Apple's iOS beats Android 6:1 on the Web

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

If anything it will release on T-Mobile because of the GSM compatibilities.

 

[pm]

That's not the issue. No one who knows what they are talking about is saying that the iPhone wouldn't sell on Verizon.

The problem is that having it available on multiple carriers will make it not special anymore. There would be an initial rush of people grabbing iPhones, businesses would for sure be interested, but after that the iPhone would be held in direct comparison to the rest of the Verizon line up. Its a totally different game when customers actually have a choice.

This is the model in more or less the rest of the world - the iPhone is available in 30+ countries, and in most of them - nearly all of them - it's available from more than one carrier. Taking a specific example, in England, you can buy an iPhone 4 from a half dozen different cell phone providers, all with somewhat different deals, and it was still sold out for most of the summer everywhere.
http://www.product-reviews.net/2010/06/24/iphone-4-uk-carrier-price-comparison-guide/

In mainland Europe, I saw the same thing - even though it's just been released not that long ago. It sells great in countries where people can afford it - you see a lot of iPhones on the street in the UK... not so many in Eastern Europe where Android and Nokia smartphones seem to be more popular.

I don't think it would be any less of a big deal - and that's not just guessing, I've seen it in person. I think there's a whole lot of people who love Verizon, don't trust AT&T's network, think Verizon is the best where they live and would like an iPhone. I believe it will sell well when - not if - it comes to Verizon.

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

The difference between those places and here is all those networks are GSM compatible. The only GSM carrier other than AT&T in the US is T-Mobile.

 

[pm]

The difference between those places and here is all those networks are GSM compatible. The only GSM carrier other than AT&T in the US is T-Mobile.

But within a year, Verizon will be LTE:
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2010/09/03/4990006.htm

and AT&T will be LTE next year:
http://gigaom.com/2010/02/10/att-taps-alcatel-lucent-confirms-lte-in-2011/

and T-Mobile will be LTE sooner or later... they may not be talking about it now... but that's because they are cash-poor. They will hype up their patchwork HSPA+ network until they can afford to make the jump.

Besides, my point is not about how hard it is for Verizon to have an iPhone (GSM vs. CDMA vs. LTE), but that if they released it, it will sell very well for them. Rude said (if I read it right) that exclusivity is part of the iPhone's mystique, and that on Verizon it won't be a big deal, but I would argue that exclusivity is mostly a US (and Canadian) centric thing and the rest of the world likes iPhones and they sell well.

Consider Japan - which has a mix of CDMA, PDC and HSPA/UMTS but no GSM at all. Despite the mismash of technologies - which is argueably worse than the USA in terms of compatibility - there are multiple carriers for the iPhone (Softbank and DoCoMo) and it has - at least according to one researcher - 72% smartphone marketshare.
http://www.intomobile.com/2010/04/23/iphone-owns-72-of-japanese-smartphone-market-research/

(note: 72% is fairly inflated and relies heavily on the definition of a "smartphone" being crafted to exclude i-mode phones.. or at least that's my interpretation of why only ~5% of Japanese cell phones are considered "smartphones")

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

But within a year, Verizon will be LTE:
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2010/09/03/4990006.htm

and AT&T will be LTE next year:
http://gigaom.com/2010/02/10/att-taps-alcatel-lucent-confirms-lte-in-2011/

and T-Mobile will be LTE sooner or later... they may not be talking about it now... but that's because they are cash-poor. They will hype up their patchwork HSPA+ network until they can afford to make the jump.

Besides, my point is not about how hard it is for Verizon to have an iPhone (GSM vs. CDMA vs. LTE), but that if they released it, it will sell very well for them. Rude said (if I read it right) that exclusivity is part of the iPhone's mystique, and that on Verizon it won't be a big deal, but I would argue that exclusivity is mostly a US (and Canadian) centric thing and the rest of the world likes iPhones and they sell well.

