Analyst predicts PS3 the winner of the next Console War

[EKKC]

Originally posted by: pontifex

Originally posted by: EKKC

a) a shortage does not mean that a system will do well - never said it did, i'm saying thats the reason why the xbox360 sold so well on ebay, right?

b) yes i am milking early adopters, those rich trust fund kids who decides to get one when a friend's got it and they have to be "cool" as well - are there going to be enough early adopters and people who want the PS3 though to create the shortage you need to sell the thing on ebay for lots of money? I'm trying to say that if you think the system won't sell well, why would you try to buy some to sell on ebay for $1000 when they can just go to the store and get one for $600? If you think it won't sell well, what makes you think there will be a shortage then? i'm just asking "what if" questions. for all i know, the damn thing might still sell out the 1st day but with all the negative stuff going on with it and sony, why take the chance?

c) xbox360 right now is nowhere near mature or can be considered doing "great", but remember when it came out near christmas the system shortage? the horrors with idiot kids robbing an EB to steal 2 360 consoles? the ebay stories about selling an 360 photo or a plain empty box for 500 bucks? i'm not going as far as those people, but the legitimate way of selling a PS3 for a profit at launch is already a given. - exactly, there was a shortage. what i'm getting at is what if there is no shortage because people are turned off by the price or the the bad hype around it?

i don't think you understand what i'm saying here

i think we're arguing about nothing here. we both understand what each other is saying, but I still believe that no matter how good or bad ps3 will do long term, or how much bad publicity they're getting, there's still enough ps3 fanboys, there's still enough sony fanboys, and there will still be enough spoiled kids and rich people willing to shell out double the MSRP of the PS3 to get one at launch.

 

[Lonyo]

Originally posted by: Eeezee

Originally posted by: Extelleron
The PS3 will be a good console, but since PS2's market share is mainly teenagers/kids/SOME grown ups, Sony will lose much of it with the PS3- your average teen can't afford $600, and parents aren't going to spend $600 when they can get an X360 for $400 or a Ninteno Wii for $200-250. I don't know if I should get a PS3 myself, I've got the money but still I'm reluctant to spend so much on a console.

Overall, X360 has more games, arguably better games, and a 1 year head start. It's hard to argue that Sony isn't going to suffer this round.

SOME grown ups? You just pulled that out of your ass

Edit: Just to clarify, if you enjoy RPGs or the MGS series, purchasing a PS3 is basically a requirement. Most RPG games are aimed at "grown ups."

And yes, suburbian teens can afford $600. They don't have bills. Any money they make is spent on clothes, CDs, and video games

I don't think the Wii is actually going to take gamers away from the PS3. I think the Wii is its own entity, most people will purchase it AND one other system. I'm going to purchase the Wii and the PS3. I don't like any of the Xbox 360 exclusives except Dead Rising, but one game is not enough for me to throw money at a system. The PS3 and the Wii have several exclusives, so those are the consoles for me.

Hasn't the Square Enix guy jumped ship to XBox 360 though, which means there could be more RPG's for it, and I think there are some FF's for the 360 as well. Though I may well be misinformed.

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: pontifex

Originally posted by: ElFenix

Originally posted by: pontifex
but if a lot of people aren't going to buy it, then there won't be a shortage which means there won't be a need for selling them on ebay for outrageous prices. thats what i'm getting at

there will be a shortage because sony can't get enough cell processors and enough blue ray drives and so there will only be 2 million consoles available worldwide through xmas. those will be snatched up. that doesn't mean sony is going to sell another 50 million of the consoles.

dreamcast was the fastest selling console up until ps2, and look how dreamcast went.

but did the dreamcast have the poor hype the ps3 is getting? i'm thinking of all the stuff thats come out lately to turn people off to sony.

so ps3 has even less going for it than dreamcast, awesome

 

[destrekor]

Originally posted by: ElFenix

Originally posted by: pontifex

Originally posted by: ElFenix

Originally posted by: pontifex
but if a lot of people aren't going to buy it, then there won't be a shortage which means there won't be a need for selling them on ebay for outrageous prices. thats what i'm getting at

there will be a shortage because sony can't get enough cell processors and enough blue ray drives and so there will only be 2 million consoles available worldwide through xmas. those will be snatched up. that doesn't mean sony is going to sell another 50 million of the consoles.

dreamcast was the fastest selling console up until ps2, and look how dreamcast went.

