AMD Blows past expectations...

[Viditor]

Q3 results

* Q3 non-GAAP profit 13 cts/shr vs expected loss

* Net revenue of $1.78 bln, well ahead of forecasts

* Shares rise 10 pct after hours

 

[Andrew1990]

I think this is a turning point for AMD. They got cash, they have trust, and they are doing good in the GPU market.

What is really important is they now have enough for some good old R&D they sorely needed. The deneb is a good step in the right direction from the news so far, but it will need plenty of work to compete with the newest gen from Intel.

 

[scruffypup]

Originally posted by: Andrew1990
I think this is a turning point for AMD. They got cash, they have trust, and they are doing good in the GPU market.

What is really important is they now have enough for some good old R&D they sorely needed. The deneb is a good step in the right direction from the news so far, but it will need plenty of work to compete with the newest gen from Intel.

The "turning point" came when they bought ATI, in business terms it takes a while for a merger to show full strength. If AMD had not made that move,.. they would have had no chance to survive,... which is also part of the recent moves of spinning off the fab part of the business,... they cannot go head to head anymore with intel in the fab business, they tried that and intel was always a step ahead, they could not go head to head in the cpu part with just the fab support,... intel was more diverse and could always pull strength from chipset business if needed when AMD did pull ahead in the cpu part of the business,... if not for ATI acquisition and the emphasis on making ATI stronger with the cash infusion to compete with Nvidia,... then AMD would be dead in the water and ATI would still be struggling and at the perennial disadvantage to Nvidia like AMD was to Intel,...

Amd processors will still lag for quite some time,... this is still a company betting and banking on the graphics side to ensure overall health.

 

[Viditor]

Revenue increased 26% in computing products group, and 56% in Graphics group...QonQ

 

[Phynaz]

Funny you didn't post anything about Intel reporting a record third quarter two days ago.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Phynaz
Funny you didn't post anything about Intel reporting a record third quarter two days ago.

Because I don't own or follow Intel's numbers at the moment...what's YOUR excuse?

BTW, my understanding (just chatter from CNBC) is that Intel actually dropped because they were pessinistic going forward.

 

[Phynaz]

Same as what you claim yours to be, I'm not holding any Intel shares at the moment.

That, and I'm not a fanboy.

I would also call AMD's forcast pessimistic, as they are expecting the 4thQ to be in flat to the 3rdQ, which will mean another loss for them. Intel predicted a seasonable rise I believe.

Edit: I also just noticed that AMD has pushed their time frame for break even from 2nd half 2008 out to 2009.

 

[scruffypup]

AMD still posted a loss as well,...

The business side and the chip side from an enthusiast side is completely different as well,... though the chip side and market share can create confidence,... or lack thereof,.

Basically Intel held all the cards at the end of 2006 and forced AMD's hand to make the move it did,... and the moves now,...

The better ATI does on the graphics side,... the more likely AMD can get back at some time down the road into the lead on the desktop chips,.... but don't count on that for a long while,.. it is back to the old days where they have to be the "alternate at a lower cost" and keep humming along

 

[Phynaz]

That's AMD's whole problem on the sales side, they have no pricing power at all.

Intel decides what AMD charges for their chips.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Phynaz
Same as what you claim yours to be, I'm not holding any Intel shares at the moment.

That, and I'm not a fanboy.

I would also call AMD's forcast pessimistic, as they are expecting the 4thQ to be in flat to the 3rdQ, which will mean another loss for them. Intel predicted a seasonable rise I believe.

I would say that you are probably the biggest Intel fanboy I've met to date, but OK...
AMD isn't releasing their 2009 predictions yet because they have an analysts day in a few weeks...
Intel (and again this was just rumour) dropped because their 2009 outlook was less optimistic than analysts wanted.

 

[BLaber]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: Phynaz
Same as what you claim yours to be, I'm not holding any Intel shares at the moment.

That, and I'm not a fanboy.

I would also call AMD's forcast pessimistic, as they are expecting the 4thQ to be in flat to the 3rdQ, which will mean another loss for them. Intel predicted a seasonable rise I believe.

I would say that you are probably the biggest Intel fanboy I've met to date, but OK...

+1

 

[Phynaz]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: Phynaz
Same as what you claim yours to be, I'm not holding any Intel shares at the moment.

That, and I'm not a fanboy.

I would also call AMD's forcast pessimistic, as they are expecting the 4thQ to be in flat to the 3rdQ, which will mean another loss for them. Intel predicted a seasonable rise I believe.

I would say that you are probably the biggest Intel fanboy I've met to date, but OK...
AMD isn't releasing their 2009 predictions yet because they have an analysts day in a few weeks...
Intel (and again this was just rumour) dropped because their 2009 outlook was less optimistic than analysts wanted.

And yet I buy more AMD systems in a week than you will in your entire life.
Huh, go figure.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Phynaz


And yet I buy more AMD systems in a week than you will in your entire life.
Huh, go figure.