Consider Japan - which has a mix of CDMA, PDC and HSPA/UMTS but no GSM at all. Despite the mismash of technologies - which is argueably worse than the USA in terms of compatibility - there are multiple carriers for the iPhone (Softbank and DoCoMo) and it has - at least according to one researcher - 72% smartphone marketshare.
http://www.intomobile.com/2010/04/23/iphone-owns-72-of-japanese-smartphone-market-research/

(note: 72% is fairly inflated and relies heavily on the definition of a "smartphone" being crafted to exclude i-mode phones.. or at least that's my interpretation of why only ~5% of Japanese cell phones are considered "smartphones")

Well the thing with LTE is that even though it's going to start coming out next year. It's going to be awhile before it's widespread in the US. I think even if AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile release it next year it'll take awhile before Apple starts making a LTE version.

Lots of countries around the world have moved to a multi-carrier model where as the exclusivity deal here in the US has kept the iPhone with AT&T for the past 5 years. The iPhone will probably be released outside of AT&T by the end of next year if not sooner. From this, we can extrapolate that because Apple would rather make the same iPhone model for everything (they took the 16GB/32GB out of the back cover so they could just make one piece for both models), they would release on T-Mobile because it is the only GSM/HSDPA/HSUPA carrier in the US. To think that they would make a special iPhone just for the EV-DO network of Verizon in the US is ludicrous.

I completely agree with the 72% being incredibly inflated. Smartphones in Japan aren't that large of a market there.

 

[akugami]

The iPhone isn't special right now, too many people have one. I know tons of reports say Android is outselling the iPhone currently. But when I'm out I see 9 or 10 iPhones for every 1 Android. The crazy thing about the iPhone, people who own it know millions of other people have the exact same phone. Yet I still get them coming up to me wanting to show me their phone. I don't think anything could diminish the perceived specialness of the iPhone. I know people who own one that act like they're the only person on the planet who has one.

Actually there are a lot of Android phones out there but your eye probably misses them because they are not as noticeable. By that I mean that there are many Android based phones but from different companies and with different form factors and sometimes very different designs. If you just figure any large screen touch phone is an Android based one then you're probably not far off. Whereas the iPhone is the iPhone is the iPhone.

 

[rudeguy]

Actually there are a lot of Android phones out there but your eye probably misses them because they are not as noticeable. By that I mean that there are many Android based phones but from different companies and with different form factors and sometimes very different designs. If you just figure any large screen touch phone is an Android based one then you're probably not far off. Whereas the iPhone is the iPhone is the iPhone.

unless its an iPod

 

[pm]

To think that they would make a special iPhone just for the EV-DO network of Verizon in the US is ludicrous.

EVDO rev. A is used all over the world. To take a couple of prominent examples:
Telus in Canada (6.7 million subscribers), China Telecom (43 million subscribers), Tata Indicom in India (36 million subscribers), BSNL in India (67 million subscribers).

Add these numbers with with Verizon at 92 million subscribers, and Sprint at 48 million subscribers.

It's not like it's that technically hard to add CDMA to a phone - since the baseband CPU is seperated from the main OS CPU and communicates through a serial link based on AT commands, you just swap out the baseband and antenna and redo the command set to make it compatible with the new baseband. Not something that you'd want to do at home - particularly since home users don't have access to the OS source code - but not all that hard for a major corporation to do.

( Note on these numbers, these are total numbers of wireless subscribers - not necessarily just CDMA subscribers. But the majority are CDMA )

 

[akugami]

unless its an iPod

Umm...iPhones and iPods are very very similar and I meant them interchangeably. They're very recognizable is my point. It's almost instantly recognized even if you're not a fan of the Apple devices. Your mind registers it more easily.

Android devices on the other hand come in various different form factors and sizes so it doesn't register as easily in your brain. This is a generalization but you probably see as many Android devices as iOS devices in today's market but the Android devices are not as easily recognizable.

 

[Pliablemoose]

If anything it will release on T-Mobile because of the GSM compatibilities.

Part of any Verizon deal will likely include the stipulation the Apple not cut a deal with any more US carriers for a number of years, so it'll be a Verizon/ATT game.

 

[rudeguy]

Umm...iPhones and iPods are very very similar and I meant them interchangeably. They're very recognizable is my point. It's almost instantly recognized even if you're not a fan of the Apple devices. Your mind registers it more easily.

