I forgot Glofo... They could be an extra billion a year if not used... Can console chips even be produced here...
- Status
- margins were at 39% in Q4 (ex WSA impact) in a tough PC environment with excess inventory across the board, and with AMD selling very little new product - they definitely have upside from that figure. Intel also needs to raise prices...that can only help AMD.
- their operating sg&a targets are $450MM....since Lisa Su is GM, I'd have confidence.
- so the break-even point could be as low as $1B
- Kabini vs Brazos could generate $50MM per quarter addl gross profits I'm guessing as a minimum, Plus Console. There could be another $100MM or more in total.
just an opinion, but to me any console chips made at Gloflo, even if not ordered by AMD, should be deducted from the WSA take or pay figure for each year.
eg. IBM console chips ordered directly from GloFlo should count towards that. Because that is business generated by AMD for Gloflo...
If it isn't then AMD are terrible negotiators and it's one more indication that AMD is getting #%^*£¥ by GloFlo.
eg. IBM console chips ordered directly from GloFlo should count towards that. Because that is business generated by AMD for Gloflo...
If it isn't then AMD are terrible negotiators and it's one more indication that AMD is getting #%^*£¥ by GloFlo.
Break-even at 1B(revenue?) would mean 50% gross margins, which would be especially good for them.
Their interest per quarter is around 40-50M for debt, which I accounted for.
Hopefully Jaguar and consoles pull in some cash.
As I remember it, the last time Rory and Kumar talked "break-even point" the value was $1.3B/qtr and they weren't expecting to have their cost structure to the point of supporting a $1.3B break-even value until the end of 3Q 2013.
How could they possibly reduce their break-even target another 24%, to $1B, and on an even more aggressive time schedule than they had planned for the $1.3B break-even point?
They would have to layoff probably 30-40% of their staff to hit such a break-even point.
Pablo,
You are not accounting for debt interest and non-operational expenses.
Using Kumar, numbers, AMD needs 520 million to break even. 70 millions for debt and non-opex is fair IMO.
AtenRa
Lifer
- Feb 2, 2009
- 14,003
- 3,362
- 136
20% will be the embedded products at the end of 2013, its not only the consoles.
Edit: actually i dont know if they count the consoles in to the Embedded products.
Edit 2 : AMD Embedded Products
Edit: actually i dont know if they count the consoles in to the Embedded products.
Edit 2 : AMD Embedded Products
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Wrong wrong wrong...
Here are some better numbers:
Debt payment is $45 millions per quarter
=====================
(1) Computing Solutions Revenue = $3.6 billions (0r $900 millions per quarter estimate)
(2) Graphics Revenue = $1.4 billions ( or $350 millions per quarter estimate)
(3) Embedded Revenue = $.9 billions
=====================
Total Revenue for 2013 = $5.9 billions or $5.5 billions (estimate)
Actual Revenue for 2012 = $5.42 billions
AMD will reduce its expenses from $610 millions to $450 millions per quarter by the end of September 2013. AMD should be cash flow positive in Q3 2013 and Q4 2013.
Q3 2012, Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 are not representative quarters for AMD.
A representative quarter or a normal quarter for AMD is between $1.3 billions to $1.5 billions in revenues.
My guess is that AMD's 2013 revenue will be between $5.5 billions and $5.9 billions.
AMD can easily consume $1.15 billions in wafer in 2013. They have to build inventory for Kaveri APUs and GF will also manufacture some discrete GPUs. AMD also need a lot on inventory for the Richland APUs which are shipping to OEMs now.
I just don't see AMD bankruptcy in 2013. If my account does not get deleted by saying good things about AMD, then I might sitll post in 2014 something about AMD Steamroller or Sony's PS4 which will be shipping after the Xbox 720 or the Xbox Next.
The biggest unknown is the performance of GF's 28nm bulk/HKMG node. I don't trust Globalfoundaries at all. GF has put AMD thru H*ll.
For 2013, AMD will lose a little money or make a very little money. But Keeping expenses within $1.3 billions will keep AMD Ticking for many many more years.
Why do you keep posting like this?Frankly it only shows you in an unflattering light, for your own sake I hope you lose the attitude because it is undermining the value of your message.
If you only came here to flamebait and stir the pot until you get banned then I can assure you that will eventually happen, but it won't have anything to do with your fanboy persuasions. We toss plenty of nvidia and Intel fanboys around here that cannot figure out how to behave in polite society.
Don't be like them, be better than them.
