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Discussion AMD Cezanne/Zen 3 APU Speculation and Discussion

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Insert_Nickname

Diamond Member
May 6, 2012
4,067
652
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There is a severe shortage of APUs worldwide in the DIY market, there is just no way that AMD can produce enoght of them.
The 3200G comes in stock here often (~14 days between), but you need to be quick to get one. They're quickly sold out. Athlons are available semi-regularly, but the 3000G is way overpriced.

3400G has been MIA for the past 6 months.

I do hope they have built up a large stockpile for launch. I rather fancy getting a 5700G, if priced reasonably.
 
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Asterox

Senior member
May 15, 2012
531
772
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There is a severe shortage of APUs worldwide in the DIY market, there is just no way that AMD can produce enoght of them.

Also, the pricing changed a lot since Renoir, AMD had $99 3200G and $150 3400G by the time Renoir came out in OEMs, and we knew that even the entry-level 4350G was more expensive than the 3400G, all reviews would have been negative if Renoir ever went to DIY with those prices.

Now... things have changed, they can price the 5300G at $180 and no one would say a thing.
It all depends on the location where you live.For example, in Croatia at retail Ryzen 5 4650G is available from January 2021 to present day.There were several days of waiting for a new shipment, the said this model was available most of the time.You can buy it today, and the price is still very good 197euro.


 

eek2121

Senior member
Aug 2, 2005
990
1,071
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There is a severe shortage of APUs worldwide in the DIY market, there is just no way that AMD can produce enoght of them.

Also, the pricing changed a lot since Renoir, AMD had $99 3200G and $150 3400G by the time Renoir came out in OEMs, and we knew that even the entry-level 4350G was more expensive than the 3400G, all reviews would have been negative if Renoir ever went to DIY with those prices.

Now... things have changed, they can price the 5300G at $180 and no one would say a thing.
The issue is that as we go up in density, costs go up. The 3200g was a quad core on an inexpensive process. It is a 12nm chip that is 210mm2 in size. Cezanne is only 20% smaller, and costs more per mm2 to make. (sorry if wording is poor, on mobile since I am traveling).

IMO AMD should keep budget (low end) Ryzen APUs on the trailing node. 7nm chips in 2025 will cost as half as much as they do today.
 

LightningZ71

Senior member
Mar 10, 2017
764
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AMD's reasoning for not producing lower mid market chips is cow manure for a very specific reason: they could yield almost TWICE as many quad core, VEGA 4, APUs as they currently yield with Lucienne on the same wafer. A single CCX, quad core, Zen2 based, VEGA 4 based processor with a largely similar uncore would be roughly 60% the size of the current Lucienne die. Cutting down the die size by that amount allows more wasted space along the edge of the wafer to be used, and, with the current maturity of the process, there should be an extremely small defect rate as well. It's not a major exaggeration to speculate that they could yield almost twice as many die per wafer with such a product.

The only thing that makes their reasoning work is if they just can't package and validate any more processor packages than they currently can.

Right now, AMD isn't competitive on the bottom end. The dual core and quad core Ice and Tiger lake i3 and i5 processor equipped laptops being marketed in the same price bracket as the 3200u "family" of minutely different variations of the same processor are arguably better at every price point. The dual core products are faster in nearly every metric for Intel. The G1 ice lake gpu is marginally faster than Vega3. The 48eu Xe based gpu in Tiger Lake is notably faster than Vega3, and when not hobbled by single channel implementations, can often catch Vega 8 on the 3500u. The Quad core tiger lake i3 is much faster in MP scenarios than any of the 3200s.

The only reason AMD is moving what they are moving is because the mobile market has stayed red hot and is gobbling up everything thrown at it right now.
 

Shivansps

Diamond Member
Sep 11, 2013
3,254
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IMO AMD should keep budget (low end) Ryzen APUs on the trailing node. 7nm chips in 2025 will cost as half as much as they do today.
Cezanne and Raven2 are the budget APUs and will last for at least 4-5 years. AM4 will be the budget socket for a long time.

They will eventually replace Raven2 for a 7nm Zen2 w/RDNA2, they could go for a 12nm option first, maybe a half Picasso with a DDR5/LPDDR5 controller.
 

scineram

Member
Nov 1, 2020
143
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76
Nor will they ever intentionally be. AMD is targeting the performance market. They would be perfectly happy leaving Intel with low margin budget chips.
As long as they are remotely supply constrained they should not make sacrifices for low end. While Navi21 and Navi22 are way above msrp put wafers toward those.
 

lobz

Golden Member
Feb 10, 2017
1,663
2,142
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AMD's reasoning for not producing lower mid market chips is cow manure for a very specific reason: they could yield almost TWICE as many quad core, VEGA 4, APUs as they currently yield with Lucienne on the same wafer.
That's not really a convincing argument when you're already close to as-perfect-as-it-can-practically-get yields with your very lucrative chips.
 
