Another Presidential Poll Late June 2016

[emperus]

now cast!

You were right. The now cast does have the race at 54-46. But that is if the election happened today.

The forecast Silver reps is the polls plus model. And that model still gives Clinton a pretty sizable advantage.

The model we call polls-plus abides by the principle of “stick with what works.” It’s pretty much the same model that we used to successfully forecast the 2012 election, blending polls with an index of economic performance.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-has-a-20-percent-chance-of-becoming-president/

 

[buckshot24]

You were right. The now cast does have the race at 54-46. But that is if the election happened today.

The forecast Silver reps is the polls plus model. And that model still gives Clinton a pretty sizable advantage.

Now cast is easier to move the needle because it doesn't consider older polls as heavily. I'm only bringing it up because polling has moved in Trump's favor recently. All of the forecasts are moving in Trump's favor as a result.

 

[MongGrel]

Great. Now please shut up.

Nah nah nah nah.

*puts thumbs in his ears*

 

[buckshot24]

This message is hidden because MongGrel is on your ignore list.

Much better.

 

[emperus]

Now cast is easier to move the needle because it doesn't consider older polls as heavily. I'm only bringing it up because polling has moved in Trump's favor recently. All of the forecasts are moving in Trump's favor as a result.

Yes, but he is still losing. He loses if the election were held today given the Now Cast poll you posted and he loses if the erection were held in Nov given the Polls Plus model Silver spoke about.

And, yes some polls have moved in his favor. He is now losing by less.

 

[ivwshane]

Yes, but he is still losing. He loses if the election were held today given the Now Cast poll you posted and he loses if the erection were held in Nov given the Polls Plus model Silver spoke about.

And, yes some polls have moved in his favor. He is now losing by less.

Watch it now, buckshot is an expert on polls and erections!

 

[buckshot24]

Yes, but he is still losing. He loses if the election were held today given the Now Cast poll you posted and he loses if the erection were held in Nov given the Polls Plus model Silver spoke about.

And, yes some polls have moved in his favor. He is now losing by less.

Quit being a hack, please? The polls are moving toward Trump right now, that is my entire point. Nobody has said Trump is now the clear favorite. Nobody said that Trump is going to win based on anything. The polls are moving towards Trump, period. You're arguing against phantoms here.

According to the Now-Cast Trump would lose 53.8% of the time not that he would definitely lose or that he is losing. So you're wrong on what that number means anyway.

Instead of being gracious about your error you have to double down on hackery, "brother".

 

[emperus]

Quit being a hack, please? The polls are moving toward Trump right now, that is my entire point. Nobody has said Trump is now the clear favorite. Nobody said that Trump is going to win based on anything. The polls are moving towards Trump, period. You're arguing against phantoms here.

According to the Now-Cast Trump would lose 53.8% of the time not that he would definitely lose or that he is losing. So you're wrong on what that number means anyway.

Instead of being gracious about your error you have to double down on hackery, "brother".

I tire of the horse race aspect of the media. Always trying to create drama, like you did here. Silver has 2 more forecasts that are more reliable and you chose to drill down to the most inaccurate one but the one that gives trump a higher probability of winning.

Thanks for the clarification of what a probability is. smh

 

[buckshot24]

I tire of the horse race aspect of the media. Always trying to create drama, like you did here. Silver has 2 more forecasts that are more reliable and you chose to drill down to the most inaccurate one but the one that gives trump a higher probability of winning.

Thanks for the clarification of what a probability is. smh

You really are a hack. I am posting about recent polling and as evidence of this I posted the now-forecast which has moved dramatically over the last few days. All of Silver's forecasts are moving toward Trump because of the recent polling. If you don't want to talk about that then kindly quit posting. I do expect an apology as well, "brother".

 

[MongGrel]

Much better.

I made the list !!!!!

 

[ivwshane]

You really are a hack. I am posting about recent polling and as evidence of this I posted the now-forecast which has moved dramatically over the last few days. All of Silver's forecasts are moving toward Trump because of the recent polling. If you don't want to talk about that then kindly quit posting. I do expect an apology as well, "brother".

Actually the polls aren't moving towards trump at all. His numbers have pretty much been flat. What has changed is that hillary's numbers have dropped. There is a difference and that difference doesn't bode well for trump.

 

[buckshot24]

Actually the polls aren't moving towards trump at all. His numbers have pretty much been flat. What has changed is that hillary's numbers have dropped. There is a difference and that difference doesn't bode well for trump.

Hillary drops and its bad for Trump. Wonderful logic.

 

[zinfamous]

Quit being a hack, please?

In the land of the fools, even a silly human like buckshat finds a moment of self-reflection.

...you are talking about yourself, right?

 

[HTFOff]

Hillary drops and its bad for Trump. Wonderful logic.

