Android As We Know It Will Die In The Next Two Years

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MaxFusion16

Golden Member
Dec 21, 2001
1,512
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http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/11/why-android-will-die/

I used to think that, as with Linux and web services in the early part of last decade, Android was going to be the mortar for the Internet of post-PC devices— an essential ingredient to put stuff together. And unlike Linux which puttered away quietly in the background doing the heavy lifting for services like Amazon and Google, Android was largely user-facing and would therefore benefit from massive platform scale (and the resulting de-facto standard it would create) in a way no piece of software since Microsoft Windows had. To to see the early onslaught of CES announcements, one would think so.

What all of the talk of Android momentum and inevitability obscures, however, is that the dream of a common Android is dying. Three events in 2011 burned it and we're now holding onto a charred corpse that is quite different:

The three events:

1. Google buying Motorola and alienating all of the tier one handset makers (none of which to this day have the spine to state it publicly but all of which have now come up with their "plan B"),

2. Microsoft extracting licensing fees from these same handset makers in the form of IP indemnification and

3. Amazon shipping a wildly successful, yet unidentifiable, version of an old Android build over the holiday... and making it a wild success.

Of the the three, #1 was completely avoidable but the other two may just have been the name of the game when there is so much at stake in the fight of who paints the interface for the next generation of computing.

The result of this elephant dance? Well it depends on who you are:

Web heads: All of the HTML5 folks should be ecstatic as it means that we're going to see a resurgence in startups that target the emerging Android splinters with interfaces which leave the heavy lifting on the deployment side to the the web (see the bit about how the Kindle Fire blocked the Google Market and vice versa for why) and on the runtime side to the mobile browser. It won't be as nice -- and in the short-term and it will lack access to key device sensors (though it may accelerate our getting those as API extensions of the DOM) -- but it is just not feasible to support iOS, Googlorola Android, HTC Sensedroid, Amazon Fire Droid, etc. if you are a startup. Big win for this emerging standard.

Users: Remember the olden days when the carriers were in charge and you got whatever they were serving for dinner? Well we aren't ever going back to that but I can't help remember a conversation I had with the head of product for a U.S. carrier last year at Mobile World Congress where he told me that their ideal world was "5-10 platforms with 10-20% each." Why? Because in that mess someone has to help the user figure it all out and they are back to being in a pole position. I'm not sure they'll pull it off, but device OS fragmentation definitely gives them another at-bat and if there is one thing these guys have proven it is that preloads work magic to overcome totally busted user experiences.

Let's not forget, of course, that as users you'll have to deal with the aforementioned jankiness of HTML5 applications for a few revs. Trust me though, short-term pain, long-term benefit.*

Entrepreneurs: Last year my advice was to build iOS and mobile web app and wait until you've got a million downloads before targeting Android. I see almost no one pursuing that approach these days, so I'll revise it a little: Build an iOS app and a mobile web app and then go hunting for dollars/help to develop for the splinters of Android, opting to build yourself only the most generic bits of app code that you will for sure be able to reuse. If you want to get on a market where no one will pay you either in dollars or in in-kind promotion, go super lean and build all of your interface in Mobile Webkit (through something like Phonegap) until you've got a feel for whether the particular splinter presents a juicy vein of user adoption.

It not a particularly well-kept secret that when WebOS was in its death spiral, HP would happily pay developers to port any application which had shown traction to their platform. To my knowledge the Android tier one handset guys have not done this yet, but given a little time it may become a reality. There will still be all sorts of headaches involved, and you might be better off taking the love from Microsoft, but in a world of several warring Androids, you are the scarce commodity. Though the more popular splinters such as Amazon's will likely never have to pay for developers, especially given the fact that with only one Christmas under their belt, they are already outperforming the standard Google Market in terms of downloads for some app categories, the rest will, probably in inverse proportion to how valuable they will be to getting you users. And in the meanwhile consider them non-dilutive equity financing sources.

It's going to be a really interesting year for mobile. Having tackled Android, I'll do my thoughts on iOS next (and it's not coming out all roses there either).
Click to expand...

I agree that android is dying, but fragmentation probably isn't the main reason.
I think it's rather OEM's inability to offer anything close to the iPhone, iPad in terms of build quality.

your thoughts?



So for you MD&G'ers , this thread originated in Off-Topic thread was moved into MD&G.

So, these to me always present a bit of a moderator challenge because they come over from OT with a whole lot of trolling, name-calling, and often a fair bit of profanity... and they are often fairly combustible, if not full-on incendiary.