Android devices on the other hand come in various different form factors and sizes so it doesn't register as easily in your brain. This is a generalization but you probably see as many Android devices as iOS devices in today's market but the Android devices are not as easily recognizable.

Umm...if it has a large screen....its probably Android

 

[akugami]

Umm...if it has a large screen....its probably Android

Thanks for agreeing with me. That was the point of my earlier post.

 

[qwertyaas]

If iPhones head over to Verizon, they will absolutely sell well. There are still people spending $800-1,000 just to get an unlocked iPhone when they could get an Incredible, Droid X, Galaxy S, Evo that either match or in some cases beat iPhones in certain categories.

People still view the iPhone as the 'holy grail' of phones. It's the 'in' thing. Most of my friends have one and ask me why I don't get one. When they see my Captivate, they stare at it as if they didn't know there was anything besides an iPhone. Then stare some more in a 'wow' way.

Don't get me wrong, iPhones are amazing phones. But people that think Android aren't knocking on the door should rethink that stance. Top-end Android devices are really starting to get pushed out - and they are amazing phones as well.

Right now they only thing that I prefer on the iPhone over Androids is the App store. But I really dislike the OS - which is the main reason I opted not to buy an iPhone.

Whereas the iPhone is the iPhone is the iPhone.

For us un-biased bunch, that's both a huge pro and a huge con

 

[rudeguy]

People still view the iPhone as the 'holy grail' of phones. It's the 'in' thing.

ummmm.....what?

 

[qwertyaas]

ummmm.....what?

Many people think it is the top phone out there and nothing else compares. As if it is the only smartphone on the market.

 

[rudeguy]

Many people think it is the top phone out there and nothing else compares. As if it is the only smartphone on the market.

Gotcha. I read it wrong. I thought you were saying that MOST people felt that way.

 

[MrX8503]

Alot of people do think that the iPhone is the only thing out there. But I think I'm quite a bit different from most avg consumers. I've owned an android device and test ran many various ones and I ended up with an iPhone4.

I think both platforms offer a lot, it's just that the iPhone offered more of what I wanted. For me, my main concerns were the app stores and a fast ui. I suspect I could be an android user when android Honeycomb comes out. Whatever they'll call it.

 

[rudeguy]

Alot of people do think that the iPhone is the only thing out there. But I think I'm quite a bit different from most avg consumers. I've owned an android device and test ran many various ones and I ended up with an iPhone4.

I think both platforms offer a lot, it's just that the iPhone offered more of what I wanted. For me, my main concerns were the app stores and a fast ui. I suspect I could be an android user when android Honeycomb comes out. Whatever they'll call it.

I vote peanut brittle.

 

[Oyeve]

I really just comes down to the same thing as the Apple Vs. PC debate, its just that Apple is a company and PC is a term. iphone is one product Vs. Android which is from many dif companies. While I did dig the new look of the iphone 4, after playing around with my aunts phone I just didnt dig the interface. I am not a "one button does all" kinda guy. After getting my Behold 2 and Droid phone last year the the hell I went through with those POS phones I almost did get the iphone 4, then I got a Samsung Vibrant and have been completely satisfied and happy with it.

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

I really just comes down to the same thing as the Apple Vs. PC debate, its just that Apple is a company and PC is a term. iphone is one product Vs. Android which is from many dif companies. While I did dig the new look of the iphone 4, after playing around with my aunts phone I just didnt dig the interface. I am not a "one button does all" kinda guy. After getting my Behold 2 and Droid phone last year the the hell I went through with those POS phones I almost did get the iphone 4, then I got a Samsung Vibrant and have been completely satisfied and happy with it.

Apple vs PC means Mac OS X vs Windows

iPhone vs Android means iOS vs Android

 

[coolVariable]

CDMA isn't in just one country, it is in parts of Eastern Europe, Russia, China and other parts of Asia. The largest TeleCo in Brazil is CDMA, as is a lot of S. America. And of course, the largest TeleCo in the US, Verizon is also CDMA.

So, if you think that Apple wasn't working on a CDMA prototype since day 1, then you are just deluding yourself. Just like how they were working on OS X for intel 6 years before it actually came out. A good company keeps its options open, that is what Dell, just like every other OEM parts from multiple sources.

