Question 'Ampere'/Next-gen gaming uarch speculation thread

[Ottonomous]

How much is the Samsung 7nm EUV process expected to provide in terms of gains?
How will the RTX components be scaled/developed?
Any major architectural enhancements expected?
Will VRAM be bumped to 16/12/12 for the top three?
Will there be further fragmentation in the lineup? (Keeping turing at cheaper prices, while offering 'beefed up RTX' options at the top?)
Will the top card be capable of >4K60, at least 90?
Would Nvidia ever consider an HBM implementation in the gaming lineup?
Will Nvidia introduce new proprietary technologies again?

Sorry if imprudent/uncalled for, just interested in the forum member's thoughts.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Its important to remember that we're on the cusp of a new gen that brings a huge increase in CPU & GPU power to the table over what the baseline was with PS4 and XBone.

What looks like paltry increases on last gen games might really gain some room to stretch with next gen gaming engines built around next gen console hardware.

Could see some serious "fine wine" going on over the next couple years as next gen engines built around FP32 throughput and MS direct storage outpace older DX11/DX12 (non-ultimate) centric hardware.

 

[Tup3x]

Leaks I've been hearing seem underwhelming. The 3090 is supposedly heavily power limited. Like 10% faster in most circumstances.

I've heard (Sampsa from iO-Tech) that those "leaks" should not be trusted. I have no reason to not believe him.

 

[Stuka87]

I've heard (Sampsa from iO-Tech) that those "leaks" should not be trusted. I have no reason to not believe him.

Except the same Chinese place leaked performance of the 3080 that was pretty close to what final reviews showed.

 

[Konan]

Except the same Chinese place leaked performance of the 3080 that was pretty close to what final reviews showed.

They ran the test again and got 20% instead of 10%. Different BIOS version.

 

[Stuka87]

They ran the test again and got 20% instead of 10%. Different BIOS version.

20% still isn't much considering the giant price increase. And really leaves little room for a 3080 Super (Or Ti as many are still calling it, I honestly think the Ti name is gone).

Although, if AMD comes out with a card that is 10% faster than the 3080, then the 3080 Super replacing the 3080 would make perfect sense. But I doubt both would live on together.

 

[Konan]

@Stuka87 agree bud. I think there is enough room for a 3080S that will come in November.

 

[MrTeal]

What do you see the Supers coming in at? The Turing Supers came 10 months after Turing launched, and were a straight replacement and upgrade for those cards. Doing something like that in November would be a PR disaster, since at best people would have a couple months with their new Ampere cards before they're replaced with a Super version. If they did offer a Supers for sale in November it would have to be concurrent with the regular models, but that would be a nightmare stack. 10G 3080 / 20GB 3080S / 24GB 3090 is fine, but having a $500 8GB 3070, $600 16GB 3070S and $700 10GB 3080 would be very weird.

 

[A///]

Although, if AMD comes out with a card that is 10% faster than the 3080, then the 3080 Super replacing the 3080 would make perfect sense. But I doubt both would live on together.

Depends. NVidia could push performance after sales. Though at what cost. There has to be a decent gain in return to energy being used. If AMD can come out with a card that's 10% faster at lower energy use than the 3080, then they could possibly win. However, aside from AMD's take on RT they don't offer up other features available to NVidia customers, not to mention AMD's drivers are not very good. The new Adrenalin improves the situation a lot, and they've certainly squashed numerous bugs, but look how long RDNAs been out and how many still have issues to this day, however minor. 20.9.1 seems to have addressed a lot of problems and I'm seeing less complaints than you normally would right after a new driver release. Maybe AMD's RTG is learning a new trick. Excuse the run ons.

 

[Heartbreaker]

What do you see the Supers coming in at? The Turing Supers came 10 months after Turing launched, and were a straight replacement and upgrade for those cards. Doing something like that in November would be a PR disaster, since at best people would have a couple months with their new Ampere cards before they're replaced with a Super version. If they did offer a Supers for sale in November it would have to be concurrent with the regular models, but that would be a nightmare stack. 10G 3080 / 20GB 3080S / 24GB 3090 is fine, but having a $500 8GB 3070, $600 16GB 3070S and $700 10GB 3080 would be very weird.