but did the dreamcast have the poor hype the ps3 is getting? i'm thinking of all the stuff thats come out lately to turn people off to sony.

so ps3 has even less going for it than dreamcast, awesome

the ps3 will have a shortage, sony only plans on having 2 million units. its not because of cell process issues or blu-ray drives... sony has been planning only 2 million units since they have announced the launch dates. 2 million at launch, at a total of 6 million shipped by the end of march, 2007 (fiscal year).
its a marketing strategy I believe, to have a shortage, because that keeps an artificial demand, which also kind of spurs more word of mouth and creates a true demand. keeps the initial 'rush' lasting a LOT longer than it should.
so 2 million units world wide at launch means roughly 700k per territory (japan, europe(& australia & new zealand), and north america. of course i bet the European territory(s) get less than Japan and North America. either way... that means pretty much a similar launch to x360 and the ps2. meaning, high prices on ebay.

 

[Fritzo]

If it comes in at $700 like it's supposed to, there's NO WAY it'll sell as much as the Wii and the XBox 360. Plain economics there. If MS upgrades the Xbox with a hi-def DVD player, it'll mop the floor with SONY.

 

[ShotgunSteven]

Originally posted by: EKKC

Originally posted by: mugs
Where does it say he's on Sony's payroll?

fine. edited.
he might as well be.

Wouldn't surprise me, they made up reviewers and reviews for their movies.

 

[Queasy]

Originally posted by: destrekor
the ps3 will have a shortage, sony only plans on having 2 million units. its not because of cell process issues or blu-ray drives... sony has been planning only 2 million units since they have announced the launch dates. 2 million at launch, at a total of 6 million shipped by the end of march, 2007 (fiscal year).

I just made another thread where Kaz Hirai said they would only have 2 million shipped by the end of this year. During E3, they said they would have 2 million at launch and 2 million more by the end of the year for a total of 4 million.

its a marketing strategy I believe, to have a shortage, because that keeps an artificial demand, which also kind of spurs more word of mouth and creates a true demand. keeps the initial 'rush' lasting a LOT longer than it should.

I think in the PS3's case...it is for real. They were supposed to launch in the Spring. Now they've reportedly been having problems with yields on the Cell process and producing one of the pieces for Blu-Ray drives.

so 2 million units world wide at launch means roughly 700k per territory (japan, europe(& australia & new zealand), and north america. of course i bet the European territory(s) get less than Japan and North America. either way... that means pretty much a similar launch to x360 and the ps2. meaning, high prices on ebay.

I'm betting it is much worse than that. Sony hasn't even started manufacturing PS3s yet per Kaz Hirai.

 

[Queasy]

Originally posted by: Fritzo
If it comes in at $700 like it's supposed to, there's NO WAY it'll sell as much as the Wii and the XBox 360. Plain economics there. If MS upgrades the Xbox with a hi-def DVD player, it'll mop the floor with SONY.

The PS3 will come in at $600

MS is not going to upgrade the 360 with a HD-DVD drive beyond the add-on.

 

[Eeezee]

Originally posted by: Lonyo

Originally posted by: Eeezee

Originally posted by: Extelleron
The PS3 will be a good console, but since PS2's market share is mainly teenagers/kids/SOME grown ups, Sony will lose much of it with the PS3- your average teen can't afford $600, and parents aren't going to spend $600 when they can get an X360 for $400 or a Ninteno Wii for $200-250. I don't know if I should get a PS3 myself, I've got the money but still I'm reluctant to spend so much on a console.

Overall, X360 has more games, arguably better games, and a 1 year head start. It's hard to argue that Sony isn't going to suffer this round.

SOME grown ups? You just pulled that out of your ass

Edit: Just to clarify, if you enjoy RPGs or the MGS series, purchasing a PS3 is basically a requirement. Most RPG games are aimed at "grown ups."

And yes, suburbian teens can afford $600. They don't have bills. Any money they make is spent on clothes, CDs, and video games

I don't think the Wii is actually going to take gamers away from the PS3. I think the Wii is its own entity, most people will purchase it AND one other system. I'm going to purchase the Wii and the PS3. I don't like any of the Xbox 360 exclusives except Dead Rising, but one game is not enough for me to throw money at a system. The PS3 and the Wii have several exclusives, so those are the consoles for me.

Hasn't the Square Enix guy jumped ship to XBox 360 though, which means there could be more RPG's for it, and I think there are some FF's for the 360 as well. Though I may well be misinformed.

