I think there is more to it than, "Anyway 2012 is too early to really talk about anything, but I guarantee she won't make it through the primaries, some far more competent guy who's older will eat her up and spit her out."
While I do agree anyone who is competent will eat Palin alive but that could equally apply to someone younger or older, be they or male or female.
The point being Sarah Palin, after being picked by McCain, discovered a demagogic talent she never knew she had. And as she had the entire Republican convention in the palm of her hand as she recited her drill baby drill speech, its acted as a powerful narcotic addiction she has never recovered from. In short, Palin discovered just how far playing to her strong suit could get her.
The problem for Palin is, she has done nothing to shore up her weaknesses, even after discovering her strong suit is not enough to get her enough votes to win. Making her a one trick pony, and voted most likely to be viewed as a uni dimensional
political lightweight able to compete only in the arenas she can define with slogans. As soon as we leave those arenas and deal with real issues, Palin shows her incompetence.
The person who ran the masterful campaign in 2008 was Obama. With Obama perhaps exceeding Palin in natural demagogic talent.
And instead of playing to that demagogic talent, Obama downplayed it while avoiding polarizing slogans like the plague. And the person who badly underestimated Obama was Hillary Clinton, who was the odds on favorite to win the 2008 democratic nomination. Nor was that the Iraq war Hillary had cast the only deciding factor, it was really, IMHO, the aspect that Hillary campaigned on the contention that Obama was not ready and hence unqualified.
And in a sense, Hillary was far better prepared on the issues and knew them far better than Obama. But until Hillary played to the issues, the Obama lead widened.
Once Hillary played to the issues, she started to cut into the Obama lead, but by then, it was too little far to late.
A lesson Palin might take to heart, but its clear Palin has refused to learn anything.