So, I'll leave this thread alone for now. Starting after post #105 (Shortlicken's - no offense, Shorty, yours was the last post that I saw), I would request that we shift to a more technical discussion of the points raised in the first post. If we think that the first post is complete rubbish and the thread is stupid, send me a private message and if there's a couple of you and you have a decent reason for why you think the thread is inane, I'll lock it.

Otherwise, we are here in MD&G now which is a technical forum, and there's a higher bar for posts in the technical forum (or a higher level of stodginess, depending on how you view it), so please move to a more technical discussion of the merits of the article, and less a discussion of the partisanship of the person who posted it and who are attacking or defending it.

Thanks
Moderator PM
 
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X

xSauronx

Lifer
Jul 14, 2000
19,582
4
81
im honestly looking forward to seeing how windows 8 turns out for desktops and tablets and what windows phone will be capable of by then to work with it.

win phone gets good reviews, generally, but im sticking with android for the time being.
 
Gibson486

Gibson486

Lifer
Aug 9, 2000
18,378
2
0
I think Andriod needs to realize that it's not a desktop platform. Look at what happens when the new Android OS comes out. There is always a big question mark as to whether or not your phone will support it....and if could support, you need to rely on the cell phone maker to provide you with the software upgrade, otherwise you will have to update the unofficial way. It's a pretty big pain.
 
edro

edro

Lifer
Apr 5, 2002
24,326
68
91
iOS is king and will remain so.
It is vastly superior in every conceivable way.
 
K

kyrax12

Platinum Member
May 21, 2010
2,416
2
81
Google with its vast amount of monetary power will not allow Android to die.

I seriously hope not. I don't want iOS to dominate the cellular market.
 
shiner

shiner

Lifer
Jul 18, 2000
17,112
1
0
Next entry down on his blog "The Kindle Fire sucks"

Yeah...he seems unbiased.
 
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MaxFusion16

Golden Member
Dec 21, 2001
1,512
1
0
DesiPower said:
Apple fan articles will always be gay, don't get brainwashed.
Click to expand...

I'm not brainwashed, just stating my thoughts.

and why do you automatically assume anything critical of android is apple fan article?

this guy took the time to write out some well thought out analysis of the current state of android development.

feel free to disagree, but please state some counter points.
 
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MaxFusion16

Golden Member
Dec 21, 2001
1,512
1
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shiner said:
Next entry down on his blog "The Kindle Fire sucks"

Yeah...he seems unbiased.
Click to expand...

did you even read it past the first line? his points are valid and reinforced by other reviewers.

bashing something without offering a reason would be biased, but being honest of specific shortcomings is being objective.
 
G

Glitchny

Diamond Member
Sep 4, 2002
5,679
1
0
lokiju said:
Was it just me or was that terrible writing?
Click to expand...

Not just you.

Article is pretty much a joke.

The upgrade argument is bunk to me. There is no reason to expect to run newer version of software 2 years after the device is released. To use the desktop argument, just because you can run windows 95 does not mean you should also be able to run windows XP. Sure the small updated 2.0 - 2.2 should be available and for the most part are.

There is no guarantee that your device will support future versions of software, you bought that specific phone, with that specific version, with the apps that run on that version, and maybe some small tweaks, that's what you get.
 
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sao123

sao123

Lifer
May 27, 2002
12,653
205
106
Google buying motorolla isnt a problem, its a solution. It generally guarantees at least one tier 1 handset maker fully and completely supports android to the fullest. To this day all of my handsets have been motorolla native.

Microsoft and apple also both do #2 to each other... so no disadvantage for android.

The only thing frustrating aobut android is the For-Cheap tablets which dont fully support the android market, but are available for $100, so yes number 3 is legitimate, but only affect bottom of the barrel basement shoppers... who would never buy an Ipad or iphone anyways. Its not a desirable market segment, but someone has to sell to them as apple has completely alienated them.
 
SP33Demon

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,928
143
106
shiner said:
Next entry down on his blog "The Kindle Fire sucks"

Yeah...he seems unbiased.
Click to expand...

This. Stop pushing BS Apple propaganda on this forum.

Here's my Android propaganda:

1. The Back Button – The iPhone lacks a back button, a feature which pretty much all Android phones have to begin with. For example, if you’re reading an email and you click on a link, it opens up Safari, and to get back to your email, you have to press the home button, and click on the mail app again. (This was somewhat fixed with iOS 4.0 multitasking but the functionality of Android is still better.)

