Wait... did you actually read my post?
First, the HTPC DVR market didn't boom because there were two solutions available that people were aware of: the Capture method using devices like the All in Wonder, Hauppauge, or other similar capture cards; or using CableCARD. The problem is, CableCARD on the PC took along while to come about. So if you had premium channels, you either had to have a dedicated third-party set top box, typically a TiVo, or you had to settle for the capture card route, which produced inferior results in the end, and STILL, you had to be tethered to a cable box to handle the allow you to have all the channels.
It has been a very limited market, further limited still by the need for comfort working with technology in that manner. But even ignoring the HTPC route, which your average joe is never going to consider, third party set top box selection was abysmal. Basically, it was TiVo or bust. And you had the very rare consumer-specific STBs from Sony that were barely a blip on the radar. And as the majority only ever knew of TiVo, it was further confounded by the fact that there was a subscription charge. That's why most consumers, faced with a subscription charge (yes, the one time lifetime license was an option, but I bet many never considered it, or knew of it), figured it was better to just have the same subscription charge from their cable company, so that it was 100% serviced by them. It usually cost more because there was a regular box fee AND the DVR fee, but for many consumers, they find it more comforting than the DIY route, even if it's cheaper.
What I envision is not a sudden surge of people wanting to adopt clunky DIY HTPC solutions, I don't think that market will explode. Increase? Sure, as more tech-minded people welcome the idea thanks to an easier to implement solution. But on the contrary, I expect that in years to come, there will be more branded HTPC solutions (w/DVR functionality as one configuration). Think of the Steam Boxes, but marketed for HTPC instead of gaming.
Surely it will be slow at first, because there's the reason why it's not a huge market right now: it's not very popular due to the current situations in the industry. And it's sort of a self-fulling prophecy, in that consumers aren't interested because the products aren't interesting, and the products aren't interesting because manufacturers don't want to invest. Companies have come and gone in that arena.
For example, Moxi was a brilliant solution, I owned one. It was expensive, but it had no fee, and a gorgeous interface. It won some hearts for sure. While it started as a cable company thing, Arris thought they had a winning product and released it to consumers as the Moxi HDDVR. It turned out Moxi wasn't selling well at all, so they killed the consumer business and strengthened their cable company business, with huge success. Whole home media gateways are almost all Arris these days, most with the Moxi interface and features.
The other issue so far has been what I mentioned earlier, how clunky solutions have been up till now. Yes, we see it as relatively easy to combine an HDHomeRun Prime w/ CableCARD and perhaps a dedicated HTPC. That's been my go-to setup and I like it. But getting the whole thing up and running was never 100% straight forward (I never had a problem, but I recognize where it can be funky), and it's going to get even worse as Microsoft is exiting the HTPC/DVR market, essentially killing off WMC. No other marketable solution exists for those users who need CableCARD to access all their channels. Thankfully it seems HDHR's DVR software is progressing, but very, very slowly, and they never had quality software out there in the first place, so it's really starting from the ground up for them so the delays make total sense. They bit off more than they could chew, promised the world then realized they had far more work ahead of them then anticipated.
And the whole CableCARD solution itself is incredibly clunky, and notoriously a pain in the ass for manufacturers. I bet that, with a software-based CableCARD replacement, more device manufacturers will want to get in the game. Till now, what possible interest would Roku or Apple have in introducing a CableCARD-ready device? That's all that is really missing from Roku and AppleTV: a Cable and DVR solution to marry to all the streaming services on their devices. Make it a software solution, and now it's a matter of incorporating it into the OS/firmware, and not a total rethinking of how to handle the hardware aspects.
As for the other part of your post, I think you completely misinterpreted what I had to say about innovation. I am viewing this from all angles, and understand the business side of things as well as the user experience and psychological aspects of consumer interest.
Do note I said cable company innovation is not innovation at all (if you pare down my wall of text, that is), and rather, they play catch up and "innovate" to remain relevant and maintain their revenues as other players catch the interest of consumers.
But that is also what the cable companies are arguing, that they are the driving force of innovation and we will all be better if they continue that trend. Notice I said that's what they are thinking, not I. And I think you may have took a few of those sections as representing my own thoughts.
If I add anything else, I'll just be repeating what I already said. So I invite you to reread my post, but with more attention to detail.
Also, of course cable companies expect you to be the same as the average dumb consumer. They sell all these integrated services because they know that will make customers happy. Hell, my sister even says her Time Warner service is great in the same breath as saying her wifi is very strong. And frankly, I don't blame cable companies at all. Hell, in the end, for those of us who can handle our own technology, it certainly removes the burden of providing tech support for friends and family. If the cable company provides it, the company services it. If they buy a third party device from Best Buy, they get little support, because calling a manufacturer's tech line is a hell of a lot different compared to calling the cable company. And really, it is, and I don't blame people for sticking to cable company services like that. It's easier for them in the end, and usually, something like wifi is free.
Now, leaving the SSID and passwords all the same, that's a different matter, but we can't help stupid.
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