There won't be Supers in November. NVidia priced the cards low this time, leaving AMD so little room to maneuver that there won't be any price jockeying this time. AMD will probably offer better perf/$ than NVidia. But not enough to get NVidia to alter theirs. 5700XT was $100 less than a 2070 Super. NVidia never responded to that. Didn't need to. 2070 Super still outsold 5700XT. Expect similar this time.

As far as VRAM. That will simply be an extra cost option. I think a lot of people will change their tune about how much VRAM they "need" when they see that a 16GB 3070, costs almost as much as a 10GB 3080. Suddenly 10GB will start looking pretty good.

 

[Stuka87]

2070 Super still outsold 5700XT. Expect similar this time.

Where did you see this? I have not seen any numbers, as neither company releases them. We have to go off retailer sales.

NOTE: Not that I doubt the 2070S sold more, just if you post that as fact, you should list where it came from.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Steam HW Survey. Shows more than double 2070 Super cards in use vs 5700xt.

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 2070 SUPER 2.05%
AMD Radeon RX 5700 XT 0.88%

Steam Hardware & Software Survey

 

[ozzy702]

Steam HW Survey. Shows more than double 2070 Super cards in use vs 5700xt.

bUt sTeAm sUrVeY dOeSnT mEaN aNyThInG...

It sure would be nice to have published numbers so squash speculation once and for all. I'd love to know just how many 3080s were sold, I suspect a ton, but obviously just a fraction of demand.

 

[Dribble]

There won't be Supers in November. NVidia priced the cards low this time, leaving AMD so little room to maneuver that there won't be any price jockeying this time. AMD will probably offer better perf/$ than NVidia. But not enough to get NVidia to alter theirs. 5700XT was $100 less than a 2070 Super. NVidia never responded to that. Didn't need to. 2070 Super still outsold 5700XT. Expect similar this time.

As far as VRAM. That will simply be an extra cost option. I think a lot of people will change their tune about how much VRAM they "need" when they see that a 16GB 3070, costs almost as much as a 10GB 3080. Suddenly 10GB will start looking pretty good.

The gigabyte codes suggest their might be supers coming sometime: https://videocardz.com/newz/gigabyte-confirms-geforce-rtx-3060-8gb-rtx-3070-16gb-and-rtx-3080-20gb
e.g.
GVN3070GAMING OC-8GD
GV-N307SGAMING OC-16GD

Not for a while as that would probably need 2GB DDR6X chips for the 3080 which I don't think exist yet, and I don't see them doing just the 3070.

 

[sze5003]

Seems 3090 reviews are not allowed to be posted until 6am Sept 24th. Sounds like that 10% improvement over a 3080 seems true.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1308358228376461314

 

[Macros96]

Seems 3090 reviews are not allowed to be posted until 6am Sept 24th. Sounds like that 10% improvement over a 3080 seems true.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1308358228376461314

My thoughts exactly. Very shady. My maybe just changed to a big fat NOPE.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Seems 3090 reviews are not allowed to be posted until 6am Sept 24th. Sounds like that 10% improvement over a 3080 seems true.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1308358228376461314

If true, this will be absolutely bizarre. The 3090 costs twice as much as a 3080 for only 10% more rasterization. So what exactly are you paying for? Tons of unused vram and some extra RT and tensor cores?

And how will the 3080 Super slide into this? It will probably be substantially more expensive than the 3080 and will be less than 10% faster in rasterization.

So it seems Nvidia's top three cards will be differentiated primarily by vram.

 

[Stuka87]

Steam HW Survey. Shows more than double 2070 Super cards in use vs 5700xt.

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 2070 SUPER 2.05%
AMD Radeon RX 5700 XT 0.88%

Steam Hardware & Software Survey

Not sure why there was a need for you to down vote my question. It should be expected if you post something as fact, you need to state a source.

Steam Survey has been proven to not be indicative of sales. Even Valve has come out and said this. It is a random cross section of GPU's being used for games on steam.

 

[Stuka87]

If true, this will be absolutely bizarre. The 3090 costs twice as much as a 3080 for only 10% more rasterization. So what exactly are you paying for? Tons of unused vram and some extra RT and tensor cores?

And how will the 3080 Super slide into this? It will probably be substantially more expensive than the 3080 and will be less than 10% faster in rasterization.

So it seems Nvidia's top three cards will be differentiated primarily by vram.

