT PHANTOM GAMING D Graphics Card 16GB GDDR6, AMD RDNA2 (RX6900XT PGD 16GO) - justgpu.com

$699.99.

Good way to stress test your sub-1000W PSU if you are unhappy with it and want an excuse to buy a new one.

 

[fleshconsumed]

Eh, at this point just wait till November 3rd to see what RDNA3 looks like. While the prices are definitely down, I don't think they're down far enough considering how close we are to the new gen AMD release. Without mining demand prices aren't going to go up again so it's safe bet to wait and see.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Eh, at this point just wait till November 3rd to see what RDNA3 looks like. While the prices are definitely down, I don't think they're down far enough considering how close we are to the new gen AMD release. Without mining demand prices aren't going to go up again so it's safe bet to wait and see.

It's a shame that RDNA3 will take that long to come out though. All these Raphael builders and Raptor Lake builders will not have RDNA3 on their plate for another few months. It definitely affected my decision to go ahead and wait for Raphael-X.

 

[moonbogg]

All of the new cards are realistically 2023 products. There are major releases coming soon and the used market still needs to shake out. I expect scalpers and panic buyers to clear out any new release stock for several months, as usual. Looking forward to scalped 4090's for $3000 on ebay and none at retailers. Not a stretch really as they are already going to be $2k, and anyone spending 2k would just as well spend 3k or 5k. Early next year we'll have a better idea of what's going on and where things will be.

 

[IntelUser2000]

The signals I'm getting from the amateurs is that many have shut the rigs off, but are not yet selling, hoping for a turnaround. They really seem very dumb and don't seem to get that if they turn on their rigs at the first sign of profitability, it will just go down into unprofitability again. So their rigs will just depreciate and collect dust.

It's just market reacting as they do - delayed. The worst time to mine for example is as prices are falling, because the amount of machines on are still high. Eventually the prices will catch up to reality. Everything has a delay.

 

[IntelUser2000]

If the chip is expensive then surely it's cheaper to have a more expensive board with a wider memory bus and less cache?

Board costs are more or less fixed. The chip is on a new node right now so it's expensive but it'll go down. The talk about new node wafer being $15,000 might be true in the beginning but after some time it won't be that much more expensive compared to older nodes. There might be a point where the upfront cost is high even for Nvidia but that's not how it is currently.

Cost isn't just about components either. As time passes the engineers will find a better way to do things and lower cost. Volume leaders like TSMC really benefit from this.

Optimization such as for memory bandwidth(among other things) also benefit the lower end more. Otherwise they'd have a high fixed(board cost). In the mobile space, it'll result in less power needed to transfer per bit. Caches for example are very power efficient.

 

[pmv]

Should we imprison Florists, too, because they cut down flowers and "destroy the wildlife"?

What is the environmental impact of the cut-flower industry? | Tree-Nation - Project’s updates

#CarbonCatchers series Spring is coming, and with it is the widespread practise of buying fresh flowers to display at home or in the office

tree-nation.com

Carbon emissions associated with cut-flower production can be as high as 3kg CO2 per flower. A large proportion of emissions are attributed to heating greenhouses with fossil fuels such as natural gas. Emissions are not the only problem, however, with the use of pesticides, herbicides and fertilisers polluting the groundwater and poisoning pollinators.

Crypto is a really stupid fad that doesn't seem to serve any useful purpose, but it's hardly an essential 'need' to have the latest video card, even for gaming.

Just had to buy a new one as my existing one just died on me (being ten years old). Didn't cost a fortune to get a second-hand one that was still an upgrade on the one I had.

Cut-flowers, though, should be avoided.

 

[jpiniero]

Board costs are more or less fixed. The chip is on a new node right now so it's expensive but it'll go down. The talk about new node wafer being $15,000 might be true in the beginning but after some time it won't be that much more expensive compared to older nodes.

Not anymore. TSMC wafer prices have been going up, not down.

 

[biostud]

Not anymore. TSMC wafer prices have been going up, not down.

As long as they have monopoly, I find it hard to believe they will lower their prices.

