AMD Q4 results

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Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,885
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I guess that Mubadala would put their hands on it completely
if they were sure 100% that the US gov wouldnt block the move due
to so called strategic interests...
 
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Ferzerp

Diamond Member
Oct 12, 1999
6,438
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dbcoopernz said:
I assume that the US government would block the sale of AMD to a Chinese company?
Click to expand...


Likely, yes.

(The people who are talking about processors being sold to China really don't have any clue of reality, and think that is the same as the company being owned by China.)
 
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SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
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Ferzerp said:
Likely, yes.

(The people who are talking about processors being sold to China really don't have any clue of reality, and think that is the same as the company being owned by China.)
Click to expand...

Pretty simple mistake to make considering the poster didn't quote. Plenty of people out there think that we are banned from selling tech to China.

There is also zero chance of the US government intervening in a sale of AMD to China btw (which has no chance of happening to start with), so you're the one lacking any clue of reality.
 
F

Ferzerp

Diamond Member
Oct 12, 1999
6,438
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106
Idontcare said:
Mamco Manufacturing was prevented from being bought by a Chinese company.

I wouldn't call that zero chance.
Click to expand...

Other than buying lots of cheap goods, the US is pretty much hostile to China (and vice versa), especially when it comes to IP (and especially when it comes to one of two suppliers for x86 which runs so much in the US). When you can't trust the CPU to not install malware, you can't buy the CPU.

My hypothetical situation is exactly the thing that the US govt assumes that would happen were AMD to be owned by a Chinese company.
 
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SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
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Ferzerp said:
Other than buying lots of cheap goods, the US is pretty much hostile to China (and vice versa), especially when it comes to IP (and especially when it comes to one of two suppliers for x86 which runs so much in the US). When you can't trust the CPU to not install malware, you can't buy the CPU.

My hypothetical situation is exactly the thing that the US govt assumes that would happen were AMD to be owned by a Chinese company.
Click to expand...

http://www.businessweek.com/article...-and-batteries-in-latest-u-dot-s-dot-shopping

That was just last month. You think AMD would even register?
 
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sontin

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2011
3,273
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Eyefinity said:
So, some 40 million consoles will be sold this year with AMD hardware. Sadly they only have the graphics of the Wii U, however even at 10 bucks (which seems ridiculously low for the main part of the console), that'll be ~$200 million in royalties on the Wii U alone if the U can only equal Wii sales in it's first full year. It's already ahead at the same stage, just incase you were wondering.
Click to expand...

:|

ARM gets a few pennies for their design license yet AMD should get $10 from Nintendo for an outdated design?!

That is some $350 million taken care of at rock bottom prices, unless AMD is making less than $10 per Wii U and $20 per Xbox Next/PS4 which doesn't seem very likely to me.

Still a long way short of a $billion? Sure but what about the 13 million xbox 360's and 10 million Wii's that sold last year? That is probably worth some $200 million to AMD. People are still buying these even though the Wii U is released, and millions will continue to be sold.

So by my reckoning, at the very least AMD is set to make $500 million in console revenue in 2013, based on a measly $10 per Wii U and $20 per Next/PS4. And that's if China doesn't open up - if it does the market instantly doubles overnight.
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Wow, you pulling the numbers out of the air, right? :awe:
AMD's graphics business made $1,4 billion this year. They shipping over 10 millions gpus every quarter. Their ASP is around $35.
And you really claming that they will get $10 for a license and $20 for an APU? :hmm:
 
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krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
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300 or 800M doesnt matter in my book. The important is, on the long run, will AMD be able to get profit on this from the more strategic advantage of this position and how?

That remains to be seen, but clearly some is thinking there is a possibility to do so, because AMD is right now burning money in a rate they can not sustain, and still the stock holds value. And onless one thinks dense servermarket can save AMD, the console deal must play a serious part of the minor chance of changing this sinking ship.
 
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mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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sontin said:
AMD's graphics business made $1,4 billion this year. They shipping over 10 millions gpus every quarter. Their ASP is around $35.
And you really claming that they will get $10 for a license and $20 for an APU? :hmm:
Click to expand...

To put things in perspective, in a deal loathed by Sony as too expensive, Nvidia made less than 100 million per year, and Xbox 360 and PS3 were consoles aimed at pushing the limits on costs and performance. With both Microsoft and Sony focusing on reducing costs, what's the chance of AMD making 1 billion, or even half a billion per year?
 
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SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
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As opposed to your laughable $200 million total? Please explain to me where the other $800 million+ AMD expects by the end of the year is coming from. Is there some new embedded business worth $800 million bucks that just suddenly appeared?