Its possible AIB versions will be faster than 10% as they will have a higher TDP as they use three 8-pin PCIe connectors. The FE model is capped at 375W, and from leaks, they state that it is constantly hitting the power limit (which the 3080 also did).

 

[CP5670]

Maybe the 400W AIB cards will be faster? The FE seems to be power constrained, and is a total ripoff at that performance level. It's really just like a Titan, a rendering and machine learning card (where the 24GB memory is very well suited) marketed as a gaming card.

 

[AtenRa]

There won't be Supers in November. NVidia priced the cards low this time, leaving AMD so little room to maneuver that there won't be any price jockeying this time. AMD will probably offer better perf/$ than NVidia. But not enough to get NVidia to alter theirs. 5700XT was $100 less than a 2070 Super. NVidia never responded to that. Didn't need to. 2070 Super still outsold 5700XT. Expect similar this time.

As far as VRAM. That will simply be an extra cost option. I think a lot of people will change their tune about how much VRAM they "need" when they see that a 16GB 3070, costs almost as much as a 10GB 3080. Suddenly 10GB will start looking pretty good.

RTX2070 Super never got a competition from AMD, RX5700XT was competing against the RTX2060 Super and they really did ok with 40% vs 60% of share in Steam Hardware Survey.

 

[sze5003]

If true, this will be absolutely bizarre. The 3090 costs twice as much as a 3080 for only 10% more rasterization. So what exactly are you paying for? Tons of unused vram and some extra RT and tensor cores?

And how will the 3080 Super slide into this? It will probably be substantially more expensive than the 3080 and will be less than 10% faster in rasterization.

So it seems Nvidia's top three cards will be differentiated primarily by vram.

Yup I'm curious now to see how the 3080 20gb or super/whatever they name them, will fit into the lineup. Why would they even release a 20gb 3080 unless that was the super card?

If it's just a card with more Vram, they could release it in late October following Navi announcement. If it is an actual Super type card, I don't see it releasing anytime soon. More like 6 months from now.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Why? You think that if they allow re

Not sure why there was a need for you to down vote my question. It should be expected if you post something as fact, you need to state a source.

Steam Survey has been proven to not be indicative of sales. Even Valve has come out and said this. It is a random cross section of GPU's being used for games on steam.

Sorry, thought it was you that downvoted my answer instead of addressing. Removed.

People love to ignore steam when it's inconvenient to their narrative, but since most games are sold on Steam, a random selection of their users is going to be proportional to cards sold to gamers.

I suppose in theory it could under-represent some compute users, but that doesn't seem to be a significant concern. Not perfect, but It's the best data we have, and a reasonable representation.

 

[Glo.]

Why? You think that if they allow re


Sorry, thought it was you that downvoted my answer instead of addressing. Removed.

People love to ignore steam when it's inconvenient to their narrative, but since most games are sold on Steam, a random selection of their users is going to be proportional to cards sold to gamers.

I suppose in theory it could under-represent some compute users, but that doesn't seem to be a significant concern. Not perfect, but It's the best data we have, and a reasonable representation.

I'll bite.

What is the Nvidia GPU share on Xbox and PlayStation platforms, which are way bigger than Steam?

 

[Markfw]

Why? You think that if they allow re


Sorry, thought it was you that downvoted my answer instead of addressing. Removed.

People love to ignore steam when it's inconvenient to their narrative, but since most games are sold on Steam, a random selection of their users is going to be proportional to cards sold to gamers.

I suppose in theory it could under-represent some compute users, but that doesn't seem to be a significant concern. Not perfect, but It's the best data we have, and a reasonable representation.

I don't use steam at all, and I am not the only one. Many who do DC work (and I hate to say it, but miners) only buy cards for their compute ability, so thats a sizeable chunk that has nothing to do with sales.

 

[Heartbreaker]

I don't use steam at all, and I am not the only one. Many who do DC work (and I hate to say it, but miners) only buy cards for their compute ability, so thats a sizeable chunk that has nothing to do with sales.

But NVidia also has an extremely strong presence in Compute as well, especially since they have been successful in pushing a lot of applications with CUDA only, or better optimized CUDA than OpenCL, and then their extensive DATA center success. I really doubt the non-gamer numbers would significantly shift things toward AMD GPUs.

If we were talking CPUs, there it would be reasonable, to expect non-gaming users have a potential shift toward AMD.