Question 'Ampere'/Next-gen gaming uarch speculation thread

[Ottonomous]

How much is the Samsung 7nm EUV process expected to provide in terms of gains?
How will the RTX components be scaled/developed?
Any major architectural enhancements expected?
Will VRAM be bumped to 16/12/12 for the top three?
Will there be further fragmentation in the lineup? (Keeping turing at cheaper prices, while offering 'beefed up RTX' options at the top?)
Will the top card be capable of >4K60, at least 90?
Would Nvidia ever consider an HBM implementation in the gaming lineup?
Will Nvidia introduce new proprietary technologies again?

Sorry if imprudent/uncalled for, just interested in the forum member's thoughts.

 

[A///]

Again, I’m not comparing historical costs on the x70 model. I’m comparing its positioning within the product stack. The x70 is historically the better value card, along with being cheaper. You’d get mid 70s to 80 percent of the performance of the x80, usually with the same RAM. Here, that’s not the case. The 3080 is just the better value. The increase in performance looks to be greater than the increase in price, and that’s not even taking into account what looks to be a much better cooler on the 3080.

So historical performance? Right? Because again, you didn't bother reading anything. Here, I'll bold it for you in bright color.

I'll say it in plain English. The days of really cheap, high YoY performance gains due to uarch maturity are long gone on GPUs. Even NVidia with their vast resources used clever marketing with their 1.9x claim. Up to 1.9x more efficient, and up to 2x performance.

 

[itsmydamnation]

It doesn't matter what they call it, or how they do it. The time is up, Navi 2 needs implementation and support to equal Nvidia 3000 in Cyberpunk and beyond or they're frankly screwed. Don't get lost in the forest for the trees. It could be called Nvidia's Donkey juice and Radeon Wheat Goblins, the fact is they have to deliver or Navi2 is dead on arrival. Let's hope they do. We've seen what monopolistic industry segment behavior is like, and no thanks to that.

Your the one uses those as justification for your position and then when getting called out try and change the narrative.
We know that Navi2x has dedicated ray tracing hardware, the difference is where it connects to and that it also involves additional work for the ALU's , remember that whole being bandwidth bound thing, look at today how people have been disappointed about the quoted Ray trace performance jump, 1.6x the bandwidth for something like 1.6x the RT performance.

The truth is AMD doesnt need AI , they just need a good upscaler regardless of what it uses. Remember almost every PS4pro game used ALU's to upscale to 4k even though sony designed a dedicated in hardware chequerboard upscaling solution. The Consoles support 8k as well and there is no way they are outputting to that without some kind of upscaling solution.

 

[A///]

So, honest question; what happens if scalpers use bots to actually buy the majority of the RTX 3080's on launch? They go on Ebay and other sites for $1000 and then what? People just buy them without a care?

Most etailers limit a one product per household rule nowadays. The PS5 sale/launch is designed around this, for example.

Pre-Ordering PlayStation 5? You Might Succeed Due to This Key Reason

Sony could be restricting PlayStation 5 (PS5) pre-orders to one console per customer, as it anticipates huge demand for the next-gen console.

www.ccn.com

Sony and MS can do this on their site, but they can have Amazon, Best Buy, New Egg, etc. enforce it. There's a lot of ways to track customer data without violating laws.

 

[moonbogg]

Still waiting on actual reviews, but I’d comfortably spend $700 on a 3080 from a proper first party seller. Sucks to downgrade from the 1080 Ti on RAM, but I’m not sure it’ll be a real issue.

The chance of me buying a $1000 one off eBay is 0. I’d rather wait for a 3080 Super refresh in a year or buy a Navi card if it looks good.

I wouldn't but one off ebay for $750. I wouldn't buy one off ebay at all. The thing is, this will be the best GPU around, and scalpers know it. Demand will soar and they will get scalped hard. They will sell for hundreds over MSRP. If that happens, then for most people this will be a mid 2021 product realistically or they will hit F5 on the RDNA2 launch (which is what I will do of course).
Between COVID and scalpers, I am less than optimistic.