========================
If you only came here to flamebait and stir the pot until you get banned then I can assure you that will eventually happen, but it won't have anything to do with your fanboy persuasions. We toss plenty of nvidia and Intel fanboys around here that cannot figure out how to behave in polite society.
Don't be like them, be better than them.
I used to read anandtech.com a lot about 4 to 5 years ago and anandtech.com was the best website on the internet before 4 years ago. Today there is a lot of AMD bashing going on on this site now.
As an example yahoo.com was also very popular. Now google.com is #1.
Anyway, those are my opinions.
If you allow the behavior of others to define who you are and how you carry yourself then you will be indistinguishable from the very people you find to be so disagreeable.
Be yourself, set the example.
Now I don't visit the "Video Cards & Graphics" section on this site.
I'm for the choice. People can buy AMD or Intel or NVidia or whatever else they like. It is their choice.
This site must keep Integrity & Trust otherwise it will be gone like AOL. I know techreport.com is already getting popular.
IDC, I say what I see. I resist herd mentality.
CHADBOGA
Platinum Member
- Mar 31, 2009
- 2,135
- 833
- 136
You need to understand that if a product is underwhelming, and crazies try and talk it up as the best thing since sliced bread, that people will counter and correct such silliness.
Right you are. They'd break-even on an EBITDA aka operating basis which is what I was talking about.
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Most certainly not. But I'm looking at it from a distance, someone more knowledgeable could do their due diligence, find it acceptable and negotiate a favorable contract.
I'd be very interested to know what 3rd parties are paying Global Foundries - a heck of a lot less than AMD is paying I'll bet.
Please don't fear monger. I said operating break even ie before interest.
$1B x 45% margins (~historical) = $450MM = AMD operating cost target to be reached by Q3.
Why they said $1.3B we still don't know...if you recall Kumar couldn't explain it and Rory was silent...
Do you know what is "embedded" exactly? That is a very nebulous term and for AMD to keep repeating this mantra without providing any granularity or examples (customer, product, geography, anything) is a concern (though not surprising).
Nice web page.
You either don't know what that phrase means or you don't understand my post.
I take Rory and Kumar at their word. If you don't take them at their word then don't blame me for their credibility gap with you.
Their numbers stand until such time that they choose to take the time to clarify or change them. Isn't that how it works? They don't have the luxury of knowingly misleading the public on materially significant accounting numbers such as the break-even cost and so forth.
You are off-topic in this thread. I'm also off-topic.
Mr. Chadboga, you are misguided. Please read the following:
"In NAS Parrallel Benchmarks V3.3 (Test/Class SP.A), the AMD FX-8350 beats the Intel core i7-3770K."
http://openbenchmarking.org/embed.php?i=1210227-RA-AMDFX835085&sha=c4fb368&p=2
"For the Lower-Upper Gauss-Seidel solver within NPB, the FX-8350 beats the Intel Core i7 3770K."
http://openbenchmarking.org/embed.php?i=1210227-RA-AMDFX835085&sha=858b421&p=2
"AMD CPUs tend to traditionally do very well with the popular John The Ripper benchmark. With the Blowfish test case in JTR, the FX-8350 was significantly ahead of the i7-3770K."
http://openbenchmarking.org/embed.php?i=1210227-RA-AMDFX835085&sha=0c966a4&p=2
"The AMD FX-8350 also wins in H.264 Video Encoding against the intel Core i7-3770K."
http://openbenchmarking.org/embed.php?i=1210227-RA-AMDFX835085&sha=6dc05fb&p=2
"GraphicsMagick v1.3.16: Operation: Sharpen:"
http://openbenchmarking.org/embed.php?i=1210227-RA-AMDFX835085&sha=5a87e9e&p=2
"Timed Linux Kernel Compilation v3.1:"
http://openbenchmarking.org/embed.php?i=1210227-RA-AMDFX835085&sha=96eefe6&p=2
The AMD FX-8350 built the Linux Kernel v3.1 in 82.27 seconds while the Intel core i7-3770K took 86.67 seconds. In deed, a great victory for the AMD FX-8350 against the Intel core i7-3770K."
"C-Ray v1.1:
http://openbenchmarking.org/embed.php?i=1210227-RA-AMDFX835085&sha=293f200&p=2
The AMD FX-8350 easily wins against the Intel core i7-3770K for the popular open-source multi-threaded C-Ray ray-tracing benchmark."
All these benchmarks are using the open source compiler gcc. So no compiler tricks are used.
