Discussion Ada/'Lovelace'? Next gen Nvidia gaming architecture speculation

[biostud]

This sounds interesting.
NVIDIA reportedly working on ‘AI-optimized drivers’ with improved performance

View attachment 74207

Faster DLSS?

 

[rommelrommel]

I never saw that as a criteria for all encompassing intelligence. Jensen is smart on the technical side of things, not necessary in all other things under the sun. He has other ppl taking care of the business and marketing side that helped grow Nvidia into the behemoth its become. When he comes up with crap like a 192-bit bus 4080 and reverses course when realizing how dumb it was, maybe should indicate he is not the brightest bulb in sizing up the market or naming, pricing his products.

I don’t think unintelligent is fair, but he likely allows his personal opinion to overrule a lot of adverse advice.

They left an absolute fortune on the table with Ampere by not capitalising on mining prices, and now they’re trying to get the Ampere secondary market prices out of Ada with a combination of inflating names and inflating the prices for those names.

I feel this is either some kind of fundamental misread of the market by Nvidia or an attempt to normalise a much higher margin by breaking consumer expectations.

It’s too bad that AMD doesn’t feel ready to compete, as mentioned their market share is so small. But if they refuse to buy wafers, what can they do? They have to maintain some margin to make money and if they undercut Nvidia heavily they’ll just sell out, can’t make Nvidia compete if you have very little product to sell.

 

[amenx]

I don’t think unintelligent is fair, but he likely allows his personal opinion to overrule a lot of adverse advice.

They left an absolute fortune on the table with Ampere by not capitalising on mining prices, and now they’re trying to get the Ampere secondary market prices out of Ada with a combination of inflating names and inflating the prices for those names.

I feel this is either some kind of fundamental misread of the market by Nvidia or an attempt to normalise a much higher margin by breaking consumer expectations.

It’s too bad that AMD doesn’t feel ready to compete, as mentioned their market share is so small. But if they refuse to buy wafers, what can they do? They have to maintain some margin to make money and if they undercut Nvidia heavily they’ll just sell out, can’t make Nvidia compete if you have very little product to sell.

Yep agree that he may have let his opinion overrule others who may have advised differently. I can understand the pricing of the new products, just not the way he insulted consumers by renaming lower tier products into something above their class.

But re the pricing of the 4080, 4070ti, I think its very much tied in with deliberately bringing in very low initial stocks of inventory to allow for the clearance of any left over Ampere. The 4090 was in a category of its own and did not compete with Ampere, so they ordered much more of that than they did the 4080 (160k units vs 30k 4080s). Quite a compelling clue if you ask me.

The 4080 @ $1200 very much suits that level of inventory, and I suspect the 4070ti will be in a similar situation. If they bring in 1 million 4080s, they will have to significantly reduce its price, and I believe that will indeed happen later on in the year. Same with 4070ti.

 

[Heartbreaker]

they’re trying to get the Ampere secondary market prices out of Ada with a combination of inflating names and inflating the prices for those names.

If the 4070 Ti is performing like a 7900XT, who is really doing name inflation? Even if it was called a 4080 12 GB, it's still comparing NVidia 80, with AMD 900XT. Wasn't the 6900XT competing with the 3090 last generation? Isn't here suppose to be some correspondence AMD 700 with NVidia 70, etc?

IMO a big naming issue NVidia created, is that they are planning too many dies. Giving the 3090 it's own die, then giving the 4080 16GB, it's own die, but then 4080 12GB 4070 Ti it's own die, and it looks like several more under that.

 

[jpiniero]

renaming lower tier products into something above their class.

Isn't that kind of why they did it? They are raising prices, that happens when costs go way up.

Also it seems that people want to arbitrarily think products should be named one way while conveniently ignoring that the x80 product has mostly been the full x104.

 

[rommelrommel]

If the 4070 Ti is performing like a 7900XT, who is really doing name inflation? Even if it was called a 4080 12 GB, it's still comparing NVidia 80, with AMD 900XT. Wasn't the 6900XT competing with the 3090 last generation? Isn't here suppose to be some correspondence AMD 700 with NVidia 70, etc?

IMO a big naming issue NVidia created, is that they are planning too many dies. Giving the 3090 it's own die, then giving the 4080 16GB, it's own die, but then 4080 12GB 4070 Ti it's own die, and it looks like several more under that.

Oh, I don’t disagree about AMD inflating names either. Calling the 7900XTX that is nuts, it’s a 7800XT. 7900XT shoulda been a 7800 probably.