Hillary lint lickers rest well at night knowing that although their candidate is historically disliked, she has just enough to squeak by lucifer in the flesh.

 

[buckshot24]

In the land of the fools, even a silly human like buckshat finds a moment of self-reflection.

...you are talking about yourself, right?

No, I'm not ascribing untold motives to those I disagree with. Motives that do not exist.

 

[buckshot24]

Actually the polls aren't moving towards trump at all. His numbers have pretty much been flat. What has changed is that hillary's numbers have dropped. There is a difference and that difference doesn't bode well for trump.

Oh yeah, you should let Silver know that you've got this all figured out so he can fix his numbers that show just the opposite.

 

[Mai72]

The hildebeast is looking good.

I mean real good!!

 

[Perknose]

Actually the polls aren't moving towards trump at all. His numbers have pretty much been flat. What has changed is that hillary's numbers have dropped. There is a difference and that difference doesn't bode well for trump.

Oh yeah, you should let Silver know that you've got this all figured out so he can fix his numbers that show just the opposite.

Actually, shane is correct, buck. As another poll which has the two now in a statistical dead heat shows:

In April, Trump stood at forty per cent in the CBS/Times poll; today, he stands at forty per cent.

Where there has been quite a bit of change is on the other side: over the past three months, Clinton has seen her support fall by ten percentage points in the CBS/Times poll.

 

[ivwshane]

Oh yeah, you should let Silver know that you've got this all figured out so he can fix his numbers that show just the opposite.

You should probably just stay away from elections, you aren't smart enough to understand polling and you are setting yourself up for a repeat of 2012.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-of-love-with-clinton-but-can-trump-woo-them/


Now all yourself what demographics does trump have locked up and which ones can he pick up. In my opinion, considering hillarys history, it would be easier for Hillary to overcome her negatives than it would be to pick up new demographics.

 

[agent00f]

According to the Now-Cast Trump would lose 53.8% of the time not that he would definitely lose or that he is losing. So you're wrong on what that number means anyway.

It was always going to be a closer election than most predicted. The GOP crowd is a guaranteed voting bloc no matter how much they whine about everything.

This is reflected in the polls where most of the "fluctuation" isn't on the Trump end, but the flux between Clinton/Johnson. Eg. the two recent results have it 44/6 & 36/12. I seriously doubt many are protest-voting against Clinton come election day given what happened in 2000.

But I was also thinking how much more schadenfreude the british would entertain if our own brexit happened.

 

[buckshot24]

Actually, shane is correct, buck. As another poll which has the two now in a statistical dead heat shows:

I'm not saying Trump is gaining support so this point really doesn't counter what I've said. By losing support, the other candidate becomes more likely to win. Silver's projections show this.

 

[buckshot24]

You should probably just stay away from elections, you aren't smart enough to understand polling and you are setting yourself up for a repeat of 2012.

Not a chance but thanks for the advice.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-of-love-with-clinton-but-can-trump-woo-them/

Great news for Hillary! Hillary losing support does nothing but help Trump.

Now all yourself what demographics does trump have locked up and which ones can he pick up. In my opinion, considering hillarys history, it would be easier for Hillary to overcome her negatives than it would be to pick up new demographics.

We'll see about that. Personally I don't see much upward movement for Hillary. If you're not for her now what can convince you to vote for her? She's a known commodity. Trump can convince more people than she can. Completely, my opinion of course.

That all being said, the series of NBC/WSJ polls came out today that are horrible for Trump.

Hillary leads in

CO +8
VA +9
NC +6
FL +7

 

[compuwiz1]

I find it very weird that the Clinton campaign has outspent the Trump campaign 15-1, yet the polls are so close. It feels like money doesn't matter as much this election. The media has given Trump a very lopsided amount of free coverage, to the tune of $2B. The negative ads from both sides don't appear to be having much, if any effect. It's like people have chosen a candidate and nothing is going to change their minds.

 

[jackstar7]

I find it very weird that the Clinton campaign has outspent the Trump campaign 15-1, yet the polls are so close. It feels like money doesn't matter as much this election. The media has given Trump a very lopsided amount of free coverage, to the tune of $2B. The negative ads from both sides don't appear to be having much, if any effect. It's like people have chosen a candidate and nothing is going to change their minds.

What do you find weird about it? It is the culmination of the us vs them that's been building for generations. It started us and them compromising, but deteriorated due to extremists. Now here we are.

 

[soundforbjt]

I find it very weird that the Clinton campaign has outspent the Trump campaign 15-1, yet the polls are so close. It feels like money doesn't matter as much this election. The media has given Trump a very lopsided amount of free coverage, to the tune of $2B. The negative ads from both sides don't appear to be having much, if any effect. It's like people have chosen a candidate and nothing is going to change their minds.

Well, if that's really the case, Trump will lose the election.