 

[A///]

Your the one uses those as justification for your position and then when getting called out try and change the narrative.
We know that Navi2x has dedicated ray tracing hardware, the difference is where it connects to and that it also involves additional work for the ALU's , remember that whole being bandwidth bound thing, look at today how people have been disappointed about the quoted Ray trace performance jump, 1.6x the bandwidth for something like 1.6x the RT performance.

The truth is AMD doesnt need AI , they just need a good upscaler regardless of what it uses. Remember almost every PS4pro game used ALU's to upscale to 4k even though sony designed a dedicated in hardware chequerboard upscaling solution. The Consoles support 8k as well and there is no way they are outputting to that without some kind of upscaling solution.

RDNA2 is supposed to have hardware RT ability. However good that is compared to NV's is up to anyone's guess so far. One company's RT ability is not the same as another, which is painfully obvious. Could AMD have come up with a novel way to RT material that's more powerful or as powerful as Nv without a performance hint that's noticeable? Possibly. Again, anyone's guess.

 

[MrTeal]

So historical performance? Right? Because again, you didn't bother reading anything. Here, I'll bold it for you in bright color.

This is obviously not going anywhere. I’ll try and make it really simple. I won’t even compare cards released more than a couple weeks apart.

The 3080 is the best value this generation. The 3090 isn’t a good value, but that’s ok because it’s the fastest thing you can buy and performance per dollar is always questionable at the top end.
The 3070 is the cheapest card. It’s not the best value. For it to be the best value, it should be priced at $400ish.

 

[A///]

This is obviously not going anywhere. I’ll try and make it really simple. I won’t even compare cards released more than a couple weeks apart.

The 3080 is the best value this generation. The 3090 isn’t a good value, but that’s ok because it’s the fastest thing you can buy and performance per dollar is always questionable at the top end.
The 3070 is the cheapest card. It’s not the best value. For it to be the best value, it should be priced at $400ish.

I think you're just having fun annoying people at this point. What you describe is based on historical figures for value, price in relation to performance and general performance. Historical values have zero significance for future values. Do what you want to do, but stop and read before replying, because you're basically confirming what I've been saying for hours now. If the current 3070 is poor value in relation to price and the 3080 because historically the x70 cards had better cost to performance ratio, in addition to what the then x80 cards were, then that is historical data for all three figures.

 

[MrTeal]

I wouldn't but one off ebay for $750. I wouldn't buy one off ebay at all. The thing is, this will be the best GPU around, and scalpers know it. Demand will soar and they will get scalped hard. They will sell for hundreds over MSRP. If that happens, then for most people this will be a mid 2021 product realistically or they will hit F5 on the RDNA2 launch (which is what I will do of course).
Between COVID and scalpers, I am less than optimistic.

Yeah, we’ll see how it goes. It’s not like I need a new card anyway, but upgrading is just so much fun and it gives me an excuse to drain and clean the loop.

The fan on the R9 380 in the wife’s computer is starting to make noises and she’s wanting me to deal with it, so if it does work out it sure would be nice to have an excuse to dump the 1080 Ti in her rig so she can scroll through Facebook buttery-smooth while I get a new upgrade.

 

[traderjay]

Looks like RTX 2080 ti prices on ebay are tanking hard lol..I am so happy I sold all my 2080 ti GPUs back in July for a very good price...

 

[blckgrffn]

Looks like RTX 2080 ti prices on ebay are tanking hard lol..I am so happy I sold all my 2080 ti GPUs back in July for a very good price...

I am curious and haven't been tracking it - it looks like you can get them for $750 "buy it now" and they were "trending" at $1050 prior. Did they just get a $300 haircut?!?

Also, still good for those that can get $750 today, should provide a ~$100-$150 3080 after seller fees & sales tax on new card.

 

[traderjay]

I am curious and haven't been tracking it - it looks like you can get them for $750 "buy it now" and they were "trending" at $1050 prior. Did they just get a $300 haircut?!?

Also, still good for those that can get $750 today, should provide a ~$100-$150 3080 after seller fees & sales tax on new card.

Yep and bigger haircut is coming. We might be "suspicious" that the 3070 is really at 2080ti level but from paper spec alone it should beat it handily.