=================================
Prices from Newegg.com:
AMD FX-8350 for $199.99:
Customer Reviews of FX-8350
All Reviews (310)
86% (268)
7% (21)
2% (6)
2% (6)
3% (9)
==============================================
The Intel core i7-3770K for $329.99.
Customer Reviews of Core i7-3770K
All Reviews (520)
88% (458)
7% (38)
2% (10)
1% (4)
2% (10)
Conclusion: The AMD FX-8350 performs within 90% to 95% of the best consumer level, 3rd genaration core i7-3770K processor. Also this AMD CPU costs $130 dollars less than the Intel core i7-3770K.
Also watch the following video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8_dh4b0jL8
Well, that is a nice batch of SPAM by a troll account.
So you are "for choice" and fearing on an impending ban by the moderators on Anandtech (apparently because,in your mind only, the mighty Intel is so afraid of your copy and pasted SPAM that they bribed a moderator?). However, all you are doing is proving that the FX-8350 is 1% better in 1% of applications, and is decimated in the other 99% of applications. Okay. You are free to buy hundreds of FX-8350s as far as I am concerned. You could use a few dozen of them to heat your house if you wanted to. We just hate reading the sludge that AMD fanboys smear on these forums.
Now, you will post a batch of benchmarks that consists entirely of those 1% of applications in order to "prove" that they are more than 1% of applications a user will actually run. Yes, if you run a batch of benchmarks consisting on only 2nd pass h.264 encoding, and 75 different 3D rendering programs, then the 3770k will barely lose (until you overclock both processors since the 3770k has substantially more headroom).
Here is a solution. It has worked really well for another member here. Make a blog that reviews games using your AMD processor, and an Intel processor (it doesn't have to be a good Intel processor, it could be a Pentium 4 for all AMD fanboys care). Run every benchmark with 8x supersampled AA on a used Radeon 5450 so it will be GPU bound, then use the blog to "prove" that AMD processors are equal to Intel processors since both processors will run the all games at about 0.5 frames per second.
($1.3 Billion in Revenues x 40% gross margin ) - $450 operating expenses - $75~ million interest.
Therefore, we can assume AMD is projecting a 40% gross margin. Woo hoo.
So you are "for choice" and fearing on an impending ban by the moderators on Anandtech (apparently because,in your mind only, the mighty Intel is so afraid of your copy and pasted SPAM that they bribed a moderator?). However, all you are doing is proving that the FX-8350 is 1% better in 1% of applications, and is decimated in the other 99% of applications. Okay. You are free to buy hundreds of FX-8350s as far as I am concerned. You could use a few dozen of them to heat your house if you wanted to. We just hate reading the sludge that AMD fanboys smear on these forums.
Now, you will post a batch of benchmarks that consists entirely of those 1% of applications in order to "prove" that they are more than 1% of applications a user will actually run. Yes, if you run a batch of benchmarks consisting on only 2nd pass h.264 encoding, and 75 different 3D rendering programs, then the 3770k will barely lose (until you overclock both processors since the 3770k has substantially more headroom).
Here is a solution. It has worked really well for another member here. Make a blog that reviews games using your AMD processor, and an Intel processor (it doesn't have to be a good Intel processor, it could be a Pentium 4 for all AMD fanboys care). Run every benchmark with 8x supersampled AA on a used Radeon 5450 so it will be GPU bound, then use the blog to "prove" that AMD processors are equal to Intel processors since both processors will run the all games at about 0.5 frames per second.
The math isn't exactly difficult to figure out.
($1.3 Billion in Revenues x 40% gross margin ) - $450 operating expenses - $75~ million interest.
Therefore, we can assume AMD is projecting a 40% gross margin. Woo hoo.
I think you need to read before replying to a post.
He was talking about "AMD's underwhelming products".
The AMD FX-8350 is an AMD product. I provided the links to prove that the AMD FX-8350 performs very well against the best Intel consumer level product.
The Ivy bridge is a 3rd gen. core product from a company that has 8 to 9 times more resources. I hope that is not difficult for you to understand.
You also attacked my first post by posting "so brave", didn't you?
So you are an AMD basher and attacking all pro-AMD posters.
If you don't believe me, then try to read your past posts.
Anandtech.com is loaded with AMD attackers. Some of them belong to NVidia Focus Group. They are everywhere. One of the famous one is "Rollo". He has been banned from many sites.
I was talking these things to IDC, the moderator. You prove my point.
Let us see how the moderator sees this post.
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