This kinda stuff is why people start to feel there is an anti-trust case I think. You don’t see BMW trying to badge a 550i replacement as a M7 and hope no one notices.

 

[amenx]

Isn't that kind of why they did it? They are raising prices, that happens when costs go way up.

Also it seems that people want to arbitrarily think products should be named one way while conveniently ignoring that the x80 product has mostly been the full x104.

I have no doubt their costs went up. Just not a fan of deceptive moves to help them sell it.

 

[Heartbreaker]

I have no doubt their costs went up. Just not a fan of deceptive moves to help them sell it.

I don't consider naming fluff deceptive.

Pushing DLSS 3 fake frame rates as the real, is VERY misleading and deceptive. NVidia is pushing this message hard.

 

[Mopetar]

I never saw that as a criteria for all encompassing intelligence. Jensen is smart on the technical side of things, not necessary in all other things under the sun. He has other ppl taking care of the business and marketing side that helped grow Nvidia into the behemoth its become.

If these other people take care of the business and marketing then aren't they the ones who are stupid instead of Jensen?

You can't have it both ways and blame him for pricing on the current generation but discount everything that lead to them being able to charge what they are and still getting people to buy.

So I'll assume that the person running the multi-hundred billion dollar company knows a little bit more than a random forum poster. I can't say that I agree with the prices that NVidia is charging, but anyone calling Jensen dumb is just putting their own idiocy on display.

 

[amenx]

If these other people take care of the business and marketing then aren't they the ones who are stupid instead of Jensen?

You can't have it both ways and blame him for pricing on the current generation but discount everything that lead to them being able to charge what they are and still getting people to buy.

So I'll assume that the person running the multi-hundred billion dollar company knows a little bit more than a random forum poster. I can't say that I agree with the prices that NVidia is charging, but anyone calling Jensen dumb is just putting their own idiocy on display.

Not exactly saying that and I do think he is a brilliant individual overall. But sometimes even the most brilliant of ppl can flub things and I think he was the one behind the 4080 12gb screw up and reversal of it. Also I do think the pricing was very carefully thought out and makes perfect sense in light of the limited inventory released to allow for the clearance of Ampere (as stated in my last post). But when thats out of the way and large volumes of inventory begin to pour in, prices will have to be revised. And I do think its part of their plan since these cards were launched.

 

[Aapje]

If the 4070 Ti is performing like a 7900XT, who is really doing name inflation?

If you look at the specs, there is no name inflation, just a really poor performing product. Their name schema can be perfect reasonable if they can salvage the product with better drivers or a respin.

 

[jpiniero]

If you look at the specs, there is no name inflation, just a really poor performing product. Their name schema can be perfect reasonable if they can salvage the product with better drivers or a respin.

Is it really though? The raw specs are virtually identical to the 3090 Ti. And it's roughly 3090 Ti performance unless memory bandwidth becomes an issue. Which it does at 4K. I'm just not sure an extra 10-15% at 4K with GDDR7 would pacify the haters.

 

[Heartbreaker]

If you look at the specs, there is no name inflation, just a really poor performing product. Their name schema can be perfect reasonable if they can salvage the product with better drivers or a respin.

Of course. If Nvidia does something, it's because they are evil. AMD does the same thing, and it's just totally reasonable.

 

[rommelrommel]

I don’t know how you can say that AMD can both fairly call the 7900XTX that and call it a 4080 competitor.

A 7900XTX should be a 4090 ti competitor.

 

[Aapje]

Of course. If Nvidia does something, it's because they are evil. AMD does the same thing, and it's just totally reasonable.

I'm not saying that their current pricing is reasonable. I'm saying that it can become reasonable depending on what they do.

I don't see the same possibility for Nvidia.

 

[Mopetar]

People are buying Nvidia cards at the prices they're charging. Just because you yourself may not like them doesn't mean they're unreasonable. Any economic theory worth a damn would tell you that for a luxury item (no one needs a high-end GPU) that's being purchased is charging a reasonable price precisely because the market is freely consuming it.

While I do understand that not every statement needs to be prefaced with "in my personal opinion" as that's implied in most cases, or at least should be, some people can't wrap their head around the notion that not everyone thinks the same way they do and that they're not necessarily crazy for doing so.

 

[rommelrommel]

People are buying some, but that’s much different than the past. Generally these cards sell out at launch and are hard to get for a good while. The only sellout was the 4090 and that also was the only card with significant improvements at the price point. 4080/4070ti are getting comparatively little interest. Some people tho have been waiting since Pascal or longer and have just bit the bullet, some people are uninformed.