However, all that is irrelevant. My understanding is that LTE is coming to both AT&T and Verizon, the hardware is going to be the same, it is just the encryption that is different. But why wait until then? Why not roll out a CDMA phone before LTE (just like how they rolled out the original iPhone sans 3G) so you can hit every customer and every customer can see what the performance is like.

Sorry to correct you but outside the US, Canada and Japan CDMA networks are a joke. Even you highly touted Brazilian carrier is phasing out CDMA for data access having switched to EDGA and HSPA.
So aside from Verizon, there really is no reason for Apple to develop a CDMA version of the iPhone.

 

[pm]

Sorry to correct you but outside the US, Canada and Japan CDMA networks are a joke. Even you highly touted Brazilian carrier is phasing out CDMA for data access having switched to EDGA and HSPA.
So aside from Verizon, there really is no reason for Apple to develop a CDMA version of the iPhone.

I'm not going to argue with your basic point which is that CDMA is on it's way out - pretty much everyone world-wide has plans to phase out CDMA. It is a dead-end technology, and the future is either WiMax or LTE - or some merge of the two since they have a lot in common.

That said, when you say it's a joke that doesn't change the fact that a lot of people use it and bringing up new technologies takes a long time. BSNL in India has 59,945,215 CDMA users running EVDO (link). Yes, their future network is HSPA, but that's still 60 million users running on EVDO today. It's not a joke, it's reality. Reliance Communcations in India is using CDMA on a large portion of their network, and they have over 100 million users. Tata Indicom has their Proton+ EVDO system in India - again I don't know their GSM vs. CDMA breakdown but they have 36 million subscribers. In China, China Telecom has over 70 million subscribers and rumors this summer indicated that they are planning a roll-out of EVDO rev.B. Then factor in CDMA service in the US and Canada: Verizon, US Cellular, and Sprint, and it's hard to understand why anyone would argue that there's not a a market for a device like this.

How many of these people could afford an iPhone... I don't know. But it's a fact that regardless of whether or not someone can afford it, if they can't use it on their service, they aren't going to buy it.

 

[akugami]

There's actually an excellent reason for developing CDMA from Apple's perspective.

In the USA, it's pretty much a given that LTE is going to be the future spec. Both Verizon and ATT is moving to LTE. It's not a matter of if but when and how fast they ramp up LTE. I think we can all agree with this.

I think most would agree that Verizon is the most likely candidate for Apple to release a phone for when their exclusive contract with ATT ends, if it hasn't already ended.

If Apple is likely moving to Verizon and it's impossible for Verizon to release LTE simultaneously in all areas of the USA, then Apple's iPhone for Verizon better be backwards compatible with CDMA.

I posted this before but Qualcomm had a brief listing for an engineer with iPhone experience. Qualcomm who makes CDMA chipsets. Coincidence? I think not.

I think in roughly June of 2011 we will see a Verizon iPhone. It makes sense to release it then because traditionally that's roughly the time frame for new iPhone releases. It also allows Verizon to get most major bugs fixed during their initial LTE roll out later this year.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

There's actually an excellent reason for developing CDMA from Apple's perspective.

In the USA, it's pretty much a given that LTE is going to be the future spec. Both Verizon and ATT is moving to LTE. It's not a matter of if but when and how fast they ramp up LTE. I think we can all agree with this.

I think most would agree that Verizon is the most likely candidate for Apple to release a phone for when their exclusive contract with ATT ends, if it hasn't already ended.

If Apple is likely moving to Verizon and it's impossible for Verizon to release LTE simultaneously in all areas of the USA, then Apple's iPhone for Verizon better be backwards compatible with CDMA.

I posted this before but Qualcomm had a brief listing for an engineer with iPhone experience. Qualcomm who makes CDMA chipsets. Coincidence? I think not.

I think in roughly June of 2011 we will see a Verizon iPhone. It makes sense to release it then because traditionally that's roughly the time frame for new iPhone releases. It also allows Verizon to get most major bugs fixed during their initial LTE roll out later this year.

