A four step guide to Global Warming

[Jaskalas]

October Bump.....look at those temps...

Nothing to see here? Or maybe this !@#$ just keeps going up and we need to act.

 

[Paratus]

October Bump.....look at those temps...

Nothing to see here? Or maybe this !@#$ just keeps going up and we need to act.

Depressing.

 

[nickqt]

It's going to snow this winter, so it's just a hoax or whatever.

 

[jmagg]

I have 12 pick up truck loads of leaves to clean up, which equates to 3.5 gallons of eth free premo fuel and 12 oz of oil in the Husky. We're eating less beef these days so Even Steven.

 

[desy]

So its happening and AGW is highly likely the cause. the debate is how severe, how to mitigate it

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

So its happening and AGW is highly likely the cause. the debate is how severe, how to mitigate it

You know, if we keep debating, eventually AGW will just kill us all, then we won't have to worry about it anymore.

 

[desy]

I didn't say endless debate I mean logical debate. IE does carbon credits actually do anything to thwart it?

 

[Brainonska511]

I didn't say endless debate I mean logical debate. IE does carbon credits actually do anything to thwart it?

It might have if we started in 2000. Since we've dicked around arguing about reality over the last 20 years instead of actually taking steps to mitigate our impact on the environment, we have to look to take more severe steps.

 

[nakedfrog]

October Bump.....look at those temps...

Nothing to see here? Or maybe this !@#$ just keeps going up and we need to act.

Oh, but no, the temperature has always fluctuated, this is normal, and even if it wasn't, we'll adapt anyway

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

It might have if we started in 2000. Since we've dicked around arguing about reality over the last 20 years instead of actually taking steps to mitigate our impact on the environment, we have to look to take more severe steps.

Gotta debate about what steps, and the legality of such steps as well, to ensure we someone's children have to take even more severe steps at some point in the future.

 

[Jaskalas]

Another El Nino, another step up?
Little early to determine where we land after, but this temperature spike is looking MEATY.
Oh, how we will long for the cold days of 2015-2023.....

 

[Muse]

This is fake news since we still have snow.

Fact: I have not seen snow in person since the winter of 1964. I think "snow" in the 21st century is a conspiracy theory.

 

[fskimospy]

Another El Nino, another step up?
Little early to determine where we land after, but this temperature spike is looking MEATY.
Oh, how we will long for the cold days of 2015-2023.....

I'm not sure if you missed it but several years back we already reached the point where conservatives switched from 'it's not happening' to 'we waited too long so now nothing can be done'.

 

[Muse]

I thought it was called climate change now.

I prefer the term global warming crisis. The word "crisis" is crucial.

 

[Muse]

For those good at math, I had 25,000 posts before the Like system was instituted. I'm also not an MSM-programmed sheep so many here aren't going to agree with my views.

Your views are short sighted. I have nothing for you other than an admonition to recalibrate completely.

 

[Jaskalas]

I'm not sure if you missed it but several years back we already reached the point where conservatives switched from 'it's not happening' to 'we waited too long so now nothing can be done'.

Smart opponents may be gearing up to move the goalpost, but their followers are still devout adherents to the original.

"It is too late" is a much more interesting argument than "it is not real".
For example, while I would vote for CO2 reductions, I do not anticipate humanity doing enough to actually avoid the dire consequences. Especially not after having entered a new era of total warfare.

 

[fskimospy]

Smart opponents may be gearing up to move the goalpost, but their followers are still devout adherents to the original.

Oh I'm sure there are still plenty of crazies who think it's a communist plot or whatever but in my experience at least I've definitely seen some movement towards 'it's real but now it's too late'. Of course these people do not want to take any responsibility for, you know, why it might be 'too late'.

"It is too late" is a much more interesting argument than "it is not real".
For example, while I would vote for CO2 reductions, I do not anticipate humanity doing enough to actually avoid the dire consequences. Especially not after having entered a new era of total warfare.

I wouldn't agree with that exactly because global temps are on a continuum. Like is 2C bad? Absolutely! Almost certainly less bad than 3C or 4C though! For that reason reductions are still good even if we screwed around for about a half century too long at least. There is some positive news too - there is evidence of decoupling growth from carbon emissions. We still have a long way to go but this is positive news.