All three games with the title "final fantasy 13" are coming out for the PS3. That's right, three final fantasy titles, all released around the same time with the same number. It is somewhat displeasing after X-2. However, Square Enix is still developing for the PS3.

The only announcement made for the 360 was regarding Final Fantasy 11. I didn't like that game, and last I checked its population numbers have almost reached a plateau. Isn't it kind of pointless to release an MMO on the 360 when its subscription base is already tapped out?

There has been no word yet on whether Square Enix will make other final fantasy games for the Xbox 360. FF12 is right around the corner for PS2 in America and FF13 is going to be released for the PS3. This isn't exactly "jumping ship," it's more like expanding your market. It hurts Sony a little because it may have fewer exclusive titles, but in the longrun the PS3 is still looking to have a significant lead in the number of PS3-only titles.

Originally posted by: Fritzo
If it comes in at $700 like it's supposed to, there's NO WAY it'll sell as much as the Wii and the XBox 360. Plain economics there. If MS upgrades the Xbox with a hi-def DVD player, it'll mop the floor with SONY.

PS3 = $600, I don't know where you got $700 from
Xbox 360 w/ HDDVD Addon = $600 (MS says the add-on will probably cost $200 if not more)

In the end, the PS3 has slightly superior hardware for the same cost IF (and only if) you want high-definition content. Do any 360 developers plan to make games that run on HD-DVD? Those games might bomb, most people don't buy add-ons just for a few games; remember the super scope? Well, at least the Xbox 360 will have HD content, so those looking for a good deal on an HD-DVD player who already have an xbox 360 can just buy the attachment.

 

[spaceghost21]

Analysts have also predicted terrible game sales for the last two months running, and game sales have been on a record setting pace for both months. Honestly, who gives a fvck what analysts predict. They are just guessing like you and me...

 

[Queasy]

Originally posted by: Eeezee
All three games with the title "final fantasy 13" are coming out for the PS3. That's right, three final fantasy titles, all released around the same time with the same number. It is somewhat displeasing after X-2. However, Square Enix is still developing for the PS3.

The only announcement made for the 360 was regarding Final Fantasy 11. I didn't like that game, and last I checked its population numbers have almost reached a plateau. Isn't it kind of pointless to release an MMO on the 360 when its subscription base is already tapped out?

There has been no word yet on whether Square Enix will make other final fantasy games for the Xbox 360. FF12 is right around the corner for PS2 in America and FF13 is going to be released for the PS3. This isn't exactly "jumping ship," it's more like expanding your market. It hurts Sony a little because it may have fewer exclusive titles, but in the longrun the PS3 is still looking to have a significant lead in the number of PS3-only titles.

No, Lonyo is right. One of the original Square Enix guys that helped create the Final Fantasy series, Hironobu Sakaguchi, started his own development group called Mistwalker and is putting out games for the 360. Two are currently in development - Lost Odyssey and Blue Dragon. Blue Dragon is supposed to be getting released in the next couple of months. Lost Odyssey will be out next year.

Additionally, Square is releasing a 360 exclusive, Project Sylpheed....a sequel to the Slipheed series.

PS3 = $600, I don't know where you got $700 from
Xbox 360 w/ HDDVD Addon = $600 (MS says the add-on will probably cost $200 if not more)

MS hasn't officially announced the price of the HD-DVD add-on. They've only said that the combination of the 360 and the HD-DVD addon will be cheaper than the PS3. The $200 pricepoint is a rumor right now.

In the end, the PS3 has slightly superior hardware for the same cost IF (and only if) you want high-definition content. Do any 360 developers plan to make games that run on HD-DVD? Those games might bomb, most people don't buy add-ons just for a few games; remember the super scope? Well, at least the Xbox 360 will have HD content, so those looking for a good deal on an HD-DVD player who already have an xbox 360 can just buy the attachment.

MS has repeatedly stated that they have no plans to make games specifically for the HD-DVD add-on. Part of the reason is that the read speeds on the HD-DVD add-on would be too slow for games. Since MS splintered their hardware base by offering consoles without HDDs, they can't take advantage of caching for every game like the PS3 can. So they kind of depend on the relatively high speed DVD drive.

 

[nageov3t]

the last study I read figured the age for the average gamer to be around 30.

for a lot of people in that demographic, I can't see the price point being a huge issue. I mean, you buy a console and you'll be using it for several years. hell, I still have my SNES