Yeah, go figure...
Just last month I bought 2345 Intel-based client systems for a new media developer...does that mean I'm not a fan boy either then?

 

[the kernel]

This includes the sale of the written off ATI division that they sold to Broadcom. Still, the numbers are good and with the Abu Dhabi investment AMD is in no immediate danger of financial collapse.

 

[Rhonda the Sly]

/grumpy

I thought this was going to be about Deneb.

 

[Acanthus]

Originally posted by: Viditor
Q3 results

* Q3 non-GAAP profit 13 cts/shr vs expected loss

* Net revenue of $1.78 bln, well ahead of forecasts

* Shares rise 10 pct after hours

Easy to do when you sell off your fabs.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Acanthus

Originally posted by: Viditor
Q3 results

* Q3 non-GAAP profit 13 cts/shr vs expected loss

* Net revenue of $1.78 bln, well ahead of forecasts

* Shares rise 10 pct after hours

Easy to do when you sell off your fabs.

The Fab deal hasn't happened yet...this is before all that.

 

[jones377]

What is this "Process technology license revenue" ? Is it related to the process equipment sales last quarter? It seems to be the reason for them projecting flat revenue growth in Q4 since it was a one time deal.

 

[zsdersw]

When the expectations are so low that they've already been met, it's not exactly newsworthy that those expectations were finally exceeded.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: jones377
What is this "Process technology license revenue" ? Is it related to the process equipment sales last quarter? It seems to be the reason for them projecting flat revenue growth in Q4 since it was a one time deal.

Operating just from memory (I leave it to others for any corrections), I beleive that the sale to the Russian company of the 130nm lines was in 2 parts. Part one was last quarter for the capital equipment sale (which was a net loss for AMD as it accelerated depreciation).
Part two is this quarter for the licensing fees on 130nm SOI manufacturing...
And I beleive your point on the Q4 prediction is a very good one...(hadn't thought of that, actually)

 

[jones377]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: jones377
What is this "Process technology license revenue" ? Is it related to the process equipment sales last quarter? It seems to be the reason for them projecting flat revenue growth in Q4 since it was a one time deal.

Operating just from memory (I leave it to others for any corrections), I beleive that the sale to the Russian company of the 130nm lines was in 2 parts. Part one was last quarter for the capital equipment sale (which was a net loss for AMD as it accelerated depreciation).
Part two is this quarter for the licensing fees on 130nm SOI manufacturing...
And I beleive your point on the Q4 prediction is a very good one...(hadn't thought of that, actually)

However TheINQ now writes that Q4 will be flat already excluding this one time sale. I'm not sure what to believe. When is the CC scheduled for??

 

[Keysplayr]

Enough with the Fanboy comments from any and all. Discuss the thread topic and not the member who posted it.

Anandtech Moderator - Keysplayr2003

 

[Denithor]

Originally posted by: scruffypup
...it is back to the old days where they have to be the "alternate at a lower cost" and keep humming along

AMD did that for years without problems, I don't see why they cannot just do it again. Instead of focusing on being first with these huge monolithic processors (first "true" dual core, first "true" quad core, etc) they need to work on keeping costs down and being "good enough." I mean, that's basically what they did with the 4xxx generation of GPU from ATi and look how well it's worked out for them.

Intel doesn't worry about being first to have monolithic design, they just slap two or four cores together and call it dual or quad and it works. Then they make the "true" interconnected version later with the next die shrink.

 

[Phynaz]

Originally posted by: jones377
What is this "Process technology license revenue" ? Is it related to the process equipment sales last quarter? It seems to be the reason for them projecting flat revenue growth in Q4 since it was a one time deal.

You are correct. This is the recognition of the money they recieved in prior quarters for selling off the old 200mm fab equipment.

That is why "operating profit" is such a red herring. Always remember the saying "cash is king".

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: jones377

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: jones377
What is this "Process technology license revenue" ? Is it related to the process equipment sales last quarter? It seems to be the reason for them projecting flat revenue growth in Q4 since it was a one time deal.

Operating just from memory (I leave it to others for any corrections), I beleive that the sale to the Russian company of the 130nm lines was in 2 parts. Part one was last quarter for the capital equipment sale (which was a net loss for AMD as it accelerated depreciation).
Part two is this quarter for the licensing fees on 130nm SOI manufacturing...
And I beleive your point on the Q4 prediction is a very good one...(hadn't thought of that, actually)

However TheINQ now writes that Q4 will be flat already excluding this one time sale. I'm not sure what to believe. When is the CC scheduled for??

To answer your question, AMD is being cautious because of global economics...

"Q4 is typically a seasonally strong quarter and CPUs it is typically up about 8, 10%, graphics a little bit less than that. Clearly, we are not planning on losing share in either of our big businesses quarter-to-quarter, rather we are just being cautious based on the macroeconomic environment"

CC Transcript