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Discussion Ada/'Lovelace'? Next gen Nvidia gaming architecture speculation

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It makes sense for Nvidia to start producing AD104 earlier anyway, to fill their contract obligations with TSMC, even while producing fewer AD102 and AD103 chips.

If I were Nvidia, I would delay the Ada launch as much as I can without being beaten to the punch by AMD, to clear the 3000 stock as much as possible, while already shipping chips to AID so they can build up stocks). Then release the new cards with a 2-4 week interval, to get that stock moving before pricing fall more (unless we are already deep in a 2nd hand glut, which is possible).
 
Problem is, we don't know where the glut is, if it's everything or if it's just GA102. Inventory of GA102 basically needs to be zero by the time they announce the 4080.
 
DooKey said:
Who to believe? Igor said HVM isn't starting till August/September time frame.

What the leaks about NVIDIA’s new cards are good for, what is true and why kopite7kimi sometimes seems to be “wrong” | igor'sLAB (igorslab.de)
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Just ignore the rumor mill IMO, it's ridiculous right now and so full of self contradictory information that no one can be right.

Also I don't get why Nvidia is trying to worm it's way out of the contract, as it doesn't look like it has any way to do so. TSMC is notorious for being a stickler to its contract rules, AMD looks like it's just barging ahead on its own schedule and could be really competitive with Nvidia, and a slow dump of mining cards looks like it's happening one way or another.

The only thing worse than paper launching on the high end before AMD if RDNA3 is good would be to wait it out. Imagine launching when your product isn't even press worthy anymore. If they really want to wait out any glut of mining cards they could stockpile dies in some clean warehouse and see if that ekes back some of their profit margin, but whatever way they slice it Nvidia looks like it might be in for a bad few quarters profitability wise.
 
Frenetic Pony said:
but whatever way they slice it Nvidia looks like it might be in for a bad few quarters profitability wise.
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How much of the "Gaming" revenue do you think the DIY sales are? You would think that OEM sales wouldn't be affected by any mining flood, although they could be cutting orders too.

One thing they could do is stick Ampere chips in a warehouse and gamble that mining returns at some point.
 
jpiniero said:
One thing they could do is stick Ampere chips in a warehouse and gamble that mining returns at some point.
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Aside from having to point out their inventory and stock on hands in their financial reports as Ajay pointed out, this would only possibility work if mining profitability goes crazy again AND no newer cards are actually much good at mining. With the heavy use of cache from both sides, the latter is possible, but it's still all very risky.
And those miners who calculate with being able to sell their cards on eventually probably wouldn't be that keen on last gen cards anyhow.
 
jpiniero said:
One thing they could do is stick Ampere chips in a warehouse and gamble that mining returns at some point.
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If rumors are true, imagine the irony of realizing that catering to miners for years has made them part of your business cycle. Good luck convincing gamers, during a recession, that they should upgrade to the latest and greatest after you left them squirming with bottom of the barrel cards for multiple seasons.

It's such a pity Intel screwed the pooch with their entry in the dGPU market, it would have been glorious to have them arrive early this summer and inject even more affordable cards before the end of the year.
 
Ajay said:
Till they have to explain the carrying charge (or whatever) in the next quarter's report. Investors will be thrilled - when they win their lawsuit.
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OK scratch that. I will say that I almost wonder if the issue isn't current inventory, but they also made purchase commitments to Samsung as well.

KompuKare said:
Aside from having to point out their inventory and stock on hands in their financial reports as Ajay pointed out, this would only possibility work if mining profitability goes crazy again AND no newer cards are actually much good at mining. With the heavy use of cache from both sides, the latter is possible, but it's still all very risky.
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Doesn't look like infinity cache helped RDNA 2's mining performance at all. It's looking like the 4080 and 4070 are going to have less memory bandwidth than the 3080 and 3070. So mining performance shouldn't be any better and could even be worse.
 
jpiniero said:
It's looking like the 4080 and 4070 are going to have less memory bandwidth than the 3080 and 3070. So mining performance shouldn't be any better and could even be worse.
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Can't believe I'm cheering for this. I'm sure there's some gaming and productivity scenario that will suffer and bite ourselves and NVidia in the ass later on though.
 
Infinity Cache isn't useful for any mining algorithm (e.g., ETH) that's designed to be memory bound. The memory access pattern is essentially random so the cache is just getting thrashed. A wider bus and faster memory will always perform better.

Personally, I'm fine with AMD cards being less optimal for mining. It puts a price cap on how much the actual retail price can inflate due to miners wanting the card.
 
igor_kavinski said:
With native PCIe 5.0 cards, they might do just that for the lower end SKUs.
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Good. Screw video cards completely then. Bring on the integrated stuff with fast DDR5. I'd get a good laugh watching miners try to fill their garage with motherboards and a single SOC onboard. "I make 50 cents per day everyday off my $10,000 investment. Ask me how."
 
biostud said:
And a performance "leak"
videocardz.com

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090 is reportedly 66% faster than RTX 3090 Ti in 3DMark Time Spy Extreme test - VideoCardz.com

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090 reportedly 66% faster than RTX 3090 Ti, 82% faster than RTX 3090 Kopite7kimi claims to have the first benchmark result from the upcoming NVIDIA RTX 4090 GPU. Over at Twitter, NVIDIA hardware leaker Kopite7kimi shared first benchmark result of flagship Ada GeForce RTX 4090...
videocardz.com videocardz.com
Click to expand...

If the 4090 is only 66% faster than the 3090, yeah, that might be a reason to cut orders. Because RDNA 3 would be much faster.
 
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