The relationship between growth in GDP and CO2 has loosened; it needs to be cut completely – Analysis - IEA

The relationship between growth in GDP and CO2 has loosened; it needs to be cut completely - A commentary by Siddharth Singh

www.iea.org

 

[Jaskalas]

There is some positive news too - there is evidence of decoupling growth from carbon emissions. We still have a long way to go but this is positive news.

Wait a minute.
Is this article claiming the global CO2 emissions have already peaked?
Is that how the data is supposed to be read?

 

[fskimospy]

Wait a minute.
Is this article claiming the global CO2 emissions have already peaked?
Is that how the data is supposed to be read?

Sadly no, what it is basically saying is that in the past GDP growth and CO2 emissions tracked each other relatively closely. Like a 10% increase in GDP meant a 10% increase in CO2. That's problematic because it indicated that in order for people's lives to improve further we needed to cook the planet.

The good news here is that US CO2 emissions peaked in 2007. The economy has grown considerably since but US CO2 emissions have declined back to where they were in 1990. For developing countries they haven't started declining yet but now instead of like 10% GDP = 10% CO2 it's like 10%GDP = 5%CO2.

So for developed countries the trend is actually very positive. For developing it's more like it's less negative. Overall emissions still increasing though.

 

[manly]

I'm not a scientist, but the following sounds pretty bad.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/20/climate/doomsday-glacier-melt-antarctica-climate-intl/index.html

 

[Jaskalas]

I'm not a scientist, but the following sounds pretty bad.

Speaking of which....
Is our sat data broken, or did we just spike the football REALLY far this past year?
Global warming is... off the charts?

 

[Paratus]

Speaking of which....
Is our sat data broken, or did we just spike the football REALLY far this past year?
Global warming is... off the charts?

That’s a hell of a spike.

I’m curious what the ocean heat content looked like for this year. I’m pretty sure that spike was being fueled mostly from OHC being brought to the surface via where we are in the ENSO cycle.

If that was the case there should be a small dip or flat-lining of the increase in OHC since a bunch of heat got dumped into the atmosphere.

Unfortunately some of NOAAs websites are still down following Helene, including the OHC data.

 

[Jaskalas]

Couple of notes. While I've made older posts with the graph, most of them are links to the live data set. Not a static or unchanging image. They won't serve for comparing snapshots.

Second, our temperature increase continues to trend upwards at a faster rate. An exponential gain as higher CO2 PPM pushes the acceleration.

 

[manly]

Speaking of which....
Is our sat data broken, or did we just spike the football REALLY far this past year?
Global warming is... off the charts?

The people collecting such data are typically career "civil servants." I don't think they are incentivized to fudge the data.

That’s a hell of a spike.

I’m curious what the ocean heat content looked like for this year. I’m pretty sure that spike was being fueled mostly from OHC being brought to the surface via where we are in the ENSO cycle.

If that was the case there should be a small dip or flat-lining of the increase in OHC since a bunch of heat got dumped into the atmosphere.

Unfortunately some of NOAAs websites are still down following Helene, including the OHC data.

So ironically, shipping particulate pollution was reduced starting a few years ago and that seems to have led to the noticeable uptick in ocean temps the past two years.

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/14/nx-s1-5051849/hot-oceans-climate-science

 

[Paratus]

The people collecting such data are typically career "civil servants." I don't think they are incentivized to fudge the data.



So ironically, shipping particulate pollution was reduced starting a few years ago and that seems to have led to the noticeable uptick in ocean temps the past two years.

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/14/nx-s1-5051849/hot-oceans-climate-science

That’s been going on for a while. Reduction in sulfur based and particulate pollution does increase temperatures because those types of pollution tend to reflect sunlight back to space.

Of course they also cause acid rain and lung problems.

Mostly what I wanted to see was the interplay between atmospheric temperature and ocean heat content. They’ll both continue to increase but I think the increasing stair step pattern of atmospheric warming is being driven by the ocean storing the heat for a few years and then releasing some back to the atmosphere based on the ENSO pattern.