Discussion Ada/'Lovelace'? Next gen Nvidia gaming architecture speculation

[Aapje]

Their highest end cards are effectively Veblen goods, I.e. the higher they are priced, the more desirable they become.

LOL, no. You guys just have the same lack of economic knowledge that Jensen lacks. Sorry for being blunt, but this is truly ridiculous.

 

[Stuka87]

I think people are dreaming if they think it will be $750. I would be willing to bet a cookie that it is listed for $899.

 

[Tup3x]

I'd be shocked if it's less than 1000 € (inc. 24 % ish VAT).

 

[jpiniero]

I think people are dreaming if they think it will be $750. I would be willing to bet a cookie that it is listed for $899.

Like I expect the FE to be $799 but the AIBs will be more than that most likely.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Yeah, we're on another Turing style "tock" generation. Prices are gonna be stupid and sales are gonna be flat.

 

[Saylick]

The difference with cards is technological obsolescence, unlike other durable items. Rinse & repeat every couple yrs. Autos, boats, sport & music equipment, etc, at least have long lifetimes, and then have the chance of becoming classics, these don't.

My point wasn't that graphics cards had to hold value over time, it was simply that their marketing department has done a good job marketing their cards as desirable goods, irrespective of their shelf life. The same is true of iPhones, which are seen as a status symbol even though it clearly is a depreciating asset.

LOL, no. You guys just have the same lack of economic knowledge that Jensen lacks. Sorry for being blunt, but this is truly ridiculous.

Idk what to say besides that this "lack" of economic understanding is what makes Nvidia billions of dollars.

 

[insertcarehere]

I think people are dreaming if they think it will be $750. I would be willing to bet a cookie that it is listed for $899.

This. AMD has basically set their benchmark for 3090ti (raster) performance in 7900XT at $899. A 4070ti under $800 would clearly undercut this, and Nvidia does not have a recent track record of undercutting anyone on pricing.

 

[Aapje]

Idk what to say besides that this "lack" of economic understanding is what makes Nvidia billions of dollars.

They don't make billions because of their genius pricing or logistics, but because their engineers are great & they limit technology to their (new) hardware where possible. They've also been competing with a company that had to severely cut spending, so they've had it very easy for long enough to build/extend a lead (and unlike Intel, they kept executing well despite this poor competition).

Again, it can not be denied that the 4080 16 GB sold poorly, the 12 GB variant had to be unlaunched since it was likely going to do even worse and they completely misjudged the demand due to the miningboom ending.

 

[jpiniero]

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti could cost $799, at least 10% cheaper than cancelled RTX 4080 12GB - VideoCardz.com

NVIDIA reportedly puts a new price on RTX 4070 Ti Multiple sources now claim that the price of RTX 4070 Ti should be at least 10% lower than cancelled RTX 4080 12GB. NVIDIA has allegedly confirmed the price of RTX 4070 Ti, the upcoming upper high-end RTX 40 desktop GPU that is to come out […]

videocardz.com

WTFTech claims that board partners have been told that the official MSRP of the 4070 Ti is indeed $799. As Videocardz points out though, there is no FE so who knows if or how many cards will actually be sold at that.

They also put the release date as next Thursday (Jan 5th)

 

[Aapje]

$200 more than the MSRP of the 3070 Ti. So still way too much.

 

[jpiniero]

$200 more than the MSRP of the 3070 Ti. So still way too much.

You gonna be mad when the 4070 is $699 and the 4060 Ti $599. This is the new normal basically. Probally time for nVidia to come up with a new naming scheme.

I think the best you can hope for is that nVidia goes back to Samsung with Blackwell and the node is magically cheap. Don't count on it.

 

[Thunder 57]

You gonna be mad when the 4070 is $699 and the 4060 Ti $599. This is the new normal basically. Probally time for nVidia to come up with a new naming scheme.

Good luck finding buyers.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/sales-of-desktop-graphics-cards-hit-20-year-low

Granted that only goes through Q3 but I see little reason for that to start trending upwards until prices drop.

 

[jpiniero]

Good luck finding buyers.

People are still buying but understandably most people don't like buying 2 year old products.

 

[Aapje]

You gonna be mad when the 4070 is $699 and the 4060 Ti $599. This is the new normal basically. Probally time for nVidia to come up with a new naming scheme.

Not mad and I doubt that this will be the new normal. As Thunder says, just because the seller wants a certain price, doesn't mean that the buyers have to agree.

 

[jpiniero]

Not mad and I doubt that this will be the new normal. As Thunder says, just because the seller wants a certain price, doesn't mean that the buyers have to agree.

Then nVidia will sell less. Clearly nVidia has prioritized maintaining margins over selling more; and AMD will be bullied into doing the same once Wall Street realizes that they will be unprofitable if they don't.

 

[Aapje]

AMD will be bullied into doing the same once Wall Street realizes that they will be unprofitable if they don't.

I really think that you have a wrong perception of the actual costs of manufacture.

Wall Street is also generally happy with gaining market share, which AMD could do with better pricing.

 

[jpiniero]

I really think that you have a wrong perception of the actual costs of manufacture.

With Moore's Law being dead it's only going to get worse, honestly.

 

[insertcarehere]

I really think that you have a wrong perception of the actual costs of manufacture.

Wall Street is also generally happy with gaining market share, which AMD could do with better pricing.

A 5nm wafer that is used for manufacturing RDNA 3 GPU dies is a 5nm wafer that can't be used for manufacturing Zen 4 CPU dies. Decreasing pricing to improve volume for the former inevitably means reducing supply for the latter - and as it is I doubt RDNA3 GPUs fare well vs Zen 4 in margins to begin with.

But this is getting out of topic for a discussion on Nvidia Ada.

 

[jpiniero]

One thing that is a little different is that it looks like the entire Ada mobile lineup is going to be announced on Thursday.

 

[Aapje]

With Moore's Law being dead it's only going to get worse, honestly.

But it's not that bad yet, so these prices are way higher than the extra cost, especially since the die sizes are quite small.

However, I would start considering upgrading less often and then spending a bit more, as progress seems to be slowing down. I foresee that the companies will increasingly fail to achieve their release schedules and do poor releases, until the gamers that compulsively upgrade each gen wise up. Then companies will probably release products less often, which would keep the prices lower.

@insertcarehere

Zen 4 is selling really poorly, so does it really make a difference? Anyway, I foresee a much better situation for N5 and N6 next year. I wonder how much capacity Nvidia really bought. Once their pr-ebought supply runs out, they should be able to negotiate better prices.

 

[jpiniero]

But it's not that bad yet, so these prices are way higher than the extra cost, especially since the die sizes are quite small.

It's worse. TSMC's wafer prices are going up and not down.

 

[Aapje]

It's worse. TSMC's wafer prices are going up and not down.

Yes, but the dies have shrunk more than the price has gone up...

 

[jpiniero]

Yes, but the dies have shrunk more than the price has gone up...

Yeah no. I wouldn't be surprised if nVidia is paying well over double per wafer compared to SS8.

 

[gdansk]

Yeah no. I wouldn't be surprised if nVidia is paying well over double per wafer compared to SS8.

The 3080 -> 4080 die size almost covers that.
The only die that should be expensive if Moore's Law was as dead as Jensen says would be the AD102. And yet that's the only one that doesn't have a big price hike.
Nvidia pricing is still determined by factors other than wafer costs because their biggest expense has never been manufacturing contracts. But the market spent a year and half proving it would easily tolerate such prices so why wouldn't they try to get more money everywhere?

 

[amenx]

Is there any way to calculate rough cost of the 3080 8nm 628mm dies vs 4-5nm 379mm of 4080?