Discussion AMD 2022-Q4 Financial Results

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Vattila

Senior member
Oct 22, 2004
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After Intel released their dire earnings and forecast this week, AMD again passed Intel in market capitalisation (currently $122B vs $116B). It will be interesting to see if AMD can retain their higher valuation this time around, which very much depends on their own financial results in the current market turmoil. AMD will report quarterly earnings after market close on Tuesday 2023-01-31.

AMD has forcasted revenue to hit $5.50B ± 0.30B. Zacks Estimates on average expects $5.51B, with $0.66 EPS, with a revenue forecast for next quarter slightly up at $5.57B, presumably based on AMD's competitive position and strong growth in the data centre segment, in particular, outweighing the weakness in the client segments.

Do you think AMD will miss, hit or beat their revenue target? Will they forecast revenue up, flat or down for the current quarter?

PS. While we all wait for AMD's results, here is a nice video by CNBC on AMD's history and comeback:

 
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Vattila

Senior member
Oct 22, 2004
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I'm pretty pleased with the report — I was spot on with my revenue estimate for Q4, but I hoped Q1 would be flat. The outlook is slightly below that, but not too bad, considering the market turmoil and competitive environment.

Here is my business segment slide with bars for at-a-glance overview. Embedded is providing most of the operating income:

AMD 2022-Q4 Segment Results (1024x694).png

OneDrive link
 
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Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,182
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I'm pretty pleased with the report — I was spot on with my revenue estimate for Q4, but I hoped Q1 would be flat. The outlook is slightly below that, but not too bad, considering the market turmoil and competitive environment.

Here is my business segment slide with bars for at-a-glance overview. Embedded is providing most of the operating income:

View attachment 75711

Your bars don’t seem to be accurate, or is it just me?
 

Vattila

Senior member
Oct 22, 2004
799
1,351
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Your bars don’t seem to be accurate, or is it just me?

Looks good to me, if not pixel perfect. I cannot see anything wrong, and the built-in bar function I use in the source spreadsheet seems to update correctly. Enlighten me on what you find inaccurate.
 

Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
25,483
14,434
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The thing is.... Quite a few years ago, I said power usage will help in a large way in determining if a company wants a particular server. For years EPYC has been more power friendly, and from Rome forward, it has been the performance leader. You add performance + perf/watt + lower power = A winning server for years, and this has not changed, and will not change for the foreseeable future. This is why AMD's server market share has steadily increased the last few years, and will continue to do so.
 

trivik12

Senior member
Jan 26, 2006
252
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Another thing like Intel, AMD has not given Annual guidance for 2023 unlike last year.

z1Xd2J.jpg


bawR5o.jpg
 

Karnak

Senior member
Jan 5, 2017
399
767
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Su and even Pat knows how to play the game. I mean ofc you could still give a guidance for the full FY, but that won't do you any favor. It'll hurt you even more cause it's not possible to predict an outcome of more than like the recent quarter for now. And a "false" guidance... well.
 
Nov 8, 2022
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client (dekstop/notebook CPU) is severally down, but semianalysis checked with channels and so did Patrick Moorhead claim in his analysis and it is clear that AMD has less inventory gluts than Intel, and Patrick's analysis is that intel is pushing hard to defend or win market share in this segment while AMD tries to win revenue share in this segment. its a bad game for AMD, but maybe that V3 CPU products will give them a unique position in this segment.

Data center (servers) will be slow for the first half as enterprise servers is already in contraction, and AMD expects cloud to slow down as well, however they expect a strong second half.

(this is not telling us anything about intel/AMD market share, for example if intel sales are down 20% and AMD is down by 5% it means that AMD is taking a bigger share of the server market, but AMD's financial results will still show a decrease in the server segment of business)

I am mostly impressed with AMDs execution on Xilinx integration, I have seen many companies struggle for years to execute on M&A integration, AMDs execution is really impressive, both integration as one company, and integration in products.
 

itsmydamnation

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2011
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I am mostly impressed with AMDs execution on Xilinx integration, I have seen many companies struggle for years to execute on M&A integration, AMDs execution is really impressive, both integration as one company, and integration in products.
It appears from the outside that AMD and Xilinx see each other from a technical perspective as equals. Both keep executing on their own road maps and then add an integration of products together.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,000
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They really need to increase Mobile and OEM client sales. Personally it is unacceptable to only manage 900m in Client segment with this good portfolio.
 
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Vattila

Senior member
Oct 22, 2004
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5B in R&D for 2022 vs 2.8B for 2021

Great, but note that the increase is to a large degree an effect of the Xilinx acquisition.