Try 7-8 million graphics cards shipped by AMD every quarter btw. That's barely a $billion revenues. Where did the other $300-$400 million come from in 2012?
 
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nemesismk2

Diamond Member
Sep 29, 2001
4,810
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www.ultimatehardware.net
krumme said:
That remains to be seen, but clearly some is thinking there is a possibility to do so, because AMD is right now burning money in a rate they can not sustain, and still the stock holds value. And onless one thinks dense servermarket can save AMD, the console deal must play a serious part of the minor chance of changing this sinking ship.
Click to expand...

I for one hope AMD can turn things around as they have said :)
 
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Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,885
4,873
136
sontin said:
AMD's graphics business made $1,4 billion this year. They shipping over 10 millions gpus every quarter. Their ASP is around $35.
Click to expand...
Eyefinity said:
Try 7-8 million graphics cards shipped by AMD every quarter btw. That's barely a $billion revenues. Where did the other $300-$400 million come from in 2012?
Click to expand...
140a.jpg
 
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A

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,885
4,873
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ASP is about 58$ according to the figures above , far from the random
35$ estimation , that s just 65% more....

Likely that a CPU + GPU combo cant be cheaper.
 
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SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
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I have my doubts that ASP is as high as $35 even. Certainly in notebooks AMD is practically giving away their discrete dual graphics.
 
nerp

nerp

Diamond Member
Dec 31, 2005
9,865
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Hope AMD sticks around. They build great value chips and find ways to innovate all the time. I love being able to build a solid system for cheap and loving the GPU on the CPU for MCE and small machines. Maybe they just need to hire Justin Bieber or something to do some promotional work. :)
 
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sontin

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2011
3,273
149
106
Marketshare for AMD was ~36% in Q3 2012 for discrete gpus.
nVidia shipped 22 Millions which puts AMD around 12 - 14 Millions chips.
In Q3 their graphics business (with console license) made $342M.

Because we don't know how huge the impact of the console license is we can only guess the ASP. With the console business it's something between $24-$30.
 
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mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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Eyefinity said:
As opposed to your laughable $200 million total? Please explain to me where the other $800 million+ AMD expects by the end of the year is coming from. Is there some new embedded business worth $800 million bucks that just suddenly appeared?
Click to expand...

From here:

http://www.amd.com/us/products/embedded/applications/Pages/applications.aspx

http://wwwd.amd.com/catalog/salescat.nsf/shop?openform

200 million/quarter in royalties would catapult AMD gross margins by 6%, an increase not found in any of AMD forecasts.

Also if they are going to sell 4.4 billion this year, 1.4 billion is in GPUs and 1 billion is embedded, the CPU business would be left with only 2 billion in sales, a whopping 25% reduction from 2012 and 50% from 2011. That would also put them on track for another heavy take-or-pay payment to GLF....

But those small bits don't matter as *you* know better, right?
 
A

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,885
4,873
136
sontin said:
Because we don't know how huge the impact of the console license is we can only guess the ASP. With the console business it's something between $24-$30.
Click to expand...

So the bigger the chips the cheaper.?..

24-30$ wouldnt even cover RD and manufacturing.
 
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SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
2,346
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Are Nvidia, Sony and MS even customers of TSMC btw? Who says this is only a licence and AMD isn't actually selling the chips? That would help to get the the $1 billion figure more easily.
 
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SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
2,346
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mrmt said:
From here:

http://www.amd.com/us/products/embedded/applications/Pages/applications.aspx

http://wwwd.amd.com/catalog/salescat.nsf/shop?openform

200 million/quarter in royalties would catapult AMD gross margins by 6%, an increase not found in any of AMD forecasts.

Also if they are going to sell 4.4 billion this year, 1.4 billion is in GPUs and 1 billion is embedded, the CPU business would be left with only 2 billion in sales, a whopping 25% reduction from 2012 and 50% from 2011. That would also put them on track for another heavy take-or-pay payment to GLF....

But those small bits don't matter as *you* know better, right?
Click to expand...

You're making some wrong assumptions from the start, which is why your numbers are way off. The GPU business *includes* embedded ie consoles so overall there shouldn't expect to be more than $2 billion made in total gpu. It is also quite clear that they will be producing much less discrete gpu's (where are all those Kabini's coming from? AMD's TSMC allocation of course) as well, so overall the gpu segment shouldn't really expect to reach $2 billion even - possibly $1.6-$1.8 billion is a more realistic figure.
 
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Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,885
4,873
136
TSMC is Nvidia supplier.

As for licensing , where this idea did come from if not from AMD
usual bashers that are prompt to find whatever help them downplay
this firms priducts.

Likely that they will sell the chip according to an arrangement
that stipulate lowered prices as times goes by.
 
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