 

[Arkaign]

This isn't going to be easy on Turing resale value :

Linus is right, this is the biggest leap in over 15 years. I thought for sure Nvidia would make these things super expensive.

 

[A///]

Heh, I almost bought one in December new, and passed on offers of the xc2 models used when they were hovering around $900 with warranty. I ended up spending that money on the Shield Pro, and some other upgrades for happiness. Very happy with my purchases.

 

[Arkaign]

Heh, I almost bought one in December new, and passed on offers of the xc2 model when they were hovering around $900 with warranty. I ended up spending that money on the Shield Pro, and some other upgrades for happiness. Very happy with my purchases.

I have a 2080ti AMP, but I got that way way on back, so I don't feel too bad, I'll probably wait for refresh to move to 3000 series. I sort of feel like we'll see a 20GB 3080ti in 6-8 months. Or maybe '3080 Super' if they want to call it something else entirely.

I think it will also be interesting to see if this i the gen where GTX is ended entirely, with 3050/3060 being RTX as well.

 

[A///]

I have a 2080ti AMP, but I got that way way on back, so I don't feel too bad, I'll probably wait for refresh to move to 3000 series. I sort of feel like we'll see a 20GB 3080ti in 6-8 months. Or maybe '3080 Super' if they want to call it something else entirely.

I think it will also be interesting to see if this i the gen where GTX is ended entirely, with 3050/3060 being RTX as well.

Wasn't the 2060 RTX, too? I wouldn't be surprised if you're right with your assumption. Should be around the time I'll be building. Hopefully a lot of this year's mess isn't present then.

If a 3050 goes RTX, they could replace the 1650 Super's namesake with it if the performance + improvement is there.

 

[AtenRa]

It doesn't matter what they call it, or how they do it. The time is up, Navi 2 needs implementation and support to equal Nvidia 3000 in Cyberpunk and beyond or they're frankly screwed. Don't get lost in the forest for the trees. It could be called Nvidia's Donkey juice and Radeon Wheat Goblins, the fact is they have to deliver or Navi2 is dead on arrival. Let's hope they do. We've seen what monopolistic industry segment behavior is like, and no thanks to that.

Because of a single Game ??

 

[Arkaign]

Because of a single Game ??

Ha, it sounds a little extreme, but bank on it, the Linus Tech Tips, Gamers Nexus, Hardware Unboxed, Jay's Tech, etc etc have tens of millions of subscribers and are hugely influential. It's going to become the defacto GPU benchmark for at least the next year or two, like a number of previous high profile titles before it.

Quake during the Voodoo 1 / Verite / etc days

Quake 2 during the Voodoo2/Riva 128/ etc days

Quake 3 during the Voodoo 3 / TNT era,

And so on and on, through Doom 3, Crysis, Battlefield 3, GTAV, Red Dead 2, etc.

Difference is that now thanks to YouTube, Twitch, Digital Foundry, and all the esports stars and flagship reviewers that PC gaming is mainstream and pop culture.

So if Cyberpunk runs dramatically better on Ampere (or hypothetical situation where Navi 2 kills it), whoever is winning that is going to get nearly endless free advertising from all of those videos, tweets, streams, yadda etc. Game is going to be insanely huge.

That and it's slightly hyperbolic 😅 but I honestly really think whoever is winning the Cyberpunk benchmark news/reviews cycle is going to have a stupidly huge advantage.

 

[AtenRa]

Ha, it sounds a little extreme, but bank on it, the Linus Tech Tips, Gamers Nexus, Hardware Unboxed, Jay's Tech, etc etc have tens of millions of subscribers and are hugely influential. It's going to become the defacto GPU benchmark for at least the next year or two, like a number of previous high profile titles before it.

Quake during the Voodoo 1 / Verite / etc days

Quake 2 during the Voodoo2/Riva 128/ etc days

Quake 3 during the Voodoo 3 / TNT era,

And so on and on, through Doom 3, Crysis, Battlefield 3, GTAV, Red Dead 2, etc.

Difference is that now thanks to YouTube, Twitch, Digital Foundry, and all the esports stars and flagship reviewers that PC gaming is mainstream and pop culture.