 

[gdansk]

People are buying Nvidia cards at the prices they're charging. Just because you yourself may not like them doesn't mean they're unreasonable. Any economic theory worth a damn would tell you that for a luxury item (no one needs a high-end GPU) that's being purchased is charging a reasonable price precisely because the market is freely consuming it.

While I do understand that not every statement needs to be prefaced with "in my personal opinion" as that's implied in most cases, or at least should be, some people can't wrap their head around the notion that not everyone thinks the same way they do and that they're not necessarily crazy for doing so.

It's only barely comprehensible if the purchaser has way too much money. Anyone paying $1600 for a gaming GPU should be taxed until they do not think it's a good idea anymore.

Of course, this is just my opinion.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

While I do understand that not every statement needs to be prefaced with "in my personal opinion" as that's implied in most cases, or at least should be, some people can't wrap their head around the notion that not everyone thinks the same way they do and that they're not necessarily crazy for doing so.

-It let's people know that the speaker acknowledges that their position is not certifiable fact but is indeed an opinion based on anecdotal life experience.

Without tone/context/body language/etc online discussions and especially forum discussions that are not happening in real time have developed idiosyncrasies to overcome the lack of standard cues we expect in face to face conversation.

 

[Aapje]

People are buying Nvidia cards at the prices they're charging.

Some will always sell, but they need to sell a lot of cards. The fewer cards they sell, the more heavily the very significant fixed costs weigh on them. Huge margins on relatively few sold products still means lower profits.

If they raise prices by a lot, some people will increase their budget (a gain for Nvidia), some people will upgrade less often but for the same budget per year (a wash for Nvidia) and some people will switch to other forms of gaming like consoles or will stop gaming altogether (a loss for Nvidia). For now the latter is less an issue because of poor PS5 availability, but Sony says that this will be fixed this year.

My estimate is that they are at a price level where their profits will be severely depressed compared to better prices, assuming that they keep these prices until the release of the 5000 series.

And all of this assumes monopolistic pricing, where there is no alternative for better prices. This may change.

 

[Heartbreaker]

My estimate is that they are at a price level where their profits will be severely depressed compared to better prices, assuming that they keep these prices until the release of the 5000 series.

It's hilarious that you think you know better how to maximize a companies profits, than their teams of analysts that have all the data, and are tasked with extracting the largest profit.

It doesn't matter if you love, hate, or are indifferent to AMD, or NVidia. They have all the data, and they have done this dance for decades. They know how to extract maximum profit from consumer better than you could imagine in your wildest dreams.

 

[rommelrommel]

It's hilarious that you think you know better how to maximize a companies profits, than their teams of analysts that have all the data, and are tasked with extracting the largest profit.

It doesn't matter if you love, hate, or are indifferent to AMD, or NVidia. They have all the data, and they have done this dance for decades. They know how to extract maximum profit from consumer better than you could imagine in your wildest dreams.

I mostly agree, but companies make lots of assumptions to figure out pricing. They aren’t infallible and there are lots of unprofitable products and mistakes made.

Then on top of this in most industries there’s a feedback loop, and your ability to extract more money today can lead to consumers avoiding your products tomorrow. NVIDIA gets away with it more than some due to minimal competition.

 

[Heartbreaker]

I mostly agree, but companies make lots of assumptions to figure out pricing. They aren’t infallible and there are lots of unprofitable products and mistakes made.

Then on top of this in most industries there’s a feedback loop, and your ability to extract more money today can lead to consumers avoiding your products tomorrow. NVIDIA gets away with it more than some due to minimal competition.

I didn't say they were infallible, just that forum armchair experts are laughable.

Generally, companies have near perfect field data on ongoing sales so they can fine tune in the field, and multiple releases of trying different angles as starting points, so they get pretty good at maximizing their profits.

Back in what we would call the good old days, they would start with FAT margins for the earlier adopters, and once sales slowed there would be modest cut, and further along maybe another, and finally a really decent clearance pricing at the end. It was like that for a lot of years.

But mining really wrecked everything, and it isn't so predictable anymore. But it seems to me in recent years I see less regular price cuts and good clearance deals on even non-mining tech. It's like the analytics companies are using are getting better at predicting the customer and extracting more profit from them.

We really can't compete with data, analytics and experience they have extracting max value from customers.

The phrase "Don't try to teach your Grandma to suck eggs" comes to mind.

 

[Aapje]

But mining really wrecked everything, and it isn't so predictable anymore.

Exactly, so all those analytics and experience that they build up during normal times doesn't work anymore. Thanks for agreeing.

 

[utahraptor]

Wish me luck, taking my system down to try and install this.