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LightningZ71

Senior member
Mar 10, 2017
764
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I conceed that they probably make more money by continuing to sell into the more lucrative higher end markets. But don't blow smoke up our collective rear ends and say anything other than, "we are trying to maximize our profits by only making higher end chips on lead nodes. We continue to make lower end chips on trailing nodes because they require zero investment from us, even if they are outclassed by products from our competition at every price point below mid market."
 

moinmoin

Platinum Member
Jun 1, 2017
2,507
3,177
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But don't blow smoke up our collective rear ends and say anything other than, "we are trying to maximize our profits by only making higher end chips on lead nodes. We continue to make lower end chips on trailing nodes because they require zero investment from us, even if they are outclassed by products from our competition at every price point below mid market."
They won't say anything that's factually wrong even if you want them to. :laughing:

We already know AMD's priority essentially is:
high end chips for ODM/OEM > high end chips for DIY > low end chips for ODM/OEM > low end chips for DIY
Dali is the current lowest end Zen chip available. I'm sure it'll be updated to some Zen 2/N7 low end chip in due time, by 2023 or so.
 
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Zepp

Member
May 18, 2019
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Dali is the current lowest end Zen chip available. I'm sure it'll be updated to some Zen 2/N7 low end chip in due time, by 2023 or so.
I wonder if the Dali replacement will continue as a dual core die or if they'll up the core count going forward. I think they should bring back the tri-core :cool:
 

scannall

Golden Member
Jan 1, 2012
1,783
1,240
136
The only thing that makes their reasoning work is if they just can't package and validate any more processor packages than they currently can.
It's not a die problem, it's a substrate problem. And an assembly problem. They are addressing the substrate problem that everyone now including Intel is having, but that won't come on-line until later this year. COVID has hit the assembly part as well. A cheap 4 core tiny die takes the same sized substrate as a 5950X. I would expect as more substrate becomes available in a few months, and the labor shortages ease you will see them with more low end products.

CPU's are a lot more than a bit of silicon. Arguably the most complex things humans have ever made. It doesn't take much of a bump in any of several industries to dump the supply chain into a ditch.
 
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Panino Manino

Senior member
Jan 28, 2017
416
504
136
And I'm sure you know more than the best people at AMD.
I don't, that's why I ask.
From what I understood part of the "problem" are the notebook makers, but I don't understand. Being more "efficient" shouldn't allow for the APUs to keep a higher clock at all times? It also can change from a lower to high state very fast, the OS is aware that it's capable of that, so why?
 

Asterox

Senior member
May 15, 2012
531
772
136
Remember "the competition can't compete". :tearsofjoy:
What world is this? I didn't grow up knowing this AMD, I can't believe that AMD will put these things on the market ahead of Intel.
On average 1080p/15% more performance just from 3D V-CACHE.

Hm the prototype is Zen 3 with 3D-V-CACHE, so can we expect that Zen 3+ in AM5 Socket use 3D V-CACHE?Hm Zen3+ with 3D V-CACHE in AM4 socket?

2021-06-01_044653.jpg
 
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Panino Manino

Senior member
Jan 28, 2017
416
504
136
Instead of trying to move all costumers to new 5nm chips AMD can just keep buying 7nm wafers and slap this cache on the chips as an option for those that want to stay longer on AM4.
 

HurleyBird

Platinum Member
Apr 22, 2003
2,297
723
136
Instead of trying to move all costumers to new 5nm chips AMD can just keep buying 7nm wafers and slap this cache on the chips as an option for those that want to stay longer on AM4.
AMD will want to keep their 7nm capacity for a long while, and the initial platform costs of DDR-5, combined with ADL-beating performance in the capstone Zen 3 products, pretty much guarantees the demand.
 
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Panino Manino

Senior member
Jan 28, 2017
416
504
136
AMD will want to keep their 7nm capacity for a long while, and the initial platform costs of DDR-5, combined with ADL-beating performance in the capstone Zen 3 products, pretty much guarantees the demand.
Yes, AMD will want to keep the current platform running for a while, the detail is that now the costumers will have a good incentive to keep buying with without feeling left behind.
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
9,339
1,887
136
Ian did make a good point in his followup article (assuming he's correct) - the cache chiplet is another 36 mm2 of expensive 7 nm being used. AMD's not going to be generous on pricing.
 

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