Originally posted by: Idontcare
Originally posted by: Nemesis 1
I can see were AMD NEEDS all the things that was discussed at Hot Chips. I agree that AMD needs to do these things .
But IF amd tries to do all this on BD on 32NM High K/ metal gates /Gates first tech. It will be a disaster. I won't even say I think AND will fail . I will just say it . They will fail .
1) FMA4 - Maybe well see.
2) . 32nm HighK /Metal gates / Gate First - Likely .
3). SMT - Possiable
4) Clock speed with all of the above and power efficiency on a First time arch. Probabilies are very low for GOOD all round performance.
5) Fusion fits in above somewhere.
IF AMD tries all this on one chip on new process it will fail.
Nemesis I think you might be misunderstanding the
reasoning behind why folks like to make quips about "new architecture + new process tech = too risky".
If the node delivers its spice model specs then the only reason a new chip design would fail is if the chip design fails, in which case that would have been the outcome whether it was implemented on a newer process or an older process.
If a node doesn't deliver its spice model specs then the chip can fail, but so too will any other chip (including a prior existing architecture design) which is attempted to be manufactured on that node.
The "new tech and new architecture is a bad idea" rule of thumb is born from risk management at the business strategy level...and the risks that are being managed are ones of
time to market and
gross margin maintenance not "does the chip work? does the node work?" type risk mitigation.
New designs carry with them an extra burden of verification and validation above and beyond that posed by shrinking a pre-existing architecture.
Thus the way to manage the risk of missing time-to-market opportunity for extracting entitlement gross margins from your newly released process technology is to plan to produce an existing architecture on the new node in parallel to producing a new architecture (which will take an extra 6-9 months minimum for the added verification and validation work).
If any one of those items you list above are not robustly implemented then the chip will have failed at any node (be it 45nm, 32nm, 22nm...bad design is bad design) or any chip design will have failed at that given node (be it BD or PhIII...bad xtors are bad xtors).
Doing old design + new tech doesn't change the risk of the new design having problems, nor does it change the risk of the new node having problems. But it does reduce the risk of failing to meet time to market and gross margin (yields, etc) targets for that first year that a new node is in manufacturing.