Discussion AMD 2022-Q4 Financial Results

Vattila

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Oct 22, 2004
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After Intel released their dire earnings and forecast this week, AMD again passed Intel in market capitalisation (currently $122B vs $116B). It will be interesting to see if AMD can retain their higher valuation this time around, which very much depends on their own financial results in the current market turmoil. AMD will report quarterly earnings after market close on Tuesday 2023-01-31.

AMD has forcasted revenue to hit $5.50B ± 0.30B. Zacks Estimates on average expects $5.51B, with $0.66 EPS, with a revenue forecast for next quarter slightly up at $5.57B, presumably based on AMD's competitive position and strong growth in the data centre segment, in particular, outweighing the weakness in the client segments.

Do you think AMD will miss, hit or beat their revenue target? Will they forecast revenue up, flat or down for the current quarter?

PS. While we all wait for AMD's results, here is a nice video by CNBC on AMD's history and comeback:

 
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IEC

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Jun 10, 2004
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Unless data center surprises to the upside, I'm expecting down. Outside of Apple which was less affected (luxury goods...) the overall macro trend is down.

Zen 4 sales have picked up but Zen 3 still is the major seller in the DIY space. But DIY/client is down because a ton of demand was already pulled forward in 2020 and 2021. The rising tide of WFH and mining is now reversed and the tide is going out now...

I expect 7900XT sales to be abysmal. Higher end 6000 series cards on sale are the better bang for the buck right now so I feel that the bad pricing was intentional to help clear out 6000 series cards. Regardless it will look horrible YoY because every single card was selling because of GPU mining... and now GPUs are plentifully in stock. Thankfully GPU mining has been pretty much dead since last summer.

Disclosure: I do not own any stock in AMD or have any vested interests in related business. So if they become Intel and abuse their market leader position I'm happy to switch to the underdog.
 

turtile

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Aug 19, 2014
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I think AMD's data center sales will increase over the last quarter and will have higher margins because of Genoa. Intel has more revenue and actually has margins this time while not releasing anything competitive. The client will probably be down because of Intel's dumping of product. Again, demand seems to have been slightly higher but Intel has much lower margins while having more revenue. Xilinx will probably beat.
 
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A///

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I wouldn't call it that. Apple is hybrid in they offer hardware and online services. While most of their rev is devised simply from phone sales, their computer and biz sales are nothing to scoff at. They offer competitive hardware at viable prices vs hp or dell for a lot of orgs. It comes down to the product stack making it a viable choice. With the abandonment of x86, it may be hard for apple to maintain this because with the loss of x86 comes no software unless biz and school vendors program for apple.
 

A///

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AMD has secured sales for Genoa, but I don't think it'll have the high take rate of the last 3-4 years. Even hyperscalers are rethinking their deployments for cost cuttings and riding out already evaluated hardware. A soft landing will be a saving grace.
 
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Hitman928

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Final prediction right before earnings. I think AMD's Q4 results will come in lower than expected, but not as bad as Intel's due to their superiority in the data center and embedded segments. I also expect graphics to be better than the prior quarter, but still not a largely positive segment for them. I think Q1 will also come in a bit light, but again, their data center and embedded segments will buoy them a bit and they won't have the horrific Q1 projection that Intel did. I expect them to still be optimistic for the full year but they may wait to give full year guidance for another quarter.
 

Hitman928

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I underestimated their Q4 performance but nailed the Q1 prediction. This really puts Intel's results into even further bad light. If projections are met, AMD will be at roughly 50% of Intel's revenue for the quarter. I do expect Intel to bounce back somewhat later in the year, but not to their same heights as yesteryear.

For the first quarter of 2023, AMD expects revenue to be approximately $5.3 billion, plus or minus $300 million, a decrease of approximately 10% year-over-year. Year-over-year the Client and Gaming segments are expected to decline, partially offset by Embedded and Data Center segment growth. AMD expects non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 50% in the first quarter of 2023.

 

Markfw

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Well, I was going to post that I thought they would beat it, but got tied up. Anyway, I would like to see more details,. like how servers, desktop, etc... did. I bet servers are doing great.
 

Hitman928

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Well, I was going to post that I thought they would beat it, but got tied up. Anyway, I would like to see more details,. like how servers, desktop, etc... did. I bet servers are doing great.

They'll release more specific numbers soon, but this is what we get for the moment:

Revenue of $5.6 billion increased 16% year-over-year primarily driven by growth across the Embedded and Data Center segments, partially offset by lower Client and Gaming segment revenue.
 

trivik12

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Datacenter has grown which is the foundation of AMD. embedded is bolstered by Xilinx. Minus Xilinx the topline dropped compared to last year. That is reflected in Q1 guidance which is 600m below Q1 2022.

Good news is due to strong product portfolio especially in data center and strong Xilinx portfolio, they are overall ok unlike the Cluster that Intel earnings were.
 

Markfw

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Datacenter has grown which is the foundation of AMD. embedded is bolstered by Xilinx. Minus Xilinx the topline dropped compared to last year. That is reflected in Q1 guidance which is 600m below Q1 2022.

Good news is due to strong product portfolio especially in data center and strong Xilinx portfolio, they are overall ok unlike the Cluster that Intel earnings were.
Exactly what I thought. I love my 2 7763 Milans, now have to save up for 2 9654's.

So, server is trouncing Intel, and both AMD and Intel are struggling in desktop for now. (as expected) And server should continue, now that AMD has fixed their supply problems. I see no Intel products to derail AMDs server dominance in the foreseeable future.
 

turtile

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Aug 19, 2014
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Exactly what I thought. I love my 2 7763 Milans, now have to save up for 2 9654's.

So, server is trouncing Intel, and both AMD and Intel are struggling in desktop for now. (as expected) And server should continue, now that AMD has fixed their supply problems. I see no Intel products to derail AMDs server dominance in the foreseeable future.

I think Bergamo will push AMD sales much higher in the second half of the year into 2024. It sounds like it's 128 cores for cheap for the cloud (which is the best growing sector).