I am mostly impressed with AMDs execution on Xilinx integration, I have seen many companies struggle for years to execute on M&A integration, AMDs execution is really impressive, both integration as one company, and integration in products.

I was thinking the same. AMD President Victor Peng deserves kudos for execution of the integration and their common roadmaps, as well as setting a great strategy for Xilinx as their CEO since 2018. The prospects of a merger started with talks with AMD CEO Lisa Su already back in 2017, if I remember correctly. So it was long in the making. The realisation of the merger came at a very fortunate time for AMD's turnaround. Without Xilinx, AMD's financial results would have looked much worse now.
 
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Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
10,854
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They really need to increase Mobile and OEM client sales. Personally it is unacceptable to only manage 900m in Client segment with this good portfolio.

Portfolio is not that strong, actually they hugely neglected the 70-150$ APUs price bracket and the dedicated MBs, there s about nothing consistent in this segment set apart the 5600G/5700G wich are already 3 years old and on AM4.

They made a mistake to not release the 620 chipset early as well as not offering RMB as a timely low cost solution in the waiting of Zen 4 based APUs, in the current economic turmoil chasing high margin segment is no more enough to have a sustained revenue, or at least not dwindling by 50%.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
10,854
3,298
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Mobile is neglected as well, they only have RMB and its cut down versions, all available only with DDR5, if an OEM is to use DDR4 he will be relegated to the 5000 series wich are also 3 years old.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,510
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Portfolio is not that strong, actually they hugely neglected the 70-150$ APUs price bracket and the dedicated MBs, there s about nothing consistent in this segment set apart the 5600G/5700G wich are already 3 years old and on AM4.

TSMC is too expensive yet yields too good for something newer. The 5600G is $140 at Newegg, and I can't imagine AMD is happy with that pricing. Maybe we will see a busted IGP Rembrandt at some point.
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
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Portfolio is not that strong, actually they hugely neglected the 70-150$ APUs price bracket and the dedicated MBs, there s about nothing consistent in this segment set apart the 5600G/5700G wich are already 3 years old and on AM4.

They made a mistake to not release the 620 chipset early as well as not offering RMB as a timely low cost solution in the waiting of Zen 4 based APUs, in the current economic turmoil chasing high margin segment is no more enough to have a sustained revenue, or at least not dwindling by 50%.

The way AMD makes APUs means the 5700G is actually more expensive to produce than the 5800X. AMD have shown that a monolithic 8 core is more expensive for them than a chiplet 8 core part and the APU also has extra silicon for the GPU area.

In addition with Zen 4 being DDR5 only the platform is just expensive. new ram, new mobo, new CPU. Now that adoption of DDR5 is increasing and prices are coming down a lower price platform + say a 7500 with reduced L3 cache for $150 can make a lot of sense.

So I think timing on that basis was right. What is the point in giving people a $150 CPU when RAM and Mobo costs make it unviable anyway. Better to wait for the price situation to improve 1st which is what AMD have done.
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
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Mobile is neglected as well, they only have RMB and its cut down versions, all available only with DDR5, if an OEM is to use DDR4 he will be relegated to the 5000 series wich are also 3 years old.

Well now they can use 7x20 for low end, 7x30 for mid and 7x40 for high end. That will keep the OEMS happy even if 7x20 is Zen2 and 7x30 is Zen3 because it starts with a 7 which is > 6 so it looks newer. At least if you know the naming scheme you can see at a glance which version of Zen is being used.
 

trivik12

Senior member
Jan 26, 2006
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Weird that AMD has not release U series chip with Zen 4. That is the biggest market for laptops. Plus they take for ever to hit OEM. Last year we did not see any Rembrandt U series laptops until H2 and even then they were not that widespread. You cannot go to a Costco or a Best Buy and pick up one. For client to turn around AMD needs to prioritize laptops and release latest and greatest across the board.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,582
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They really need to increase Mobile and OEM client sales. Personally it is unacceptable to only manage 900m in Client segment with this good portfolio.

That is a little surprising. Availability of Rembrandt products in the retail market has been poor, giving the impression of pent-up demand and insufficient supply. Of course with the way the market is turning now, I wouldn't expect them to saturate the market with product.
 

scineram

Senior member
Nov 1, 2020
361
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Tons of copium over client, where entire channel is flooded with Alder and Raptor Lake. I was stunned AMD maintained client ASP annually. They made their choice and a very based one. Totally pointless shipping tons more when nobody is buying.
 
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Kocicak

Senior member
Jan 17, 2019
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... client, where entire channel is flooded with Alder and Raptor Lake.
What is this nonsense again!!! You mean that there are some warehouses stuffed to the brim with Intel CPUs, so that AMD simply cannot fit inside anymore? Or WHAT do you mean by this?!