 

[Aapje]

The talk about new node wafer being $15,000 might be true in the beginning but after some time it won't be that much more expensive compared to older nodes. There might be a point where the upfront cost is high even for Nvidia but that's not how it is currently.

Cost isn't just about components either. As time passes the engineers will find a better way to do things and lower cost. Volume leaders like TSMC really benefit from this.

That's not how it works. Costs can go down if the issue is low yields, but the reason for the cost increases is that these smaller nodes need more manufacturing steps that probably can't be reduced.

 

[VirtualLarry]

A new, profitable GPU-mining coin.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

A new, profitable GPU-mining coin.

-Another **** coin that's going to tank the moment it gains an iota of noteriety?

 

[VirtualLarry]

-Another **** coin that's going to tank the moment it gains an iota of noteriety?

Pretty much.

Analysis: Used market prices too close to new, wait longer for "the flood".

 

[SMOGZINN]

Even if it was 10x faster?

Yup. In the end there is only so much power you really need.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Pretty much.

Analysis: Used market prices too close to new, wait longer for "the flood".

I've watched recent videos of several of the big YT GPU miners that are on Youtube with hundreds of cards each. Pretty much none of them are selling yet. They have turned most of them off and are waiting assuming that mining is coming back.

It's going to take a long time before they sell, most are still in the denial stage of grief.

 

[mastertech01]

I've watched recent videos of several of the big YT GPU miners that are on Youtube with hundreds of cards each. Pretty much none of them are selling yet. They have turned most of them off and are waiting assuming that mining is coming back.

It's going to take a long time before they sell, most are still in the denial stage of grief.

The river Denial runs deep, The quiet before the storm.

 

[Fallen Kell]

Board costs are more or less fixed. The chip is on a new node right now so it's expensive but it'll go down. The talk about new node wafer being $15,000 might be true in the beginning but after some time it won't be that much more expensive compared to older nodes. There might be a point where the upfront cost is high even for Nvidia but that's not how it is currently.

Cost isn't just about components either. As time passes the engineers will find a better way to do things and lower cost. Volume leaders like TSMC really benefit from this.

Optimization such as for memory bandwidth(among other things) also benefit the lower end more. Otherwise they'd have a high fixed(board cost). In the mobile space, it'll result in less power needed to transfer per bit. Caches for example are very power efficient.

That's not how it works. Costs can go down if the issue is low yields, but the reason for the cost increases is that these smaller nodes need more manufacturing steps that probably can't be reduced.

Yeah, unfortunately the last two nodes have seen cost increases for the the wafers. In the past the wafers would essentially cost close to the same as they did on the last node, and with the manufacturing node allowing more transistors per square inch on the wafer, it would cost less to create the same chip/circuit on the new node since it would take up less wafer space (and thus more chips could be printed on the same sized wafer increasing yields over the cost of the materials). That hasn't happened the last two times, with the costs of the new wafers and the manufacturing costs being higher much higher than the older nodes. We have been lucking out in that the performance increases are still higher than the price increases, but things are getting tighter.

This is one of the reasons I think AMD with their chiplet design is going to really start to take advantage of the current situation. By using the latest manufacturing node for parts of the chip that can benefit from the new processes, while using older nodes that are cheaper for pieces that do not benefit from the smaller node (such as cache memory and I/O interfaces), AMD can take advantage by not needing as large of a chip to be error free on the new manufacturing node, as they are using one or more tiny chiplets instead of a 2-4x the size larger monolithic die. This means less wasted chips per wafer, increasing their yield rate over their competitors (Nvidia and Intel), which in turn means a less costly GPU (or higher profit margin). As long as AMD decides to build a top of the line GPU off their chiplets, I think they have a real chance this generation to start outperforming Nvidia.

Nvidia is also paying a premium to get back as a customer for TSMC this time around after dropping them for Samsung for the last consumer generation, and probably learning their lesson that the grass is not always greener with the manufacturing difficulties that Samsung had for producing the chips in volume. Where-as AMD is simply continuing its already existing business relationship with TSMC and probably has a much better deal for remaining a loyal customer (especially since they make no only the GPUs but AMD's CPUs as well).