So if Cyberpunk runs dramatically better on Ampere (or hypothetical situation where Navi 2 kills it), whoever is winning that is going to get nearly endless free advertising from all of those videos, tweets, streams, yadda etc. Game is going to be insanely huge.

That and it's slightly hyperbolic 😅 but I honestly really think whoever is winning the Cyberpunk benchmark news/reviews cycle is going to have a stupidly huge advantage.

So let me check this,

IF AMD RDNA 2 will be faster in all other games except Cyberpunk, nobody will care and everyone will recommend the Ampere cards simple because of Cyberpunk ???
Thats not going to hapen.

Also to note,

RX5700XT without even having any RT capability (and all the problems with the drivers) and released at the same time as RTX2060 Super, in July's Steam Hardware Survey almost had 42% vs 58% the RTX2060 Super
RX5700XT steam hardware survey 0.81%
RTX2060 Super steam hardware survey 1.09%

Now you are telling me that even though RDNA 2 will also have RT capabilities they are screwed because of the performance of Ampere in a single game like Cyberpunk ???

 

[Arkaign]

Let's be honest though, if one or the other is notably faster in Cyberpunk, it's probably not going to be a one off situation, it will almost certainly be indicative of a wider scenario of overall supremacy. It's just that Cyberpunk will carry by far the biggest importance in scores, the 'headline' so to speak. Nothing else launching has near the hype. Another Assassins Creed? Another Calladooty? Eh. Not going to really move the needle I don't think hype wise. Cyberpunk will sell GPUs by the metric ton, be they Amperes or Navis.

 

[Timorous]

Let's be honest though, if one or the other is notably faster in Cyberpunk, it's probably not going to be a one off situation, it will almost certainly be indicative of a wider scenario of overall supremacy. It's just that Cyberpunk will carry by far the biggest importance in scores, the 'headline' so to speak. Nothing else launching has near the hype. Another Assassins Creed? Another Calladooty? Eh. Not going to really move the needle I don't think hype wise. Cyberpunk will sell GPUs by the metric ton, be they Amperes or Navis.

It will sell RDNA2 by a wide margin in the form of Xbox Series X and PS5.

 

[amenx]

Is 3080 GDDR6x? Or is that only for the 3090? Seeing conflicting info on that.

 

[JujuFish]

Because of a single Game ??

Have you seen the estimates for hardware sales driven by FS2020? I think the number was over 2 billion. I could definitely see CP2077 having an even bigger effect.

 

[Gideon]

Is 3080 GDDR6x? Or is that only for the 3090? Seeing conflicting info on that.

Both are GDDR6x, 3080's numbers wouldn't really make sense otherwise. 3070 though is GDDR6

 

[Gideon]

Nvidia left a considerable gap in their lineup between RTX 3070 and RTX 3080. Some people suspected they had a 3070 Ti in the works (with possible 16GB or GDDR6).

This does indeed seem to be the case:

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070 Ti spotted with 16GB GDDR6 memory - VideoCardz.com

Lenovo has confirmed that their Legion T7 gaming desktop system will ship with GeForce RTX 3080 and GeForce RTX 3070 graphics cards. Lenovo launches Legion T7 with GeForce RTX 3070 Ti 16GB Interestingly, Lenovo also confirmed that their Legion T7 system will feature the GeForce RTX 3070 Ti...

videocardz.com

It seems the lineup, after AMD's launch, will be something like this:

• 8GB GDDR6 RTX 3700 for $499
• 16GB GDDR6 RTX 3700 Ti for $599
• 10GB GDDR6x RTX 3800 for $699
• 20GB GDDR6x RTX 3800 Ti for $899 (or $799 if we're lucky but I doubt it)

With prices varying somewhat based on how competitive AMD is

EDIT:
had incorrect the price for RTX 3800

 

[Red Hawk]

I haven't used an Nvidia GPU in almost 10 years. But I gotta say, between the AI and RT features, and the promise of 2089 Ti level performance, I'm reeeeally tempted by the 3070. If AMD can't bring the same performance and feature set at that price point, I may just switch from red to green.