LTE is going to be a worldwide standard. But I think this whole LTE talk was overrated. When people laughed at AT&T for pushing LTE into 2010 and Verizon for having LTE in 2009, I thought that was pointless. Look now. Verizon's not even probably going to go LTE til 2011, and I doubt widespread use will really kick in for a while. I think more importantly is when people will develop phones for LTE on a large scale basis. I predict 2011 or 2012 when that transition really happens.

Fact is 3G UMTS has been around and has been around for some time but no one really pushed it on AT&T until the iPhone 3G rolled around. And only then did we see how bad the UMTS network was.

Just because LTE is coming doesn't mean the phones will flock. I know everyone can go google and pull out a network that uses CDMA, but more and many of those have already abandoned CDMA and pushed UMTS/HSDPA for 3G technologies.

On top of that, for every CDMA network you manage to find, I bet there's at least 2-3 more GSM networks that Apple has not signed a deal with. If the iPhone still costs 20% more than the $599 price worldwide, then this shows that exclusivity has a ways to go. All Apple has to do is open up the iPhone to more carriers and it'll increase marketshare. I think that's honestly easier than trying to build a CDMA version to reach 130 million more Americans.

Furthermore, forget this whole CDMA bullshit and think of how phones in the US work. Every network has their OWN phone. While the rest of the world essentially uses the Galaxy S (China is an exception), the US needs 4 different models. The same goes with other phones like the HTC Touch Pro. Is Apple going to allow Verizon to get a special version of the iPhone? Does Apple want fragmentation and a new product just for Verizon? Does it want to split the iPhone line? I highly doubt it.

Now, at the same time, Verizon doesn't want the same old iPhone that AT&T has. Every carrier wants to differentiate. They want THEIR product, and they want it a different color, a different shade, a different bezel, different everything. Hell, different name too. That way they can go on TV and talk all about it.

But at the same time, I think this will be interesting. Apple has the power to end the idiocy of the American phone market by releasing a phone that goes unlocked and works on any carrier. I would actually like to see this, but chances are the carriers don't want that.

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

LTE is going to be a worldwide standard. But I think this whole LTE talk was overrated. When people laughed at AT&T for pushing LTE into 2010 and Verizon for having LTE in 2009, I thought that was pointless. Look now. Verizon's not even probably going to go LTE til 2011, and I doubt widespread use will really kick in for a while. I think more importantly is when people will develop phones for LTE on a large scale basis. I predict 2011 or 2012 when that transition really happens.

Fact is 3G UMTS has been around and has been around for some time but no one really pushed it on AT&T until the iPhone 3G rolled around. And only then did we see how bad the UMTS network was.

Just because LTE is coming doesn't mean the phones will flock. I know everyone can go google and pull out a network that uses CDMA, but more and many of those have already abandoned CDMA and pushed UMTS/HSDPA for 3G technologies.

On top of that, for every CDMA network you manage to find, I bet there's at least 2-3 more GSM networks that Apple has not signed a deal with. If the iPhone still costs 20% more than the $599 price worldwide, then this shows that exclusivity has a ways to go. All Apple has to do is open up the iPhone to more carriers and it'll increase marketshare. I think that's honestly easier than trying to build a CDMA version to reach 130 million more Americans.

Furthermore, forget this whole CDMA bullshit and think of how phones in the US work. Every network has their OWN phone. While the rest of the world essentially uses the Galaxy S (China is an exception), the US needs 4 different models. The same goes with other phones like the HTC Touch Pro. Is Apple going to allow Verizon to get a special version of the iPhone? Does Apple want fragmentation and a new product just for Verizon? Does it want to split the iPhone line? I highly doubt it.

Now, at the same time, Verizon doesn't want the same old iPhone that AT&T has. Every carrier wants to differentiate. They want THEIR product, and they want it a different color, a different shade, a different bezel, different everything. Hell, different name too. That way they can go on TV and talk all about it.

But at the same time, I think this will be interesting. Apple has the power to end the idiocy of the American phone market by releasing a phone that goes unlocked and works on any carrier. I would actually like to see this, but chances are the carriers don't want that.

Agreed.