2. Default Apps – So far, it is impossible to set default apps for certain actions on the iPhone. However, on Android, this is a piece of cake. If you want to set Opera or Dolphin as the default web browser, you can do so easily but on iPhone, you have to open the app up manually, since Safari cannot be changed as the default web browser.

3. Notification System – The Android slide-down notification bar is amazing, however, the iPhone notification system is horrendous.

4. Widgets – Android Widgets are absolutely amazing. The iPhone lacks Widgets altogether. Android widgets can be placed on the home screen(s), and can provide you with quick news updates, live scorecards for sport, messages, email, and much, much, more.

5. Memory – Apple is too restrictive on what their customers can do and what they can’t. For example, the iPhone doesn’t have a slot for micro-SD cards. If you want more memory on an iPhone, you’ll have to pay an outrageous sum of money for an iPhone with a higher capacity of memory.(There is a significant price difference between the 16GB and 32GB iPhones.) Pretty much all Android Phones, on the other hand, have a compartment to put a micro-SD card into, and with the release of Android 2.2(Froyo), many apps can be saved onto the SD card, saving you a lot of valuable phone memory.

6. Integration – On Android, if you want, your Facebook contacts can be integrated into your phonebook. This a feature which the iPhone lacks.

7. Syncing – Personally, I hated having to repeatedly sync my iPhone with iTunes. With Android, plug your phone into the computer, and it’s just drag and drop, which believe me, is much quicker and convenient than syncing. So, your Android phone can even replace your USB. The iPhone can’t even be started for the first time without iTunes!

8. Android Market – The Android Market doesn’t send you back to the home screen every time you want to download/update an app. I have found this to be very irritating on the App Store.

9. Flash – Many Android phones have Adobe Flash support, while the iPhone only has html5 support. Without flash, many videos on the Internet cannot be viewed, making Youtube, Facebook Video, And TwitVid, some of the only video sites supported by the iPhone.

10. Developers – Apple charges people who want to develop applications for the App Store $100/year, while Google only charges Android developers $5, so once again Android prevails.

11. Email – The email system on the iPhone is horrible. You have to manually check for email, unlike on Android, on which you are notified of an email as soon as it arrives. Also, if you have already viewed/read an email on your computer (eg. on Hotmail), it will appear as unread on your iPhone. This is a big disadvantage for people who use email a lot.

12. Angry Birds is Free – Yep! On Android, all three versions of Angry Birds are free, unlike on iOS where they are $1 each.
Click to expand...

http://expertscolumn.com/content/why-android-better-iosiphone

"feel free to disagree, but please state some counter points." lmao
 
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M

MaxFusion16

Golden Member
Dec 21, 2001
1,512
1
0
sao123 said:
Google buying motorolla isnt a problem, its a solution. It generally guarantees at least one tier 1 handset maker fully and completely supports android to the fullest. To this day all of my handsets have been motorolla native.

Microsoft and apple also both do #2 to each other... so no disadvantage for android.

The only thing frustrating aobut android is the For-Cheap tablets which dont fully support the android market, but are available for $100, so yes number 3 is legitimate, but only affect bottom of the barrel basement shoppers... who would never buy an Ipad or iphone anyways. Its not a desirable market segment, but someone has to sell to them as apple has completely alienated them.
Click to expand...

agreed, but those cheap $100 tablets do more harm than good, they dilute the android brand image. Imagine someone trying out android for the first time on those tablets, the user experience will suck, apps will run slowly or not at all, they will inevitably ditch it and chances are switch to iOS as their next device.

This is why apple exerts a draconian control over iOS, they want to ensure a satisfying end user experience, build brand perception.
 
OutHouse

OutHouse

Lifer
Jun 5, 2000
36,410
616
126
shiner said:
Next entry down on his blog "The Kindle Fire sucks"

Yeah...he seems unbiased.
Click to expand...

yea i saw that, the guy can go suck a lemon. I got a kindle fire for xmas and i fricken love it. yes its not as powerful, big, nor have as many apps as a iPod2 but it does what i want. i can watch netflix, read a book, surf the web. play games, read gmail... and about 7 hours of battery life with wifi turned off. for $199 it delivers everything that i i would want. compared to $500+ for a iPad

oh and OP.. Android is not going anywhere.
 
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SP33Demon

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,928
143
106
Just take the list from my last post and create a new thread: "Why iOS will continue to bleed market share to Android". /fansflames
 
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